Writing in InQueensland, press gallery veteran Dennis Atkins lays out the case for a November 27 election, observing that the imminent passage of technical electoral law legislation will “put the final duck in place for Morrison to call an election from the next weekend, with an announcement on either Saturday, October 23 or the following day”. With New South Wales’ super Saturday of state by-elections sure to be set for December 4, this would be the only feasible date for an election this year, at a time when “the balance of risk tilts further and further towards a poll in 2021” – at least in Atkins’ assessment.
Conversely, James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reckons the by-elections have “dramatically shrank (sic) the chances of an early federal election”. Unspecified “insiders” point to the risks of “election fatigue”, together with the hope that the government’s stocks might be boosted by the opening of national borders early next year and summer weather keeping case numbers within acceptable limits.
Other news:
• As noted in the post below, Andrew Constance will resign from his state seat of Bega to contest preselection for the corresponding federal seat of Gilmore, which Fiona Phillips gained for Labor in 2019 by a 2.6% margin after a 3.3% swing against the trend. Constance is particularly helpful for the Liberals in this seat due to the sympathetic media attention he received after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the 2019/20 bushfires, which devolved into a public relations disaster for Scott Morrison. However, he will first have to face a local preselection ballot, which the state party is loath to deny its members after imposing Warren Mundine on them in 2019, only for him to lose the seat. He has a rival contender lined up in Paul Ell, an associate with law firm RMB Lawyers. The Guardian reports Ell has “strong support of moderates in the branch”, such that “some senior party sources say an intervention will be needed to ensure Constance is preselected”.
• There has been much speculation that Gladys Berejiklian could line up as the Liberal candidate for Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall in 2019. However, David Crowe of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a consensus that this will not be feasible until the Independent Commission Against Corruption brings down the findings of investigation into her, presumably under the assumption that such findings would be favourable, which it is not likely to do for several months. The Daily Telegraph reports the preselection front-runner is Jane Buncle, a Manly barrister and factional moderate who is “understood to believe climate change is real”, although a number of others are named as potentially competitive starters.
• The West Australian reports Liberal MP Melissa Price had no trouble seeing off a preselection challenge for her seat of Durack from Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard, winning the party ballot by 47 votes to three.
• Karen Grogan, national political coordinator with the United Workers Union and Left faction convener, has been officially confirmed to fill the South Australian Labor Senate vacancy caused by the death of Alex Gallacher on August 29.
• The Age/Herald have published Newspoll-style quarterly breakdowns of federal voting intention by state from their regular monthly Resolve Strategic polling. This might have been interesting if they had included results from the smaller states, but they are in fact only provided for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, breakdowns for which are already provided in the regular monthly release.
Sohar at 9:24 am
All part of the ‘disappearing’ of covid. The daily Health Dept covid table yesterday did not mention deaths except for giving a “total deaths’ .
In comments about Laura Tingle being the only ABC journalist holding the government to account, there is mention of how Emma Alberici was treated could have been a sobering warning to others to toe the LNP line.
“In 2021 the LNP govt appointed former News Corp chief Peter Tonagh & Ch 7 executive Mario D’Orazio to the ABC board
https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-tonagh-fiona-balfour-mario-d-orazio-join-abc-board-20210516-p57se4.html?__twitter_impression=true
Began in 1977 with IPA‘s Leonie Kramer joining ABC board.
Howard picks: Albrechtsen, Windshuttle, Kroger
Quasar
Yuck, what a vile collection.
”
watson watchsays:
Thursday, October 7, 2021 at 8:41 am
Paul Toole has connections . . . on the inside.
https://www.westernadvocate.com.au/story/327101/lengthy-jail-time-for-mps-siblings/
”
As per above article
“TWO brothers of Bathurst MP Paul Toole have been jailed for running a major drugs syndicate in Newcastle.
Joshua Toole, 28, and Kurt Toole, 22, admitted trading large quantities of cannabis and the party drug methylamphetamine in 2010.”
Imagine a Labor MP let alone a minister has 2 siblings convicted on drug trafficking. The Murdoch Press, Costello 9 Fax and Stokes 7 news will go berserk till that politician resigns from parliament.
