The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
Nats practising how to think about stuff.
”
lizziesays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 10:51 am
Vax Badham
@vanbadham
·
12h
Whenever you catch yourself thinking a handful of people can’t make a difference in the world, please remember that a single room of clowns from the National Party stand about to wreck a global consensus on climate action.
”
I believe Bandham is not correct if she thinks only Nats are in the way. If Repubs win 2022 midterm elections all version Climate policy are off. The Repubs are the biggest Climate change deniers. They don’t believe in Science. Period as Americans want to say.
“ However, how many countries is Australia willing to do defence deals with other than France outside of US and UK None IMO. ”
The Germans. The Spanish. The Italians. The Koreans. The Japanese. Sweden. Israel even. All have very good military kit and programs that make them suitable for at least genuine consideration for partnering with as prime defence contractors.
Why our Land 400 program is predicated on such. However i fear that all the billions and years of investments in THAT long overdue program could well be undone over this coming decade in favour of … American junk.
“we are literally killing off our options to contract to any other defence prime contractor outside the AUKUS relationship.”
It will make it difficult. Contractors outside of AUKUS certainly now have reason to factor in increased sovereign risk into any contract.
Sadly I fear the coalition will neutralise the whole Climate Change narrative with one word ….. ‘sensible’.
“The Coalition has a sensible plan for emission reductions blah blah blah”…it has already started.
That is level of debate in this country.
I try. I defended AZ for example. I agreed with the general principle of Berejiklian wanting to stop focus on case numbers in the media. I backed Job Keeper and only criticised it when it was clear Morrison sat on his hands for too long instead of sharpening that very blunt policy.
But I do worry that a rush to opening may risk an opportunity that rising vaccination rates present. I understand why people and politicians want to move on. But rushing to open borders and ditch internal restrictions like masks and indoor gathering sizes may actually make it harder to move on.
In SA we have a lot of freedoms. Business is mostly booming. So opening up has both benefits and real risks.
Reminds me of Abzorbaloff.
DisplayName @ #2213 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 9:50 am
Yes, but with caveats, like the ones you mentioned. Plus you have to watch for waning efficacy. And make sure you’re using an efficacious vaccine in the first place. The UK is fairly well-vaccinated and stuck on a fairly high plateau of daily infections.
Also be mindful about attributing all of covid’s decline in NSW to vaccination. That’s undoubtedly helping at this point. But so are (were) the restrictions. And the warmer spring days, etc..
The easiest way to get to zero is to be at zero when you open up, with a fully (or as fully as practicable) vaccinated population. Taking shortcuts has proven disastrous many times over.
The NBN is not shining with the ICAC hookup.
Premier Dominic Perrottet has confirmed that unvaccinated people will still have to follow one of the most hated mask restrictions, while vaxxed residents enjoy the new freedom.
From Monday, fully vaccinated NSW residents are no longer required to wear a mask while in the office, in a bid to encourage people to return to work.
However, the Premier made a point of reminding unvaccinated workers that they would have to keep donning a mask if they wanted to be in the office.
”
Steelydansays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 11:19 am
NSW #ICAC has just played a trainwreck clip of Mr Robertson asking Gladys Berejiklian if she suspected Mr Maguire was corrupt and she failed to answer the question repeatedly, stating she “didn’t know”. She was asked over and over again and continued to not answer the question.
No one cares if Maguire was corrupt, he is the awful lying lecher who treated our Gladys so horribly.
”
Steelydun
You make me laugh with your post. I never thought you are capable of that. Thanks for making laugh. 🙂
Earlwood You do prattle on don’t you.
This is about public perception i.e voters. Maguire = lying lecherous weasel and I am calling Gladys will be shown to have done nothing. Simple. Then hopefully Warringah, one vital extra seat for the Libs.
Busy day today, so don’t have time to stop and chat. But this Twitter thread is helpful for people to understand what is happening overseas with COVID and why UK is in more trouble v other parts of Europe. Guess what type of population we have?
“ It will make it difficult. Contractors outside of AUKUS certainly now have reason to factor in increased sovereign risk into any contract.”
