Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan’s latest poll leans a little more heavily to Labor than other recent polling, while showing familiar patterns on its state breakdowns.

The formerly erratic Roy Morgan appears now to be in the regular habit of releasing fortnightly federal polling results, the latest of which encompasses a sample of 2747 respondents surveyed over the previous two weekends. This records little change on a strong result for Labor last time, with their two-party lead out slightly from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. Changes on the primary vote are negligible, with both major parties up half a point to 37.5%, the Greens stead on 12.5% and One Nation up half to 3.5%.

State two-party breakdowns are provided as usual: these show Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (a swing of about 4%), 60-40 in Victoria (about 7%), 54.5-45.5 in both Western Australia (a swing of about 10%) and South Australia (a swing of about 4%) and 57-43 in Tasmania (about 1%), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 11:13 am
    So police will be stopping everybody who’s leaving their home from 9pm to 5am, and again this is based on police feedback received in the last few days about the type of activity that’s unfortunately being carried out by a small number of people but as we said Delta doesn’t leave any room for error.

    This curfew is only for “concerned” LGAs. When a journalist asked why not extend it to whole of Greater Sydney, Gladys said that there are psychiatry decisions involved. So the people who are living outside concerned LGAs are shrinking violets and innocent people who won’t bite if you put a finger in their mouth.

  2. “Short, sharp lockdowns don’t always work,” says Gladys.

    Presumably long, lazy lockdowns do? That seems to have been her approach, if not her logic.

    Talk about shutting the gate after the virus has bolted.

  3. Gladys continues to eff it up (guardian comment):
    ‘So there was a “gathering” in Maroubra where 11 people have tested positive.
    But Maroubra isn’t in one of the LGAs with harshest lockdowns! Gee could there be a connection?
    Apply the strict measures and curfews across all Greater Sydney FFS!!’

  4. ItzaDream at 11:25 am

    This giggling excuse for a serious politician is a state embarrassment. I’m sorry Australia.

    Excellent idea for a new NSW number plate ‘slogan’ .
    NSW- State of Embarrassment

  5. Ok this is interesting from Fuller, now they can essentially lock people up for 14 days for being caught outside their lockdown LGA?

  6. Lizzie1 at 11:33 am

    She arrogantly asserts that other states will have to learn from the NSW example.

    She is absolutely right . Just not in the way the twit thinks. I have seen 3 states and NZ pointing to NSW as a warning about what can happen . When it comes to showing what not to do and what happens if you do not act quickly Gladys has been an excellent teacher.

  7. So, when yesterday Gladys promised an exciting new future she meant curfews, masks, and an extended lockdown.
    Gladys meet Alice.

  8. ““Short, sharp lockdowns don’t always work,” says Gladys.”

    ROTFL! 😀

    Here in Adelaide it is a lovely warm day today and I might go for a walk to the shops. Restrictions were eased after our one week lockdown, introduced less than 48 hours after the first Delta case was detected. We had zero new cases at the end of that week, fine since.

    A comedy writer should get the video of Gladys’ presser, put her answers in subtitles, and superimpose the Evita Soundtrack.

    “Don’t cry for me, Austra-l-ia…”
    “The truth is, I never led you.
    “All through my denial days, my mad insistence.
    “I said no lockdowns. Now social-distance”

  9. @ShoebridgeMLC tweets

    “Curfews will be introduced from 9pm to 5am to help reduce the moment of young people” – It’s now official NSW Government policy to not vaccinate young people but to arrest them #nswpol

    Again we ask: Where’s the public health advice on which this is based? If it exists we all deserve to see it.

  10. People have been waiting in shops for takeaway?? FFS.

    I can’t do that in rural Victoria.

    Shops either have you ring in beforehand or you put your order at a table outside the shop.

  11. guytaur:

    While I do shake my head at the NSW government once again shifting the blame for this disaster on everyone but themselves, a curfew definitely seems the right call given the circumstances.

  12. Wouldn’t it be easier to get the 8 LGA residents to sew a symbol on their clothes? Police could spot them, and if they persisted, give them something like a numbered tattoo on their wrist

  13. According to Gladys this whole disaster has been caused by “a handful of people doing the wrong thing”. And I agree. We even know who that handful of people are, don’t we? Her and her useless bloody government.

    They were warned weeks ago that this was going to happen if they didn’t crack down hard and fast. But their stupid gold standard sense of superiority didn’t allow that, until now they have been dragged kicking and screaming into doing what they should have done two months ago. They sowed the wind and now they are reaping the whirlwind.

