The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
Richard Cranium won the Grand National in Victoria.
A Senate committee has recommended a Bill to permit offshore wind farms in Australia, introduced by Minister Angus Taylor some six months late. Now it will not be debated till the next parliament, with details of the Bill still missing.
Why the delay? We had oil and gas drilling rigs in Bass Straight 50 years ago. I doubt the wind turbines have worse impact. This was a cynical stall. This Bill will permit projects that could generate thousands of jobs in NT and the LaTrobe Valley, quite apart from climate benefits.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/senate-committee-endorses-offshore-wind-bill-in-hope-it-can-help-push-out-coal/
Will the Glasgow Summit be the final nail in the Coalitions grave?
sprocket,
Glasgow doesn’t start till October 31. Plenty of time for the Nats to squeeze the Liberal Lemons.
Australians like a strong leader as PM – Menzies, Whitlam, Howard, Hawke – even Rudd, Gillard and Abbott ticked this box.
Turnbull showed failures in ticker – letting the Nat-anderthals rule the roost on Energy Guarantee.
Now Morrison is exhibiting weakness in the face of the Nats rump. So weak that he is being led by the nose like some prime heifer on the the way to the butcher.
🙂 It’s not Gladys.
The National tail has always wagged to Liberal dog. The Country / National party nearly always wins because the Liberals nearly always cave. The Liberals should call their bluff. After all, what are they going to do – join a coalition with Labor?
Another reason why the feckless Frydenberg is not cutting it as the Treasurer. NFI. He should forget about his petty political pandemic attacks on Victorians and stick to his day job.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/17/horrific-for-the-community-confessions-of-a-real-estate-agent-in-priced-out-byron-bay
One rarely used quarantine facility costs about 5% or less of an even more rarely used nuclear submarine.
Poor Cameron @ #1903 Sunday, October 17th, 2021 – 7:49 pm
No
Steve
The Nats’ ministers covet the big office and extra salaries and perks that go with the job. I doubt any of them would willingly go to the barricades if they were going to lose the perks.
sprocket_ @ #1905 Sunday, October 17th, 2021 – 7:56 pm
He’d be a steer not a heifer.
There’s a pacer going around at the trots at the moment called Arden Messi which strikes me as a bit suss.
One of the Albury high schools is closed tomorrow due to a COVID case. Our school has around 10% of the staff self isolating whilst awaiting test results (school communities are very interconnected..)
As youngster in the work force, so over 50 years ago, I recall the paralysis which endured when the consideration was the value of the AUD (then fixed) and the speculation of the outcome of the Coalition “negotiations”, which went on for days if not weeks
The Country Party always won
And that was before McMahon!!!!
“Black Jack” did not have his reputation for nothing.
The Liberals are about retaining the trappings of office – exclusively
They do not govern
Hence the enduring power of the Country Party – and nothing has changed
Dom about to be father of 7… the Pope will be happy
Irresponsible.
The only show in town, other than how long will Joyce leave Morrsion out to dry?:
[‘Two weeks since her sudden resignation as premier and a year after she first revealed her years-long secret relationship with a disgraced former MP, a corruption inquiry is this week set to examine whether Gladys Berejiklian breached the trust of the NSW public.
Former premier Mike Baird and senior minister Stuart Ayres are scheduled to front Independent Commission Against Corruption hearings this week, along with a cavalcade of former NSW bureaucrats and government advisers.
An Independent Commission Against Corruption Inquiry into former NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian will begin on Monday.
An Independent Commission Against Corruption Inquiry into former NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian will begin on Monday.
Central to the corruption watchdog’s investigation is $35 million worth of NSW government grants issued to the electorate of Wagga Wagga, where Ms Berejiklian’s undisclosed boyfriend Daryl Maguire was the local Liberal MP.
The ICAC will examine whether she breached the public trust or encouraged corrupt conduct during her five-year relationship with Mr Maguire, zeroing in on $5 million issued to the Australian Clay Target Association in 2016-17 and a $30 million hand-out to the Riverina Conservatorium of Music in Wagga Wagga in 2018.
A list of bureaucrats from the Office of Sport and Regional NSW on the ICAC witness list indicates the first week of hearings could deal with the allocation of funding to the two organisations, as well as the government processes behind grant programs.
