The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
David Crowe says Barnaby Joyce has weakened Scott Morrison just two weeks before world leaders are due to meet in Glasgow to decide their pledges on climate change. Joyce has left the Prime Minister with little room to move on one of the key negotiations at the United Nations climate summit: the goal of making deeper cuts to emissions by 2030.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/joyce-weakens-morrison-before-world-leaders-decide-their-pledges-on-climate-change-20211017-p590p8.html
Barnaby Joyce has told The Australian after the meeting that Nationals MPs were “not at this stage” convinced that Scott Morrison’s plan for a net zero by 2050 emissions target could be achieved without negatively affecting the regions. The Deputy Prime Minister said the sticking point was a “lack of information” about the economic impact of the plan on the regions and jobs, after the party room of 21 MPs was briefed by Energy Minister Angus Taylor.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/climate-agreement-nationals-stall-on-road-to-net-zero/news-story/cc38378577e1086328f1ac6fac82f3ae
The Nationals have flatly rejected an increased emissions reduction target for 2030 but with tens of billions of dollars for regional Australia on the table, they are considering backing a commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, writes Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/nationals-to-get-billions-for-net-zero-20211017-p590n4
Sean Kelly writes that climate has shifted in Scott-land, but he wonders whether or not real action will follow.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/climate-s-shifted-in-scott-land-but-will-real-action-follow-20211015-p590hk.html
Nicks O’Malley and Toscano tell us that business leaders say Australia is being left behind the rest of the developed world due to the federal government’s failure to commit to serious climate change action and want a national net zero emissions target to urgently be set.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/business-frustration-over-government-s-climate-inaction-grows-20211017-p590ol.html
Meanwhile, European oil and gas giant Shell is seeking to expand its Australian power business and develop more renewables and zero-emissions hydrogen projects locally.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/shell-has-sights-on-australian-power-market-as-green-shift-accelerates-20211017-p590n1.html
If Australia sets a ‘net zero by 2050’ target at COP26, it will likely be heralded as a major shift, but it’s unlikely to do anything to align us with that trajectory, writes a concerned Jetan Joshi.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/how-do-we-tackle-australia-s-burning-problem-before-it-burns-us-20211011-p58z0s.html
Amy Remeikis tells us what she knows about yesterday’s big meeting of Coalition MPs.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/17/a-long-way-to-play-out-nationals-fail-to-reach-agreement-on-2050-emissions-reduction
Peter Martin tells us Australia’s top economists are backing a carbon price, saying the benefits of net-zero outweigh the cost.
https://theconversation.com/australias-top-economists-back-carbon-price-say-benefits-of-net-zero-outweigh-cost-169939
Regional communities built around traditional mining and manufacturing will die unless governments invest and support them through the clean energy transition, Labor’s Chris Bowen has warned. Labor’s climate and energy spokesman believes the same regional cities which have historically powered the nation can and will become the engine room of Australia’s renewable energy economy.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7471241/regional-australia-must-not-be-left-to-die-amid-clean-energy-transition-bowen/?cs=14264
Alan Kohler says we should be preparing for inflation and higher interest rates.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/10/18/inflation-covid-alan-kohler/
There are many things wrong with both housing policy and tax policy, and the interaction of them predictably creates distortions in our housing market. It makes it impossible for many young people to own their own home, writes Kevin Davis who says now good time to end negative gearing and taxpayer subsidised speculation in housing.
