Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan’s latest poll leans a little more heavily to Labor than other recent polling, while showing familiar patterns on its state breakdowns.

The formerly erratic Roy Morgan appears now to be in the regular habit of releasing fortnightly federal polling results, the latest of which encompasses a sample of 2747 respondents surveyed over the previous two weekends. This records little change on a strong result for Labor last time, with their two-party lead out slightly from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. Changes on the primary vote are negligible, with both major parties up half a point to 37.5%, the Greens stead on 12.5% and One Nation up half to 3.5%.

State two-party breakdowns are provided as usual: these show Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (a swing of about 4%), 60-40 in Victoria (about 7%), 54.5-45.5 in both Western Australia (a swing of about 10%) and South Australia (a swing of about 4%) and 57-43 in Tasmania (about 1%), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 60
1 2 3 4 … 60

  1. ”
    The SMH reveals that almost 90,000 extra trips were taken on Sydney’s public transport on Wednesday compared to the same time last month, despite pleas for people to stay home as cases continue to climb one week before the lockdown is scheduled to end.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/sydney-commuter-numbers-on-the-rise-despite-pleas-to-stay-at-home-20210819-p58k8t.html
    ”

    Baffling to put it mildly because it is public transport and not their own vehicle especially when case numbers keep increasing.

    In my opinion that is because governments don’t have Job Keeper 2.0 and Job Seeker 2.0. imagine how easy it would have been to everyone if they had stuck to Job keeper and Job seeker system.
    The economic packages are redesigned again and there are huge delays because if that. It is like reinventing the wheel.

    The SMH editorial chimes in, saying financial assistance for NSW businesses and individuals still has some big gaps and payments are too slow.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/business-will-need-more-help-to-get-through-this-long-lockdown-20210819-p58k8q.html

  2. A 48-year-old Sydney man has been stopped at the Queensland border, allegedly trying to cross with 145 kilograms of cannabis in his van.

    It’s medicinal! All 145 kilos of it.

  4. I love giving people their first and especially their second Covid vaccine. LOVE IT. It feels like a win, every single time.

    We all know they’re not sterilizing vaccines, we all know vaccination isn’t the perfect answer, we all know that mutations are happening and boosters will be needed, and I’ve done my share of openly fuming and commiserating about the politics and problems with the rollout, much of it in terms unprintable on a family blog. I wish we were further into pulling on the shield than we are. I wish we’d moved faster, I wish we didn’t have the supply issues.

    But having that primary course confers a helluva statistical advantage, it is so very satisfying and heartening watching people get their chance to get a seat belt on, and I am so grateful to everyone presenting for immunization, and the more nervous they’ve been, the prouder I am. Legends all of them.

  11. Let us consider Morrison’s intentions.

    What if his intent is simply to cultivate his patronage network? This is what Middleton had to say in her article back in 2019: https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/06/08/fresh-documents-morrisons-sacking/15599160008252#hrd

    Those matters reflect his performances prior to politics. What if his approach in politics is similar?

    If so, did Morrison take on the PMship to afford him greater access to the pursestrings and the levers of power?

    Has Morrison effectively cultivated a patronage network during his period as a politician? While as Immigration minister? Treasurer? PM?

  12. BK and Cat

    I see money going to criminals untaxed.
    Money that could instead be in a regulated industry that would mean the person was not trying to move illicit goods in a pandemic.

  13. N @ #93 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 9:51 am

    William Bowe says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 6:18 am
    Morgan’s polling is now done online and by phone, where in the past it was traditionally associated with face-to-face polling. So I think you’d have to say that it’s untested, just like Resolve Strategic and (at federal level at least) YouGov/Newspoll. Someone who got polled by Morgan commented here a while back that they had an endless questionnaire that made them doubt that the kind of people willing to endure the whole thing would constitute a representative sample. This was no doubt an issue with their face-to-face polling as well — Morgan tacks political questions on to the multi-client commercial market research surveys that actually pay their bills.

