The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
Simon Katich @ #2102 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 10:23 am
Colin Todd can be spectacular, but access is not exactly a doddle – unless you’re prepared to spend several days coming over the Haast range to Shipowners ridge. If coming from the Matukituki side, it means crossing the Bonar glacier (roped to avoid the hungry crevasses) from either Bevan Col* or French Ridge via the Quarterdeck** (unless you can persuade one of the local choppers to drop you in and extract). On a good day you can see both coasts from Colin Todd. From the summit of Aspiring you can see not only both coasts, but from Aoraki in the North to Mitre Peak in the South (…but only on a good day).
* I once spent 3 nights blizzed in a snow cave on Bevan Col – watching lightning strikes flash down the west face of Aspiring. We climbed the NW ridge when it cleared on day 4. I then discovered that the bloke I was climbing with was a type 1 diabetic whose technique was to load himself with sugar (I did wonder why he carried all those jelly beans & Mars bars…) and titrate his insulin with blood glucose levels en route. I have a picture of him on the summit, proudly displaying a BGL of 10.6 (high) – which, admittedly, is better than having a hypoglycaemic episode on the other end of the rope. Johnny was also the first person to paraglide from the summit of Aoraki. He died in a skiing avalanche a few years ago, which probably supports zoomster’s thesis of gambling irresponsibly…
** Back in the 70s, there used to be a spectacular hut on the Quarterdeck (look over the legendary South face of Aspiring) but it got too dangerous to maintain, so they built the new hut further down French Ridge. Nice hike, but few views. The old Aspiring Hut is in the W Matukituki valley is beautiful and a nice stroll – especially with kids.
Counsel Assisting at ICAC is drawing out from the senior public servant in charge of assessing grant applications that, regardless of the very short amount of time his department had, they had essentially described the one for the clay pigeon shooting centre as being substantially without merit.
I did a very crude calculation of infections, hospitalisations, ICU admission and deaths for four different covid scenarios; comparing an Unvaccinated population versus Vaccinated population using Lockdowns versus the same population living Open. There are four combinations.
* Unvaccinated Open
* Unvaccinated Lockdown
* Vaccinated Open
* Vaccinated Lockdown
I assumed that in Lockdown 1% of the population will be exposed but 100% will be exposed if they’re open. As for vaccinated or not:
* unvaccinated: 90% develop symptoms, of which 50% are hospitalised, of which 10% die
* vaccinated: 50% develop symptoms, of which 10% are hospitalised, of which 10% die
The numbers are fiction and you can obviously vary them, but I think the relationships are OK. For a population of 20,000,000 and using the assumed values, this is how the scenarios rank from worst to best:
* Unvaccinated Open: 4,500,000 ICU; 450,000 die
* Vaccinated Open: 100,000 ICU; 10,000 die
* Unvaccinated Lockdowns: 45,000 ICU; 4,500 die
* Vaccinated Lockdowns: 1,000 ICU; 100 die
On the face of it Australia is moving towards the “middle band” aka “living with covid”, where a vaccinated open population has a similar outcome as an unvaccinated and locked down population. As a nation we’ve decided it’s OK that “some of you will die”. We are in the process of accepting this risk and learning how to cope. Perhaps we’re acclimatising and moving on, UK style.
Simon Katich @ #2275 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 11:14 am
And that they got heaps more votes, too.
”
porotisays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 11:51 am
So says a Senator from the Liberal Party.
.
My view on net zero is that it’s a folly. It’s an absolute folly. It is nothing more than a catch cry and a slogan for the ruling class political elites
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/oct/18/australian-politics-live-barnaby-joyce-says-nationals-not-chained-to-a-script-on-net-zero#:~:text=My-,view,-on%20net%20zero
”
poroti
I am bit surprised that you did not post the nrws on protests by religious groups. Are they protesting because the “Apocalypse’ and “Rapture” will be delayed if world takes action Climate change?
From Guardian:
“The Australian religious community is responding to climate change with protests at MPs’ electorate offices today.
From the release:
Faith communities across Australia are holding vigils this morning outside the offices of Members of Parliament, including that of the Prime Minister. They are demanding that Australia take stronger climate policies to the United Nations climate Summit in Glasgow, especially a stronger target for the year 2030.
Those targeted are mostly Government MPs and include Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce and Envoy for the Great Barrier Reef, Warren Entsch.
Part of a global multi-faith day of action, similar protests are being held in hundreds of locations around the world, from New York to Nairobi, Lilongwe in Malawi to London, some with corporate targets such as BlackRock and others challenging deforestation.
Over 120 diverse faith communities across Australia were involved yesterday and hung banners on their places of worship or held events, calling on Scott Morrison to set much bolder climate targets for 2030. As the Government considers a target of net zero emissions by 2050, faith communities say that only an ambitious near-term goal would make that goal meaningful.
“
‘poroti says:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 10:26 am
Simon Katich
Might be worth the 2 weeks
.
.
