Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan’s latest poll leans a little more heavily to Labor than other recent polling, while showing familiar patterns on its state breakdowns.

The formerly erratic Roy Morgan appears now to be in the regular habit of releasing fortnightly federal polling results, the latest of which encompasses a sample of 2747 respondents surveyed over the previous two weekends. This records little change on a strong result for Labor last time, with their two-party lead out slightly from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. Changes on the primary vote are negligible, with both major parties up half a point to 37.5%, the Greens stead on 12.5% and One Nation up half to 3.5%.

State two-party breakdowns are provided as usual: these show Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (a swing of about 4%), 60-40 in Victoria (about 7%), 54.5-45.5 in both Western Australia (a swing of about 10%) and South Australia (a swing of about 4%) and 57-43 in Tasmania (about 1%), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. The NT DPP and Bret Walker SC for Constable Rolfe appearing at the moment before Justice Gleeson in the High Court about the statutory defence available to a police officer charged with murder.

  2. Morrison should have qualified his contribution on TV today : –
    I’m not in charges of State affairs.
    I’m heading back to hide in my cupboard.

  3. …The Morrison government cajoled, or bullied, the Doherty Institute into concluding that opening up could start at 70 per cent of the adult population vaccinated..,

    Have they have been ‘verballed’ . The 70% was modeled , other levels. Did they say it was OK to open up then or did they just provide numbers under that scenario ? I wonder why the modeled deaths is not mentioned by teh pollies ?
    Edit. Bugger, lost format. Page 17 of report for the ‘proper’ table
    .

    Table 5.1 Cumulative outcomes of interest over the first 180 days by achieved coverage threshold prior to transmission, for the ‘Oldest first’ vaccine allocation strategy.

    Vaccine Coverage 50% 60% 70% 80%
    Symptomatic infections 1,174,450 900,431 617,291 471,107
    Ward admissions 48,002 36,113 22,379 16,130
    ICU admissions* 11,465 8,523 5,002 3,494
    Deaths 10,311 7,276 3,563 2,309
    https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/DohertyModelling_NationalPlan_including_adendmum.pdf

  4. Prof. Peter Doherty
    @ProfPCDoherty
    ·
    3h
    Was just confirmed in discussion with ‘one who knows’ that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are being trialled now in kids down to 6 months in the Northern Hemisphere, with results expected by October or so

  6. So……have we covered this? Just quietly…. with Pfizer efficacy dropping off after 4-6 months, for a large number of people that will coincide with Morrison and Berejiklians Freedom Day. Are the booster supplies and roll out up to that as well as the need to start vaccinating younger peeps? Or is it tough luck for those who got vaccinated mid year?

  7. Shellbell @ #296 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 1:01 pm

    ItzaDream

    Yes but the ratio has been there for some time now. It is changing a bit at the moment but for a long time Victoria has been stronger with the state vaccines and NSW stronger with the Cth component and I am curious why.

    As the nominated PB Vactrakka, keeping us informed is appreciated.

  8. Taylormade @ #287 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 12:46 pm

    “It’s now up to every single Victorian to make the best possible choices to follow these rules so that we don’t get overrun with cases, so that we aren’t locked in till potentially the end of the year”
    ________________
    That includes State Labor MP’s fleeing the city for regional areas.

    You really are a nasty piece of work. A complete and utter Liberal flog.

    Still too embarrassed to fill in the rest of the story about that Victorian Labor MP?

    Okay, let me do it for you. That Labor MP has left her electorate to look after her husband who has multiple Melanoma cancers.

    You’d be all ‘Dictator Dan’ if it was a Liberal MP and the show was on the Right foot.

    The Victorian Liberal Party is rotten to the core. You exemplify that in spades, Taylormade.

    Oh, and how’s your holiday going, now that YOU have fled Melbourne for the regions?

    Flaming hypocrite.

  9. poroti @ Friday, August 20, 2021 at 1:11 pm

    “I wonder why the modeled deaths is not mentioned by teh pollies ?” Do you really? 😉

    I would say Table 5.2 on page 18 with the all adults vaccination strategy is more suitable now that we have dropped the phased approach. So 1,984 deaths with 70% coverage and optimal contact tracing and isolation.

