Family First the second

Fragmentation on the right continues apace, with even former Labor folk now joining in. Also: a new poll records a big thumbs-down for the weekend’s lockdown protests.

Miscellaneous developments of the week so far:

• Former South Australian state Labor MPs Tom Kenyon and Jack Snelling have quit their former party over “moves to restrict religious freedom” and announced their intention to reactivate the Family First party and field candidates at the state election next March. The original Family First was folded into Australian Conservatives when Cory Bernardi joined it in 2016 and wound up at his behest after its failure at the 2019 federal election. Kenyon and Snelling have long been associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association sub-faction of the Right, which is in turn associated with Catholicism and social conservatism, and includes among its number the party’s state leader, Peter Malinauskas. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports this has the approval of party co-founder Andrew Evans; presumably this explains it obtaining the old party’s database of 6000 supporters, as reported by David Penberthy of The Australian. Whereas the old party consistently directed preferences to the Liberals, Snelling has ruled out preference deals with either major party.

• In other party split news, Peta Credlin writes in The Australian that Ross Cameron, who held Parramatta for the Liberals from 1996 to 2004 but is these days noted as a staple of Sky News after dark, “could head the Liberal Democrats’ NSW Senate ticket”. Earlier reportage on the matter said only that Cameron was involved with the party’s strategy and candidate recruitment.

• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports Matt Burnell, an official with the Right faction Transport Workers Union, has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for its safe northern Adelaide seat of Spence, which will be vacated with Nick Champion’s move to state politics. Burnell reportedly scored 88 union delegate votes and 68 state conference delegate votes, each amounting to a third of the total, to just two and seven respectively for rival candidate Alice Dawkins, daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The rank-and-file membership ballot that made up the remaining third went 140-42 to Burnell.

• Peter Law of The West Australian reports that first-term Liberal MP Vince Connelly, whose seat of Stirling is being abolished, “looks certain to contest Cowan, which is held by Labor’s Anne Aly”. By my reckoning, the seat has a post-redistribution margin of 1.5%, making it a seemingly unlikely prospect for the Liberals at a time when polls are pointing to a Labor swing in the state upwards of 10%.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports a poll conducted on Monday by Utting Research from 1600 respondents in New South Wales found only 7% supported Saturday’s lockdown protests, with fully 83% opposed. The poll also suggested Scott Morrison’s standing is continuing to tumble, with 37% satisfied and 57% dissatisfied (the state breakdown in last fortnight’s Resolve Strategic poll had it at 46% apiece). By contrast, Gladys Berejiklian maintained 56% approval and 33% disapproval, while the state’s chief health officer, Kerry Chant, recorded 70% approval.

• Emma Dawson, the executive director of the Per Capita think tank who appeared set to ran as Labor’s candidate against Adam Bandt in Melbourne, has announced her withdrawal. Dawson said this was for “personal and professional reasons”, although it followed shortly upon her criticism of Labor’s announcement that it would not rescind tax cuts for high income earners if elected.

• Craig Emerson on election timing in the Financial Review:

The December quarter national accounts are scheduled for release on March 2, 2022. Morrison might feel confident that the economy will bounce back in the December quarter from the September quarter’s negative result. But would it be wise to take a chance on a double-dip recession being announced during a federal election campaign? That would be a catastrophe for the Morrison government: marked down for its refusal to accept responsibility for quarantine, presiding over the slowest vaccine rollout in the Western world, and forfeiting any claim to be superior economic managers … But an April or May election would face the same risks, since the March quarter national accounts would not be released until after the election must be held … A late-February election might be the best bet, though the federal campaign would overlap with that of the South Australian state election scheduled for March 19.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,483 comments on “Family First the second”

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  2. Dr Chant said that elderly people will “bear the brunt” of COVID-19 unless vaccination rates improve, adding that one dose of the vaccine alone can reduce an individual’s risk of hospitalisation and death.