First to front the ICAC on Monday is likely to be NSW Office of Sport director Michael Toohey, who was a director of project delivery for the Department of Premier and Cabinet between 2009 and 2018.
NSW Rugby Union chief executive Paul Doorn, who served as an executive director within the Office of Sport between 2015 and 2017, is listed to appear on Tuesday, while Nigel Blunden, a former strategy director to Mr Baird is slated to appear on Wednesday.
Mr Blunden, a former television reporter and federal government staffer, worked in the NSW premier’s office between 2014 and 2017 and is head of government affairs at HammondCare, where Mr Baird is chief executive. He was this year hired to work on the federal government’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout.’]
(To be streamed live from the ICAC site)
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/berejiklian-icac-hearings-set-to-begin-weeks-after-shock-resignation-20211017-p590pe.html
Jaeger @ #525 Sunday, October 17th, 2021 – 8:00 pm
Jaeger, I was alluding to the voice, of course. It says ‘please know this’ all the time. Although the face looked a bit familiar too. Unfortunate bird.
Some more on the Nats’ humiliation of Morrison..
‘Nationals members met on Sunday to hear from Energy Minister Angus Taylor on the plan – which will go to a Liberals partyroom meeting on Monday and all government members on Tuesday – and then discuss it.
Mr Taylor said after the briefing it had been a “constructive and collegiate discussion about the future of our regions, traditional industries and the jobs and communities that rely on them”.
“There was a strong joint commitment to policies that strengthen our regions, not weaken them,” Mr Taylor said.
“It was also clear that there was absolutely no appetite for policies that impact jobs or add to the cost of living through an explicit carbon tax or a sneaky carbon tax.”
Nationals deputy leader David Littleproud said after the meeting there had been “divergent views” expressed.
“There were still some more questions that need to be answered,” he told Sky News.
“There will be no agreement until such time we get comfort … I don’t think it would be responsible (to agree immediately), I think it would be reckless.”
He said supporting a more ambitous emissions target would be one of the biggest decisions his party had ever made and he and colleagues would not be rushed into it.
But, in a bid to ease concerns in regional areas, he said the coal industry would continue in Australia well into the 2050s.
“The world isn’t going to transition out of coal-fired power stations in a hurry – we are going to keep digging coal out and we are going to keep exporting,” he said, adding that carbon capture and storage would be crucial.
Mr Littleproud said there was strong support within the Nationals for nuclear power to reduce emissions, but to achieve it would require “an environment for a mature conversation”.
https://www.bluemountainsgazette.com.au/story/7472434/nationals-seek-further-climate-plan-detail/?cs=9676
Shorter version: No agreement without more pork.
And more on the Nats crutching of Morrison and the ‘Modern Liberals’… back in your box, boys and girls
‘Nationals’ sources familiar with the talks but not authorised to speak publicly said the meeting ended without a decision and the federal MPs would keep discussing the targets in the days ahead, while demanding spending measures and policies to help regional Australia, such as more spending on the $15 billion inland rail project.
Nationals deputy leader and Agriculture Minister David Littleproud said the party will take its “time to get it right,” after he emerged from the talks.
Mr Littleproud also dismissed the idea of a higher 2030 target.
“That’s not on the table. We haven’t been shown any modelling to change any target like that,” he said. “The only question the Nationals party room has been asked is around net zero by 2050 and that’s the only one that we are focusing on.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/joyce-expects-colleagues-to-reject-deeper-cuts-to-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-2030-20211017-p590oj.html
“Simply there was not the time to turn a Policy into a plan then to deliver on that plan”
Counsel Assisting
Hotel quarantine was announced by Morrison on a Friday afternoon after he was rolled by the States and Territories on mandatory home quarantine
Morrison included that hotel quarantine would be in operation by midnight on the Saturday night (so 36 hours – from nothing)
Perhaps Morrison could show the same fit of pique to the Nationals?
7 grooms for 7 sisters – maybe one day
Local Government elections in WA yesterday. My sister ran and won. I scrutineered which was interesting and educational.