    Thanks William. The sample size is impressive. I guess the question is whether the samples can be taken to be “random”. There must be a significant degree of self-selection by the sampled population .…which could tend to mean the samples are not really random at all. I wonder how they adjust for this?? Do the pollsters disclose the methodologies used to calibrate their demographics??

    From memory, there was some analysis on 538 around the bias in the polls for the US presidential election. The idea being there was a cohort of people disengaged from, and suspicious of, society. This is a group unlikely to engage in any public good activity (spending your time answering a pollster’s questions being one). Not hard to see how this group would tend to favour the conservative side of politics.

  15. Phillip Riley
    @philmupp1
    ·
    2m
    #auspol
    So Gladys looks like strengthening restrictions and perhaps curfews in some LGA’s .The real problem in Sydney is that there is a hotchpotch lockdown approach .FFS get consistent . Lockdown the whole of Sydney .There can’t be a lockdown Labor areas , keep open LNP areas

  16. ”
    Amid the constant drumbeat of news ranging from bad to catastrophic, Labor’s decision to implement the Turnbull-Morrison stage three tax cuts attracted only momentary attention, writes John Quiggin who says Labor is set to lose its progressive identity with small-target policies
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/labor-could-lose-progressive-identity-with-small-target-policies,15419
    ”

    You cannot implement your policy agenda from opposition.

  17. One important thing to remember about Morrison – which much of us on the left unfortunately forgot at the time – is that he was a pretty unknown figure prior to taking the top job.

    Sure, us political tragics had already formed strong opinions on him based on his time as a shadow minister, as minister for immigration and social services and treasurer. But many had likely barely even heard of the man when he became PM – they might recognise the name and the face, have seen him on the news on occasion, but he was mostly just another boring politician.

    This allowed him to present himself as a safe pair of hands compared to Shorten (who definitely was not an unknown by this point) and his ambitious agenda. People might not have liked Scomo very much, might have thought him a bit of a knob, really, but he also would have seemed fairly competent and harmless.

    That’s likely all gone now. His incompetence becomes more obvious with every passing day, as do his myriad personality flaws, his inability to take responsibility for anything, and his shocking lack of empathy. The mask has come off, revealing him as little more than a blustering, obnoxious wanker.

    Which isn’t to say Labor should get even a little complacent. The Coalition is going to do everything they can to stay in power, and we’ve seen many times before how quickly the narrative can shift. But if they do win the next election, I think it will be in spite of Morrison, rather than because of him.

  21. Tomorrow, John Hewson joins The Saturday Paper as a weekly columnist.
    Hewson writes with a long and steady view of politics. He writes with moral force about how the country might be and how our leaders have declined to take us there. He is a cogent critic of failures in climate action, refugee policy and economic reform.
    Each week, he will cover politics and accountability, with a particular focus on how to make Australia a more just country.
    In his first regular column, he writes about welfare reform. How could the piecemeal changes of the past 18 months be moulded together into a sustaining policy?
    “There has been considerable recent criticism of the miserly reset of JobSeeker as an inadequate unemployment benefit in current and prospective circumstances,” Hewson writes.
    “It is difficult to understand how the government justifies setting the level of JobSeeker below the poverty line. It appears much of the government’s decision was based on the prime minister’s personal prejudice.”
    Hewson will be an asset to The Saturday Paper and its mission to cover Australia from all viewpoints.

  23. From what I’ve heard, the constant border closures between NSW and QLD have made things rather difficult for stoners in the Brisbane area.

  25. Was this action of NSW Health on orders from Hazzard, supporting Gladys with Let It Rip?

    Julia Finn
    @juliafinnMP
    ·
    3h
    3 staff at Granville Woolworths have Covid – Woolies kindly emailed their customers and said which days they worked.
    @NSWHealth don’t publish this information anymore. #nswpol

  28. ar
    They were expecting a very long lockdown , so it was reasonable. Bit of a dumb bum though. Smuggling when police and everyone else are taking a much harder look at people/vehicles crossing the border.

  29. George Monbiot … talking about the UK, but equally true here …

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/19/life-earth-second-place-fossil-fuel-climate-breakdown

    Unless we leave fossil fuels in the ground, any commitment to stop climate breakdown is merely gestural. The atmosphere does not respond to gestures. It is unmoved by promises, unimpressed by words. It has no factions that can be set against each other, no voters who can be fobbed off and distracted.

