The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
porotisays: Monday, July 12, 2021 at 1:43 pm
Simon Katich
Refreshingly honest BUT a bit disturbing. Such is the state of US society that it is socially acceptable to very publicly declare oneself a greedy selfish bastard and shit on the poor .
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Character on the show “Justified” – a lawman in dirt poor Kentucky
‘ I hate it here. Kentucky. I hate every one of these toothless, banjo strumming, red neck pricks.’
Simon Katich says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:08 pm
The issue of how to claw back the regions from the Coalition is not a matter of a ‘snipe-fest’.
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To claw back means that you once had the regions. It’s like Liberals asking when will they claw back Footscray?
Pfizer’s board includes one former US government official.
Laura Tingle tweeted Pfizer press release without comment.. 7.30 report here we come.
Do we get a walk-off from Hunt?
Dr Krispy Oz Flag of AustraliaRainbow flagMicrobeFace with medical maskMicroscopeSyringe
@KrispyOz31
·
4m
Laura Tingle: “Kevin Rudd played no role in contractual agreements.”
Kevin Rudd: “I played no role in contractual agreements.”
MSM: “Tingle/Rudd say Rudd played role in contractual agreements?”
Pfizer: “Kevin Rudd played no role in contractual agreements.”
Comical stuff! Rolling on the floor laughing
Newsltd /other lib/nats propaganda media units with Morrison and his cronies continue to show they have no intentions of playing bipartisanship – but will only use this corona virus pandemic for partisan political point scoring
@RDNS_TAI tweets
Neoliberalism has always been about blaming the individual for policy choices of government. Blame the unemployed for the lack of jobs, blame the poor for their lack of education, and now blame the sick for their lack of vaccination…FFS #auspol #Covid19
lizzie @ #346 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:07 pm
Remember the reports from the UK that they thought Morrison a neanderthal knuckle headed climate denier (Tingle on Philip Adams).
Anyway, Greg Hunt thinking you’re a ‘great guy’ means what exactly?
Laura Tingle on ABC 24 now
SK –
Oh, I definitely agree with you on that. I think in my anguish at the outcome of the 2019 election I posted here quite a few factors in play that I thought were significant, of which the convoy was only one. Palmer, death tax lies, confused messaging about pensioners and franking credits, Shorten himself, somehow the media (and the ALP really) allowing Morrison to play opposition leader instead of him being held to account for being leader of a 6 year old government, etc.
It is a wonder of our politics, really. But I imagine the answer lies both in careful framing of the relationship over many many years by the L/NP – oh those crazy Nats but we Libs are sensible and will look after your finances don’t you know just ignore that Barnaby fellow – along with the clear split in the targeted demographics. The ALP and Greens frequently are squabbling over the same territory and need to appeal to similar cohorts of voters, whereas for the most part the coalition can successfully run a Nationals voice for the regions and a Liberals voice for the cities and paper over any inconsistency.
Personally I would think that having more – smaller – viable parties that don’t have to perform such acrobatic feats to tie themselves in knots to satisfy such diverse voting bases is the logical answer, but … the Australian public seems resistant to supporting any new political parties.
Don’t want to spoil a good story but the Rudd/Pfizer story has Rudd’s ego written all over it.
The announcements by both Pfizer and the Australian Government make it pretty negations have been held by very senior people from both parties for a while. Hunt advised he has been having weekly meetings with the head of Pfizer in Australia for some time.
Jackol
The answer is fairly obvious.
Labor talks about the Greens like the Liberals do about the Nationals.
The whole the Green scare by Labor, extreme toxic etc just helps the LNP scare campaigns.
Jackol says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:20 pm
The ALP and Greens frequently are squabbling over the same territory and need to appeal to similar cohorts of voters, whereas for the most part the coalition can successfully run a Nationals voice for the regions and a Liberals voice for the cities and paper over any inconsistency.
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Strange. I could have sworn that for decades the Liberals had been eating up Nationals seats across the country.
