Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan’s latest poll leans a little more heavily to Labor than other recent polling, while showing familiar patterns on its state breakdowns.

The formerly erratic Roy Morgan appears now to be in the regular habit of releasing fortnightly federal polling results, the latest of which encompasses a sample of 2747 respondents surveyed over the previous two weekends. This records little change on a strong result for Labor last time, with their two-party lead out slightly from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. Changes on the primary vote are negligible, with both major parties up half a point to 37.5%, the Greens stead on 12.5% and One Nation up half to 3.5%.

State two-party breakdowns are provided as usual: these show Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (a swing of about 4%), 60-40 in Victoria (about 7%), 54.5-45.5 in both Western Australia (a swing of about 10%) and South Australia (a swing of about 4%) and 57-43 in Tasmania (about 1%), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. There are 57 new cases reported today with 55 local cases and two cases acquired overseas. Of the locally-acquired cases, 49 are linked to known outbreaks and 25 have been in isolation for the entirety of their infectious period. [1/2]

  2. Work to rule/torchbearer

    Yes lockdown fatigue is definitely a thing.

    And yes, it is a political hit job re the playgrounds. Pathetic as always.

  3. Victoria @ #51 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 8:53 am

    There are 57 new cases reported today with 55 local cases and two cases acquired overseas. Of the locally-acquired cases, 49 are linked to known outbreaks and 25 have been in isolation for the entirety of their infectious period. [1/2]

    I expect we won’t get back to doughnut day in Melbourne. Keeping case numbers low until the vaccine coverage can exert a bit more pressure on the Reff will become the objective over September & October

  4. Shane Bazzi
    @shanebazzi
    · 44m
    Today’s the day. Mediation with Peter Dutton starts at 9:15am. It’ll take place via video conference. A reminder that he, a wealthy & powerful cabinet minister, is suing me, an impoverished unemployed refugee activist, for defamation over a six word tweet which I deleted in April

  5. Work to rule

    It’s looking very difficult.

    The outbreaks are genetically linked to the NSW wave, but the seeding is not clear.
    We did expect that out of the thousands of people that returned from red zones, leakage was going to occur.
    But this is looking very tricky.
    And how do we keep further leakages from coming in.

  6. Since there is another apartment in lockdown in Campsie, I expect the numbers to stay the same or go higher.

    We shall see.

    I don’t think we hit ‘peak’ yet.

  7. So it looks like the 80% target has now become the 70% target.
    80% was never attainable in the short term (the next 6 months)

    lizzie @ #14 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 7:52 am

    We know where Joshie comes from. Gladys must be pleased at this support from the top.

    @QuentinDempster
    · 12h
    ⁦@JoshFrydenberg⁩ tells ⁦@leighsales⁩ that when Australia gets to 70% vaccination rate there should be “no expectation” by states/territories to emergency COVID support payments for employees affected by lockdowns. “We need to learn to live with COVID”, he says.

  8. 80% was never attainable in the short term (the next 6 months)

    So? The goal is to have an effective target, not a quick and easy target.

  9. a r

    So? The goal is to have an effective target, not a quick and easy target.

    The goal of this mob has always been “quick and easy”.


  10. Scottsays:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 7:07 am
    I can’t see Gladys Berejiklian still being premier in year 2023 when the NSW state election is due

    I can see Victor Dominello being the premier , but will it help the nsw lib/nats to get re-elected dont know

    Dominello will not become Premier because yesterday he said he is sick with some serious illness.


  11. Scottsays:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 7:13 am
    Other NSW Liberal party leadership

    Dominic Perrottet – will not be surprise to see him leave politics at the upcoming state election , Reason NSW ICAC

    Dream on

  12. Sounds exciting! (Or terrifying, depending on your point of view)

    EXCLUSIVE

    Revealed: NSW freedom plan for fully vaccinated

    Proposal would see bars, restaurants and gyms reopen to fully inoculated once vaccination coverage reaches 70 per cent.
    By YONI BASHAN, GEOFF CHAMBERS
    (Murdoch’s Oz)

  13. OH got his second shot this morning. Was told by the nurse that today was going to be their busiest day yet. Very encouraging.


  14. David Crowe opines that to keep his re-election hopes alive, Scott Morrison has to put his authority on the line.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/to-keep-re-election-hopes-alive-scott-morrison-has-to-put-his-authority-on-the-line-20210819-p58k9u.html

    To put his “authority on line”, he should be able to take blame for his actions if things go wrong because of them and accept responsibility for his actions which I did not witness till now.
    But I witnessed something. People are intimidated by his presence, which I never witnessed with other PMs. When people talk about him they are very careful what they say. For example, notice the journalists. I never seen ABC more tamed than now.

