Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan’s latest poll leans a little more heavily to Labor than other recent polling, while showing familiar patterns on its state breakdowns.

The formerly erratic Roy Morgan appears now to be in the regular habit of releasing fortnightly federal polling results, the latest of which encompasses a sample of 2747 respondents surveyed over the previous two weekends. This records little change on a strong result for Labor last time, with their two-party lead out slightly from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. Changes on the primary vote are negligible, with both major parties up half a point to 37.5%, the Greens stead on 12.5% and One Nation up half to 3.5%.

State two-party breakdowns are provided as usual: these show Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (a swing of about 4%), 60-40 in Victoria (about 7%), 54.5-45.5 in both Western Australia (a swing of about 10%) and South Australia (a swing of about 4%) and 57-43 in Tasmania (about 1%), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. Captain Morrison spoke to Biggles of Britain. The Afghanistan War is now all about irregular and illegal movement of people through borders.

  3. guytaur @ #246 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 11:59 am

    -@samanthamaiden tweets

    ACT chief minister @ABarrMLA warns re rollout to 16 to 39

    – PM @ScottMorrisonMP announced ‘eligibility’ without consulting states re supply
    – Pfizer appt booked out until mid October
    – vaccine takes time to be effective this re 70 per cent target
    – plan needed for kids

    All tip, no iceberg.
    All announcement, no follow through.

  6. hazza4257 @ #229 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 11:45 am

    Not sure how many PBers will understand this one, but it’s a gem.

    I wouldn’t say they are the same … but I would say they are both pretty close to being equally useless as policies for addressing climate change. And if you actually read Labor’s national platform, it comes surprisingly close to calling for a “gas led recovery” …

    Labor recognises and supports the critical role that gas plays in the Australian economy. Labor recognises that gas has an important role to play in achieving Labor’s target of net zero emissions by 2050. Labor’s policies will support Australian workers in the gas extraction industry, building on Labor’s legacy of supporting sufficient and affordable gas supply for Australian industry and consumers. This includes support for new gas projects and associated infrastructure

  7. ScottyFromMarketing has to apply a hokey tag to every utterance…

    ‘Morrison said Australia is achieving vaccination rates of 300,000 per day, or “three times the MCG in one day”.

  8. Player One says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 11:30 am

    Very wisely, Labor are not going to elaborate on their intentions simply to gratify a Lib by any other name.

  12. guytaur says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 11:40 am
    @ShoebridgeMLC tweets

    “Curfews will be introduced from 9pm to 5am to help reduce the moment of young people” – It’s now official NSW Government policy to not vaccinate young people but to arrest them #nswpol

    This is an idiotic claim. Absolutely idiotic. Shoebridge is on the same lily pad as the dolts who campaign against vaccination.

  13. @CSWherrett tweets

    it appears that Gladys is facing the consequences (hundreds of cases of workplace transmission) of her actions (not paying people to stay home)

  14. Cat, or anyone with some knowledge of the ALP’s inner workings, please tell us what is happening to the NSW branch of party in preparation for the next state election. I live in the North Coast and have no idea who their leader at the moment is even. And I regard myself as an engaged voter.

  16. Q: Chant begging for understanding.

    Stages of loss/grief.
    Denial and isolation, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance……….we are up to bargaining and entering depression I see. 🙁

  18. sprocket at 12:14 pm

    ScottyFromMarketing has to apply a hokey tag to every utterance…

    ‘Morrison said Australia is achieving vaccination rates of 300,000 per day, or “three times the MCG in one day”

    How many Sydney Harbors is that ?

  19. N @ #261 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 12:21 pm

    guytaur says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 11:40 am
    @ShoebridgeMLC tweets

    “Curfews will be introduced from 9pm to 5am to help reduce the moment of young people” – It’s now official NSW Government policy to not vaccinate young people but to arrest them #nswpol

    This is an idiotic claim. Absolutely idiotic. Shoebridge is on the same lily pad as the dolts who campaign against vaccination.

    It’s political smartarsery is all.

  21. @timsout tweets

    Just about every expert, and the NSW government itself, acknowledges that there’s no evidence curfews have any effect. Yet curfews are introduced for southwest and western Sydney. People there are right to feel they’ve been treated harshly and unfairly. This is sadistic

  22. …and my Airbnb September reservation cancellations start rolling in…..thanks Gladys!…any free money for people in my situation? Nup.
    Maybe Scotty will let me raid my super again?