The Greens are only serious contenders for a small number of seats, some traditionally held by Labor, some traditionally held by the Liberals.
davidwh:
My first reaction to the Rudd/Pfizer story last night was that Rudd’s been whispering to journos again.
Fess yes. Anything to feed Rudd’s ego.
boerwar @ #333 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 1:56 pm
I mean it may not really translate into as many seats as it appears it will. It’s actually a pretty good result for Labor and quite a few seats in the south east may be lost to the LNP
lizzie @ #346 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:07 pm
Boss of a department is the Secretary. Next level down would be deputy secretaries. Level below that would be the first assistant secretaries. So Hunt has actually confirmed the situation reported.
Regardless of who signed off on contracts, the story lingers that business groups felt compelled to approach Rudd about expediting vaccine supplies from Pfizer, and what that implies about confidence in the Government’s dealings with Pfizer.
I cant help compare it to how the Nationals nutters do not seem to lose the Liberals seats in urban areas
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If you watch the Liberals closely they put away the cultural wars during election campaigns and about the economy because they know that most people in the seats that matter are focused on what directly effects them and the Nationals probably contribute to the Liberals being unable to pick up a seat like McNamara which statistically could be a Liberal seat.
Jackol @ #359 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:20 pm
True. Australia is quite a conservative nation. As a general rule, we really don’t want change.
‘lizzie says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:07 pm
…
Hunt’s response, that a first assistant secretary was doing it, and he was a great guy, is probably true, but it doesn’t seem to actually address the concern that, if Australia wanted more doses, why it wasn’t using every diplomatic means necessary?
…’
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If you are the head of a major multi national, a senior bureaucrat would be someone like a Secretary or a Deputy Secretary. A First Assistant Secretary is the third rung down and fourth rung down if you count Minister Hunt.
In any case, no First Assistant Secretary would be making independent negotiating decisions on a billion dollar negotiation that potentially had hundred billion dollar economic consequences.
The FAS would have gone with a negotiating brief with a range of outcomes PRE-APPROVED by Minister Hunt who would certainly have got Morrison’s approval before proceeding.
The real answer here is that because this was a national crisis with critical national consequences, the MINISTER should have been leading the negotiations.
As for whether the FAS behaved in a devious and/or bullying fashion: s/he may merely have been aping the standard behaviours of the most corrupt federal government since Federation.
What could possibly have gone wRONg?
Poroti:
The USA, as well as Canada, UK and Australia, are more corporatocracy than oligarchy.
This has been for many years – at least since 1945.
I recommend John Ralston Saul – “Doubters’ Companion”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporatocracy
Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:29 pm
but the Nationals probably contribute to the Liberals being unable to pick up a seat like McNamara which statistically could be a Liberal seat.
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Now that’s a unique argument!
@PRGuy17 tweets
Oops! Remember the Pfizer meeting that “didn’t happen”? Greg Hunt says it was a very senior government representative who attended it. What happened to it didn’t happen?
ajm
Thanks.
Wally “I don’t hold the phone, mate – (unless it is for a mate)..
Laura Tingle in ABC24
‘Frankly, the question that comes out of it is, is why was it sort of OK for the former Prime Minister to ring up Pfizer globally but apparently our Prime Minister and Health Minister thought it was fine to just deal with the Australian branch at a time when we know some of the world leaders including the former Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu personally negotiated with Pfizer and a number of other companies to make sure that his country had enough vaccines.
ItzaDream yes at least one unnamed business leader.
davidwh @ #360 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:24 pm
While I agree with you about Rudd’s ego 🙂 what good would having weekly meetings with “the head of Pfizer in Australia” do? You would need to go much higher than that to have any effect.
davidwh says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:24 pm
Don’t want to spoil a good story but the Rudd/Pfizer story has Rudd’s ego written all over it.
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Yes Rudd did state in his letter , he was not representing the government he has no say in the contractual agreements .
Rudd letter is proving that Newsltd and other lib/nats propaganda media units and Morrison and his cronies only want the political advantage
have no interest in playing bipartisanship during a pandemic crisis
One of the reasons the Nats and Libs don’t compete in seats in the regions is that the preference leakage to other parties is quite high.
