The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
UK Cartoons:
GOP26 and David Amess dominate the past 2 days worth.
I think this is the most relevant piece in today’s media.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/18/malcolm-turnbull-on-murdoch-lies-and-the-climate-crisis-the-same-forces-that-enabled-trump-are-at-work-in-australia
Fran Kelly trying to lay down another wedge over climate change is too depressing for words.
Enough.
To top it off another round from the Greens claiming nirvana if they can get in a position to screw over Labor and all the Labor members who put the effort into developing sane and popular policies.
The ABC Board has commissioned an independent review of the ABC’s editorial self-regulatory system and complaints handling, led by Professor John McMillan and senior media executive Jim Carroll. https://t.co/CQtXf9bWpC
I hadn’t realised what a large affair is COP26, involving a very wide range of participants and running over two weeks.
However the important dates are 31 October (procedural opening of negotiations), then 1&2 November (World Leaders Summit).
Summit is described as “Welcoming world leaders to COP to put forward high level ambition and action towards securing global net zero and keeping 1.5 degrees in reach; adapting to protect communities and natural habitats; and mobilising [fi]nance.”
So Morrison has a mere 13 days to cobble something together as the official Australian position.
It will be an utter shambles and Australia stands to be totally humiliated.
https://ukcop26.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/COP26-Presidency-Programme.pdf
EDIT: Copied text deleted.
@TrudyMcIntosh tweets
Labor is daring the Prime Minister to put a net zero target to a vote on the floor of Parliament – Joel Fitzgibbon promises Labor would back it. That would provide Morrison the numbers he needs to pass it.
BUT it would be a provocative move within the Coalition…
Vic:
It was people continuing to gather in households that drove the spread of Covid in Sydney’s western suburbs. And we all saw the results of that.
I understand Melbournians are lockdown weary, so hopefully the vax rates can get up there to provide some kind of protection.
Fess
I believe that is part of it.
Also the fact that those who are vaccinated are behaving differently as well, makes for an interesting combo.
The vax rates are really good in Melbourne and also the regions.
Another couple of weeks and we will be in an even better position.
Boosters should be next on the agenda for those who were vaccinated earlier in the year.
The question answers itself with Barnaby and Bridget in charge.
Coorey you are a total and complete disgrace to imply that Nats are party who can be reasoned with
——————
Try reasoning with Coorey.
guytaur @ #2046 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 9:29 am
Labor’s got the Liberals by the short ‘n curlies and should keep a firm grip.
How is Russia expected to supply more gas to Europe, without investing in “old energy”? Is IEA head Dr. Fatih Birol demanding Russian investors sacrifice themselves for the greater good of Europe?
Can you imagine what it must be like for Russian trade representatives discussing energy sales with their European counterparts? “You guys are evil, but please send some more evil right now, because your withholding of evil is evil”.
No doubt President Putin has tears of laughter streaming from his eyes, whenever he receives an update of the latest insanity of his trading partners.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58901566
Victoria @ #1425 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 9:25 am
Will we end up with more than a form letter when we complain?
guytaur @ #2040 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 9:22 am
Should’ve added, Election Now.
Victoria 1,903 cases and 7 deaths. NSW 265 cases and 5 deaths.
Ah, the Trumpophiliac Putin Ass Kisser has arrived.
”
lizziesays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 8:57 am
The federal government’s claim it is “meeting and beating” its targets is a falsehood. It is doing little, but claiming credit from the hard work of Australia’s states and territories.
Federal policies remain firmly fixed on keeping fossil fuels in the energy mix and expanding coal and gas production. It recently approved several new coal mines and announced subsidised and expanded gas production. Gas is a fossil fuel that also needs to be phased out if we’re to have any chance of keeping warming to 1.5℃.
”
According to some scientific calculations and estimations, the world has already reached warming of 1.1℃.
So it next to impossible to keep warming at or below 1.5℃
@cokeefe9 tweets
92.10% single dose, 80.76% double dose NSW. @9NewsSyd
Does anyone know if residents of Sydney are able to travel into the ACT yet? I read that ACT people can travel to regional NSW, but it didn’t mention Sydneysiders going to Canberra.
”
phoenixREDsays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 9:02 am
ABC reporting 1,903 new cases in Victoria …..
Victoria has recorded 1,903 new local COVID-19 cases and seven deaths as the state moves closer to the end of its lockdown
”
As per Taylormaid rounding mechanism, that number is 2000.
Confessions
My advice. Look directly in the NSW and ACT health websites.
Last I heard Sydney Siders could not travel to regions and I think that includes the ACT.
Fess
“Does anyone know if residents of Sydney are able to travel into the ACT yet? I read that ACT people can travel to regional NSW, but it didn’t mention Sydneysiders going to Canberra.”
No – no regional travel without exemption until 1 November and no certainty ACT will let us good people after that, I think.
BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
6h
UK COVID update: Biggest one-day increase in cases in nearly 3 months, up 30% from last week
– New cases: 45,140
– Average: 42,869 (+1,509)
– In hospital: 7,086 (no update)
– In ICU: 806 (no update)
– New deaths: 57
– Average: 122 (+3)
Ven
Only for Victoria, if it were for NSW it would be 1500.
Is there ever an outcome other than more ways to spin their non-actions?
lizzie @ #2063 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 9:15 am
As others have mentioned, Cassidy is surprisingly off target here. It has been the National Party meme for donkeys to divide the nation for personal benefit. They have long cultivated an ‘us vs them’ culture in the rural and regional areas. It is disgusting. But when you are a greedy, self-interested toady for the spivs – what else do you have to offer to national politics?
GT
“92.10% single dose, 80.76% double dose NSW. @9NewsSyd”
That is a few thousand first vaccinations only and reasonable for second dose (.44%)
Sunday vaccinations are low because of emphasis on GP/Pharmacy but it is now pitched battle to get every first vaccination from this point on – can NW get to 95%?
Second dose should remain steady.
Area based vax stats today and Indigenous stats which are usually incomprehensible.
”
Shellbellsays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 9:05 am
NSW 266 cases, 5 deaths, 606 hospital (-13), 132 ICU (-5)
”
Instead of what some posters said on PB based on overseas experience and numbers, it appears NSW may reach COVID numbers in single digits by end of this month and Gladys long term strategy appears to work.
It is unfortunate that she has to go due to alleged corrupt practices.
Has Barrie been paying any attention at all? He’s retired, so maybe not?
The Nats have been looking at the Libs dodgy accounting (I don’t know if they realise it’s dodgy) and noticed that a significant percentage of so-called “reductions” are attributed to the regions. The bulk of Australia’s economic activity has seen little change in emissions (under the Coalition).
They are now all like “what, we’ve been doing the heavy lifting all along unlike those lazy slackers in the cities and have been getting nothing for it, we better do something about that”.
Thanks Shellbell. I didn’t think they’d let us in, but thought it was worth checking nonetheless.
I note the good news that NSW is allowing travellers from NZ South Island in without quarantining (noting also that those people can not return without quarantining). I would suggest that with NSW opening up thanks to their high vaccination rate it might be wise for places like SA to one-up NSW and approach NZ for non-quarantine arrangements (both ways) with the South Island.
Fess
We are largely unloved.
@mrcannonbrookes tweets
Most significant, climate related, legal case in Australia resumes today at 2pm.
Our government is appealing the prior ruling that the Environment Department has to consider the affect of environmental damage on our kids & future generation.
Yup. Govt appealing against that.
@KeiranPender tweets
Thread: On Monday, perhaps the most significant climate case yet in Australian history is before the Full Federal Court, Environment Minister v Sharma. It could have significant implications for climate (in)action. In today’s @SatPaper I preview the case..
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/10/16/the-climate-case-that-has-the-morrison-government-scrambling
SK
Time for Adelaide International airport to start humming.
Morrison PM, with this latest hullabaloo perhaps nothing more than a dry storm west of Broken Hill, enables the marketeer to go to an election as the climate change warrior.
Morrison gets to be liberal hero, sitting next to little Johnnie at the big table and Barnaby remains DPM thereby balancing the extra marital books.
You’d wish their politics were deeper than this but this is the lucky country with more poker machines per head of pop. than anywhere in the world.
Glasgow, what Glasgow.
We have never seen the Nationals more rabid than when independent MPs in the regions were making good deals for the bush (and the nation) with a fed ALP gov. Their very reason for existing was under threat and nothing was too low for them in their fight against that.
”
Vensays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 9:16 am
”
David Crowe says Barnaby Joyce has weakened Scott Morrison just two weeks before world leaders are due to meet in Glasgow to decide their pledges on climate change. Joyce has left the Prime Minister with little room to move on one of the key negotiations at the United Nations climate summit: the goal of making deeper cuts to emissions by 2030.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/joyce-weakens-morrison-before-world-leaders-decide-their-pledges-on-climate-change-20211017-p590p8.html
”
This is a crap argument. Joyce repeatedly days Nats are a different party and they are. Libs know that Mata will not have any numbers in Parliament without the help of Libs. It is Mata who will loose totally without the support of Libs. Libs should use that as a leverage to secure the deal in the first place.
Crowe is just giving cover to Morrison for no policy Net zero.
”
I do not understand why autocorrect changes Nats to Mata.
Shellbell @ #2086 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 9:35 am
The existence of direct flights to NZ and Singapore was a (small) factor in deciding (allowing) to move to SA. It still annoys me how few direct flights there are to the South Island.
Worth also noting that there are A LOT of Sydney residents from South Australia with family in SA who often return over Christmas. It is weighing on Marshall and the Emergency committee. They will need to make (and I expect there will be) a firm decision on this in the coming days.
Ven @ #1452 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 10:01 am
It’s not unfortunate, it’s the law. You do the crime you do the time. Out of power in her case. Because no one believes she wouldn’t have gone, unless the evidence she saw against her was damning.
I feel like Scomo is the kind of man who’ll react badly if you were to call him a Coward. I think labor should try and goad him into getting an outcome with the nationals.
If only to have it all blow up whilst he’s overseas.
Im happy to see Australia embarrassed on the world stage, esp if it forces us to deliver eventually on CC.
the Morrison climate plan: I suppose Angus will do the briefing.
https://www.icac.nsw.gov.au/investigations/live-streaming-of-public-inquiries/operation-keppel-live-stream
Be there of be square!
Let the fun begin!
SK
Have a look at Routeburn track if you have not done so already?
”
Redlands Mowermansays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 9:45 am
How is Russia expected to supply more gas to Europe, without investing in “old energy”? Is IEA head Dr. Fatih Birol demanding Russian investors sacrifice themselves for the greater good of Europe?
Can you imagine what it must be like for Russian trade representatives discussing energy sales with their European counterparts? “You guys are evil, but please send some more evil right now, because your withholding of evil is evil”.
No doubt President Putin has tears of laughter streaming from his eyes, whenever he receives an update of the latest insanity of his trading partners.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58901566
”
“Evil” Russia
We can’t live with them and we cannot live without them. 🙂
Why can’t US do what they did to Iraq and Iran? 🙂
ICAC good stuff such as it exists will be starting right now
‘scary media’ on china:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-puts-us-on-back-foot-with-game-changing-hypersonic-missile-test-20211018-p590rn.html
‘positive media’ on western countries:
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/09/australia-to-procure-tomahawk-and-hypersonic-missiles/
I suspect that the author’s answer to his rhetorical question lies in the Govermment and top ADF brasses love of all things Anglo-American. This is one obvious downside to the tunnel vision of being completely embedded with AUKUS – we are literally killing off our options to contract to any other defence prime contractor outside the AUKUS relationship.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/special-reports/apache-theres-room-for-two-army-attack-helicopters/news-story/f2515659adb58aa1d18bddc0f9690eab?nk=f2d85620579a65b66cdf23030f682da3-1634511098
Right now there are two Airbus / Eurocopter helicopter platforms that we have, which although they have had their problems are now mature and reliable, that both look like they will be scrapped ion favour of platforms that are not necessarily as good for the sort of roles that our force struure envisages.
Firstly, the specs of the MRH90 helicopter are better suited to being the main ADF workhorse than going back to Blackhawks – its payload – both in troops carried and maximum cargo is about 40% better. There have been some supply chain problems but Airbus actually has a dedicated mainatence and build facility in Brisbane that is more than capable of maintaining a combined fleet of 70 military eurocopters.
Secondly, the Tiger is now a very mature and capable platform. It’s design is 25 younger than the venerable Apache. It is smaller and lighter. Less susceptible to corrosion. Moreover it now has a proven track record of fighting alongside the american attack helicopter. Interoperability is NOT a problem if it were retained for the next 20+ years of its expected service life.
The clinching argument for retaining the Apache relates to the 20 program that has seen australia develop a world class amphibious warfare capability. The Apache is now fully integrated with our combined amphibious forces. Being smaller, lighter and less prone to corrosion makes it ideal for our amphibious warfare requirements. On the other hand the Apache is a proven, reliable and cost effective workhorse.
As the author opines we should be keeping the Tiger in service alongside the Apache. However, in my view the Tiger should be sent to a dedicated squadron in Townsville – the home of our amphibious warfare operations and attached to the 3rd combat brigade there. A squadron of apaches should be permanently based at Amberley Airbase and attached to the 7th combat brigade stationed in Brisbane, with one remaining squadron being attached to the 1st combat brigade in Darwin (which would also be home to a dedicated attack helicopter flight school – a mixed squadron of apache and Tiger helicopters). This way, each of of the three rotating combat brigades would have a squadron of attack helicopters always available.
The 47 MHR90’s should be also divided into separate squadrons and assigned to each combat brigade.
If the ADF wants to buy back into Black Hawks, then a a 20-30 helicopter buy in for assignment to special forces command (effectively in size and structure a fourth combat brigade) with a squadron of each being stationed at Campbell barracks in Perth and Holsworthy in Sydney.
The navy have decided to use the navalised variant of the Blackhawk – the Seahawk – as their general purpose helo – which makes sense given that that platform was chosen to fulfil the anti submarine warfare role (besides, the combined amphibious warfare force structure has now integrated army MRH90s onto our LHDs, so there is no real need to continue to ‘share’ MRH90s across the services anymore). I do note however, as a counterpoint to the anti MRH90 press coming out of certain quarters of the ADF, that the navy lost a Seahawk in unexplained circumstances in the Philippines Sea last week …