Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.
The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.
Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.
The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
torchbearer says:
Thursday, September 30, 2021 at 8:25 am
Satire I assume
Last Morgan was used by some of the usual suspects to show that the Fowler decision was hurting Labor.
If that was at all true (I argued for MOE at the time….which seems the more likely explanation in the light of this one) then it’s washed through the system.
I also think that, as he so often does, Malcolm Turnbull is over-egging the subs pudding just so that he can poke Morrison in the eye.
Yep. But nothing to see here response from much of the MSM.
Mike Carlton
So @TurnbullMalcolm skinned and gutted Morrison at the NPC today. Blood and entrails all over the sawdust.
It’s unprecedented. Never has an ex-PM so thoroughly and publicly eviscerated his successor of the same party.
The Murdochracy will be apoplectic.
C@t
It’s not just Turnbull. Rudd and Keating are on the same page.
Boerwar @ 8:23
Orrrr he could take a cue from this ‘ad’ . A nice touch being that he was with the NZ tourism lot when the ‘100%’ thingy was started. You’ll be shocked to discover he tried to claim credit for it. Even more shocked when you learn he did no such thing 😆
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xUYbI64QHI
Good grief Victoria has reported 1438 cases today!
500 more than yesterday.
VicGovDH
@VicGovDH
Reported yesterday: 1,438 new local cases and 0 cases acquired overseas.
– 34,323 vaccines administered
– 65,497 test results received
– Sadly, 5 people with COVID-19 have died
The vic CHO has been telling us for weeks to expect cases in the thousands.
It still has surprised me that it is coming to pass.
zoomster says:
Thursday, September 30, 2021 at 8:29 am
Last Morgan was used by some of the usual suspects to show that the Fowler decision was hurting Labor.
———————–
Do not know how Fowler would hurt labor , Public are not that concern about preselections
‘sprocket_ says:
Thursday, September 30, 2021 at 7:12 am
A bit more of Savva on Scott…
‘Morrison has left it late…’
________________________
Nothing new there. SOP for Scott.
Cat
“ I also think that, as he so often does, Malcolm Turnbull is over-egging the subs pudding just so that he can poke Morrison in the eye.”
I agree. Turnbull has two motives. First Morrison knifed him to get the leadership, though it was less obvious at the time. Second Turnbull signed the French sub contract, which was now clearly a disaster.
Turnbull’s attack on Morrison’s handling of the contract also distances Turnbull from blame if we are stuck with a bill for $3 or $4 billion in compo when the French claim is settled.
Thanks as always for the roundup BK. Have a good day all.
Victoria at 8:33 am
SfM has this guy behind him though.
p
Still good for a belly laugh every time I see it.
Victoria says:
Thursday, September 30, 2021 at 8:38 am
Protestors and the union.
It was inevitable with the covidiot protests over the past few weeks.
Superspreading events and all that.
Thanks for nothing to the pathetic media who aided and abetted this.
Just under 1400 cases in Vic being reported by Aunty.
victoria
It is most unfortunate that the t & trace system can barely cope with these large numbers, because we cannot prove that the anti-vaxxers and protesters have contributed to the rise. Not that it would change anyone’s behaviour, unfortunately.
zerlo
Yes. The covidiots who were supposedly protesting freedom, caused superspreading events.
The media has been atrocious as always.
The question is why are vaccination levels in NSW leading the Nation?
The procurer and distributor of vaccines (plural) is the federal government
The States and Territories can only administer what they are given
What they are given is what they are given which includes the brand name on the vaccine – noting there is a popularity factor between brands
So has NSW been further advantaged by receiving the “popular brand”?
It is noted the Victorian government has promoted the availability of the less popular brand including the best vaccine is the vaccine in your arm
Whoops. The case numbers are over 1400.
Lizzie
It is already known that some of the protestors are actually being treated in hospital for covid.
The fact that CFMEU officials now have covid from that initial protest outside the offices.
Protestors were there for hours.
I have also received info from those in the know.
The protests were a superspreading event.
Sigh.
Victoria @ #53 Thursday, September 30th, 2021 – 8:33 am
Sorry, but I haven’t trusted Keating’s judgement since his outburst during the 2019 election campaign. Kevin Rudd’s stance I’m not so sure about. He’s a Labor man and campaigner for his team through and through, so maybe he’s taking the opportunity to give Morrison a kicking? 🙂
Thanks, BK
‘The Chinese Government is making progress in achieving a reduction in carbon emissions through its technology and energy sectors, writes Professor John Quiggin.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/china-makes-progress-in-fight-against-climate-change,15566‘
_______________________________
I see that the Comrades have suckered lots of people. Again. China’s CO2 emissions are increasing. That is not ‘progress’. That is regress. The Wuhan Lab Cover Up Comrades are now setting themselves up for Glasgow Glory.
Vic,
It would be nice if Dan Andrews got a bit of the mongrel in him at the press conference today and laid the blame for the increase in cases squarely where it rests. Name and shame the bastards.
Do not know how Fowler would hurt labor , Public are not that concern about preselections
These types of issues only hurt political parties if the operators of the Noise Machine decide that they want them to.