Probably the only way out of this mess if Albo wins and then mends fences with France and goes ahead with the first one or two block purchases of the Attack class sub while we sort out the looming SSN program mess. That might steady the nerves of the other potential prime contractors out there. Especially if an Albanese government also commits to see through the lifespan of the Airbus helicopters we have in service AND awards the last phase of Land 400 (the tracked Infantry Fighting Vehicles) to Rheinmetall AND orders another three AWD destroyers from Navantia (Spain) whilst we sort out the real emerging problems with the Hunter Class frigate program (the hull is too small for all the kit that the RAN now wants to put into it over the life of the frigates: its hull proving to be borderline unstable in sea trials with the RN at 8,000 tonnes – the RAN ultimately wants to have it operational at 12,000 tonnes [in fact on current requirements it is to be introduced into service at 10,000 tonne].
Good stuff.
Steelydan
Heaven forbid that facts and reality should be the issue in matters of corruption in government.The LNP would be aghast at such a prospect.
HMMM…..Land 400 is an interesting one. Germans are in the box seat for that one (pardon the pun) but Korea is VERY strong competitor.
And, the Koreans appear to have won the contract for local manufacture of SPG’s.
https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/land/hanwha-to-build-self-propelled-howitzers-in-geelong
These are however two classes of defense kit where the US and the UK just dont have any offerings even remotely of the same quality available. Their recent programs in that context are considered poorly run and disorganized. They have been after a Bradley replacement for ages and thats gone nowhere bar some prototypes and the Brits…..well who the fuck knows what the Brits are up too except suffering Brexit induced decline?
Hopefully with a change in Govt the ALP will be able to repair relationships and alleviate some of the damage the Libs have done, but its gunna cost $ in unofficial “risk penalties” i reckon. 🙁
“ This is about public perception i.e voters. ”
Yes. yes. A large slice of the voting public in NSW are neo-Peronists. They love their property boom times. Stadiums. Strong woman projections. This has been reinforced by a stable diet of Gladys! In 9Faix, by her BBF’s in the ABC (yay Girlpower) and up until recently, the Orcs in Mordor.
The litany of incompetence, mal administration (asset recycling anyone?) and – at the very least – industrial scale corruption adjacent behaviour is a matter of objective analysis.
Ultimately the question is, does NSW want to be run a long the lines of an Argentine Junta? Or an accountable liberal democracy.
Holdenhillbilly @ Monday, October 18, 2021 at 11:41 am
As mentioned in twitter thread I posted above, mask use is a key difference between UK and other parts of Europe. Although that is ascociation level evidence. The study in Bangladesh is the best level of evidence I know of currently: https://www.poverty-action.org/publication/impact-community-masking-covid-19-cluster-randomized-trial-bangladesh
😆 So says a Senator from the Liberal Party.
.
My view on net zero is that it’s a folly. It’s an absolute folly. It is nothing more than a catch cry and a slogan for the ruling class political elites
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/oct/18/australian-politics-live-barnaby-joyce-says-nationals-not-chained-to-a-script-on-net-zero#:~:text=My-,view,-on%20net%20zero
Camera angles are awkward. Bret Walker’s scalp – Ruth McColl’s left side
The excerpt from Berejiklian being quizzed a few months ago about Maguire is cautionary for any minister past or present appearing before a commission of inquiry.
Four or five times ( I lost count) she tried to dodge a question about whether she might have thought Maguire was corrupt.
Eventually she said “no”.
This is a much tougher gig than chatting with your mates in the media.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 11:50 am
Ultimately the question is, does NSW want to be run a long the lines of an Argentine Junta? Or an accountable liberal democracy.
____________________
An accountable liberal democracy, like the previous Labor government?
Among the NSW deceased
“A woman in her 30s from the Cessnock area died at John Hunter Hospital. She was not vaccinated and had underlying health conditions.”
“ An accountable liberal democracy, like the previous Labor government?”
Yes. The one that was held to account – that had three former premiers blind up to give evidence against the bad apples (a bit of am contrast isn’t it? Three Labor premiers giving evidence against corruption, verses three former liberal premiers [and counting] that were entangled in corruption), and the bad apples were then prosecuted according to law.
So. Exactly.
Lurkersays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 11:56 am
An accountable liberal democracy, like the previous Labor government?
They were held accountable at the ballot box……as any corrupt govt should be.