  15. Ven @ #62 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 9:11 am


    Scottsays:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 7:07 am
    I can’t see Gladys Berejiklian still being premier in year 2023 when the NSW state election is due

    I can see Victor Dominello being the premier , but will it help the nsw lib/nats to get re-elected dont know

    Dominello will not become Premier because yesterday he said he is sick with some serious illness.

    Bells Palsy is treatable:

    Bell’s palsy may be a reaction to a viral infection. It rarely occurs more than once.
    Bell’s palsy is characterised by muscle weakness that causes one half of the face to droop.
    Bell’s palsy usually resolves on its own within six months. Physiotherapy can help prevent muscles from permanently contracting.

  16. Our NEM is being redesigned to work even better … for the fossil fuel generators, that is …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-20/household-power-bills-could-jump-if-capacity-payments-introduced/100391958

    The ESB has therefore recommended introducing a “capacity payment” to the market, which would see energy retailers paying additional money to conventional power plants based on the size of the installed capacity of their generators, rather than the power they actually provide.

    Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor has accepted the logic of the ESB’s recommendation.

    Yay! How good is Australian coal!

  17. Victoria @ #53 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 8:55 am

    Work to rule/torchbearer

    Yes lockdown fatigue is definitely a thing.

    And yes, it is a political hit job re the playgrounds. Pathetic as always.

    Someone just has to put it to the Liberal cats’ paws wrt playgrounds:
    Would you rather more children contracted the Delta Variant, or their parents at the playground with them?

    Simple answer, yes or no, please.

  18. Jim Chalmers MP
    @JEChalmers
    ·
    1h
    When a Labor state govt locked down last year Frydenberg called it:

    “the biggest public policy failure by a State government in living memory”

    Today asked about a Liberal state govt lockdown after a disastrous delay:

    “No-one is perfect”.

    Not a leader, just a Liberal.

    #auspol

  19. Victoria @ #73 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 9:26 am

    a r

    Yes we will need to get a full breakdown of the latest cases and why not in iso.

    It looks to me like the Engagement party in the St Kilda/Caulfield area seeded pretty quickly around there. I would hate to think that people were still sneaking around in order to conduct religious observances and teaching.

  20. C@tmomma @ #71 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 9:22 am

    Ven @ #62 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 9:11 am


    Scottsays:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 7:07 am
    I can’t see Gladys Berejiklian still being premier in year 2023 when the NSW state election is due

    I can see Victor Dominello being the premier , but will it help the nsw lib/nats to get re-elected dont know

    Dominello will not become Premier because yesterday he said he is sick with some serious illness.

    Bells Palsy is treatable:

    Bell’s palsy may be a reaction to a viral infection. It rarely occurs more than once.
    Bell’s palsy is characterised by muscle weakness that causes one half of the face to droop.
    Bell’s palsy usually resolves on its own within six months. Physiotherapy can help prevent muscles from permanently contracting.

    +/- steroids

  21. Ven @ #70 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 9:21 am


    David Crowe opines that to keep his re-election hopes alive, Scott Morrison has to put his authority on the line.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/to-keep-re-election-hopes-alive-scott-morrison-has-to-put-his-authority-on-the-line-20210819-p58k9u.html

    To put his “authority on line”, he should be able to take blame for his actions if things go wrong because of them and accept responsibility for his actions which I did not witness till now.
    But I witnessed something. People are intimidated by his presence, which I never witnessed with other PMs. When people talk about him they are very careful what they say. For example, notice the journalists. I never seen ABC more tamed than now.

    It is a very odd thing indeed. I’ve often wondered what it is about him that people find so imposing, so intimidating.

  22. Itza,
    I was going to add the bit about steroids but wasn’t quite sure if it was absolutely recommended, so I left the door open for someone better qualified than I to step through it. 🙂

  23. mundo @ #78 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 9:31 am

    Ven @ #70 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 9:21 am


    David Crowe opines that to keep his re-election hopes alive, Scott Morrison has to put his authority on the line.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/to-keep-re-election-hopes-alive-scott-morrison-has-to-put-his-authority-on-the-line-20210819-p58k9u.html

    To put his “authority on line”, he should be able to take blame for his actions if things go wrong because of them and accept responsibility for his actions which I did not witness till now.
    But I witnessed something. People are intimidated by his presence, which I never witnessed with other PMs. When people talk about him they are very careful what they say. For example, notice the journalists. I never seen ABC more tamed than now.