    We need to remember that the cumulative number of deaths is only modelled for 180 days. Not even an annual death rate and if you look up to Figure 3.3 on page 17, the daily mortality rate has yet to peak at 180 days. But if it helps, there are only 45 children modelled to die in the first 180 days. No biggie! 🙁

    But I cannot stress this enough, the assumption of 65% effectiveness of onward transmission post vaccination needs to be updated. Then let’s see what comes out…

  15. I’ve just been thinking about it. If we need to keep vaccinating about ~6 months, considering how long it is taking to vaccinate the population, then we are going to have to have vaccination clinics open on a permanent basis!

  18. Shellbell says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 1:25 pm
    The All Black no show is a forfeit with a deemed score of 20-0 to Oz.

    If pressed the All Blacks can send over a 7 man team.. will still win.
    I blame Alan Jones

  19. Re: All Blacks

    McGowan wouldn’t have let them in anyway, they are now a plague state

    At least our couple of good players won’t get injured

  22. Alan Baxter
    @AlanBixter
    ·
    5m
    Level 2:
    The big mistake that the Victorian Government made in 2020 was to trust Richard Colbeck to do his job. Read the Royal Commission report.

  23. Sceptic @ Friday, August 20, 2021 at 1:17 pm

    Thank you for that tweet. If we can immunise down to 6 months, the eligible population increases. It may push out the timeline by a matter of a few months, with the benefit of decreased morbidity and mortality. I just hope the Coalition Federally and in NSW will be fearful enough of a voter backlash if they open earlier.

    We need to get this public health message out.

  24. This seems to be the big game changer in the current situation. None of our children are vaccinated yet and it seems to be the new frontier of this pandemic.

    @DanielAndrewsMP
    “There are 700 kids who have got COVID in New South Wales. There are kids that are in hospital in New South Wales that have got COVID. No children in our country are vaccinated. As a parent to every other parent, that should be motivation enough”.

  26. I’m out of the country and need an update, hearing lots of rumours

    I heard that the nsw premier delayed locking down for ages until there was a full blown outbreak, that there was a health expert in nsw that fed that bad strategy and that even now the lockdown is less strict than victoria despite victoria being earlier in an outbreak?

    Does anyone know of any modelling that would estimate under current restrictions when peak infections will occur?

    The death rate so far looks low which is good news, hopefully due to a large number of elderly being vaccinated rather than it just being early in the pandemic

    I’m worried it gets so large it becomes impossible for it to not cross state borders

    can anyone give a summary of what has happened and what is expected to happen for this concerned expatriot?

  27. Sceptic, only 11 days ago the COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce gave it the thumbs down. I would suggest this reeks of Hunt in search of an announceable. I am not saying the TGA has buckled under political pressure however, we are only talking 7k doses of something the TGA has issued provisional authority for use under fairly strict conditions and circumstances.
    https://www.tga.gov.au/media-release/tga-provisionally-approves-glaxosmithklines-covid-19-treatment-sotrovimab-xevudy

  29. Solo Monk@JJKALE2 · 1h
    Dan Andrews:
    “The federal government is entitled to make announcements. I’m entitled to point out the facts.”
    OUCH!!!

  32. “The All Black no show is a forfeit with a deemed score of 20-0 to Oz.”
    Maybe Gladys can orchestrate an outbreak of bubonic plague in NSW the next time the All Blacks are due to play Australia. Easy 20 points. Don’t tell Alan Jones, he might pass it on to Gladys.

  35. BK says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 12:45 pm
    Between Andrews and Barr, it should be a lively national cabinet meeting today. Barr is hot on vax programs for children, vaccine supply and seeking unambiguous clarification of the 70 and 80% Doherty numbers.

    Andrew Barr is a fairly boring person to listen to. He has a slow drawl and rarely speaks with emotion but can certainly convey a message – in this case about vaccination numbers and a strong criticism of what is happening in NSW. Like Dan Andrews, he replies to even the most inane questions and doesn’t walk out on press conferences. Also he tends to throw in a nice word about lockdown money provided by Frydenberg – doesn’t Dan do that as well sometimes? (A bit of political wedging going on here?)