    “We need to get those vaccines up. While the advice is for anyone over 18 to consider AstraZeneca, the fact is we haven’t got levels of coverage high enough in the elderly,” she said.

    The majority of the 13 deaths recorded in the current outbreak have been in those aged in their 80s and 90s.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/some-infected-sydneysiders-delay-medical-treatment-with-fatal-results-20210730-p58efl.html

    The oldies need to get with the program. The risk of clotting for them is something like one in 7 million vs the risk of death or hospitalisation from Covid which is much much lower.

    And there’s no guarantee they’ll get a Pfizer vaccine before the country is projected to reach that mooted 80% vaccinated in January 2022.

  3. Socrates

    Your suggestions for party names for conservative rats from mainstream parties in SA:
    1. Families Second Party
    2. Billionaires First Party
    3. Fascist Theocrats Party

    Any of them beats “Liberal and Country League” which was mentioned in the article.

    How combining Family First and the Liberals to end up with “Liberal Families”? Maybe that isn’t quite the impression they are trying to give 😛

  4. Steve77

    depending upon “how the nation responds to the challenge’.

    Indeed it is pure Scotty. I gave you a fantastic plan, a failure will be your responsibility.

  5. By Tom Bateman • Updated: 29/07/2021 – 16:06
    Patients developed blood clotting conditions after receiving the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine at a “similar” rate to those who received the Pfizer/BioNTech jab, say researchers.

    A team of researchers from Spain, the UK and the Netherlands compared data from over 1.3 million people vaccinated against COVID in Catalonia, looking for evidence of blood clotting conditions that developed after they received their vaccinations.

    “In this study including 1,372,213 people vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, similar safety profiles were seen for both vaccines,” the researchers wrote in their pre-print paper, which has not been peer-reviewed.

    Crucially, the study authors found that people who had been infected with COVID-19 developed blood clots at a far higher rate than those who had received either of the AstraZeneca or Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines.

    https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/07/29/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-blood-clot-risk-similar-to-pfizer-spanish-study-finds

    And again ABC news does a summary of the position & mentions low risk with AZ BUT makes no mention that Pfizer is near identical … maybe the ABC has links to some of PB pfizer boosters. Half truths do not help in increasing the vaccine rate

  6. Cud Chewer @ #1204 Friday, July 30th, 2021 – 6:11 pm

    Is this 80% of ‘ellligible”?

    If so, bullshit.

    So with ~82% of the population being “eligible adults” that translates to a ~57% of population threshold for phase “B” and ~67% for phase “C”. Still well below the herd immunity threshold of 80% to 90%. (Given the R0 for Delta is in the range of 5 to 9.5).

    And the standard (1-1/R0) calculation for herd immunity doesn’t take into account that vaccinated people are still capable of spreading the virus. The UK is probably the closest proxy for how that will pan out. It looks like Delta will get a run everywhere sooner to later.

  7. Re vaccines. I think Novavax when it arrives could be promising. They are doing trials of combined COVID/flu vaccinations and it could be manufactured here by CSL I think. Plus it is a “safer” technology and more effective than AZ -I don’t understand all the details but I think the vaccine consists mainly of the COVID spike protein.

    There is a company in SA, a Flinders Uni spin out, called Vaxine that is developing a COVID vaccine using a similar protein technology to Novavax. It’s running Phase 3 trials in Iran. It got a minuscule amount of funding from the Fed govt last year but why they didn’t put more funding in after the UQ vaccine fail I don’t know.

    I think this time next year AZ will be restricted to developing nations that haven’t rolled out their first round of shots yet.

  8. Morrison has slightly altered “the captain went down with the ship” to “the captain wafted away in a hot air balloon while the passengers went down with the ship”.

  9. Ven @ #1248 Friday, July 30th, 2021 – 7:16 pm

    ”
    Lars Von Triersays:
    Friday, July 30, 2021 at 6:30 pm
    I suspect Australian vaccination rates will be about as big an issue as Brittany Higgins in National politics come October.
    ”

    Read your statement again and what does it say about LNP mindset?

    Everything you need to know about this person.

  10. 70% of eligible population is ~14,250,000 being double vaccinated meaning Australia will only need to vaccinate an additional 9,000,000 people to reach the ~90% of total population for herd immunity.

    80% of eligible population is ~16,250,000 being double vaccinated meaning Australia will only need to vaccinate an additional 7,000,000 people to reach the ~90% of total population for herd immunity.

    On the down side that will mean 7,000,000 to 9,000,000 will be exposed to the 0.5% to 1.5% death rate unless we reach herd immunity.

    The plus side is that 14,250,000* to 16,250,000* will believe the pandemic is over and life and business can return to normal .

    *However anyone over 70 will need to be very careful as a fully vaccinated 80 year old will have similar protection to an unvaccinated 50 year old. In fact, if you are fully vaccinated it is best to try and avoid getting covid all together.

  12. Hey bludgers, WE have a national target. We needs to reach this together.
    Sfm isn’t to blame because WE need to reach this goal.

    It’s on us.

    God that man is a spanner.

  13. I admit I’m not following every twist and turn in the Morrison rationale wrt vaccination, but would I be correct to say that Scott Morrison is essentially saying that he will point the nation in the direction it needs to go in and will provide a couple of signposts along the way but the hard work involved in getting there will be all on us? None of this Nudge Economics stuff with incentives or anything like that?

  15. Regarding that preprint finding that Pfizer and AZ have the same rate of clotting – haven’t read it yet but here is a review:

    https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-preprint-looking-at-thromboembolic-events-and-thrombosis-with-thrombocytopenia-after-covid-19-infection-and-after-pfizer-biontech-or-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccination/

    Judging from this review, the type of clotting that they found were the same after the two types of vaccine in the preprint is not just the rare TTS that has been identified following AZ, but the more common type of clots, venous thromboembolism. So it would make sense that the rates are the same, because it’s only TTS that has been causally linked with AZ. The sample size wasn’t large enough to look at difference in rates of TTS (would needs millions for each vaccine).

  19. Confessions:

    Friday, July 30, 2021 at 7:27 pm

    That’s logical but “oldies” don’t always follow the script. Of course, I’m much younger yet I’ve often heard the question, “How did Morrison, his mother & mother-in-law (and who knows who else within his circle) get early access to Pfizer”? – a legitimate
    question and one which has not been answered.

  22. AMA President
    @amapresident
    ·
    4h
    Last chance to eradicate Delta from Sydney? Simple rules that apply to everyone have a much better chance of working than focused complex rules. Only truly essential retail; 5km for all; masks for all, everywhere.
    No time to lose to curb Delta’s spread in Sydney
    The AMA said today time is running out to get control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Sydney, calling for stricter, wider lockdown measures alongside a massive vaccination push. AMA President Dr Omar…
    ama.com.au

  26. Mavis,

    ‘I was the product of a mixed marriage.

    While both my parents were devout Catholics, Mum was from Melbourne and Dad was from NSW.’]

    How you’ve overcome such a bad start to life evidences your resolve.

    😀

    It was far worse then I realised at the time. My Irish Great Uncle Pat (of course that was his name) who lived with us, was a Collingwood supporter, while my mother was a Carlton supporter. Grand-final day at our house was very fraught. Uncle Pat v. DLP? Not sure, but I have my suspicions.

    Mum voted DLP until she met my Labor voting father, who was a teacher of History and English (of course he voted Labor). I think she is still angry about being forced by my father’s logic to abandon the DLP. She still, when she is in a mood, accuses me of “not respecting authority”.

    Once it would have been the pope, but then she discovered Jean Calvin, who has kept her more than adequately supplied for reasons to dislike people like me who “tug their forelock to no man”. She makes the Jesuits look like supporters of the dreaded Communism.

    And then or course, growing up in NSW, Uncle Pat asked me who won the football – I said something like Manly (I do not actually remember which team), and he said No! The football!

