Family First the second

Fragmentation on the right continues apace, with even former Labor folk now joining in. Also: a new poll records a big thumbs-down for the weekend’s lockdown protests.

Miscellaneous developments of the week so far:

• Former South Australian state Labor MPs Tom Kenyon and Jack Snelling have quit their former party over “moves to restrict religious freedom” and announced their intention to reactivate the Family First party and field candidates at the state election next March. The original Family First was folded into Australian Conservatives when Cory Bernardi joined it in 2016 and wound up at his behest after its failure at the 2019 federal election. Kenyon and Snelling have long been associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association sub-faction of the Right, which is in turn associated with Catholicism and social conservatism, and includes among its number the party’s state leader, Peter Malinauskas. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports this has the approval of party co-founder Andrew Evans; presumably this explains it obtaining the old party’s database of 6000 supporters, as reported by David Penberthy of The Australian. Whereas the old party consistently directed preferences to the Liberals, Snelling has ruled out preference deals with either major party.

• In other party split news, Peta Credlin writes in The Australian that Ross Cameron, who held Parramatta for the Liberals from 1996 to 2004 but is these days noted as a staple of Sky News after dark, “could head the Liberal Democrats’ NSW Senate ticket”. Earlier reportage on the matter said only that Cameron was involved with the party’s strategy and candidate recruitment.

• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports Matt Burnell, an official with the Right faction Transport Workers Union, has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for its safe northern Adelaide seat of Spence, which will be vacated with Nick Champion’s move to state politics. Burnell reportedly scored 88 union delegate votes and 68 state conference delegate votes, each amounting to a third of the total, to just two and seven respectively for rival candidate Alice Dawkins, daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The rank-and-file membership ballot that made up the remaining third went 140-42 to Burnell.

• Peter Law of The West Australian reports that first-term Liberal MP Vince Connelly, whose seat of Stirling is being abolished, “looks certain to contest Cowan, which is held by Labor’s Anne Aly”. By my reckoning, the seat has a post-redistribution margin of 1.5%, making it a seemingly unlikely prospect for the Liberals at a time when polls are pointing to a Labor swing in the state upwards of 10%.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports a poll conducted on Monday by Utting Research from 1600 respondents in New South Wales found only 7% supported Saturday’s lockdown protests, with fully 83% opposed. The poll also suggested Scott Morrison’s standing is continuing to tumble, with 37% satisfied and 57% dissatisfied (the state breakdown in last fortnight’s Resolve Strategic poll had it at 46% apiece). By contrast, Gladys Berejiklian maintained 56% approval and 33% disapproval, while the state’s chief health officer, Kerry Chant, recorded 70% approval.

• Emma Dawson, the executive director of the Per Capita think tank who appeared set to ran as Labor’s candidate against Adam Bandt in Melbourne, has announced her withdrawal. Dawson said this was for “personal and professional reasons”, although it followed shortly upon her criticism of Labor’s announcement that it would not rescind tax cuts for high income earners if elected.

• Craig Emerson on election timing in the Financial Review:

The December quarter national accounts are scheduled for release on March 2, 2022. Morrison might feel confident that the economy will bounce back in the December quarter from the September quarter’s negative result. But would it be wise to take a chance on a double-dip recession being announced during a federal election campaign? That would be a catastrophe for the Morrison government: marked down for its refusal to accept responsibility for quarantine, presiding over the slowest vaccine rollout in the Western world, and forfeiting any claim to be superior economic managers … But an April or May election would face the same risks, since the March quarter national accounts would not be released until after the election must be held … A late-February election might be the best bet, though the federal campaign would overlap with that of the South Australian state election scheduled for March 19.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,483 comments on “Family First the second”

Comments Page 27 of 50
1 … 26 27 28 … 50

  1. The only comparable country I can find is Singapore with 60% of the population (not “eligible”, but entire population including kids) fully vaccinated. Singapore appears to be turning down its Delta wave, but only with the help of some fairly strict public health measures.

    That would be comparable to what exactly? Well over 70% of “eligible” here.

    The UK has 55.4% fully vaccinated, population wide and it appears that its Delta wave may have peaked. But the UK has the dubious benefit of having had millions of cases and thus a fair degree of natural immunity. In other words, 55.4% population wide would be disastrous here. And what’s that in terms of “eligible” percentage? Maybe closer to 70?

    In short Scomo’s targets are rubbery and simply not sufficient. Not without strong public health measures, constant restrictions etc. Which in theory is great (and its probably there in the modelling) but in reality will such measures be sustainable or honoured, either by the NSW government or “ordinary people”. My guess is no and thus Scomo’s targets are too low.

    We can get to 80+% vaccination of the population as a whole and if it means waiting a few more months, that’s better than getting it wrong.

  2. AndrewMck

    I think Melbourne is a great city, but at the wrong latitude.

    (And in case you’re wondering, somewhere near Coffs Harbour).

  8. The far-right extremist Neil Erikson has been sentenced to 10 weeks in jail after he marched into a queer-friendly Melbourne church and hurled homophobic abuse, with a magistrate labelling his behaviour “wilfully ignorant” and “shameful”.
    He walked into the church, with two women, about 20 minutes after the congregation had convened and briefly took a seat before standing up to ask if they “married Sodomites”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/30/far-right-extremist-jailed-for-disrupting-melbourne-church-service-with-homophobic-rant

    His next 10 weeks may enlighten him?

  15. Sceptic @ #1309 Friday, July 30th, 2021 – 9:05 pm

    The far-right extremist Neil Erikson has been sentenced to 10 weeks in jail after he marched into a queer-friendly Melbourne church and hurled homophobic abuse, with a magistrate labelling his behaviour “wilfully ignorant” and “shameful”.
    He walked into the church, with two women, about 20 minutes after the congregation had convened and briefly took a seat before standing up to ask if they “married Sodomites”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/30/far-right-extremist-jailed-for-disrupting-melbourne-church-service-with-homophobic-rant

    His next 10 weeks may enlighten him?

    Hopefully he comes away chastened.

  17. Cud,
    So the Lambda Variant evades the neutralising effect of the vaccines and is more infectious. However, what the article doesn’t say, as far as I can see, is whether it causes serious illness and death to the extent the other VOCs do.

  18. Tom the first and best at 9:25 pm

    Melbourne in a sub-tropical climate?

    That’s alright, Perth has ‘Mediterranean’ climate. Which I suppose is why it has rained 27 of the last 28 days, 😆 🙁

  19. The Matildas will play either Sweden or Japan in the semi-finals on Monday for a place in the gold medal game.

    *gets down on her knees and prays for Japan not Sweden*

  22. @Catmomma…sorry but Sweden up 3-1. There is nothing better than getting game time as a team which due to covid not many teams have had the chance to do. The Matildas have improved every game.

  24. sonar @ #1323 Friday, July 30th, 2021 – 9:47 pm

    @Catmomma…sorry but Sweden up 3-1. There is nothing better than getting game time as a team which due to covid not many teams have had the chance to do. The Matildas have improved every game.

    sonar,
    Thanks for that. Not. 😆

    I hope that The Matildas have improved enough to beat the Swedish Amazons I saw in their first game against each other!

  25. Cud Chewer

    I’m not as smart on all the calculations as others but my instant reaction to Scotty’s phases was that his targets are far too low to be effective and if I can see it I’ll be interested to see the comments of the experts tomorrow.

  26. “3 out 4 semi finalists from the same group”

    It was called the pool of death, but it seems to have turned out alright!

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, July 30, 2021 at 10:06 pm

    Hope I’m wrong but the Matildas were very loose at the back & don’t appear to have a lot of confidence on the ball.. a lot of punt & pray.
    Height of the Swedes is a problem

  28. https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2002/S00184/us-biowarfare-programs-have-13000-death-scientists-hard-at-work.htm

    America’s $100-billion Germ Warfare Industry a “Criminal Enterprise,”Author of U.S. Biowarfare Act Says

    The American legal authority who in 1989 drafted the law Congress enacted to comply with the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention says the U.S. today [October 11, 2015] is in flagrant violation of that Convention.

    “Since Sept. 11, 2001, we have spent somewhere in the area of $100 billion” on offensive biological warfare, charges Professor Francis Boyle of the University of Illinois, Champaign.

    Boyle said an estimated 13,000 “death scientists” in 400 laboratories in the U.S. and abroad, are employed making new strains of offensive killer germs that will be resistant to vaccines.

    For example, Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka’s group at the University of Wisconsin has found a way to increase the toxicity of the flu virus by 200 times! Boyle says Kawaoka is “the same death scientist who resurrected the genocidal Spanish Flu virus for the Pentagon for offensive biowarfare purposes.”

  29. About 20% of Australians are aged under 18, so Morrison’s 70% is actually 56%, his 80% actually 64%. Very modest targets and no timetable – does not inspire confidence.

  30. Mavis
    Watch this space. Psychedelics look like being a paradigm shift in the treatment of mental disease. For something so common, new treatments have been disappointing.

  32. Gustavsson (our Swedish coach) has been poor in managing defence with 5 goals conceded to Germany and Netherlands in the warm ups, 3 to Denmark ad well and 4 to Sweden.

    Kerr is holding us up at one end and the goalie at the other.

  33. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1229689.shtml

    To date, nearly 60 countries have sent letters to the WHO, agreeing with the results of the first phase of origin-tracing research and opposing the attempt to politicize the study of the origins, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Sunday while meeting the press with Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto.

    The coronavirus needs origin-tracing, and so does the political virus, said Wang.

    “Yet the US, long being obsessed with hegemony, and the one that has forced international organizations to probe others, is unlikely to change its attitude because of the international petition,” said Li, noting that the US refusal to subject itself to a WHO virus origins probe exposes its hypocrisy and condescension.

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-07-30/U-S-has-politicized-COVID-19-origin-tracing-British-lawyer-12jS2ndPfVu/index.html

    “British human rights lawyer and arbitration expert Graham Perry said in an interview with CGTN that the U.S. has politicized the source of COVID-19 is an effort to contain and damage China.”

  37. Steve777 @ #1030 Friday, July 30th, 2021 – 8:14 pm

    About 20% of Australians are aged under 18, so Morrison’s 70% is actually 56%, his 80% actually 64%. Very modest targets and no timetable – does not inspire confidence.

    Some vaccines have been approved for children as young as 12, so you could add them soon.

  39. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, July 30, 2021 at 5:38 pm
    Talking to friends and family today, you can’t get a 2nd AZ shot in Blacktown for love or money – not available.

    I had my second AZ today at my gp in Blacktown. Week 10. Appointment made last week. My 20 something daughter got her first AZ today.
    My gp got the remainder at the end of the vaccination session and gave it to her.

  41. lizzie

    I fully expect some of the experts to be not impressed about the low vaccination targets. Also, why did Scomo decide to release this late on a Friday? Taking out the trash again?

  43. Simon

    I got driven around parts of England in a hotted up Volvo 🙂

    Yes, really, it was originally owned by the police.

  45. C@t

    As far as I can tell, the “payload” – the genes that code for harmful effects from covid haven’t really changed much, so you’d expect Lambda to be equally deadly.

    Of course, if you really wanted to have fun, you could genetically engineer covid to be relatively harmless, but also be far, far more infectious and thus out-compete all the wild strains, driving them to extinction. Now, have fun trying to get that past the ethics committee 🙂

  47. Diogenes,

    Allowing research into the use of psychedelics for mental health conditions has been a long time coming. A lifetime even.

    And then there is politics and society.

  50. This ’94 tennis match is interesting from a number of perspectives. First, it was rare to see Graff defeated at Wimbledon. Second, it’s rarer still to see a serve-volleyer beat a ground-stroke specialist. Third, the clarity of the telecast is striking.

    Compare & contrast this match to the Olympics. The JOC has had quite a number of years to perfect its telecast but judging by the matches I’ve viewed, it’s failed miserably. The colour of the court is wrong, as is the angle from which it’s telecast, which shouldn’t be at almost ground level; it should be elevated so that the viewer can better see the match, especially now that players hit the ball so hard.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M959nDkgXTQ

Comments Page 27 of 50
1 … 26 27 28 … 50

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *