Writing in InQueensland, press gallery veteran Dennis Atkins lays out the case for a November 27 election, observing that the imminent passage of technical electoral law legislation will “put the final duck in place for Morrison to call an election from the next weekend, with an announcement on either Saturday, October 23 or the following day”. With New South Wales’ super Saturday of state by-elections sure to be set for December 4, this would be the only feasible date for an election this year, at a time when “the balance of risk tilts further and further towards a poll in 2021” – at least in Atkins’ assessment.
Conversely, James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reckons the by-elections have “dramatically shrank (sic) the chances of an early federal election”. Unspecified “insiders” point to the risks of “election fatigue”, together with the hope that the government’s stocks might be boosted by the opening of national borders early next year and summer weather keeping case numbers within acceptable limits.
Other news:
• As noted in the post below, Andrew Constance will resign from his state seat of Bega to contest preselection for the corresponding federal seat of Gilmore, which Fiona Phillips gained for Labor in 2019 by a 2.6% margin after a 3.3% swing against the trend. Constance is particularly helpful for the Liberals in this seat due to the sympathetic media attention he received after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the 2019/20 bushfires, which devolved into a public relations disaster for Scott Morrison. However, he will first have to face a local preselection ballot, which the state party is loath to deny its members after imposing Warren Mundine on them in 2019, only for him to lose the seat. He has a rival contender lined up in Paul Ell, an associate with law firm RMB Lawyers. The Guardian reports Ell has “strong support of moderates in the branch”, such that “some senior party sources say an intervention will be needed to ensure Constance is preselected”.
• There has been much speculation that Gladys Berejiklian could line up as the Liberal candidate for Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall in 2019. However, David Crowe of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a consensus that this will not be feasible until the Independent Commission Against Corruption brings down the findings of investigation into her, presumably under the assumption that such findings would be favourable, which it is not likely to do for several months. The Daily Telegraph reports the preselection front-runner is Jane Buncle, a Manly barrister and factional moderate who is “understood to believe climate change is real”, although a number of others are named as potentially competitive starters.
• The West Australian reports Liberal MP Melissa Price had no trouble seeing off a preselection challenge for her seat of Durack from Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard, winning the party ballot by 47 votes to three.
• Karen Grogan, national political coordinator with the United Workers Union and Left faction convener, has been officially confirmed to fill the South Australian Labor Senate vacancy caused by the death of Alex Gallacher on August 29.
• The Age/Herald have published Newspoll-style quarterly breakdowns of federal voting intention by state from their regular monthly Resolve Strategic polling. This might have been interesting if they had included results from the smaller states, but they are in fact only provided for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, breakdowns for which are already provided in the regular monthly release.
Already commented on I know, but what stopped my gentle scroll through the news this morning was the messaging around Chant’s absence at the NSW presser, the description of a long constructive (for whom) meeting, and “health” advice (from whom).
“Let ‘er rip”, is what I thought.
I suspect the NSW and Qld premiers are going to have a difficult relationship.
Barney
Its a joke. Sorry I forgot to add the smiley face.
McGowan and the local papers have been on the war path about Perrotett and GST for days now. They must suspect something is in the works. With the PM of Sydney in charge they’d need to be wary. Move over Clive, there’s another demon taking your place in the Sandgroper cave.
.
.
C@tmomma:
Thursday, October 7, 2021 at 10:38 am
Mavis @ #78 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 10:31 am
Mundo and Sighing Coot (formerly known as “briefly, formerly known as “N”, formerly known as “O”) don’t rate Labor’s chances very high. I’m going to have a half-full cup of coffee.
[‘Very bitter coffee.’]
Possibly but at least the cup will be half-full. It just amazes me that after a number of quite good polls, these are not enough for some. The way I see it is that Morrison narrowly scraped home in 2019 (77 seats). Other than a series of stuff ups, numerous examples of what is tantamount to corruption, what has he achieved – SFA? If Labor can’t win under these circumstances,
it may as well throw the towel in but it won’t need to as I think
a majority have had their full of this rotten, corrupt government.
poroti @ #96 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 8:01 am
For me the “born and bred” part is irrelevant too.
Once you acquire citizenship, you also acquire the same rights and responsibilities as any other citizen.
I couldn’t care less if your ancestors came out on the First Fleet.
You are no more and no less of a citizen than anyone else.
@JB_AU tweets
We’re about to discover that a whole lot of workplaces and public places have put zero thought into addressing ventilation and mitigation over the last 3 months aren’t we?
@AnnastaciaMP tweets
Another day of no community transmission Thanks, Queensland
Morrison is also intimately affiliated in the minds of voters with Palmer, who is widely and uniquely despised here.
Intimately, really you use that word. What rubbish.
Burgey great post then yours a typical PB’s loon post.
Shellbellsays:
Thursday, October 7, 2021 at 9:47 am
Victoria does not include in its table cumulative deaths and does not otherwise report it.
________________
No surprise there.
guytaur
“One of the changes to the NSW roadmap is that nightclubs can open at 80 per cent vaccination but with NO standing and NO dancing”
Standing and dancing were just time-wasting rituals anyway. Now people can focus on the real purpose of nightclubs: hooking up and having sex.
guytaur @ #100 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 8:05 am
I like the way they brush over the fact that this “white insider” is a migrant.
I found this amusing:
I note #LetItRipDom is trending
It’s reported in The West Australian this morning that Vince Connelly, the member for the soon to be abolished seat of Stirling, is appealing against the decision of a preselection committee to re-endorse Ian Goodenough in the seat of Moore.
Mr Rolex is said to have won the endorsement 39-36 (surprising to me seeing he is said to have tight control of the branches, and churches, in Moore) and Connelly is claiming some of the pre-selectors were ineligible.
The appeal was being heard last night.
It is said WA Liberals want Connelly to run against Anne Aly in Cowan. He’s obviously not so keen.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga
True re ‘B&B’ . It was to emphasize how local she was.
Barney
True but White Migrant so the issue is real.
Michelle Rowland being referred to as an “Indian-Australian” (as they do in the USA) is an abomination!
I don’t see Morrison being referred to as a Cornish Australian.
Back in `my day we used proper English i.e. a specific ruleset that was beaten into my by a schoolteacher in a rural NSW school back in 1954! Her name was Mrs. Jarvis… she would slap you hard with her cane if you said anything that wasn’t in the proper mother tongue. Every day, we’d have to sing God Save the Queen and she would beat the crap out of you if you didn’t do it properly.
Then the Yanks came and started corrupting the youth with ideas. Like this ethnic nonsense. Back when I was young, there were no ethnic Australians, just Australians… or overseas Britons as we were still known then. Of course, everyone we knew was of pure British ancestry anyway… except for that one Irish who ran the pub. Eventually a dark man of the orient moved into town. Nearly shit my pants that day. Speaking of which, I need to be attended to by the nurse. Where is she? I used to be able to hit nursing home staff with my cane if they didn’t attend my needs fast enough but I’ve been told I will be evicted if I do that again. Bloody wokeness!
Guytaur
Sounds like your regular RSL but with better music lol
poroti @ #113 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 8:16 am
Yep, I understood what you were saying, but there have been people here express views that they were somehow “more” Australian because of their ancestry.
guytaur @ #114 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 8:23 am
What? Migrants shouldn’t be in Parliament?
lizzie @ #55 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 9:43 am
Thanks Lizzie – Just back from walking my little hearing dog and getting him weighed.
Zoomster Saw a massive and magnificent long haired shepherd being taken into the Vet’s after a long discussion with the owners. Did not look old or injured so hopefully something simple.
Hun has closed /removed the comments on the relevent articles – I wonder why??
Barney
Read the point I was highlighting without the reference content
@timsout tweets
This episode has prompted questions about cultural diversity and representation in a way not many political insiders expected. It’s a sign of a generational shift and of how many are no longer content with people thinking that multiculturalism is just about food and festivals
Looks like Biden is tanking badly now too!
40% approval rating in the latest Quinnipac Poll. Only 48% of Americans approve of his handling of COVID 19.
What a dilemma if he cannot recover – or chooses to walk away after the mid terms at the age of 80? Do the Democrats turn their back on a black female VEEP ? (who will likely lose) or do they have a competitive primary?
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Thursday, October 7, 2021 at 11:08 am
poroti @ #96 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 8:01 am
Barney in Tanjung Bunga at 10:50 am
Hear ! Hear ! She is an Australian. Born and bred Blacktown gal. It’s all a bit ‘Adolph Schicklgruber’ that racial ‘pedigree’ is becoming so important.
For me the “born and bred” part is irrelevant too.
Once you acquire citizenship, you also acquire the same rights and responsibilities as any other citizen.
….’
———————————–
Not strictly true in Australia. Citizens born in Australia have different rights with respect to Australian war crimes legislation.
Predictit org – already reflecting the Democrats problems – They say 40c on Biden being nominee, 30c on Kamala being nominee and 30c on other.
Maybe it will be a geriatric rematch – Trump v Clinton?
‘Wat Tyler says:
Thursday, October 7, 2021 at 11:24 am
Back in `my day we used proper English i.e. a specific ruleset that was beaten into my by a schoolteacher in a rural NSW school back in 1954! Her name was Mrs. Jarvis… she would slap you hard with her cane if you said anything that wasn’t in the proper mother tongue. Every day, we’d have to sing God Save the Queen and she would beat the crap out of you if you didn’t do it properly.
Then the Yanks came and started corrupting the youth with ideas. Like this ethnic nonsense. Back when I was young, there were no ethnic Australians, just Australians…’
————————————————–
Complete bullshit.
I was there and, like most migrant kids, copped it from the xenophobic, racist, monoglot ‘…just Australians…’. Oh, and in those ‘…just Australians…’ days, there were liberal dollops of homophobia, misogyny and sectarian hatred to go with the racism.
guytaur @ #121 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 8:32 am
Labor are still trying to sort out female representation in Parliament, so the balance is less susceptible to swings in election results.
Where is there a suggestion that Labor is opposed to having ethnic candidates?
Boerwar says:
Thursday, October 7, 2021 at 11:42 am
Complete bullshit.
I was there and, like most migrant kids, copped it from the xenophobic, racist, monoglot ‘…just Australians…’. Oh, and in those ‘…just Australians…’ days, there were liberal dollops of homophobia, misogyny and sectarian hatred to go with the racism.
_________________
Sounding like a very militant Green. 🙂
I’m pretty sure Wat’s post was satire …
Listening to the ABC radio this morning a cafe owner in Ballarat rang in.
He was very concerned that he has had to call for the Police several times in the last few days due to covidiots abusing his staff. He sounded very sensible, but this is going to be a big issue as we open up.
Are non-vaccinated people going to accept they can’t enter various places?
What about those people that don’t carry a smart phone or can’t use it well? May well be vaccinated but an A4 printout of the certificate is awkward to carry around.
This is very difficult to throw back onto poor small business who may need to employ a security guard to undertake this task.
Interesting that West Australian front page. Gina got the irrits as her speech to her old school was allegedly “censored”: to remove her anti-climate change comments.
I thought the Tories were against political messaging in schools and the politicization of students. Or does that only apply to messages they don’t agree with?
Admittedly this person said same thing before last federal election regarding Shorten. We know how that turned out.
—–
#auspol from Wickr someone has the updated internal voting ALP federal for Victoria and it’s not good for ALP. They are not making headwind into the seats they need again as last time . People don’t trust the ALP leadership Victorians don’t want ALBO
DisplayName says:
Thursday, October 7, 2021 at 11:48 am
I’m pretty sure Wat’s post was satire …
__________________________
Was it satire? Perhaps he’s being held in the same secure facility as mexicanbeemer by the fascists and having posts done in his name?
frednk @ #76 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 10:25 am
Scotty can make up Labor policies that aren’t even Labor policies and scare the shite out of everyone.
Cancelling the great aussie week end anyone?
Confiscate your keys?
Knowing it’ll just get reported as though it’s true.
As Mundo once said, it’s all about the campaign, stoopid.
Lars Von Trier at 11:51 am
You will be able to check next time you do your next hourly round of the facility .
Burgey
That’s exactly it.