https://johnmenadue.com/a-good-time-to-end-negative-gearing-and-taxpayer-subsidised-speculation-in-housing/
The ICAC hearing into Berejiklian’s involvement in certain grant dealings begins this morning. Should make interesting viewing. Tom Rabe tells us what to expect.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/berejiklian-icac-hearings-set-to-begin-weeks-after-shock-resignation-20211017-p590pe.html
Sandy Killick argues that integrity in politics is not too much to ask.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/integrity-in-politics-not-too-much-to-ask-20211016-p590jx.html
Melburnians are days away from ending their sixth citywide lockdown when restrictions ease on Friday under greater freedoms than had been previously flagged, explain Sumeyya Ilanbey and Jewel Topsfield.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/freedoms-pushed-forward-as-melbourne-moves-out-of-lockdown-20211017-p590mg.html
Public health measures will be needed into 2022 to keep a lid on COVID-19 outbreaks and do away with mass lockdowns, with high vaccination coverage alone not enough to stop the hospital system becoming overloaded as case numbers rise, explain Lucy Carroll and Rachel Clun.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-measures-we-need-to-keep-in-place-as-we-open-up-20211017-p590nu.html
A prime example of Federal Government misspending, COVIDSafe never replaced the sleuthing efforts of human contact tracers and may have even inhibited them, writes Dr Binoy Kampmark.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/covidsafe-app-missing-the-mark-coalition-style,15633
Melissa Cunningham and Aisha Dow tell us how Victorian hospitals are making seismic changes to handle a tsunami of the unvaccinated.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorian-hospitals-make-seismic-changes-to-handle-tsunami-of-the-unvaccinated-20211016-p590ja.html
If the Australian international border is reopened while highly transmissible Covid-19 variants are circulating overseas or locally, large and disruptive outbreaks will still be possible after 80% of people aged 16 years are fully vaccinated, modelling published in the Medical Journal of Australia today says.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/18/australia-could-see-covid-surge-from-new-variants-even-after-80-vaccination-when-border-reopens
Daniel Andrews says Victoria and NSW are now “closely aligned” and will increasingly operate as one zone while other states pursue their own divergent COVID-free paths, writes Jennifer Hewett.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/daniel-andrews-takes-a-political-exit-route-20211017-p590ou
The popular view is that once we’ve got on top of COVID-19 through vaccines, occupancy of offices will return to normal. But new habits die hard, writes Dr Peter Fisher.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/returning-to-the-office-post-covid-its-not-set-in-concrete,15639
Bloody idiots! The Maritime Union of Australia has given stevedores in Queensland until today to back down on vaccine mandates and urged all members not to provide proof of vaccination.
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/queensland-wharfies-told-to-boycott-vaccination-proofs-20211017-p590ly
Shane Wright writes that the man who designed HECS for the university sector says revenue-contingent loans should be an option to re-build small and medium-sized businesses.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/father-of-hecs-says-time-for-small-businesses-to-get-same-help-20211017-p590mu.html
The Greens will fight for a million publicly owned, affordable homes to be built over twenty years if they hold the balance of power after the next federal election, reports James Massola. This will surely generate some discussion, given the caveats the PBO has put on its study.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-promise-huge-cash-splash-to-build-1-million-affordable-homes-20211015-p590c8.html
Zoe Samios reports that Australia’s national broadcaster has recruited a former Commonwealth ombudsman and an experienced news industry executive to review how it handles complaints, a step that could dramatically change how public concerns about coverage and breaches of editorial practices are dealt with in future.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/aunty-to-review-complaints-handling-system-for-first-time-in-12-years-20211017-p590ns.html
Decorah Snow and Adele Ferguson report that a secretive trustee company that has received tens of millions of dollars in native title payments is being asked to reveal where the money has gone.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/landmark-challenge-to-secrecy-over-native-title-payments-20211016-p590j2.html
Bevan Shields writes that a new free-trade agreement between Canberra and London will make it easier for people to live and work in both countries.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/dan-tehan-opens-door-to-british-workers-to-fill-pandemic-hole-20211017-p590li.html
China’s global diplomatic approach is shifting, and Australia would do well to pay attention to it, argues Tony Walker.
https://theconversation.com/chinas-global-diplomatic-approach-is-shifting-and-australia-would-do-well-to-pay-attention-to-it-169930
Nick Toscano reports on casino giant Star Entertainment facing the threat of a class action lawsuit over alleged failures to confront money-laundering and terrorism-financing risks.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-star-faces-class-action-threat-after-1b-share-price-collapse-20211017-p590nf.html
The courts have a new chance to block Texas’s abortion law. They must take it, urge these contributors to The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/17/texas-abortion-law-courts-us-constitution
Adam Kinzinger, one of two Republicans on the special committee investigating the deadly 6 January US Capitol attack, said on Sunday the pursuit of a criminal contempt referral against Steve Bannon was “the first shot over the bow” for allies of Donald Trump defying subpoenas to testify.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/17/capitol-attack-panel-steve-bannon
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Peter Broelman
Jim Pavlidis
Alan Moir
Warren Brown
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
Barnyard really does have delusions of grandeur.
He seems to think Straya’s future is in his hands.
