Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan’s latest poll leans a little more heavily to Labor than other recent polling, while showing familiar patterns on its state breakdowns.

The formerly erratic Roy Morgan appears now to be in the regular habit of releasing fortnightly federal polling results, the latest of which encompasses a sample of 2747 respondents surveyed over the previous two weekends. This records little change on a strong result for Labor last time, with their two-party lead out slightly from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. Changes on the primary vote are negligible, with both major parties up half a point to 37.5%, the Greens stead on 12.5% and One Nation up half to 3.5%.

State two-party breakdowns are provided as usual: these show Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (a swing of about 4%), 60-40 in Victoria (about 7%), 54.5-45.5 in both Western Australia (a swing of about 10%) and South Australia (a swing of about 4%) and 57-43 in Tasmania (about 1%), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Gladys feels for you. Its heartbreaking when covid rips through families. Families!

    Gladys apologises deeply (for previous messaging that has made her unpopular).

  2. Socrates,
    Re: Gladys

    I am staggered she saw it necessary to lie even about her high school record, falsely claiming to be dux of her school.

    That is actually very concerning. People who lie to boost themselves – and academia has its share of them – especially about easily checkable facts, tend to have a tenuous relationship with reality, but they also tend to be very poor mangers.

  3. Kerry Chant is present – looks like GladysB is finally taking her advice.

    Mind you, this shopping list of extra and changed rules is so confusing…

  4. Now, now — Gladys never used the word ‘curfew’ because she knows that they don’t work. Not allowing people to leave their homes after a certain time is a totally different thing…

  5. D&M
    “People who lie to boost themselves – and academia has its share of them – especially about easily checkable facts, tend to have a tenuous relationship with reality, but they also tend to be very poor mangers.”

    Yes I once worked with a manager who said he was an engineer and in fact was not. It wasn’t just the dishonesty. He was hopeless.

  6. NOTHING has changed the trajectory of new cases that was clearly evident and predictable many weeks ago. And NOW, when it has completely got away from her, Gladys tightens things up.
    Bloody hopeless!

  7. Spitting out the new rules with machine gun delivery…

    Still mentioning the 6 million jabs next week – 2 tier society it would appear.

    In the 8 LGAs – live under curfew in your ghetto
    In the silvertail suburbs – free to go out and flaunt your wealth

    The final Liberal dream of apartheid unfolding before our eyes in Sydney

  8. So police will be stopping everybody who’s leaving their home from 9pm to 5am, and again this is based on police feedback received in the last few days about the type of activity that’s unfortunately being carried out by a small number of people but as we said Delta doesn’t leave any room for error.

  9. On Gladys’ press conference, I now know how the people of Afghanistan must have felt when hearing their previous government assure them they would stop the advance of the Taliban.

    Bizarre contrast between “honest and caring Gladys” with the tough Police Commissioner advising of his new powers. Good Gladys – Bad Cop. Very subtle.

    Gladys’ new rules do sound more realistic, but they still stick to this crazy LGA by LGA strategy that I find as confusing as a Scomo tax policy. Where is the clear simple messaging? And will they be updating all their websites to be correct and consistent?

    And will people still believe them and follow these rules?

  10. Chant thanking the premier for adopting the new measures is the only part of the presser that sounds sincere. She must feel like an expense auditor in Stuart Roberts’ office.

  11. If you’re struggling to find peace, stillness and calm in lockdown, may I suggest as an alternative … pure rage?May your undiluted fury fuel and motivate you into 2022 – which just happens to be a federal election year. Namaste. N.B. I am not a mental health professional.— Benjamin Law 羅旭能 (@mrbenjaminlaw) August 20, 2021

  12. Dr Chant effectively saying, in her giving her strongest support, that these latest “measures” have been on her agenda well before today.

  13. Police now have the power if they find anyone outside and LGA of concern without a reasonable excuse, they will be given an infringement but in order to return home as well. Which is extremely important. If someone enters and LGA of concern without excuse, not only will they be fined, they will be sent home and they will have to self isolate for 14 days.

    This is all about stopping the transmission of the virus from the areas of concern, those 12 LGA’s to the rest of Greater Sydney and certainly regional NSW. The police commission now has powers to the residential premises as a Covid risk

  14. Socrates @ #158 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 9:10 am

    D&M
    “People who lie to boost themselves – and academia has its share of them – especially about easily checkable facts, tend to have a tenuous relationship with reality, but they also tend to be very poor mangers.”

    Yes I once worked with a manager who said he was an engineer and in fact was not. It wasn’t just the dishonesty. He was hopeless.

    Was he British?

    They use it in a very different way over there which was quite confusing.

    Often someone who serviced and repaired machines was referred to as one.

  15. John Hewson will writing courageously about policies he would never have even contemplated introducing were the time machine kicked into gear and he won in March 1993.