Mavis @ #104 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 11:08 am
And that’s what I just don’t get about Labor Hanrahans like mundo and O briefly sighing old coot. The federal Labor Opposition have been doing the best of any Opposition in the country during the COVID-19 pandemic and it’s just never good enough for them. Labor will still lose anyway, according to their ‘expert’ political instincts. I just want to throw a shoe at the computer screen sometimes when I see it! It’s people like them, permanent Debbie Downers, who make a difference to Labor’s vote, if only incrementally, but sometimes crucially in the areas where they live. They just don’t seem to get that though.
C@tmomma says:
It’s people like them, permanent Debbie Downers, who make a difference to Labor’s vote, if only incrementally, but sometimes crucially in the areas where they live. They just don’t seem to get that though.
____________
I don’t believe that is true. But if it was, it would be equally true that overly partisan, hyper sensitive, indeed hysterical Labor supporters would also have a negative impact on the Labor vote.
@briantaylorcohen tweets
BREAKING: Federal judge issues a preliminary injunction BLOCKING the enforcement of Texas’ 6-week abortion ban, SB8.
Victoria @ #131 Thursday, October 7th, 2021 – 11:50 am
Great. You’ll throw away all hope for Labor because of some random on Wickr, that just happens to have ‘got it right last time’!?!
What is it around here, Hanrahan Day!?!
So, they’d rather a flailing failing lying fake instead to lead them? Simply because someone who read something on facebook said something about how Victorians ‘don’t trust the ALP leadership and Victorians don’t want Albo’??? They’d rather have the Prime Minister for NSW instead!?!
They’re nuts, in my honest opinion.
Heh heh what? No such facility exists. You’re making things up. Stop being silly. I am the genuine Wot Taylor… certainly not an operative pretending to be him. The guy you always knew… Umm… I really like the Zelda game I think.
Enough of this silliness… don’t you have polls to discuss or something, instead of looking at little old me…
I think some pessimism, or at least lowered expectations is actually necessary because being too optimistic isn’t healthy either. I don’t care where you sit on the optimism-pessimism or realism-idealism spectrum, just as long as you’re not snarky or condescending about it and let others think how they want.
This article has got the don’t be overconfident in the polls warnings.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-in-nsw-and-victoria-cut-support-for-scott-morrison-s-coalition-20211006-p58xtj.html
Mundo is correct about Morrison attacking Shorten on Electric Utes etc
Blaming the Greens misses the point.
LOL Lars
January 6 was an attempted coup.
C@t
I personally dont know a single solitary person who has anything good to say about Morrison.
So desperately want to see the back of this pathetic govt.
poroti says:
Thursday, October 7, 2021 at 11:54 am
Lars Von Trier at 11:51 am
You will be able to check next time you do your next hourly round of the facility .
_________________________________________________
And you know I’d be very liberal in administering the electric shock to ensure ordnung.
I’m sorry, doom-posting about “internalz”
All that chatter last time… was bullshit. If we had any real internals we would have known Labor was never better than a 50/50 chance.
I welcome mundo’s announcement he’s cutting off from discussion… fingers crossed!
But seriously, for Eeyore act some around here love to wallow in… what’s your idea? Feral doesn’t work any more. Angry doesn’t work. This is not Holt v Calwell people…
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases drop 17 days in a row
– New cases: 123,346 ………………….. – New deaths: 2,278
– In hospital: 68,769 (-379)
– In ICU: 18,904 (-210)
727,273 total deaths now
Deep down I think some of you actually want Albo to lose? From day 1 of his leadership some of his greatest defenders here (now) where actually very down on Albo.
As I recall only lurker and I have been the only ones who have been positive on Albo from the get-go.
mundo says:
Thursday, October 7, 2021 at 11:53 am
….
As Mundo once said, it’s all about the campaign, stoopid.
Yes and there is limited bandwidth to get the message across. This time around Clive is still going to take some with his millions, that is pretty obvious. How much are the Greens going to take with whatever stunt they come up with this time, is still very much an unknown. And this time Liberal will go full bullshit for sure , with Murdoch willing to further trash his brand to get the Liberals across the line.
The cup isn’t full, but it isn’t empty either.
Lars Von Trier
I’m sure you will. Your mentor trained you well.