The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
Yes how terrible the letter was leaked and published when we are in the middle of a very serious situation.
Cat
Your comment is part of the problem.
The Greens don’t hate Labor. They should the way some in Labor attack them.
Bucephalus says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:42 pm
I look forward to Turnbull trying to Out-wanker him.
——————
Turnbull has already attacked Morrison and his cronies
Bucephalus @ #396 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:42 pm
I’d be happy if our government had such ‘experience and intricate knowledge’. The available evidence says otherwise.
I expect Fuller will be sending some uniforms to Coogee now …?
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:40 pm
One of the reasons they have non compete clauses is the leakage of votes to other parties would be far higher than would be comfortable. It would be embarrassing.
________________________
They have a non compete clause to preserve the stability of the Coalition, particularly in government. I wouldn’t imagine that they would be concerned about preference leaking in too many seats where there is likely to be a National and Liberal candidate.
Of course, when a sitting member retires, it’s open slather.
Important to remember that the denial is from the Australian rep of Pfizer. It is the middle of the night in America which is where I believe the head with o f Pfizer international is.
guytaur @ #401 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 12:44 pm
How would you know one way or the other?
Are you a member of either Party?
davidwh @ #400 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:44 pm
Rudd needs to just go away …far, far away .. and give Albanese some clean air.
This letter highlights yet another chicken coming home to roost for the LNP.
One that they will struggle to wriggle away from.
Recon
That proves my point because the seat is an increasingly wealthy electorate with a growing Liberal vote and had Turnbull been more successful in tackling climate change the seat would might have gone Liberal but he didn’t because he was trying to carry favor with the Nationals.
Rex Douglas @ #408 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:48 pm
I am not a Rudd fan – but he has done more good for Labor in just one day than Albanese has managed to do in a year.
one very senior Australian businessman — whose identity is known to the ABC but who wishes to remain anonymous — held two meetings with senior Pfizer executives in late June, only to be rebuffed.
Senior Pfizer executives told the businessman that if Australia was to make a more serious effort, after its treatment at the hands of relatively junior bureaucrats, it would have to come from much higher up, expressing their astonishment that Prime Minister Scott Morrison had not directly spoken to the Pfizer chairman and chief executive Albert Bourla, as former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had done on multiple occasions.
The executives suggested that, in the absence of Mr Morrison, former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd — who was known to them because of his work in the United States as head of the New York-based Asia Society — may have some influence.
The network of businessmen contacted Mr Rudd and set up an introduction to Dr Bourla. A Zoom meeting was arranged on June 30. Mr Rudd sent a text message to Mr Morrison to tell him he was going to make the call, making clear he would be representing himself as a concerned Australian and not in any way as an emissary from the government.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-11/kevin-rudd-australia-covid-pfizer-vaccine-supply-senior-execs/100284902
Barney
80% of Greens party preferences speaks volumes.
No amount of spinning about Greens politicians changes that self interest.
Player One says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:45 pm
Witty repartee doesn’t replace the fact that the LNP has been in Government since 2013 and has significant experience.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:49 pm
Recon
That proves my point because the seat is demographically an increasingly wealthy electorate with a growing Liberal vote and had Turnbull been more successful in tackling climate change the seat would probably have gone Liberal but he didn’t because he was trying to carry favor with the Nationals.
________________
It was trending Liberal for a little while because traditional working class Labor voting people were moving out or dying. But they have been replaced by Greens voters in considerable numbers now.
There are enough lunatics in the Liberal party for them to alienate inner city voters without needing the spectre of the Country Party to push them away.
guytaur @ #413 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 12:50 pm
That speaks for their voters, but says nothing about their Party members.
Two very different things.
Bucephalus @ #414 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:50 pm
At what? Defamation suits, sex scandals and misogyny are all that spring readily to mind.
Bucephalus @ #414 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:50 pm
Ah the old one: 13 years experience or one years experience 13 times
Barney
I followed Paul Keating’s advice. Back self interest. Why are you going against it?
and rorting of the public purse!
Recon
The Greens are strong around St Kilda and that is why the purposed state seat of Prahran looks a safe Green seat but the Greens are someway off winning McNamara and didn’t get the boost from Windsor at the last election and that looks like its been removed.
@TheShoevel tweets
It feels like 2007 again. Kevin Rudd is in the headlines, England haven’t won a major tournament in decades and Scott Morrison is head of a marketing organisation
Player One @ #417 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:53 pm
All acceptable standards of a Coalition partisan.
