Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan finds Labor back up after a weaker result last fortnight, while Essential Research comes through on nuclear submarines and its usual questions on COVID-19 management.

Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.

The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.

Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.

The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,342 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Kakuru says:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 5:52 pm

    Instead I watched the entire series of “The Newreader” for the second time. Absolutely brilliant. Stars Anna Torv (also in “The Fires”) who took my breath away – for all the right reasons.
    __________________
    She is in the Netflix show Mindhunter. Truly brilliant, well at least the first season. And she was amazing in it.

  2. lizzie says:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 5:37 pm
    Casting my eye over tonight’s TV offerings, I see ABC has “The Fires”. Would anyone who endured the horror really enjoy reliving it? I can’t even watch the shorts because they are so scary.
    —————-
    Hi Lizzie. I watched the first episode and it exceeded my expectations. Well drawn credible characters and gave some insight fir a city slicker like me as to how CFA/RFS might work and what they go through. I’ll definitely watch the rest of the series. However it is scary at some points and I imagine for anyone living in a bushfire prone area it might be too hard to watch.

  3. New South Wales Treasurer Dominic Perrottet is set to become the state’s next premier.

    Mr Perrottet has secured a deal that will see the Minister for Western Sydney, Stuart Ayres, become the deputy Liberal leader, with Environment Minister Matt Kean becoming Treasurer.

    At a press conference on Sunday evening, Mr Perrottet said he was putting his name forward to become Liberal leader, and therefore Premier, at a party room meeting on Tuesday.

    However, the ABC understands a deal has been done that will see the vote be a formality.

  4. Pork Barilaro is gone then?.. Friendlyjordie will be doing his next instalment, another cheap bottle of champers perhaps.

  5. Kakuru says:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 6:14 pm

    Thanks Lurker. I gotta check out Mindhunter.
    _________
    Oh it’s incredible. It’s about the beginnings of the Behavioral Science Unit at the FBI who basically discovered that there was such a thing as serial killers and how they first attempted to profile and catch them in the early 70s.

  6. Bloody Heffron Park is where that Sydney Uni lady racer with the long blond plat propped in the straight, and brought down a bunch, including self, with a trip to ITU for my troubles. And boy, she had the biggest arse ever.

  7. max

    I watch the events at the time of the fires because I just can’t look away, but I don’t want to relive it. The danger has also increased so much through global warming that fire is no longer the same. I’m scared every summer.

  8. I wonder if one small positive legacy of COVID might be that people rediscover the pleasure in picnics/hanging out in parks and reserves. I took my push bike out to the limit of my 15k bubble this arvo and was really surprised at the number of people sitting out in the sun in the parks with picnic rugs, eskies, the whole deal. Felt like way more than what you’d normally see in a Melbourne Spring. True to form the sun didn’t last and I came home drenched by riding the last 5k through steady rain

  9. Looking at Covid Live on the worldwide vaccination rates, Scomo has now passed Brazil and Morocco yesterday as the race continues. Aust at 112,762 per 100k for total doses delivered. New Zealand has stopped to a walk. The USA is not far ahead now.

  10. In addition to UAP’s mailouts, Anti-Lockdown/Anti-Vax groups have been actively spreading disinformation in areas like Hume. These groups are using covid, vax and lockdown concerns to draw “normies” into the broader alt-right movement.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-06/fears-misinformation-targeting-australias-diverse-communities-/100405706

    “Dr Kaz Ross is an Asian studies specialist, and an independent researcher into far-right extremism, conspiracy theories and digital activism.

    She said certain groups had realised marginalised communities, some that don’t have English as their first language, were having difficulty receiving health messages.

    “The anti-vaxxers have worked out that they can move into these communities,” Dr Ross told ABC News Breakfast.

    She explained they often appeared to be kind and compassionate people presenting balanced information when they were actually presenting anti-vaccine disinformation.

    Dr Ross said anti-vax groups were purposefully going into communities at the centre of outbreaks.

    “Melbourne’s northern suburbs, they hang around those places, they stick up fake QR codes, so that if people think that they’re QR coding into the supermarket [but] they’re actually clicking through to an anti-vax site,” she said.”

  11. James Dunstan
    @snowycats
    ·
    3m
    Perotter sounds like he is a far right wing version of J Howard. Totally opposed to SSM, abortion, social reforms, climate action, foreign aid, asylum seekers being treated properly, welfare spending. Good luck NSW – you will need it.

    Makes me wonder what deal has been done that gives this result. (I admit I know nothing about NSW politics).

  12. RonniSalt Retweeted

    Margaret Morgan ✒Books Syringe
    @Monocotyledon
    So along with this homophobia, opposition to abortion & assisted dying, & climate denialism, Perrottet believes that social security is to blame for the “decline in marriage” delinquency, dysfunction, crime and family breakdown.