“ They were held accountable at the ballot box……as any corrupt govt should be.”
Were they really held accountable at the ballot box because of corruption? Or because they simply ran out of puff, and since the January 2008 special conference, had lost the basic ability to govern cohesively?
Actually I can’t think of an Australian government that was more like the Argentine Junta than the Obeid Shadow regime. Well apart from Joh’s mob.
Well at least ICAC is holding this liberal government account.
Other than that a YouTube comedian seems to be the only media holding it to account. Kinda sad really
south @ Monday, October 18, 2021 at 10:14 am
Agreed. I have been long advocating on here that Labor (and The Greens and any politician/political party not in Government) adopt a political strategy of promulgating the Cowardly Morrison motif. Narcissists are threatened by being ‘discovered’ as a coward and are prone to narcissistic rage. Morrison could be perceived to demonstrate such behaviour when feeling threatened, particularly by women. Electoral poison.
The NSW 2011 election was not a corruption election. It was an exodus election in that a score or more previously elected ALP members in 2007 had exeunted.
The liberal nsw government is up there with the junta. Using cops to silence comedians for exposing it’s corruption.
doyley @ #2119 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 9:44 am
I suspect there’s not much there to fracture in Queensland. The Queensland LNP might be more accurately named the lNP, and with a lower case L, or maybe the NlP. My local federal member is a quiet plastic Liberal mouthpiece. My State member is a Christian soldier. Both are “lower case libs”.
@AE…….I suspect a bit of both tbh.
The interesting thing is Gladys is still well regarded…( go figure ) but Perrotet not so much.
If she is found to have acted corruptly I get the feeling that people will say it was “the bad man McGuire” that lied and led her on . My sisters have said words to this effect…..lol
A look at our likely future for vax.
.
.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has authorized a third dose of the Pfizer shot for certain people who previously got that vaccine: those aged 65 or older, those aged 18 to 64 who have underlying health conditions that put them at risk of severe COVID and people in the latter age group who are at high risk of occupational exposure, such as health care workers and teachers.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s director recommended the shots for all three groups—overruling the agency’s own advisory panel, which had not recommended people receive an extra dose based on their occupation.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/who-needs-a-covid-booster-shot-experts-answer-common-questions/
CNN
I wonder how much this matters these days. They are up against Fox and a social media campaign that is both grass roots and probably heavily assisted by external actors as well as carefully aided by Trumps allies. And then there is also Trump and his cult like influence on so many people.
Worth remembering that Democrats vastly outspent Republicans in 2020.
I’ll just sit back and watch, a hopefully, Albanese PM not do what Earlwood tells him to. 🙂
I think the “we love our Gladys” movement is largely a product of the blue rinse Liberal faithful, plus a few bargain-basement feminists in the media (who now appear to have been shamed into silence).
I cannot see how she would have much of a hope in Warringah: but then neither would any other Liberal. Moral high ground-occupying independents are notoriously difficult to unseat at either the Federal or State level.
And ICAC is going to be extremely difficult for her. From where I sit, she’s buried very deeply in merde, and her way out doesn’t look particularly clear. The conflict of interest issues that will be examined would appear to be extremely serious, and I don’t think blaming Maguire for everything is going to be anywhere near enough. As I have posted before, I believe that for a powerful politician to engage in a long-term clandestine relationship is not tenable in the modern era: especially with a colleague who also had a range of business interests.
lizzie @ #2151 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 10:35 am
Brilliant title. Still chuckling.
“ My sisters have said words to this effect…..lol”
Yes. Its amazing how many of women of NSW brain’s have collectively broken. She was the dreaded ‘other woman’: doesn’t register, no matter how many times this is pointed out. Nor does the fact that it’s was her that had the power in that relationship. Or that it was her that broke it off … and only when ICAC came knocking again [not about fresh allegations per se, but because their ‘pillow talk’ from 2017-18 was recorded via search warrant taps].
“ I’ll just sit back and watch, a hopefully, Albanese PM not do what Earlwood tells him to. ”
So … you are quite happy with potential prime contractors being reduced to a a pool of two … that we would be forced to buy stuff not necessarily designed for our specific strategic needs … at a premium … and on the understanding that whatever and whenever america loses the plot on some sort of military adventurism … we jump in before even being asked.