Once Bathurst used to be Labor seat.
laughtong
This is the best I can do.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/ibac-scrutiny-on-andrews-over-firefighters-union-deal-20211005-p58xhm.html
Savva is good value though her body language alone is sufficient to inform of what Berejiklian thinks of Morrison. And if he thinks Palaszczuk will bend to his political imperatives, he’s got another think coming. She won’t, for example, be opening up prematurely to suit Morrison’s election agenda. If nothing else positive, the pandemic has shown how impotent a prime minister can be when faced with so-called recalcitrant premiers, chief minsiters – who said that federalism is anachronistic(?).
Details of deaths in NSW will be announced both per day and cumulatively at 11am via twitter and/or oral presentation as they have been for a time.
Victoria does not include in its table cumulative deaths and does not otherwise report it.
I dunno what the internals are telling the govt, but they must be reasonably confident if they’re even contemplating a November election. It seems counter intuitive to me that people would reward them for coming out of extended lock downs and restrictions caused in large part by their stuff ups, but I suppose stranger things have happened.
I guess we need to start looking from the ground up at seats which are likely to be picked up or lost.
Qld, I can’t see how Labor could do worse than last time, when big boomer energy got the coalition over the line, in keeping with the general uselessness and selfishness of that generation. That combined with the big brained progressives thinking it was a good idea to drive up through regional towns and celebrate that people there might lose their livelihoods. Genius stuff. Much cleverness.
I guess Longman and Brisbane are reasonable shouts – any locals up there who could share a thought? Can’t see Dutton losing at all, despite how wonderful Ali France is. Is there any realistic thoughts of Lilley, Blair or Moreton falling? Like I said, I can’t see Labor doing worse than last time in Redneck Wonderland. Maybe Entsch leaving with a big personal following might see Labor with a chance. Early prediction – net two seat gain to the good guys.
NSW – Gilmore would be very much in play if Constance runs. He’s a proper local and seems pretty well regarded. Could see it bucking a trend. Labor has picked a really good candidate in Robertson, I reckon it could go. Reid has some areas which were part of the heaviest lock down LGAs, so there might be some movement there, though there are some real Tory filth stronghold areas in it. Lindsay is on 5% plus but was hit pretty hard. You’d think it’s a shot. Can’t see Banks or Bennelong going, frankly. I presume someone like Mick Fuller will stand in Hughes vs Kelly and win that seat pretty easily too. Early call – net gain of two to the good guys.
Vic – not sure there’s as much low hanging fruit as people seem to think. No way Frydenberg loses. It just won’t happen. Hope Labor doesn’t waste energy running hard there. Don’t think Higgins will go either. Katie Allen has done a fair bit to try to distance herself from a lot of the govt rubbish. Reckon she will hang on. I think Chisholm will go Labor. I ardently hope Sukkar and Hunt lose, but the latter certainly won’t. Net gain – one
SA – hard to call as the State govt seems to have been pretty popular and has kept its head down re its covid measures, which we all know are the same as Qld, WA and Tassie. Boothby probably the only chance, but think it will hold. Early call – status quo.
Tassie – again, pretty popular State govt, otherwise I would reckon Labor could have picked up two. Will make an early call of one gain (Bass).
NT – status quo
WA – a lot of seats there would ordinarily not be in the firing line, but by all reports the Libs are so massively on the nose that they’ll be scrambling incredibly hard to keep Hasluck, Stirling and Pearce. I don’t think they will, frankly. Can see all three of those plus Swan going at this stage. Early call – net gain of four.
Overall, a net gain of ten seats. And keep i mind I’m probably being optimistic and viewing it through rose coloured glasses.
I think the Indies will hold their seats, with Steggall probably the most in danger. And if she or Haines lose to the Tories, it makes it really hard for Labor to win imo.
It’s not that there may not be a swing, it’s that I don’t see it being big enough for Labor to have a landslide. If they win, I think it’ll be tight.
Happy for others to comment on any other seats they think are in the hunt.
The must some ‘syndrome’ to describe his compulsion to tell blatant lies.
“Once Bathurst used to be Labor seat.”
Bathurst will be a Labor seat again.
Is Paul Toole still embarrassed about being associated with the National Party?