Thanks BK. How good is today’s Rowe!
Barnaby Joyce and The Nationals are Australia’s physical manifestation of Ransomware when it comes to taking action to deal with the causes of Global Heating!
For an “insider” you sure are surprisingly dense, Barrie. We are watching a bit of theatre scripted by the Coalition.
Do be fair, after listening to 3 hours of Angus Taylor sprout his gobbledygook I’m not surprised that the Nationals said as a group – WTF?
If nothing else, the hayseeds have a well developed bullshit detector.
The Liberals couldn’t be happier that the Nats are playing hard to get. It lets them do as little as possible while claiming a herculean effort.
DisplayName @ #1381 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 7:46 am
Yes but an increasing number of people aren’t convinced by that shadowplay.
This is just childish ‘investigative journalism’. No need for real thought. It’s all they have.
DisplayName @ #2009 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 7:46 am
And while Morrison is preoccupied with the AGW debacle playing out in the coalition, it gives airtime for the Premier for Australia to continue to frame the terms of the agenda on Oz Covid recovery.
The Nationals are all strut and bluff, magic tricks, smoke screens and sly digs at the greenies. And even Baldricks plans sometimes worked. But this recent Natfart is all stunt and no plan. And as for cunning…. a natural location for a traditional nuclear powered plant is in the electorate of the Hunter and regional north QLD. Their voters may only have one eyed, but I am not sure they are keen on having three.
lizzie @ #1383 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 8:03 am
You wish they’d go as hard against the government, but they’re too afraid.
Bernard Keane
@BernardKeane
Wonder how the media would report a bloke who refused to do anything about his own house burning down because his pisshead couchsurfer mate insisted on being handed a fat wad of cash before giving permission.
If the Australian international border is reopened while highly transmissible Covid-19 variants are circulating overseas or locally, large and disruptive outbreaks will still be possible after 80% of people aged 16 years are fully vaccinated, modelling published in the Medical Journal of Australia on Monday says.
It comes after the New South Wales premier, Dominic Perrottet, announced on Friday that from 1 November, returning Australians and tourists would be able to travel to Sydney without needing to hotel quarantine. However, later on Friday the prime minister Scott Morrison said the international border would only open to vaccinated Australian citizens and their immediate families and not tourists, saying “we will not rush”.
The modelling, led by Dr Mark Hanly from the Centre for Big Data Research in Health at the University of NSW, applied various assumptions regarding transmissibility, vaccine rollout speed, and scale of border reopening to see the impact on virus cases and hospitalisations.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/18/australia-could-see-covid-surge-from-new-variants-even-after-80-vaccination-when-border-reopens
Look at who is proposing blue hydrogen, nuclear and ccs. Who is it proposing we can decarbonise without decarbonising? Who is it selling Australia’s inaction as action with dodgy accounting? Who is it that falsely claims Australia is “meeting and beating our targets” and “leading the world”?
It’s not the Nats. The Nats are merely riffing off the Liberal’s con.
Inhalable booster:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1236531.shtml
The 2030 target wedge is on.
The Liberals, *not* the Nationals, are the ones who have already ruled out all practical mechanisms for decarbonising.
On a lighter note, here’s a story about some responsible Petrol Heads who are converting their old gas guzzlers to EVs:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-10-18/converting-classic-cars-to-electric-vehicles/100533104
🙂
Morning all
Thanks BK!!
Happy ICAC day everyone. Time to get an update on the love live of everyone’s favorite premier!
They’ve been too busy fighting over leadership and pork.
Access: http://www.icac.nsw.gov.au (click through to the live stream page from the link at “News and media”, which will be available from Monday morning on the home page).
https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-can-beat-its-2030-emissions-target-but-the-morrison-government-barely-lifted-a-finger-169835?
Many of the lessons in this video are relevant in this country.
https://twitter.com/JamesEFoster/status/1449647111667060737?s=20
A nice line and length from Albanese on the government:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/17/a-long-way-to-play-out-nationals-fail-to-reach-agreement-on-2050-emissions-reduction
Pikachu, attempting to stop Morrison’s car this morning to highlight his inaction on Climate Change and kowtowing to the banjo players, is dealt with by the coppers..
ABC reporting 1,903 new cases in Victoria …..