    …

    No government, even the most progressive, is yet prepared to contemplate the transformation we need: a global programme that places the survival of humanity and the rest of life on Earth above all other issues. We need not just new policy, but a new ethics. We need to close the gap between knowing and doing. But this conversation has scarcely begun.

    The conversation has indeed scarcely begun. And yet, the time for action is already drawing to a close.

  32. ”
    mundosays:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 9:38 am
    Weaning the media off their boy Scotty is gonna be tough.
    ”

    He did not become their boy overnight. It happened after 2019 election. Also, they know which side of bread is buttered.

  33. lizzie says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 10:23 am
    Was this action of NSW Health on orders from Hazzard, supporting Gladys with Let It Rip?

    Julia Finn
    @juliafinnMP
    ·
    3h
    3 staff at Granville Woolworths have Covid – Woolies kindly emailed their customers and said which days they worked.
    @NSWHealth don’t publish this information anymore. #nswpol

    If you don’t like the truth hide it! Gladys B

  34. ”
    Rnm1953says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 9:58 am
    Ven and Mundo,
    I havent got a copy but if you can find a photo of Scummo during the bushfires standing over the NSW fire commissioner with Gladys Binchicken in the background.
    The body language says it all.
    He’s a bully

    ”

    Maybe Tradies like him because of that. I don’t know. I could be wrong. See what I am doing here.

  35. pukka

    I am not a friendly jordies fan but he has got some damaging stuff there on Gladys. I am staggered she saw it necessary to lie even about her high school record, falsely claiming to be dux of her school. Then lying about lying about it. Childish.

    Gladys credibility must be pretty low by now. Same with Hazzard. NSW lockdown and covid committee actions really needs a royal commission. Same with Scomo, Hunt and the appalling history of lies about vaccine supply at Commonwealth level.

  37. lizzie @ Friday, August 20, 2021 at 10:23 am

    How could Woolworths email customers that do not use a loyalty program? The only way they could contact them would be via their bank or Service NSW Covid Safe check-in. Not likely, so not all exposed customers would have been informed. This is yet another sign of NSW contact tracing losing effectiveness as a dampener on the effective reproduction rate..

    The lack of information on exposure sites in Sydney also adds to the poor messaging in decreasing compliance.

  38. ”
    Player Onesays:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 10:21 am
    Ven @ #115 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 10:12 am

    You cannot implement your policy agenda from opposition.

    A decent opposition can certainly influence government policy. Also, even if you believe otherwise, it does not follow that you should not have any.
    ”

    John Howard learnt his lessons from 1993 big target defeat of LNP at federal level. So when he became leader of LNP he locked all LNP “Fightback” policies away to be used when in power. He presented a small target to Keating and won the biggest win against ALP after Scullin defeat since 1932. The rest is history where he implemented all his policies from “Fight back” in the next 11 years.

  40. The numbers are in in NZ. What was the rush on for at supermarkets ? Amazingly not toilet paper , instead a rather healthy looking………………………..

    blockquoteSupermarket lockdown biggest sellers bananas, broccoli, avocados and milk

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-supermarket-lockdown-biggest-sellers-bananas-broccoli-avocados-and-milk/2AWSYB4Z3DAEZLTTZG6IXJJAYA/
    Fear not other headlines have been

    People have flooded to liquor stores amid the lockdown announcement.

  45. P1:

    Also, even if you believe otherwise, it does not follow that you should not have any.

    The problem with this argument is that Labor actually has lots of policies. I mean, fair enough if you don’t like them, but they are policies.

  47. Pooff!! There goes Gladys’s 28th August mirage. Greater Sydney now locked down until end Sept. Also mask wearing everywhere in the state compulsory (unless exercising).

  49. Turned off again. Gaslighting from the word go. I shall vicariously digest the information via pollbludger and news blogs 🙂

Comments Page 3 of 60
1 2 3 4 … 60

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *