The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
@larissawaters tweets
First Nations woman @dorinda_cox sworn in as Greens Senator for WA, to fill the shoes of the wonderful Rachel Siewert, led in by two other Greens women of colour. Greens now nominating @MehreenFaruqi as Senate President. We need more women of colour in parliament! #auspol
Shellbell @ #2096 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 9:47 am
Not yet. I have done the Cascade Saddle. Matukituki river to Dart River. Always been keen to head to Mt Aspiring – no need to peak, just around Colin Todd hut.
”
Zerlosays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 9:56 am
BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
6h
UK COVID update: Biggest one-day increase in cases in nearly 3 months, up 30% from last week
– New cases: 45,140
– Average: 42,869 (+1,509)
– In hospital: 7,086 (no update)
– In ICU: 806 (no update)
– New deaths: 57
– Average: 122 (+3)
”
According to my relative in UK, people in UK no longer care about these numbers. They are behaving as if COVID issue is solved. Overwhelming number of people are neither wearing masks nor social distancing.
SK
Routeburn may be below your pay grade
Simon Katich
Might be worth the 2 weeks 🙂
.
.
The Kaikōura Coast Track is a must-do walk for every Kiwi
The Kaikōura Coast Track, long considered one of New Zealand’s finest private walks is open from October 1 to April 30 – and there’s no time like the present for a two-day jaunt, says Patrick Smith.
The word “awesome” appears often among walkers’ reviews on the Kaikōura Coast Track website. But, standing on a rocky knob called Skull Peak, almost 500 metres above the coast, the word seems a bit… inadequate.
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https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/the-kaikoura-coast-track-is-a-must-do-walk-for-every-kiwi/UUYOSOUXDSY376RW3XGVRJMA6I/
Ven says:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 10:25 am
Not suprising, people will act like this the same way.
Ok, so in the opening statements of the assisting QC, she’s totally doomed.
It’ll be the non declaring conflict of interests!
God these people must love their work. Looks so fun.
Would the Greens be prepared to support a Labor candidate for president of the senate, should they nominate someone?
south
I was thinking the same. Counsel Assisting referred to the “Berejiklian Ministerial Code of Conduct”.
Sorry, I stuffed up the references in my above helicopter post in this paragraph:
“ The clinching argument for retaining the Apache relates to the 20 program that has seen australia develop a world class amphibious warfare capability. The Apache is now fully integrated with our combined amphibious forces. Being smaller, lighter and less prone to corrosion makes it ideal for our amphibious warfare requirements. On the other hand the Apache is a proven, reliable and cost effective workhorse.”
The first two references to the Apache should in fact be references to the Tiger. Mia Culpa.
In my experience of the local Greens (MacNamara) they hate Labor and would be happy to be junior coalition partners with the Liberals
”
guytaursays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 10:05 am
@mrcannonbrookes tweets
Most significant, climate related, legal case in Australia resumes today at 2pm.
Our government is appealing the prior ruling that the Environment Department has to consider the affect of environmental damage on our kids & future generation.
Yup. Govt appealing against that.
@KeiranPender tweets
Thread: On Monday, perhaps the most significant climate case yet in Australian history is before the Full Federal Court, Environment Minister v Sharma. It could have significant implications for climate (in)action. In today’s @SatPaper I preview the case..
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/10/16/the-climate-case-that-has-the-morrison-government-scrambling
”
I wonder why this case missed the eagle eye of some of PB expert legal brains. 🙂
Surely this case is more important than Vaccination case ir Palmer fart case.
Ven @ #2191 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 9:25 am
Common pattern. First a nation lets the virus in, then it becomes psychologically broken. Because the fact that letting the virus in was a huge mistake that can never be taken back is too difficult to assimilate. So just ignore reality and substitute a new one.
Australia is still on the first step. Thanks, NSW and Gladys. And that Perrottet guy is working hard on the second step. Thanks yet again, NSW.
ICAC Counsel Assisting has said that no inference of corrupt behaviour is made towards the officials of the two grant recipients. So when they appear they have nothing to lose by being totally candid as both Maguire and Berejiklian won’t be around in the state government sphere anymore.