Victoria has recorded 1,903 new local COVID-19 cases and seven deaths as the state moves closer to the end of its lockdown.
There are now 22,327 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 152 people have died during the current Delta outbreak.
The new cases were identified from 69,825 test results received yesterday.
There were 32,405 doses of vaccine administered at state-run sites yesterday, and more doses delivered at GP clinics and other venues.
Yesterday, Premier Daniel Andrews announced Victoria’s lockdown would end at 11:59pm on Thursday when the state reaches its goal of having 70 per cent of people aged 16+ fully vaccinated.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-18/victoria-records-new-covid-cases/100546704
1900 covid cases and 7 deaths in Victoria
Meanwhile I have a three more family and friends who now have covid. They are not connected to each other.
So far I know that two have mild symptoms.
Dont know the status of the other one.
Andrews fires back at Frydenberg over his incessant attacks.
NSW 266 cases, 5 deaths, 606 hospital (-13), 132 ICU (-5).
Vic, I heard an interesting piece of information where a family contracted Covid, there was nothing to particularly distinguish one from the other but one of them got mild flu-like symptoms, another got severe flu-like symptoms and the third one ended up in ICU on a ventilator. They were American and unvaccinated but still interesting to note the variance.
Interesting
The Flu tracker survey is now asking about booster jabs.
laughtong,
I saw that too. So I rang my doctor and they told me that they have received nothing about it from NSW Health yet. I don’t know if Vic Health is different.
”
lizziesays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 7:16 am
Barrie Cassidy
@barriecassidy
·
10h
Hang on. Why has Joyce weakened Morrison? The PM overwhelmingly has the numbers in the parliament to go flat out on climate change. Why would he even contemplate using taxpayers money to buy Barnaby?
”
I always wondered about this.
Even Ms. Tingle wrote in weekend article by saying tjat Parliament has been made redundant by depending on Nats.
C@t
That situation happened to people connected to one of my close relatives recently.
Three brothers in late 40s and 50s who worked together in their own business.
One very mild. One moderate. One ended in hospital in ICU. Now better but still suffering.
Goid Morning
Joyce is doing his best to see Greens and Independent politicians get elected as Morrison continues to run away from leadership.
Victoria is very concerning. What is going on that the numbers just won’t budge?
Vic: sorry to hear about your family members. I hope they are able to avoid hospitalisation and severe symptoms.
@JohnRHewson tweets
lack of integrity in the Nats wanting a “better deal for regions”to make Glasgow commitments ludicrous. Regions most at risk from climate + potentially the biggest winners from transition new businesses +jobs in renewables ,waste,fuels and regenerative agriculture. Pure greed!
Barnaby, as Nats Leader, is obviously taking delight in emphasising their various opinions, rather than trying to bring them together.
”
David Crowe says Barnaby Joyce has weakened Scott Morrison just two weeks before world leaders are due to meet in Glasgow to decide their pledges on climate change. Joyce has left the Prime Minister with little room to move on one of the key negotiations at the United Nations climate summit: the goal of making deeper cuts to emissions by 2030.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/joyce-weakens-morrison-before-world-leaders-decide-their-pledges-on-climate-change-20211017-p590p8.html
”
This is a crap argument. Joyce repeatedly days Nats are a different party and they are. Libs know that Mata will not have any numbers in Parliament without the help of Libs. It is Mata who will loose totally without the support of Libs. Libs should use that as a leverage to secure the deal in the first place.
Crowe is just giving cover to Morrison for no policy Net zero.
Fess
Out of my relatives. So far only my uncle has ended up in hospital.
It is predicted as we open up further, cases will peak to 3500.
The weather is still cold in Victoria.
People are still congregating inside a lot.
Despite the fact that people should not be visiting each other, that has been happening throughout the past month or more.
”
The Nationals have flatly rejected an increased emissions reduction target for 2030 but with tens of billions of dollars for regional Australia on the table, they are considering backing a commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, writes Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/nationals-to-get-billions-for-net-zero-20211017-p590n4
”
Coorey you are a total and complete disgrace to imply that Nats are party who can be reasoned with.
Other than Darren Chester all Nat MPs and Senators are not fit to represent people of Australia.
@tanya_plibersek tweets
By letting Barnaby Joyce write his climate policy, Scott Morrison is blowing the chance to make Australia a renewable energy superpower.