  25. pritu @ #263 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 12:26 pm

    Cat, or anyone with some knowledge of the ALP’s inner workings, please tell us what is happening to the NSW branch of party in preparation for the next state election. I live in the North Coast and have no idea who their leader at the moment is even. And I regard myself as an engaged voter.

    Hi pritu,
    NSW Labor is supposedly having a State Conference at the Sydney Town Hall in October, which looks likely to now be via Zoom. New policies will be codified then. The new leader is Chris Minns, who represents the Kogarah area of Sydney. He’s presently touching base with all the party members via a series of Zoom meetings. He’s also monitoring the Berejiklian government’s performance and trying not to let anything slip under the radar as far as they are concerned. Though it’s hard to hold them to account when Berejiklian has suspended parliament.

    Might I suggest you contact Janelle Saffin? She is the local Labor MP for the Northern Rivers area around Lismore. She might be able to keep you updated on things. 🙂

  26. Listening on the radio. Dan sounds very flustered today. Taylormade, you are so full of it. No, he was his normal measured self. Your Gold Standard on the other hand… Gee the force is strong in this one. What a dunderhead.

  28. shellbell @ #171 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 11:20 am

    John Hewson will writing courageously about policies he would never have even contemplated introducing were the time machine kicked into gear and he won in March 1993.

    One of Hewson’s most stressed policies was removing fuel excise, which would have lowered the price of petrol from about 68 cents per litre to 40 c.
    Would have done wonders for emissions.

  29. guytaurs at 12:35 pm

    @timsout tweets

    Just about every expert, and the NSW government itself, acknowledges that there’s no evidence curfews have any effect.

    Utter bullshit. Less person to person interaction = Less transmission. End of story.

  31. Malcolm Farr
    @farrm51
    ·
    9m
    Prem Anrews confirms Morrison announcement of vax for younger folk not run past prems./chief ministers. Talking ahead of what will be an interesting nat cab.

  32. I missed Gladys and SfM today but the latter is being repeated on ABC. Vaccine numbers numbers numbers and totally meaningless. By next week every Australian will have been vaccinated five times over.

  35. @timsout doesn’t like the kitchen sink approach to reducing mobility? Not keen on the precautionary principal? OK then, let us be evidence-based. The thing about evidenced based practice is someone needs to generate the evidence.

    The UK, US, Malta and Iceland are generating evidence on what happens at high vaccination rates.

    Let Sydney help generate evidence on curfews to limit mobility.

  36. Dr Chant asks ppl not to go for testing unless they have symptoms as the testers are getting overwhelmed. In Vic, Dan emphasises going for testing if you have symptoms.

    Obviously comparisons between states are useless.

  37. Between Andrews and Barr, it should be a lively national cabinet meeting today. Barr is hot on vax programs for children, vaccine supply and seeking unambiguous clarification of the 70 and 80% Doherty numbers.

  38. “It’s now up to every single Victorian to make the best possible choices to follow these rules so that we don’t get overrun with cases, so that we aren’t locked in till potentially the end of the year”
    ________________
    That includes State Labor MP’s fleeing the city for regional areas.

  39. @JereemyPoxon tweets

    Instead of “imposing a curfew” how about “imposing” $600 a week in everyone’s bank account #PayPeopleToStayHome

  41. Taylormade

    BTW, have you worked out how to get from Warrnambool to Gippsland? It’s rather a long trek though the Highlands!

  43. lizzie @ Friday, August 20, 2021 at 12:45 pm

    There is finally tacit admission that pathology testing is overwhelmed. This is evidenced by:

    1. the dropping of the 3 day testing requirements in a couple of the LGA hotspots
    2. the introduction of the rapid antigen testing option as an alternative to proof of vaccination.

    Pathology testing now joins contact tracing as being overrun. These two interventions were the two central planks of the “proportionate” NSW approach to COVID. Finally we are looking South for ideas.

  46. Kohler not holding back

    The Morrison government cajoled, or bullied, the Doherty Institute into concluding that opening up could start at 70 per cent of the adult population vaccinated, or just 54 per cent of the total, which is plainly wrong.

  47. ItzaDream

    Yes but the ratio has been there for some time now. It is changing a bit at the moment but for a long time Victoria has been stronger with the state vaccines and NSW stronger with the Cth component and I am curious why.

  50. CC
    I’m reading it that the viral load in a vaccinated person with Covid is much the same as the viral load of an unvaccinated person with Covid. We don’t know exactly what protection the vaccines provide from getting Covid in the first place though.

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