Shellbell @ #2104 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 9:56 am
Not really, especially these days. Hence the note that I dont feel the need to peak Aspiring.
The Cascade Saddle was hard. But mainly because we overpacked (if I cant have beer, port and bacon and eggs on a hike, and preferably a nice steak for at least one dinner, I aint going – and both require a good heavy based saucepan) and didnt dilly dally. It didnt help that my sook mate busted his knee 3/4s through.
”
days.
C@tmommasays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 10:11 am
Ven @ #1452 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 10:01 am
”
Shellbellsays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 9:05 am
NSW 266 cases, 5 deaths, 606 hospital (-13), 132 ICU (-5)
”
Instead of what some posters said on PB based on overseas experience and numbers, it appears NSW may reach COVID numbers in single digits by end of this month and Gladys long term strategy appears to work.
It is unfortunate that she has to go due to alleged corrupt practices.
It’s not unfortunate, it’s the law. You do the crime you do the time. Out of power in her case. Because no one believes she wouldn’t have gone, unless the evidence she saw against her was damning.
”
We will know this week whether the evidence against her is damning. Now that she is gone we have a religious conservative running the state.
Ticker at base of ABC24 screen one time translated “berejiklian” as “magically”.
Is there still a Kaikoura coast?
Have the seals come back?
Is that truck still there selling lobster and mutilating oysters by deep frying them?
At the moment the climate debate is all about liberal v National.
Where it will get interesting over coming weeks is in Queensland where the two parties are combined under the LNP banner. It is Queensland LNP regional pollies that appear to be driving the opposition to any targets being set.
If nationally the liberals and Nationals continue to fight how will it affect the dynamics of the LNP in Queensland ? Could it cause a split between regional Nationals and urban liberals and fracture the LNP leading up to the election given that, at the best of times, the alliance is held together by chewing gum and sticky tape ?
Barnaby looks back on his $100 lamb roasts spiel as his moment in the sun before Carbon Tax was defeated. Now he has another to look forward to and he’s charging forward like a red-faced bull at a gate.
I’m not great with double negatives. Just puttin’ that out there. 😐
doyley,
The Liberals will cave to the Nationals. Again. Then they’ll send the Salesman In Chief out to say that black is green.
https://youtu.be/7VRwRJI_qX0
I tend to agree with DN that it is just a show. It will miraculously come together, fractures stitched perfectly with the highest quality spin, ready for the election with a top draw claytons (meaningless) policy. it will have something in it for the city Libs to show the rusted ons and the regional Nats to claim a win.
a r
That’s not actually true. Vaccines make it easier to get to zero, witness NSW’s declining case numbers up until now (we’ll see what happens in a couple of weeks though). But we’d need to maintain quarantine, some of the softer health measures (social distancing, masks, etc) and accept that we might have to deal with outbreaks by temporary application of stricter health measures.
lizzie @ #2041 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 10:47 am
Nice one, Lizzie.
I worry that case numbers are misleading – with the vaccinated there will be more asymptomatic cases that wont bother getting tested. And it becomes less important (but still important) in a sense that the main success metric in suppression will be hospitalisations.
Is there any randomised testing for a better picture (or at least a cross check on the accuracy of the case numbers)?
Does Badham realise that the Libs are not part of that “global consensus”? 😛
Channel 10 guy:
Brett Mason
@BrettMasonNews
“We won’t be rushed” says coalition partner, 2,963 days after forming government. Seriously. #auspol
D N
I’m sure she does.
Simon Katich at 10:43 am
There are only two permissible ways to have oysters , raw or beer battered. Fish and chips and half a dozen battered Bluff oysters.Mmmmmmmm.
News from ICAC:
Colin Tucker
@colintucker
NSW #ICAC has just played a trainwreck clip of Mr Robertson asking Gladys Berejiklian if she suspected Mr Maguire was corrupt and she failed to answer the question repeatedly, stating she “didn’t know”. She was asked over and over again and continued to not answer the question.
Gladys must be hurting bad to get through this and run in Warringah…Thinks…’Don’t admit to anything, Gladys’. 🙄
poroti @ #2132 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 10:30 am
And I once held you in such high esteem.
Yes, there are two ways to eat oysters. 1. Natural and 2. with caviar, gin and lemon.
But I guess if all you have is bluff oysters then maybe deep frying makes sense.
Channel 10 guy:
Brett Mason
@BrettMasonNews
“We won’t be rushed” says coalition partner, 2,963 days after forming government. Seriously. #auspol
The reactionaries have been making super political profits from denial, delay, obfuscation, deceit, betrayal and duplicity on climate change for 25 years. Why would they stop now?
At a federal level the liberals and Nationals may reach a majority consensus.
However, Queensland is a very strange beast at the federal level especially in the regional and rural areas and it is in Queensland that the opposition to any deal is strongest and it is also Queensland where Joyce has his strongest support atm.
It must be remembered that Joyce is leader of the Nationals with a very slim majority. If Barnaby has Morrison by the balls then regional LNP members are grabbing Joyce just as hard.
Where will it all land ? Perhaps posters are correct and agreement will be reached and peace prevails in the coalition. However, I do urge caution when expecting LNP pollies to act “ rationally”.
Anyway, we shall see.
Cheers.
SK
Casey Briggs says positive cases versus rate of testing is something. If it is stable or even coming down as cases fall then there is accuracy, as I understand it
“NSW: Positivity rate hovering just under 0.5% of all tests, with the general trend being that cases are falling faster than test numbers”
Celebrated street artist Banksy has unveiled his biggest project yet – a full-scale parody of a parliamentary system, perched on a hill in the Australian town of Canberra
.
Called simply ‘The Australian Government’, critics have described the giant installation as ‘absurd, alarming and on the whole massively disappointing’.
The project has been shrouded in secrecy for years, with many locals assuming the building was a serious place of work. “When it was revealed today as a Banksy piece, it all made sense,” one Canberra local said.
An interactive art piece, visitors can view surreal live performances called ‘Question Time’ or have sex in the ‘prayer room’.
In a quirk that could only be conceived by Banksy, the piece is actually paid for by taxpayers but owned by mining companies.
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2021/10/15/banksy-reveals-latest-installation/
”
southsays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 10:14 am
I feel like Scomo is the kind of man who’ll react badly if you were to call him a Coward. I think labor should try and goad him into getting an outcome with the nationals.
If only to have it all blow up whilst he’s overseas.
Im happy to see Australia embarrassed on the world stage, esp if it forces us to deliver eventually on CC.
”
I will not be happy to see Australia embarrassed on the world stage although the world will trust Australia less due to betrayal of France on Nuclear deal because of which they will be suspicious of Australia on negotiated Net zero target. Who knows what Morrison will do if things favour him in next year or so like
1. He winning next federal election
2. Macron loosing Presidential election
3. Democrats loosing control of US Congress {either HOR and Senate or both. (Damn it people are already saying thatDems can loose Virginia Governorship and House)}.
Lockdown lifting tonight in Southern Tasmania.
Bugger.
There goes the peace and quiet.
It was great while it lasted.
Ven @ #2060 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 11:12 am
I’ve always thought Labor should laugh at him more often.
I reckon he has a glass jaw.
NSW #ICAC has just played a trainwreck clip of Mr Robertson asking Gladys Berejiklian if she suspected Mr Maguire was corrupt and she failed to answer the question repeatedly, stating she “didn’t know”. She was asked over and over again and continued to not answer the question.
No one cares if Maguire was corrupt, he is the awful lying lecher who treated our Gladys so horribly.
Simon Katich – I would suggest that hospitalisations and deaths are in fact the only Covid metric that actually matters. Obviously catching any illness is a drag for anyone it happens to, but so long as they don’t get that sick and stay out of hospital, it really shouldn’t be anything that greatly concerns the rest of us.
The NSW numbers have been really interesting to watch, and appear to be proof positive that vaccination works. Many exerts (including the many self-appointed ones on this site) were assuring us that NSW would peak at the mid-thousands of daily cases before declining, whereas we hit 1600 on 11th September and it’s steadily declined ever since. Then the same experts told us to expect a horror month in the hospitals in October – but hospitalisations (including ICU) have declined in line with cases. Now we are assured that cases will explode on the back on opening up, and while it’s still early days, case numbers have continued to go down (and one week on from so-called freedom day, you’d think we’d start to see some sort of bump up in numbers by now).
If I’ve learned one things from this pandemic, it’s that epidemiologists are like economists, in that they are mostly pessimists who try to outdo each other with horror predictions – and of course, the media likes to amplify the voices of doom, and so those voices get a lot more coverage. This is mirrored on this site, with the added spice that posters will go after conservative governments far more than Labor ones. This conforms with my own philosophical outlook, but it might be nice if some of the usual suspects on here would reflect on their views every now and then.
C@t, the Shovels recent ‘6 ways vaccinations are different from the Holocaust’ is the pinnacle of their work in recent times.
Shell, yes Briggs makes sense there. But surely that is just a good guide – yes, a good assurance that new cases are dropping. As a guide, it will get less reliable when/if testing numbers drop. For other states and countries thinking about opening up to NSW and Victoria (without quarantine), a better indication may help. Marshall has said that quarantine will still be required for hotspots. How “hot” a hotspot is would be easier to determine with randomised testing. I dont know how feasible that is.
Having said that, Marshall is saying that SA will probably still require testing of people who come into the state – at least in the short term. This would serve as a kinda randomised test of the case numbers in NSW.
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 10:20 am
I suspect that the author’s answer to his rhetorical question lies in the Govermment and top ADF brasses love of all things Anglo-American. This is one obvious downside to the tunnel vision of being completely embedded with AUKUS – we are literally killing off our options to contract to any other defence prime contractor outside the AUKUS relationship.
”
Killing off our options to contract to any other defence prime contractor outside the AUKUS relationship is real possibility and that may be the intention of US and UK with this deal. However, how many countries is Australia willing to do defence deals with other than France outside of US and UK None IMO. They won’t do defence deals with ‘evil’ Russia and Communist China. Yes there are other countries like Japan , Germany,Italy who manufacture Defence equipment. But does Australia have history buying from them.
Generally I agree. But for states opening up to NSW, case numbers are important. It will determine when and the way they let people in – if quarantine is required, testing etc. It may also guide a state to its other restrictions like masks, mandates, social distancing, crowd limits etc.
And, as I mentioned a while ago, case numbers precede hospitalisations and deaths. For quick identification of hotspots, case numbers are useful.
ICAC now into the 40th minute of its 10 minute break.
Shellbell
Not any more!
Just to add some proper perspective here.
Australia is at 54.5% fully vaccinated (67.9% single dose) as a percentage of the population.
We have a long way to go to get past 80%
NSW is at 64.6% (74.0%)
VIC is at 53.3% (71.3%)
Again, we have a way to go to get anywhere near “safe” levels of vaccination.
Put it another way, in NSW a third of the population is still not vaccinated and in VIC, nearly a half. And we’re hell bent on “fully opening” – which means letting it rip (especially through the non vaccinated).
@SteamPhallus:
“ No one cares if Maguire was corrupt, he is the awful lying lecher who treated our Gladys so horribly.”
An attempt at satire, am I right?
No? Sacrebleu!
‘Cause Maguire broke up Gladys marriage with promises to make a forever life together. What? The opposite was true. Who would have thought THAT.
Or, perhaps … ‘Cause McGuire was ina a position of power and authority over Gladys and abused that position of power in pursuit of his illicit carnal desires? WHAT! The opposite was true! Again. Well blow me down.
OK, OK … maybe … ‘Cause after dumping poor gladys he promised to do better and got back with her after his first exposure of corruption only to DUMP our Glad (dear Glad, the perfect head girl, sigh) when ICAC came knocking again. What!!!!! It was the other way around …. AGAIN.
So, Phallus, you post MUST have been satire. Am I right?