  14. ‘Lizzie says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 11:33 am

    She arrogantly asserts that other states will have to learn from the NSW example.’
    _________________________________
    This is an entirely reasonable and irony free observation. Other states can learn that Morrison, Hunt, Frydenberg, Berejiklian and Hazzard intend to wipe out the economy and wreck the citizenry.

  15. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 11:43 am

    Wouldn’t it be easier to get the 8 LGA residents to sew a symbol on their clothes? Police could spot them, and if they persisted, give them something like a numbered tattoo on their wrist.”
    ______________________________________
    Perhaps a federation star with some sort of paling fence to go with it?

  16. When are PB people going to realise there are bugger all cases in the other LGAs Coincidence? I don’t think so yet they want to lump them all together.

    Don’t remember them having this 1 in all in approach during the Norther Beaches outbreak.

  17. Gladys actually really really wanted to say today : –
    I’ve completely fucked this response to this third wave of Covid.
    So now we will stop bullshitting everyday.
    The police have had to be called after this has spiralled out of control.
    The other State leaders have been proven to be correct.
    I’ve been proven to be a victim of my own foolery.
    Today I make these announcements knowing quite realistically that it is not enough but please I’m now moving in a better direction.
    So you’ll probably still be in lockdown in December.
    I thought Dudley Morrison was my friend, wrong again!

  18. We find out about some of the alleged behavior of foreign troops once the dust settles. Indiscriminate bombing, unarmed civilians, women and children accidently killed.

    The more people coming here from Afghanistan increases the risk of someone talking about behavior of our troops.

    Maybe the US can tip in another trillion so no decision makers can be charged with war crimes.

    History shows that destroying two cities and killing many civilians in Japan with the atom bomb can be overlooked. Funding for rebuilding etc and everyone looks the other way.

    Scummos usual behavior, we probably were never in the Middle East. Why should we get involved.

  19. Bob Lynch @ Friday, August 20, 2021 at 11:45 am

    Not they didn’t have a one size fits all for the Northern Beaches outbreak. It worked for the non-delta variant. It also worked because Northern Beaches had few services provided by people from out of area.

    How long do you want to wait to see if variable restrictions is the way to go during this outbreak? Could you provide a time period? Gladys B thought about two months. Obviously you think we should wait a little longer?

  20. @benraue tweets

    This isn’t a short sharp lockdown. There’s no end in sight. So imposing restrictions that, for plenty of people, are basically impossible to follow, is a recipe for people giving up and just ignoring them.

  21. @glengryon tweets

    Seriously: Give every young man in the affected LGAs a playstation and start a hotspot fortnite tournament with a few hundred k in prizes.

    This is it, the tweet that solves covid.

  22. “All 430,000 ACT citizens are in lockdown because Berejiklian couldn’t organize a root in a brothel.”

    What about a root in Wagga? Does that count?


  23. sprocket_says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 11:43 am
    Wouldn’t it be easier to get the 8 LGA residents to sew a symbol on their clothes? Police could spot them, and if they persisted, give them something like a numbered tattoo on their wrist

    I always had this nagging suspicion that when push comes to shove public officials in Australia will treat some section of Australian people as second class citizens . And unfortunately my suspicion came true. I am very sad about that.

  24. Mr Ed1 at 11:48 am

    W e find out about some of the alleged behavior of foreign troops once the dust settles. Indiscriminate bombing, unarmed civilians, women and children accidently killed.

    We ‘found out’ years ago.The air force dropping bombs onto weddings was a popular pastime for a number of years. As was dropping them on the ‘wrong’ house.Reports of such events died down but that may have been because it was no longer ‘news’.

  25. -@samanthamaiden tweets

    ACT chief minister @ABarrMLA warns re rollout to 16 to 39

    – PM @ScottMorrisonMP announced ‘eligibility’ without consulting states re supply
    – Pfizer appt booked out until mid October
    – vaccine takes time to be effective this re 70 per cent target
    – plan needed for kids

  26. p
    Yep. One of the reasons to hold a Royal Commission is to get the answer to a very specific set of questions:
    1. How may payments by the ADF of taxpayer funds were made to families?
    2. How many deaths and injuries of noncombatants did this involve?

  27. poroti
    There was an interesting meme to some of the bombings. Someone spotted someone who, like bin Laden, was unusually tall…

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