    Come back Gladys all is forgiven

  13. NSW, welcome your nutter premier :

    Australia’s bloated welfare system is not only putting us on a Greek-style debt path, but is also partly to blame for rising divorce rates and declining fertility, according to NSW finance minister Dominic Perrottet.

    A quick skim and he’s also anti- : abortion; euthanasia ; climate change…
    Sign the bring back gladys petition 🙂

  14. C@tmomma says Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 7:39 am

    The Doobie Brothers, Elton John, America, Glenn Campbell, Rodriguez

    Talking of Rodriguez, if you’ve never watched “Searching for Sugar Man” then, to quote Molly, do yourself a favour…

  15. Vogon Poet says:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 6:30 pm

    A quick skim and he’s also anti- : abortion; euthanasia ; climate change…
    Sign the bring back gladys petition
    ____________
    Sounds a bit like the Labor Deputy Premier of Victoria James Merlino.

  16. Boerwar says Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 9:51 am

    After 8 years in government this Government DOES NOT HAVE A PLAN FOR CO2.
    How fucking incompetent is that?

    I was listening to Katharine Murphy’s most recent podcast where she interviewed the NSW Environment Minister. He talked about transitioning the grid, etc. It wasn’t a bad interview but what struck me was that we should really have been doing all this 20 years ago. The problem is we’ve had LNP Governments for 14 of the last 20 years actively blocking efforts to battle climate change.

  17. “The whole state is grieving because people respected her decency and honesty ”
    Are they grieving over losing a decent and honest Premier, or grieving because they no longer believe her to be decent and honest? Howard’s statement was somewhat ambiguous.

  18. Simon Banks
    @SimonBanksHB
    ·
    40m
    So @Dom_Perrottet
    who is well known as a “let it rip” politician when it comes to #Covid_19

    Just refused to endorse @gladysB’s re-opening plan if he is elected Leader on Tuesday

    Well, this could be interesting.

  19. Lurker @ #2225 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 5:35 pm

    Vogon Poet says:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 6:30 pm

    A quick skim and he’s also anti- : abortion; euthanasia ; climate change…
    Sign the bring back gladys petition
    ____________
    Sounds a bit like the Labor Deputy Premier of Victoria James Merlino.

    Looks like us Queenslanders are indeed the greatest nation on earth, the most most progressive Labor state

  20. lizzie @ #2199 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 5:59 pm

    ItzaDream

    Sorry to hear that.
    Every time a bird is injured by hitting a window here, I feel so guilty that we have built obstacles within their habitat to kill them. Juvenile rosellas are the most frequent (not weekly, thank goodness) as they fly so fast and haven’t yet sussed out the shape of the house.

    Next time, we’ll see if the cardboard box sleep over helps. I know that guilt feeling too. We’ve never had any rosella trouble that I remember, mainly little birds, like the Eastern Spinebill.

  21. Has anyone ever asked Clive if he is vaccinted? He’s 67 years old, seriously overweight and a prime candidate for several “pre existing conditions”, including high blood pressure, heart disease and type 2 diabetes. He’d be an idiot not to be vaccinated. Or does he actually believe the crap he’s spreading?

  22. lizzie
    I watched about a third of the first episode of fires.
    The fire fighting training was close to absurd.
    The love interest element was laboured.
    Having been there and done that, the start of the fire fighting was at the wankish end.
    If you want to douse any irrational fear of fires the show is a goer, IMO.

  23. ‘ItzaDream says:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 6:39 pm

    lizzie @ #2199 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 5:59 pm

    ItzaDream

    Sorry to hear that.
    Every time a bird is injured by hitting a window here, I feel so guilty that we have built obstacles within their habitat to kill them. Juvenile rosellas are the most frequent (not weekly, thank goodness) as they fly so fast and haven’t yet sussed out the shape of the house.
    ….’
    ________________________
    There are plenty of rosellas. Swift Parrots hitting windows, which they do at speed, not so much.

  24. What is it with the LNP’s obsession with hard line conservative religious types as leaders. I mean it’s not like they make up a good % of the population, the opposite in fact.

  25. Just watched Perrotot for the first time… He just seemed weird. Closes his eyes half the time when he speaks, has a weird soft lilt in his voice…odd

  26. All I can say is Perottet better watch his p’s and q’s, else the hungry Moderates will dump him faster than a Morrison backflip.

  27. Could someone do a statistical t-test on the proportion of Pentecostals in the ministry compared the Pentecostals in the whole country. I’m sure there will be a MONSTROUS significant difference.

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