“PAUL Toole says he is a “proud National” as he campaigns for the March 23 state election, but his new promotional material tells a different story.”
https://www.westernadvocate.com.au/story/5916297/spot-the-nats-party-listed-in-small-print-on-toole-campaign-material/#slide=5
[‘Rare reaction risk: Scandinavians halt Moderna shots for young people.
Copenhagen: Scandinavian authorities on Wednesday (Thursday AEDT) suspended or discouraged the use of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine in young people because of an increased risk of heart inflammation, a very rare side effect associated with the shot.
Sweden suspended the use of Moderna for those recipients under 30, Denmark said those under 18 won’t be offered the Swiss-made vaccine, and Norway urged those under 30 to get the Pfizer vaccine instead.
The countries have adequate supplies of both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines and will be able to continue their vaccination campaigns.
In neighbouring Finland, authorities are expected to announce their decision on Thursday (Friday AEDT), according to Dr. Hanna Nohynek, chief physician at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, told local broadcaster YLE.
All three countries based their decision on an unpublished study with Sweden’s Public Health Agency saying that it signals “an increased risk of side effects such as inflammation of the heart muscle or the pericardium” — the double-walled sac containing the heart and the roots of the main vessels. It added: “The risk of being affected is very small.”]
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/rare-reaction-risk-scandinavians-halt-moderna-shots-for-young-people-20211007-p58xz4.html
Dominic Perrottet is asked if chief health officer Kerry Chant endorses the changes to the roadmap announced today:
We had a very productive and constructive crisis cabinet meeting last evening. That’s the last crisis cabinet meeting we’ll have as we transition to a new subcommittee, a Covid economic recovery and subcommittee of cabinet.
These changes today are measured, sensible, and ensured we open up in a very safe way. I met yesterday for some time with Dr Chant and with minister Hazzard. We ran through a whole range of issues. We then took some suggested changes to the roadmap to the cabinet meeting last evening. It was a long meeting, but one in which I think was constructive.
Short answer … NO…
Speculative answer… pick a number of bodies you are happy with & go for it
UK Cartoons:
poroti, #fakenews in that YouTube video, no whiteboard!
Vic – not sure there’s as much low hanging fruit as people seem to think. No way Frydenberg loses. It just won’t happen. Hope Labor doesn’t waste energy running hard there. Don’t think Higgins will go either. Katie Allen has done a fair bit to try to distance herself from a lot of the govt rubbish. Reckon she will hang on. I think Chisholm will go Labor. I ardently hope Sukkar and Hunt lose, but the latter certainly won’t. Net gain – one
___________________________
Chisholm is obviously the best chance for a seat gain in VIC.
You woulnd’t expect Sukkar in Deakin to lose but:
Casey and La Trobe are ones to keep an eye on if there is a nice swing.
Possibly negated if Corangamite and Dunkley flip back to the Libs.
Hello Burgey-good post! I worry about my own electorate of Greenway in N-W Sydney (ALP, 2.8%). The worry is demographic change. The southern half of the electorate is traditional working-class territory, and solidly ALP, but there has been massive urban growth in the northern half of the electorate since the last election, in places like Schofields and The Ponds. These areas are either 50/50 or pro-Liberal. The Indian community will be very strongly represented in new enrolments in this area. The local member is Michelle Rowland, since 2010. I think she’s very capable, with a career in telecommunications law and health system administration, and she’s Labor’s spokesperson on telecommunications. A social conservative and devout Christian, she voted against same-sex marriage, probably a good fit with her electorate. But I think Greenway is one the Liberals will have high hopes of winning. There were big swings against Labor in the southern working-class suburbs in 2019, they’ll need to be reversed if Labor is to hold on here. Maybe being in a lockdown LGA will help with that.
Businesses in Little India in Western Sydney struggling to get to finish line after lockdown
https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100508972?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16335496645723&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2021-10-07%2Flittle-india-western-sydney-struggling-after-covid-19-lockdown%2F100508972
Burgey @ #58 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 9:49 am
‘I dunno what the internals are telling the govt, but they must be reasonably confident ‘
They know they’re going to win.
It’s just a matter of settling on the narrative before throwing the switch to Miracle 2.0
None of the pandemic stuff will count for much, bushfires, scandals….none of it. All in the past.
It’s all about the campaign.