Mexican, I would love for you to be on an election night panel on TV some time. The insights would be astounding!
I expect a lot of people will be calling Pfizer now, to become heroes.
Another ABC report goes off tangent. This time from Laura Tingle. Just because you wish it to be true, doesn’t always mean it is.
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:34 pm
One of the reasons the Nats and Libs don’t compete in seats in the regions is that the preference leakage to other parties is quite high.
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Wrong. They don’t compete in seats because they have an agreement not to stand against sitting members.
Recon
McNamara is demographically a Liberal seat but remains a solid ALP marginal because the Liberals continue to dismiss inner city types to keep the Nationals on side.
Coogee in GladysLockdown today..
https://mobile.twitter.com/nobby15/status/1414440134645145607/video/1
ajm
Cf junior bureaucrat our posts crossed so we can but agree with each other.
It is actually sad that Rudd’s letter shows how pathetically low and narcissistic Newsltd, other libs/nats propaganda media units and Morison with his cronies , playing politics with people lives during a virus pandemic
In among the weekend political commentary somebody offered the view that Morrison deeply distrusts Hunt.
Hunt was after all Dutton’s running mate. I would suspect he is no fan of Morrison either.
Makes for constructive decision making at the highest level.
Not.
spr
We’re fucked.
@paulkidd tweets
How lucky we are to have public figures going hammer and tongs about who leaked a letter while millions of people are in lockdown due to the utter debacle of a vaccine rollout they have comprehensively mismanaged.
Gee, ‘michael ’ and ‘recon’ have multiple windows open on ‘nath’ IT setup – perhaps they are bots?
One step away from ‘Great job, Angus!’
The strongest correlation with Trump voting is not income level but education level.
The less educated, the more likely to vote for Trump. Its a very strong correlation.
On the subject of Australian voters, can we be honest. There are a lot of intellectually challenged, emotionally driven voters.
It may not be socially acceptable to say this, but sadly it is true. Understanding and responding to this problem means having a clear and honest assessment. Do you play to their emotions? Do you attempt to educate them? The answer is it depends. We just need to deal with reality.
Reminds me of that scene from Blazing Saddles..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KHJbSvidohg
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:34 pm
One of the reasons the Nats and Libs don’t compete in seats in the regions is that the preference leakage to other parties is quite high.’
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Plus to compete they have to diss each other AND split the available election campaign resources. It is probably a major explanation for how they lost in Eden Monaro in the last by-election.
sprocket_ says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:36 pm
Coogee in GladysLockdown today..
https://mobile.twitter.com/nobby15/status/1414440134645145607/video/1
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This only helps Victor Dominello case against Gladys when/If there is a liberal party leadership challenge or gladys is forced to give her leadership up, before the upcoming NSW state election
The Greens V Labor battle can be boiled down to this:
The Greens are allowed to hate on Labor but Labor aren’t allowed to hate on The Greens.
One of the reasons they have non compete clauses is the leakage of votes to other parties would be far higher than would be comfortable. It would be embarrassing.
It’s like the Greens never preference against Labor because voters simply ignore the ticket and peference Labor.
sprocket_ @ #383 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:36 pm
The leadership just doesn’t command respect.
Rudd, once again, confirms that he has to be the biggest wanker in Australia.
I look forward to Turnbull trying to Out-wanker him.
I’m impressed by the numbers of PBAnon participants who have the experience and intricate knowledge of how high level contractual negotiations are done between large corporations and governments.
spr
The main thing is that they were not browsing, they were not masking, and they were being careful to keep well-within 1.5 m of each other.
C@tmomma @ #393 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:40 pm
About $5 million per election in AEC funding.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:36 pm
Recon
McNamara is demographically a Liberal seat but remains a solid ALP marginal because the Liberals continue to dismiss inner city types to keep the Nationals on side.
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You are off your head mate. Melbourne Ports was a Labor seat since 1906. It was trending marginal for a while, that’s about it.