    Interesting bit of cultural education – the football is whatever your local sect happens to think it is.

  29. With the rate Morrison’s hair is returning, this will be him around Election time.
    —————–
    Are these the green shoots Berejiklian was talking about?

  30. MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell has requested to have his ads pulled from the Fox News schedule, following a disagreement over a potential commercial.

    Lindell told the Wall Street Journal that he pitched Fox on an ad for a “cyber symposium,” which he intends to live stream in August. At this event, he is looking to prove that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump, through the manipulation of voting machines.

    Lindell noted that the commercial would not specifically mention his claims of widespread voter fraud. But the notion that he would be discussing them at his upcoming event was apparently enough of a reason for Fox to refuse to promote it.

    “It’s unfortunate Mr. Lindell has chosen to pause his commercial time on FOX News given the level of success he’s experienced in building his brand through advertising on the number one cable news network,” Fox News said in a statement.

    “Shame on you Fox! Go to FrankSpeech.com,” Lindell wrote on his official Facebook page, linking to the article in the Journal.

  32. laughtong:

    Friday, July 30, 2021 at 7:58 pm

    [‘Ash Barty & John Peers just lost in semis of the mixed doubles 13 11 in the tie breaker’]

    Bugger! If I were Peers, I’d blame my partner.

  33. Douglas and Milko,
    At least you weren’t brought up in a house where one parent supported South Sydney and the other one supported St George. 😀

  35. Liberal and Country League has a really… “old school” flavour to it. I guess that might be their target. More to the point, would it attract the Pentecostals?

  37. Bugger! If I were Peers, I’d blame my partner.
    ————
    There was a baseline rally between Rublev and Barty. Barty was so far behind the baseline she was out where the buses dont run. But she had Rublev on the back foot for most of it.

  38. Murdoch’s Hun has another angle to Morrison’s 70% today.

    It’s the state and territory governments that must meet his target figure. So blame shifting onto states/territories as well as the people of Australia. He’s got all bases covered.

    PM’s new Covid-19 vaccine targets to avoid lockdowns

    Scott Morrison has revealed new vaccine targets Australia’s states and territories must meet to get out of lockdowns and re-open international travel.

  42. D&M / Mavis:

    My great-uncle was a Liberal senator, who helped block the Whitlam’s supply bills and later served as President of the Senate during Fraser’s final term. His sister, my grandmother, was a rather radical Labor woman and close associate of Frank Hardy, being heavily involved in the Gurindji campaign. According to my dad, this led to some tense family gatherings, especially around the time of the dismissal!

  43. SfM being told…

    The WA premier, Mark McGowan, however said “lockdowns are still possible” under 70% vaccination, and said WA “reserves the right to lockdown” even at 80% vaccination.
    Contrary to SfM interpretation

  45. The Genius of Kennett: paying the best coach in the AFL a million bucks to do nothing in 2022.
    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.THEY.FUCK.UP.

  46. ”
    Simon Katichsays:
    Friday, July 30, 2021 at 8:17 pm
    Olympic tennis match?
    ————————
    Stupid game.
    ”
    Did you watch through your fingers while putting palm on your eyes?
    I tend to do that when I watch Sydney Swans match.
    BTW, Who is this John Peers anyway? Never heard of him till now. Looks old. Journey man? If so, then he has played very well in the company of Barty.

  48. Douglas and Milko says:
    Friday, July 30, 2021 at 5:22 pm

    D&M
    I’m from Melbourne. I think it’s fair to say we’ve always been a bit up ourselves.
    But justification is a defence

  49. BTW, Who is this John Peers anyway?
    —————-
    Who cares. Stupid game.

    I have good news and bad news. The good news is the plane will be landing IMMEDIATELY.
    Thank you for flying Air Penguin.

    Speaking of funny videos….. having met a few south african ladies … I also found this quite funny.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYOIbXJTVIc

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