Albo is a sitting duck.
Australian voters really are dumb enough to let Morrison go ’round again.
I’ve already switched off.
Burgey
Fair assessment. Thanks
Imagine mundo visiting you in hospital:
“You’re dead mate…. dead”
“It’s just a Hernia operation”
“doesn’t matter….dead”
Re Poroti @9:49 “The must some ‘syndrome’ to describe his compulsion to tell blatant lies.”
Pathological lying, also known as mythomania and pseudologia fantastica, is the chronic behavior of compulsive or habitual lying.
https://www.healthline.com/health/pathological-liar
Sukkar is a few car parks short of a train station…
Perrottet is not a natural before the cameras:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-07/nsw-introduces-major-changes-to-covid-19-roadmap/100519894
“…if Constance runs. He’s a proper local…”
Read about Andrew Contance’s first election campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberal-fights-liberal-in-a-dirty-campaign-20030313-gdgf3a.html
“A key issue is whether Mr Constance, who grew up in the neighbouring electorate of Monaro, is a “Sydney blow-in” who was imposed on the local party, or really a local boy.”
“Even Blind Freddie can see you’re dead”
Doctor: “While it’s a safe procedure, I still need you to understand there’s a very small risk…”
“Finally you’re getting it. You’re dead.”
Burgey
After last time not going to trust the polls. I don’t know, I worry.
Who knows what stunt the Greens will come up with this time to help the Liberals out?
Palmer is spending like a drunken sailor, he might find something that resonates
Gina Rinehart has flagged that she doesn’t like science and is willing to spend big keeping the science deniers in power, that is a worry.
Morrison has paid his dues to Murdoch and gone to NY to kiss his ring.
The age has put campaigning for the Liberals ahead of reality.
The ABC is a mixed bag as it should be.
On the plus side Albanese has been smart enough to not scare the horses and not make the campaign about specific Labor policies,no matter how disappointed the Greens may be.
Over on yammer where teachers communicate there is huge outrage at the changing directives coming from the department. The November 8 vaccine deadline has been trashed and bosses are saying to change existing bookings to fit new timetable. Many schools can’t even open windows because they have been painted shut, no aircon in many schools and some can’t be air conditioned because of heritage orders. Pair of tits wouldn’t know what a public School looked like, No teaches in five more years? Try one year!
Mundo and Sighing Coot (formerly known as “briefly, formerly known as “N”, formerly known as “O”) don’t rate Labor’s chances very high. I’m going to have a half-full cup of coffee.
See, what was all the fuss about pissing of the frogs (says Josh) they’re baaaaack!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-07/french-ambassador-return-canberra-submarine-aukus-row/100519858
Paramatta moderate,
Fyi, Michelle Rowland is an Indian-Australian. 🙂
FredNK
A party that is campaigning on tax the rich to provide economic security and the LNP are environmental vandals is not campaigning for the LNP.
Just as Gillard and Emerson using economic orthodoxy of trade to slowly transition away from fossil fuels with the least cost was not being radical trolls.
Do stop using the right wing attack lines of the LNP unless you want the Liberals to win.
Mavis @ #78 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 10:31 am
Very bitter coffee. 🙄
‘I dunno what the internals are telling the govt, but they must be reasonably confident ‘
They know they’re going to win.
It’s just a matter of settling on the narrative before throwing the switch to Miracle 2.0
None of the pandemic stuff will count for much, bushfires, scandals….none of it. All in the past.
It’s all about the campaign.
Albo is a sitting duck.
Australian voters really are dumb enough to let Morrison go ’round again.
I’ve already switched off.
Does that mean you won’t be coming to the blog anymore as well, mundo?
*fingerscrossedemoji*
🙂
I think we reached peak Albo about a month ago.
The only question is can Albo hang onto the lead in WA / 1-2 points he’s in front atm.
WA was going to produce a wave last time too – until it didn’t.
Big winge about Twitter from Beetrooter (lol)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10066635/Barnaby-Joyce-denies-daughter-Bridgette-affair-John-Barilaro.html
Thanks Cat. That will help! I’d read she has Pacific Island family heritage, but that could certainly be consistent with being an Indian-Australian.