C@t
Andrews cant win, no matter what he says.
The media in Victoria have been feral from the get go.
He is either too harsh or not harsh enough.
It is relentless and exhausting.
When BLM March occurred. The media were all over it saying it was a superspreading event etc. When in fact it wasnt at all.
But yet with these actual covidiots who are a mix of right wing nutters, covidiots and the like, the media were very supportive of them initially.
Until the ferals went to the shrine of remembrance and it was too hard for the media to spin it in their favour
Victoria @ #68 Thursday, September 30th, 2021 – 8:45 am
The freedom to get sick. 🙄
It is time for a government to hold the media responsible for the spread of the virus, if they are found to be encouraging the protest
C@t
Yep. To get sick and overrun our hospitals.
Sigh
But yet with these actual covidiots who are a mix of right wing nutters, covidiots and the like, the media were very supportive of them initially.
Until the ferals went to the shrine of remembrance and it was too hard for the media to spin it in their favour
Because the media these idiots consume is THEIR media. Don’t bite the hand that feeds you. And pays your bills.
Scott
The media has continually undermined everything the govt has done to keep this virus in check.
It is day in and day out.
I will never forget it. It has been beyond disgraceful.
If Gladys shows the tiniest sign of gloating over the Vic figures, I may not be responsible for my reaction.
Boerwar
Before you get too excited about ‘The Comrades’ remember this. That China’s emissions would continue to increase was always part of the model at the COPs etc. Everyone was on board with it and it would not prevent us reaching the required goals. The Comrades’ promise was to reduce their ‘carbon intensity’ per unit of GDP. Their stated aim being to reduce it to at or below that of Japan. Sooooo the big question should be whether their carbon intensity is falling as per promises.
the stupidity of the Bad Gladys/Sainted Dan gets exposed for what it is.
Scott 1 at 8:54 am
@*$^&$!!! Rupert and his slimy orcs worked hard to encourage non compliance with the rules and build resentment to them.
Lurker
Likewise the stupidity of the Sainted Gladys/Bad Dan.
lizzie says:
Thursday, September 30, 2021 at 9:03 am
Lurker
Likewise the stupidity of the Sainted Gladys/Bad Dan.
_______
Of course. They have both made some big mistakes but I don’t think either of them are in danger of not being re-elected.
Boy does Dan owe Gladys an apology. What a momental f up.
If the number in Vic. today is real, and not some kind of quirk in reporting of the data, there are hard days coming for Victoria. It took NSW 87 days to go from 0 to its peak of 1599 cases. Victoria is at day 80 of its current outbreak, with 1438 cases and Reff now at an alarming 1.50, so unless something changes very quickly, the Vic. outbreak is going to be of much bigger scale than the NSW outbreak. Given that Sydney and Melbourne are about the same size, have very similar social distancing measures, and have similar vaccination rates at this stage of their outbreaks, what’s different about Melbourne? You’d have to think that people’s behaviour in Melbourne is what’s different. How many get-togethers were there to watch the Demons and Dogs last Saturday?
Not financing new coal power electricity generation is a fairly low bar for “progress.”
The youngest coal fired power plant in Australia was built in 2007, and we’ve built only 5 since 1994.
I might have to have a chat with John about this one.
It should be noted that there was also a potential superspreading event in the Latrobe region. Across 19 households there was a grand final get together.
The city of Latrobe was locked down a few days ago.
Victoria @ #78 Thursday, September 30th, 2021 – 8:53 am
The Hun has 2 articles on its landing page specifically attacking Dan.
One basically asking can he be charged with the worksafe breaches, the other generally attacking him. Nothing about Gladys in the bad days. Open up Open up Open up Doesn’t matter how many it kills.
They can’t see dissonace of that and reporting on the full hospitals
michael @ #91 Thursday, September 30th, 2021 – 9:05 am
It wouldn’t be in Victoria if Gladys had done her job properly.
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, September 30, 2021 at 8:49 am
Vic,
It would be nice if Dan Andrews got a bit of the mongrel in him at the press conference today and laid the blame for the increase in cases squarely where it rests. Name and shame the bastards.
________________
Victorians are sick of the blame game. We are way past that. We want to know what the hell Andrews is going to do to bring the #’s down.
Parramatta Moderate says:
Thursday, September 30, 2021 a
Given that Sydney and Melbourne are about the same size, have very similar social distancing measures, and have similar vaccination rates at this stage of their outbreaks, what’s different about Melbourne? You’d have to think that people’s behaviour in Melbourne is what’s different. How many get-togethers were there to watch the Demons and Dogs last Saturday?
____________
It’s an interesting question. Possibly it is lockdown fatigue, Melbourne having endured a far longer period under heavy restrictions overall.
micheal
Gladys owes Victorians and Australians an apology , if It wasn’t for the nsw incompetence of allowing the virus to spread,the rest of country would have some control
The media seem to be treating the Covid cases as some sort of contest between Vic and NSW, which is how they treat all politics, of course. Selling their product is so much more important than protecting people from more harm.