It would appear that Angus Taylor is a fellow traveller with the Nats, never even put a 2030 interim target to them
All I ask is that she doesn’t begin every answer with ‘Please know..’
Surely the complete refusal to budge on 2030 is great ammo for Labor. If we aim for 26% by 2030 (IIRC) that’s a 74% reduction in the following 20 years.
Especially with the BCA now supporting a 46-50% by 2030 target.
Any “plan” for zero emissions by 2050 without an intermediate target (2035 at latest) would be nothing but a figleaf to cover an intention to do nothing.
hazza4257 @ #1748 Sunday, October 17th, 2021 – 8:48 pm
I always thought 30% real (not from 2005 levels or whatever fudge the Coalition & Abbott came up with), by 2030 had a nice round number, memorable ring to it.
’30 by 2030′
If that seems inadequate to people, then a 40 by 30 goal could be put up. 70 by 40 and 100 by 2050 (Or Net Zero).
The big question with nuclear energy is whether or not our first new reactor would be ready in time to produce fuel for our first new submarine…
Whether yes or no, totally irrelevant to whether or not we can get to zero by 2050.
I found out something interesting tonight, Apparently Gladys Berejiklian employed a Socials Secretary who was a prominent Sydney ‘Influencer’. No wonder she tapped in to that demographic so well.
such as more spending on the $15 billion inland rail project.
They need to be honest. This is what they want:
More spending on the $15 billion inland Coal rail project.
Quite obviously Barnaby’s blackmailers want megapork and want to make zero concessions on emissions to get it.
Not Phil Coorey, Cat?
Fulvio Sammut @ #1755 Sunday, October 17th, 2021 – 9:00 pm
Nah. He’s just the stenographer. 😀
“Pardon me boy, is that the coal emitter’s choo choo?”
Perhaps Perrottet’s after “Honest Joe” Lyons’ (& Labor rate) record of 12.
Who was the last NSW Premier to have a child in office?
Being a country Lad, Dom would be described as a good traditional catholic.
@Henry;
“ Yeah I quite liked Jodi, she was a straight shooter who actually referred her own colleagues to ICAC back in the day. She actually seemed to have integrity. In a politician? Heavens to Betsy.
Unfortunately she was up against Gladys in her pomp and prime and a partisan, lazy MSM who cut her no slack (and gave her very little air time).”
Also worth mentioning in dispatches is the duplicitous Walt Secord and feckless Chris Minns who leaked and backgrounded like [insert expletives of choice] to deliberately enable and facilitate the MSM (Alex Smith) / Premier’s Office (former 7West hack Sean Berry) narrative.
The Smith-Berry-Secord agreed upon strategy from day one of Jodi’s leadership was to ensure that she got no coverage at all, unless it was negative coverage. The tactic was to say that she was invisible, even if she did 10 press releases, 5 interviews and held several press conferences every day. Which she usually did.
Will the Glasgow Summit be the final nail in the Coalitions grave?
(Pedantry alert)
The nail is actually in the coffin.
But then the coffin goes in the grave, so…
But whatever, as Briefly says, no. They’ll spin it with the help of Newscorp and declare any Labor policy an expensive, economy-wrecking disaster…
steve777 – you expect Albo to lose don’t you?
“ Dom about to be father of 7… the Pope will be happy”
Oh, FFS. Beyond parody:
https://youtu.be/fUspLVStPbk
Berejiklian has had over 5 years to rehearse her lines but at least one phone call could prove to be her undoing, the ICAC obviously unimpressed with the explanation she gave this time last year.
This means no reduction in emissions unless some miracle advance in technology comes along and saves us from ourselves.
Vaccine rollout:
NSW
80.3% fully vaccinated; 92% first dose
National
67.8% fully vaccinated; 84.6% first dose
Of the estimated population aged 16 and over
– SMH
This means no reduction in emissions unless some miracle advance in technology comes along and saves us from ourselves.
That won’t be taken up if it doesn’t use coal.
So we need something to suck all the carbon out of the coal before were burn it.
Shellbell:
Khawaja time!
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/khawaja-stakes-ashes-claim-with-a-century-of-substance-20211017-p590q2.html
Good news on Jhye Richardson as well. …
S777
It’s magic pudding decarbonisation.