I presume, just because in your fetid mind, having a murder boner for the ChiComms trumps all. And an insane belief that America is and always will be a reliable partner. Despite totally half of their political establishment being totally embedded in Trumpian lunacy … with no apparent escape plan. …
Simon Katich – I certainly wasn’t meaning to have a go at you personally (or indeed anyone in particular, as I generally try to avoid getting personal, and I personally have always found your posts quite considered), I was just using your comment as a starting point to making a general point about Covid horror predictions.
On to matters psephological, are we now assuming that by going to Glasgow, Morrison has taken the option of a 2021 election off the table? The earliest he can call the election now is 27th November, which you’d think is also the last possible date this year (4th December is getting a bit too close to Christmas, and after that even more so). By going off to COP26 (and therefore being off any campaign trail for two weeks) Morrison does appear to be signalling that the Libs’ internal polling is such that they don’t think they can win this year.
My own best guess was always for March 2022, most probably on Saturday 5th March, with the election called on Penal Colony Foundation Day (aka Australia Day). This seems to be in the sweet spot (for Morrison) of the afterglow of a “freedom summer”, with relatively low case numbers (and cases generally seem to lower everywhere in the hotter months, a few made US states notwithstanding), but before they increase again as the weather cools. Of course, if polling is still tricky for him in late January, he may yet hold off until May like last time (April is tricky, given Easter and school holidays).
Polling right now doesn’t seem to have moved much in recent weeks, with a status quo of about 53/47, based on approximate primaries of LNP 38, ALP 37, GRN 10 & others 15. You’d imagine that Morrison would want to see some of trend back towards the dark side before pulling the trigger.
BK @ #2080 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 11:40 am
The coalition’s version of the NBN.
The NBN was never completed.
lizzie @ #2089 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 11:49 am
Why are Coalition ladies such cows.
Torchbearer @ #2076 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 11:38 am
Another bludger glimpses the awful reality of what’s coming.
Re Gladys, there does seem to be some inherent affection for her among the NSW electorate, even among Labor voters. She is, on the face of it, reasonably likeable, and not a cookie-cutter politician. I’m not so sure that the ICAC thing will affect that view that much. ICAC generally goes to technical breaches, and something has to be a) an obvious breach that an apolitical voter can get, and b) confirmation bias of a pre-existing view of the person (eg Obeid), and your average voter in NSW probably bakes in a degree of low-level corruption in our state leaders. This can be a bit maddening to Labor rusted-ons like me, but that’s politics sometimes. I’m willing to guess that by the time we get to the end of the decade, she’s probably be the one premier that your average voter remembers, and that by and large those memories will be mostly positive.
Don’t be so rude to cows.
Cud Chewer @ #2118 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 12:37 pm
I’ve got 11 just out the back here and I’ve already apologised 🙂
Oh dear…
At the heart of the probe is two grants: the $5.5m given to the Australian Clay Target Association’s clubhouse and convention centre in 2017, and $30m for the Riverina conservatorium of music in Wagga Wagga in 2018.
Counsel assisting the commissioner, barrister Scott Robertson, has spent this morning outlining the Icac’s case against Berejiklian.
He says the evidence will show that Maguire was “a strong supporter” of the two projects, and “vociferously advocated for government support” for them, including directly to Berejiklian.
“We also expect the evidence to demonstrate that Ms Berejiklian made or participated in the making of decisions [that] advanced the building projects advocated for by Mr Maguire without disclosing to anyone within government she was in a close personal relationship with Mr Maguire at the time that she took those steps,” Robertson said.
Robertson told the inquiry that evidence will be heard from other public officials who were influenced by what they believed to be the premier’s personal support for the two grants.
Robertson said, “a number of public officials would have acted differently” if they had known about the secret relationship.
Berejiklian has consistently said she never revealed her relationship with Maguire because she did not believe it was of a sufficient level to warrant a disclosure, but in his opening address Robertson noted Berejiklian had previously made a number of disclosures including, on one occasion, that two of her cousins were employed by a government department.
Berejiklian has consistently denied any wrongdoing, framing her mistake as a “personal one”, and insisting “I haven’t done anything wrong”.