Burgey
Labor is going for the pattern. ICAC. Car park rorts. Mining companies etc.
Going wholistic avoids the bullshit dominating.
Quolls post had something in it that was positive for Labor but ignored.
Gillard signed up to transparency and accountability. In a great many respects Labor did let the sunshine in. It just did not last after the LNP got in.
Burgey
Great post, thanks.
C@tmomma @ #81 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 7:37 am
I really hate this Americanism. It suggests division within our society that legally does not exist.
She is an Australian with an Indian heritage.
@Paul_Karp tweets
Now that a new premier says a different reopening plan is ALSO based on health advice (from the same health advisors) – can we agree the phrase is bordering on meaningless?
Burgey….
WA – a lot of seats there would ordinarily not be in the firing line, but by all reports the Libs are so massively on the nose that they’ll be scrambling incredibly hard to keep Hasluck, Stirling and Pearce. I don’t think they will, frankly. Can see all three of those plus Swan going at this stage. Early call – net gain of four.
Stirling has been abolished and replaced by a new seat in Victoria. The Liberals have lost a seat in WA and Labor has gained one in Victoria, on paper. So Labor start with a notional 69 seats, requiring at least 7 more seats to win.
The Liberals commence in a notional minority, and must win a seat or 2 at least to form a majority government.
In WA if the election is fought over whether or not the State should relax its covid regime against the wishes of the State, the Liberals would lose most of their seats. They are not trusted in the slightest on covid. Not an inch will be afforded to them. I know lots of diehard conservatives that would usually vote Liberal in a federal election. They will not vote against MacGowan and State regulation of the pandemic.
Morrison is also intimately affiliated in the minds of voters with Palmer, who is widely and uniquely despised here. In a choice between MacGowan/Albo and Morrison/Palmer, MacGowan will be chosen 4 times in 5.
Really, I hope that Morrison goes early and tries to take on MacGowan. Morrison will be destroyed.
If Russell Broadbent were to retire in a vaccine oppositional hissy fit, I wonder if Monash could become competitive. It’s on a ~7% margin but the 2PP margin barely moved last time, so there is potential room for movement. If Broadbent’s personal vote plus incumbency were out of the mix it could make a difference. He’s over 70 so ripe for retirement – but would be a mere stripling if he were in the US of course. In its former guise as McMillan, and on somewhat different boundaries, the ALP held the seat on several occasions.
guytaur says:
Thursday, October 7, 2021 at 10:38 am
FredNK
A party that is campaigning on tax the rich to provide economic security and the LNP are environmental vandals is not campaigning for the LNP.
The same trolls are also threatening to blackmail Labor. They are campaigning for the LNP. Very deliberately.
Is it time to rewatch Footloose?
@michaelkoziel tweets
One of the changes to the NSW roadmap is that nightclubs can open at 80 per cent vaccination but with NO standing and NO dancing
Barney in Tanjung Bunga at 10:50 am
Hear ! Hear ! She is an Australian. Born and bred Blacktown gal. It’s all a bit ‘Adolph Schicklgruber’ that racial ‘pedigree’ is becoming so important.
guytaur @ #95 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 7:58 am
Why? Does it have message about spreading disease?
Swings are guides – a swing of X will almost always mean Y number of seats change hands, but you can’t just apply X to the pendulum and pick which ones.
Some of the marginals will swing one way, some the other, and some seats no one has really been looking at will be unexpected wins/losses.
It makes more sense to say something like “On current polling, Labor/Liberal would pick up Y seats in Victoria” then to specify which seats.
NSW recorded 587 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.
Sadly, NSW Health is reporting the deaths of eight people who had COVID-19 – five men and three
women.
One person was in their 20s, one person in their 50s, two people were in their 60s, two people were
in their 70s, and two people were in their 80s.
@timsout tweets
This episode has prompted questions about cultural diversity and representation in a way not many political insiders expected. It’s a sign of a generational shift and of how many are no longer content with people thinking that multiculturalism is just about food and festivals
@nytimes tweets
Tu Le, an Australian lawyer and the daughter of Vietnamese refugees, was set to run for Parliament in a diverse district of Sydney. Then the opposition Labor Party passed her over for a white insider, pushing a debate over diversity into the open.
https://nyti.ms/3Dics58