  16. sprocket_says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 11:08 am
    Kerry Chant is present – looks like GladysB is finally taking her advice.

    Mind you, this shopping list of extra and changed rules is so confusing…

    Chant’s voice broke while talking about deaths due this outbreak.

  17. Socrates “Chant thanking the premier for adopting the new measures is the only part of the presser that sounds sincere. “

    Yes. The Premier has finally ditched August 28. Had to happen.
    Still mentioned the 6 million jabs (job 47% done). That’s got to go too.

  18. Socrates: ‘Chant thanking the premier for adopting the new measures is the only part of the presser that sounds sincere. She must feel like an expense auditor in Stuart Roberts’ office.’

    Brilliant.

  19. Barney

    “Was he British?”

    Yes he was! I don’t think the subterfuge was accidental though. He claimed knowledge he simply didn’t have. Thankfully he did not last long.

    Have a good day all.

  20. Earlier today on news.com.au:

    Victoria has again recorded 57 new Covid cases overnight.

    They include 55 local cases, and two who contracted the virus overseas.
    Alarmingly, just 25 have been in isolation for their entire infectious period, and just 49 of the locally-acquired cases are linked to known outbreaks.
    That means at least six are mystery cases.
    Read on for the latest Victorian Covid news and updates.

    I love the just 49 are linked line and the Alarmingly….

    Now for the NSW coverage:

    News South Wales has recorded a total of 642 new locally-acquired Covid cases – and at least 41 were infectious in the community.

    Ms Berejiklian says the vast majority of cases are still coming from southwest Sydney.

    There were four new deaths.

    There were 132,000 people vaccinated yesterday.

    Yesterday saw the state record 681 new cases.

    We’ll bring you more as we get it.

  21. One of the few benefits of this outbreak, especially in the Regions, is that it has well and truly wiped the smile off Bruz’s face.

  22. U.S. COVID update: More than 1,000 new deaths for 3rd day in a row as Florida reports backlog

    – New cases: 178,700 ………………………… – New deaths: 1,765

    – In hospital: 92,912 (+1,778)
    – In ICU: 22,887 (+378)

    643,112 total deaths now

  23. shellbell

    John Hewson will writing courageously about policies he would never have even contemplated introducing were the time machine kicked into gear and he won in March 1993.

    Well spotted.

    Doug Cameron called it the “political lobotomy” they give you when you enter parliament. Appears it is reversible on giving up your seat.

  24. Gladys, there was no “sudden change in the rate of infections over the last week or so”. It has been eminently predictable.
    She’s scrambling.

  25. Buuuuuuulshit Gladys

    Q what happened.
    A sudden increase in cases & police request… total Buuuuuuulshit Gladys
    Now “no single answer to the Delat” FFS

  26. From midnight tonight, South Australians will be able to have 20 people at home gatherings. ❤️
    Private gatherings held outside the home and not at licensed premises will remain capped at 50, but people will be allowed to drink while standing up at a density of one person per 2 square metres.
    For seated private functions at hotels, capacity remains at three people per 4 square metres.
    Read more: https://ab.co/3gjMwNv
    SA Police Commissioner Grant Stevens said South Australians needed to be prepared for restrictions to change again in the future, given the risk from interstate.
    “I must say, based on the health advice we have been briefed on today, the level of risk from New South Wales and Victoria particularly is very concerning,” he said.
    “We are certainly nowhere near being out of the woods on COVID-19.”

  27. Now all the stones have been overturned, those shadows of doubt are in for it, big time. Eight weeks late.

    This giggling excuse for a serious politician is a state embarrassment. I’m sorry Australia.


  28. sprocket_says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 11:11 am
    Spitting out the new rules with machine gun delivery…

    Still mentioning the 6 million jabs next week – 2 tier society it would appear.

    In the 8 LGAs – live under curfew in your ghetto
    In the silvertail suburbs – free to go out and flaunt your wealth

    The final Liberal dream of apartheid unfolding before our eyes in Sydney

    This.
    Furious emoji.

  29. Asha @ #144 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 11:03 am

    P1:

    Also, even if you believe otherwise, it does not follow that you should not have any.

    The problem with this argument is that Labor actually has lots of policies. I mean, fair enough if you don’t like them, but they are policies.

    Labor currently has no substantial climate change policies. None. They have 4 policies related to climate change on their web site – community batteries, EV subsidies etc etc. These are fine – but they are not climate change policies. And when you read their national platform, which is supposed to guide future policy development, it is long on support for the coal and gas industries, and also on carbon capture and storage and hydrogen, but surprisingly short on actually limiting the extraction and use of fossil fuels. However, it does use the word “superpower” 5 times. I think Labor must be living in the Marvel Universe. They are certainly not living in the real world.

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