    It is a very odd thing indeed. I’ve often wondered what it is about him that people find so imposing, so intimidating.

    You talking about the ‘Menacing Wallpaper’? 🙂

  24. Socrates @ #39 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 8:31 am

    Victoria

    Glad you got your procedure. When you look at NSW and their cancelling elective surgery you should get what you need done while you can. Then get jab 2 as soon as permissable. I get my AZ jab 2 next Tuesday. It will be a good feeling to get it finished.

    Just for the record, part of that no elective surgery decree has been reversed, various pressure brought to bear. Policy on the run.

  25. With the NSW/QLD border (Tweed/Coolangatta) virtually crawling with police and army personnel, it’s perhaps not the most opportune time to attempt to smuggle a commercial quantity of a Schedule 2 drug (Drugs Misuse Act) into QLD:

    [‘A 48-year-old Sydney man has been stopped at the Queensland border, allegedly trying to cross with 145 kilograms of cannabis in his van.

    Queensland police called their NSW counterparts to the border checkpoint on Griffith Street, Coolangatta, on the Gold Coast about 8.50pm yesterday following reports it was the man’s second attempted crossing that day.

    Police say the man told police he had travelled from South Australia and was transporting goods. However, he did not provide a valid permit.

    The man, found to be from Greater Sydney, was arrested and taken to Tweed Heads District Hospital to be tested for COVID-19.

    His Mercedes-Benz Sprinter van was searched and police say they found two mobile phones, a knife and documentation.

    Officers allegedly uncovered 145 kilograms of cannabis, with an estimated street value of $1.2 million, in vacuum-sealed bags, hidden inside two large hot water systems and a toolbox.’] – SMH live blog.

  26. Bill Bowtell AO
    @billbowtell
    ·
    4m
    “Morrison ..adamant that restrictions have to ease once the country reaches ..target of vaccinating 70 per cent of those who are eligible for a dose. That amounts to 56 per cent of the total population.” Opening up with 44% unvaccinated? Let’s vote first.
    To keep re-election hopes alive, Scott Morrison has to put his authority on the line
    The Prime Minister wants to shift the nation’s thinking on COVID, but to do that he will have to take risk.
    smh.com.au

  27. Seriously, I think Scott Morrison is probably the best actor Australia has produced that didn’t continue a career in acting but went into politics instead. Probably the best chameleon since Russel Crowe. Donald Trump recognised it from half a world away. And there is no role he will not play, out front on the stage, or behind the scenes, to maintain his grip on power. I just hope that Labor are developing a killer set of election campaign material because he’s going to be harder to get rid of than toe fungus!

  28. UK Cartoons:
    Kal on #JoeBiden #TalibanTakeover #pullout #Afghanistan

    Nicola Jennings on #BorisJohnson and #DominicRaab & their Afghanistan platitudes #TalibanTakeover #pullout #Afghanistan

    Andy Davey on #BorisJohnson #TalibanTakeover #pullout #Afghanistan

    Brian Adcock on #DominicRaab #TalibanTakeover #pullout #Afghanistan

    Kal on #JoeBiden #TalibanTakeover #pullout #Afghanistan

    Andy Davey: Desperately sad tales of #AfghanWomen throwing their children over barbed wire fences to be caught by soldiers at #Kabul_Airport in the hope they reach safety #TalibanTakeover #pullout #Afghanistan

    Paul Thomas on #TalibanTakeover #pullout #Afghanistan

    Morten Morland on #TheresaMay #BorisJohnson #TalibanTakeover #pullout #Afghanistan

    Seamus Jennings on #PritiPatel & her approach to #refugees #TalibanTakeover #pullout #Afghanistan

  29. Morrison is just an insecure bullshit artist.

    Anyone who is ‘intimidated’ by this pi55ant should get out of the caper.

  30. C@tmomma @ #74 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 9:26 am

    Someone just has to put it to the Liberal cats’ paws wrt playgrounds:
    Would you rather more children contracted the Delta Variant, or their parents at the playground with them?

    Simple answer, yes or no, please.’

    Fully support the playground lockdown. Once it was clear that children were a delta vector (and some parents saw playgrounds as a loophole) it was the right step.

    The Kids are still in the park, just spread out – kicking balls, riding bikes, running around with dogs. The dire effects of closing playgrounds is a beat-up.

  31. FFS – like Trump, stop investing Morrison with more talent and ability than he’s actually got. A lot of this comes from this inability to understand how someone so truly mediocre was able to win.

    Yes, Morrison is a bully – that helps. Yes, Morrison is a decent spin doctor. But… he shows next to no strategic ability, he’s probably the least strategic PM we’ve had in living memory (maybe McMahon) – but what he lacks in actual strategic ability, he makes up with rat cunning. This means he’s effective at covering his own arse but with an inability to prevent the fuck ups from happening.

    Morrison’s strength and weakness, is that he’s basically, politically, coreless.

  32. William Bowe says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 6:18 am
    Morgan’s polling is now done online and by phone, where in the past it was traditionally associated with face-to-face polling. So I think you’d have to say that it’s untested, just like Resolve Strategic and (at federal level at least) YouGov/Newspoll. Someone who got polled by Morgan commented here a while back that they had an endless questionnaire that made them doubt that the kind of people willing to endure the whole thing would constitute a representative sample. This was no doubt an issue with their face-to-face polling as well — Morgan tacks political questions on to the multi-client commercial market research surveys that actually pay their bills.

    Thanks William. The sample size is impressive. I guess the question is whether the samples can be taken to be “random”. There must be a significant degree of self-selection by the sampled population .…which could tend to mean the samples are not really random at all. I wonder how they adjust for this? Do the pollsters disclose the methodologies used to calibrate their demographics?

    If the samples are in effect not random, their confidence levels/MOE are going to make their conclusions a lot less useful. William, I wonder if this is discussed/considered by the pollsters?

  33. Long post warning.

    Allowing people that are vaccinated greater freedom at 70% eligible (56% total population) coverage will result in increased death of unvaccinated people. Here is why (synthesised from the previous thread):

    A recent preprint of research from UK surveillance:
    https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/files/coronavirus/covid-19-infection-survey/finalfinalcombinedve20210816.pdf

    The premises are:
    A. the vaccine reduces the likelihood of infection, and
    B. the vaccine decreases onward transmission when infected

    Now, the Doherty modelling uses the assumption that vaccines are 65% effective for passing on the virus once you are infected (premise B). This is based on earlier evidence from a letter that is primarily alpha variant data and partially vaccinated people. It is extrapolated. I called the extrapolation into question at the time of release. Other models have not been so courageous.

    From this research, it is a good cohort study (but with all the relevant potential biases of course), of a random population sample looking for PCR-positive so including asymptomatic transmission (good). Capturing Delta dominant transmission time period (double good).

    Good: Vaccine effectiveness not too shabby despite attenuating. Pfizer attenuating more from a higher peak efficacy than AZ. About the same as natural immunity. Moderna single dose (too early for full course) efficacy in line with Pfizer or even superior. Summary is vaccines work, but may need a boost. Premise A is good.

    Bad: “despite two vaccinations with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 in the Delta-dominant period, with similar average Ct values to those infected without vaccination, and much more similar percentages reporting symptoms, driven by Ct” Although a surrogate outcome for onward transmission once infected, similar Ct is not a nice signal.

    Summary: The Doherty modelling needs to be updated with the new evidence. Vaccinated people, IF infected, have the potential to transmit the delta variant AS well as a non vaccinated person. Allowing vaccinated people freedom with 44% of your population unvaccinated is a recipe for disaster.

    If you would like expert opinions along the same lines, I found some hot takes:

    https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-preprint-looking-at-the-impact-of-the-delta-variant-on-vaccine-effectiveness/

    I would also welcome rhwombat’s thoughts!

  34. Ven and Mundo,
    I havent got a copy but if you can find a photo of Scummo during the bushfires standing over the NSW fire commissioner with Gladys Binchicken in the background.
    The body language says it all.
    He’s a bully
    Not acceptable today but he needs a good clip around the ear.
    He would wet his pants

  35. With the NSW/QLD border (Tweed/Coolangatta) virtually crawling with police and army personnel, it’s perhaps not the most opportune time to attempt to smuggle a commercial quantity of a Schedule 2 drug (Drugs Misuse Act) into QLD

    Did he miss the turn off to Antivaxistan? (Nimbin/Byron Bay/Mullumbimby.)

  36. Politics is theatrical. It has characters, narrative sequences, themes, lots of make-believe, dramatic tension and scene-playing. A lot of voters have the same response to it as I have to sport…absolutely cannot stand it and avoid it at all costs. Politics, for the most part, is about as real as “reality tv” and is equally unentertaining

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