  39. Interesting to see how hard McGowan will fight for AFL grand final.

    Maybe it will be Swans against whomever at Adelaide Oval


  42. hazza4257 says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 11:45 am

    Not sure how many PBers will understand this one, but it’s a gem.

    It about sums it all up, the Liberals and Labor offer policies, the greens offer nothing more than claiming different policies are the same. It has pretty much for ever been thus.

  43. Mayor in Sydney’s west launches stinging attack on NSW government
    The mayor of Cumberland City Council, in Sydney’s west, is absolutely livid at the NSW government.

    Councillor Steve Christou told the ABC he had a phone call a minute before today’s press conference from the government informing him of the changes.

    He said the government had “lost complete control” and were acting like a dictatorial regime.

    We understand that Cumberland is a hot spot the moment. But these are now extended lockdowns. We are into week eight, there has been a lockdown extended until the end of September now, and now we are facing curfews.

    This is the poorest community in New South Wales. They cannot afford to pay their mortgage, their rent, their bills, or put food on the table to feed their children. Council staff are often, I’m not going to name them, dipping into their pockets because they are receiving phone calls from people who cannot afford to feed themselves anymore.

    It is heartbreaking and it is frustrating because I received a phone call from the premier’s advisor at 10:59am, the minute, just as she was walking onto the press conference, to tell me of these measures. And it is not on. This community gets burned at 11am every day when the premier does have press releases, and we are not being consulted, and I invite the premier or one of her senior ministers to come out to Cumberland City Council and pay a visit and put her feet ground and come out with me so she can see how this community is being affected. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/aug/20/covid-australia-live-update-afghanistan-evacuation-perth-national-cabinet-nsw-victoria-act-vaccine-targets-freedom-restrictions-gladys-berejiklian-scott-morrison

  44. The western NSW region, where the “vast majority” of cases are Aboriginal people, recorded 27 new cases to 9pm last night: 21 in Dubbo, 2 in Bourke, 2 in Gilgandra and 2 in Goodooga., bringing the total number of active cases to 194.

    90% of all the cases are under 50, half of them younger than 20, and 65% are Aboriginal young people and children.

    Four people are in hospital and one is in intensive care requiring a ventilator.

    To add to the pressure on local health services, 131 staff are currently in isolation after having been potentially exposed to covid.

    ADF forces have arrived to ramp up the vaccination rollout in Dubbo and smaller communities like Walgett, Goodooga, Bourke and Brewarrina.

    Dubbo’s mass vaccinations will begin tomorrow, and other communities will have theirs from Monday.

    Officials are forecasting 10 thousand Pfizer doses will be administered over the next 8 – 10 weeks.

    “Nobody is going to miss out,” NSW Police Western Region Commander Geoff McKechnie said.

    ADF personnel were clinicians, there to help with vaccination, not to enforce compliance, Colonel Warwick Young told the media, thoughADF would lend support to police conducting welfare checks around Dubbo.

    Cases are spreading in the region – sewage detection has been positive in Coonamble, which has a high Aboriginal population, as well as Bathurst, Parkes, Narromine and Cobar. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/aug/20/covid-australia-live-update-afghanistan-evacuation-perth-national-cabinet-nsw-victoria-act-vaccine-targets-freedom-restrictions-gladys-berejiklian-scott-morrison

  46. Bunnings is closing from Monday in greater Sydney, the company have confirmed in a statement.

    Trade customers will be able to still access stores, but retail customers will have to purchase items online using click and deliver or contactless pick-up services.

    You may recall that Bunnings and the Reject Shop still being open for business led to some interesting exchanges between NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian and some of my press brethren earlier this month.

  50. Fortnite is so 2018.

    Apparently they’re trying to cash-in on the Among Us craze with a new mode in the game where you have to “find the impostor” – which is not that surprising as Fortnite wasn’t originally a battle royale game either, until that genre started rapidly growing in popularity and they saw dollar signs.

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