The publicity Rudd letter has received seems to be annoying Dutton and other Morrison cronies for some reason , is Rudd’s letter that much of a threat to them ,for posting childish replies.
why would members of government act like this , if they were not using a virus pandemic to play partisan political point scoring
Player One @ #403 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:15 pm
Well, client relationship execs are paid big bucks for big reasons. The ability to take negotiations up a few levels is gold. If Rudd had the connections to open doors and help, in some way, bring forward vaccinations then I will excuse the ego and say – bloody well done that man. As I am sure everyone other than Morrisons inner circle would say.
guytaur @ #419 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 12:55 pm
Of course Labor becoming the Government and dealing with the major issues could make the Greens irrelevant.
guytaur @ #422 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:27 pm
No comment, just want this to appear again on the thread.
Simon Katich @ #425 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 3:02 pm
Agreed. But the real story here – the one that clearly has the Liberals panicking – is not what Rudd may or may not have achieved, it is that they had not even tried.
Barney
Easy said. Hope it happens.
Most of the Labor partisans on this blog disagree with you.
What we do know is it’s the fossil fuel industry that’s going to be irrelevant
In hindsight i do not think Newsltd or Morrison and his cronies expected Turnbull and Rudd to team up to be this much of a threat , which they are now to them
Attn Vics
guytaur @ #429 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 1:06 pm
Your self interest point would suggest that the Greens would not want this to happen.
I guess the only offensive action Newsltd and Morrison could do to fight against Turnbull , is to bring Abbott back
Victorian update live on ABC news 24 now
Barney
No. The Greens self interest is for fossil fuel industries to be irrelevant.
Your suggestion is just wrong.
I’m impressed by the numbers of PBAnon participants who have the experience and intricate knowledge of how high level contractual negotiations are done between large corporations and governments.
Yeah yeah, what SK said.
One doesn’t just pony up and purchase a few hundred million dollars of anything off-the-shelf.
guytaur @ #434 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 3:10 pm
2 incursions from NSW.
”
guytaursays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 12:25 pm
BW
You love the culture wars as an excuse to attack the Greens.
Guess what. Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull are not Green Party figures.
Big Fail on this one.
”
Did you have chance to read post of Quoll. He/she seems to hate Labor more than LNP. A traditional Greenie doesn’t hate Labor like that because 85 % of Greens preferences go to Labor. That person is either troll or a a Commie.
guytaur @ #435 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 1:11 pm
😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆
Tell that to a Green Senator.
Ven
Yes this could be so.
There are bad actors claiming to be Green just as there are bad actors claiming to be Labor.
No doubt there are some bad actors claiming to be LNP too.
🙂
Barney
Your response says more about you than Greens Senators
From the Guardian
He is running. I look forward to the details of these meetings. Were they as cosy, warm and extensive as his meeting with Biden?
The extent of Morrison’s Pfizer connections:
a) “I’ve spoken to the head of Pfizer in Australia”.
b) Scott Morrison also says he met with a senior Pfizer executive when he was in Europe for meetings after the G7 summit.
(guardian)
Pfizer’s market capitalization is around $US220 billion.
You don’t get that big without having serious negotiating skills.
They were negotiating direct with many dozens of states – with the latter being the desperate mendicants.
It rather sounds as if Morrison/Hunt moved seamlessly from pissing off China to pissing off Pfizer.
Removalists who came to Vic and tested positive – Jeroen says their stories aren’t tying up.
So infuriating.
Jackol:
Absolutely correct, IMO. The convoy had a negative effect, no doubt, but it was just one among many things that led to that miserable result.
In general, we have a bad habit in this country of reducing elections to just one or two issues. The GST Election, the Tampa election, the Workchoices election. 2019 is already shaping up to be remembered as the Franking Credits Election (or the Adani Convoy Election.) The reality is usually a lot more messy.
All excellent points.
I think one big difference is that the Nationals appear to have the self-awareness to realise that they are politically toxic in many parts of the country that the Liberals need to win in, and know when to shut the fuck up and get out of the way. Whatever their squabbles, come election time they will put their differences aside and focus on the main game – keeping Labor out of office.
SK,
Did they go on his pub crawl around Cornwall?
Dandy Murray @ #436 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 3:11 pm
F-35’s?
“…the LNP has been in Government since 2013 and has significant experience.”
At what?