The Kaikōura Coast Track is a must-do walk for every Kiwi
…’
—————————————-
Nice straight line along those cliffs!
Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) on Sunday said holding ex-Trump White House strategist Steve Bannon in criminal contempt would be “a way of getting people’s attention,” as the select committee probing the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol works to ramp up its investigation of the deadly riots.
“If the Justice Department prosecutes Steve Bannon, other witnesses will see they will face real consequences, including jail time and potentially stiff fines. That is a way of getting people’s attention,” Schiff told host Jim Acosta during an interview on “CNN Newsroom.”
“So, you know, Bannon’s an important witness in his own right, but — but it’s also important to send a message that the rule of law is back and people are going to need to pay attention,” Schiff, who sits on the select committee, added.
The select committee announced on Thursday that it would pursue criminal prosecution against Bannon after the ex-Trump White House strategist failed to appear for a scheduled deposition.
Bannon told the congressional panel last week that he would not comply with the subpoena. The former strategist is arguing that a yet-to-be-filed suit from former President Trump shows that the requested materials and testimony are protected by executive privilege.
The select committee will now convene on Tuesday evening to take up a criminal contempt report, which will outline steps the panel took to get Bannon to comply with the subpoena, and his refusal to do so.
Anyone else staring on in wonder at the critical thinkers of the press gallery concern themselves with whether the Nats will get on board with Morrison’s climate change vision, rather than asking whether Morrison himself is being genuine? Absolutely blows me away watching shows like Insiders where the journo all presume Morrison is acting in god faith, He hasn’t done that since he was elected to parliament.
meher babasays:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 12:16 pm
I think the “we love our Gladys” movement is largely a product of the blue rinse Liberal faithful, plus a few bargain-basement feminists in the media (who now appear to have been shamed into silence).
I cannot see how she would have much of a hope in Warringah: but then neither would any other Liberal. Moral high ground-occupying independents are notoriously difficult to unseat at either the Federal or State level.
And ICAC is going to be extremely difficult for her. From where I sit, she’s buried very deeply in merde, and her way out doesn’t look particularly clear. The conflict of interest issues that will be examined would appear to be extremely serious, and I don’t think blaming Maguire for everything is going to be anywhere near enough. As I have posted before, I believe that for a powerful politician to engage in a long-term clandestine relationship is not tenable in the modern era: especially with a colleague who also had a range of business interests.
I read that the lockdown in Tasmania has freed up some of your time so we get to read more of your comments wish you were able to contribute more.
I mostly agree with your assessment and Gladys may very well be finished politically, sometimes…well most of the time I cant help having a dig at many of the PB’s. Gladys wont run for Warringah but I believe the seat is still in play and different than others when an independent gets up, Warringah was about Abbott.
I would say though that I truly believe that Berejiklian was not involved in any sort of corruption, my read is that she is just the type of person that even if there was a grey area she would report it. Bad judgement in boyfriends sure, she has and will continue to pay for that decision. A big part of the “we love our Gladys” sentiment is a lonely plain-looking woman looking for comfort, that plus she has done a good job as premier during some very difficult times.
Has Morrison dealt the Nats out of the decision?
I smiled at this. I must be in a good mood today.
BK says:
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 12:43 pm
Counsel Assisting at ICAC is drawing out from the senior public servant in charge of assessing grant applications that, regardless of the very short amount of time his department had, they had essentially described the one for the clay pigeon shooting centre as being substantially without merit.
Corruption or no,it showed how loose and free the NSW liberals are with taxpayers money.
Re. today’s ICAC hearing. The judiciary, the legal profession generally have always had trouble adapting to technological change, finding the digital era particularly impertinent. Although Walker’s dome is somewhat interesting, I’m not sure it should feature so prominently, and it would assist if one could hear the proceeding.
rhwombat, the aim back in the day was a 3000m peak…. from 0m. But I am getting on, time is short, beer aty the Wanaka Speights pub too enticing; so and both starting from the beach and getting to the peak are no longer of interest. The hut would be a real adventure.
The Cascade saddle walk starts from the Aspiring hut (IIRC) and is almost vertical from there to the saddle. Hardest couple of hours I have ever walked and that includes up and over this ridge….
https://goo.gl/maps/KsRimHEvhXDHe1D48
check out the path on the right hand side of the lake. It started hailing then snowing as we made our way over the ridge and down that path (which wasnt a path when I did it). We set up camp at the lakes edge, collapsed exhausted and then woke to the tent half covered in snow but bathed in sun and a winter wonderland outside.
No snow leopards tho.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) or Intended
Scrott has promised exactly nothing.
.
.
Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) are non-binding national plans highlighting climate actions, including climate related targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions, policies and measures governments aim to implement in response to climate change and…..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationally_Determined_Contributions#:~:text=Nationally%20Determined%20Contributions%20(NDC)%20or,to%20climate%20change%20and%20as
But thanks rhw for the suggested ascents. yeah – I dont do glaciers. That is for serious hikers. But I do bring with me a good sleeping bag, an exped down mat…. and someone who knows how to make a good ice cave and likes to wake to bacon and eggs sizzling in the pan.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/10/14/morgan-53-47-to-labor-2/comment-page-45/#comment-3728288
The newish NSWP certainly doesn’t appear to be a feminasty
Given the UK case numbers are above the 7 day average, dragging that average up to over 40,000 cases a day and that the deaths are on the same trajectory with 140 a day AND the UK is vaccinated as it is (and has been for some time compared to not only Australia but also to NSW) why the differential in reported numbers between the UK and NSW (and Victoria and the ACT)?
Too good to be true me thinks
I would hope it is off the back of vaccinations – but there is a question when you look at the UK and elsewhere
China has unveiled a game-changing new “space nuke” that can evade missile defence systems and strike anywhere on the globe.
Without confirming the report, Beijing’s Global Times mouthpiece said on Sunday that the news had delivered a fresh blow to the United States’ “strategic superiority”, warning that its “military build-up” will continue around Taiwan and the South China Sea, and that it is “inevitable” China will take the “upper hand” in any conflict.
The Financial Times reported over the weekend that US intelligence officials had been left stunned by a Chinese rocket launch in August carrying a “nuclear-capable hypersonic missile”.
China officially announced the 77th and 79th launches of the Long March 2C rocket in July and August, but there was no announcement of a 78th launch. The Financial Times reports the 78th “secret launch” was to test the hypersonic missile.
The newspaper, citing several people familiar with the intelligence, said the rocket carried a “hypersonic glide vehicle” which “circled the globe” in “low-orbit space” before “cruising down towards its target”.
While the missile missed its target by nearly 40km, the sources told the Financial Times the test showed China had made “astounding progress on hypersonic weapons” and was “far more advanced than US officials realised”.
Hugo
I don’t know about “explode” but you’re getting ahead of yourself there. There are few countries with numbers down at the current level of NSW, and no particular reason to think that Australia is somehow more special than other countries.
Yep, the ‘ChiCommies’ are totally harmless and we should be their friends. 😆
Case numbers are relevant for anyone assessing their personal risk.
I have a family member who wants to wait the full 12 weeks for their second AZ dose, because that is what we’ve been told will maximise their protection. We’ve been monitoring local case numbers in case the risk profile changes and an earlier second dose makes more sense than waiting. (We’re in Brisbane, and had small outbreaks in surrounding suburbs.)
Even once fully vaccinated this sort of calculus will continue, though perhaps at a city or state level. It’s a bit like the vehicle traffic check I do before setting out. Traffic accidents and any hospitalisations they cause are important, but traffic density is not irrelevant to me as an individual. And traffic density is an important aspect of traffic management.
So, the Liberals now apparently have a climate change policy. I wonder how long it will take before Labor will #MehToo it?
Probably not long. This from Albo this morning (from the Guardian live blog) …
It’s a bit rich for Labor to be complaining about the Liberals having so many climate policies when Labor has adopted every single policy the Liberals have ever put forward, and now can’t even be bothered to have one of their own.
I also see Zali Steggall has put forward her climate change bill today. It is of course unlikely to be supported either by Labor or the Liberals, but it does demonstrate yet again that if you want genuine action on climate change, you need to put more independents in parliament.
It is the only way to be sure.
I didnt take it personally. There is no way peeps can be across what everyone posts so just thought I would let you know I do try to be aware of my bias against the LNP and, esp on matters like Covid, also try to post with objectivity.
P1
“Apparently” is the key word. If you look at all the things they have already ruled in or out, there is no real or practical pathway to whatever target they eventually settle on.
Why the media continue with this farce of pretending there is a real discussion going on is beyond me.
Of course going to Glasgow with a commitment to net 0 in 2050 begs the obvious and completely legitimate question.
“Whats the roadmap for getting there and about where will that put us in 2030 if we are on track? “
“ Yep, the ‘ChiCommies’ are totally harmless and we should be their friends. ”
Other than Zerlo, who exactly is making that argument?
As for hypersonic weapons, they have the quality of wunderwaffe about them. Here is why:
https://youtu.be/r-ASc5LSF3U
Besides which, Australia is within 5 years of deploying our own locally developed long range hypersonic missiles.
Bet you didn’t know that, did you c@t?
P1, if Steggall and a bunch more like her get elected and hold the balance of power, who do you think they would support into government and how would they then guarantee meaningful climate policies are created? And at what cost?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1598 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 1:39 pm
I don’t claim to know everything. But I know what I like. 🙂
DisplayName @ #1596 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 1:38 pm
I always like to reflect on how the ‘1 million trees’ Tony Abbott promised to plant, were going now? How many died in the drought? How many were burnt to a cinder in the bushfires? How many never even got planted, even after farmers took the money to plant them because the Coalition have never been great at follow up when it comes to holding their own to account?
Promises are easy to make, hard to make happen and then to make stick so that a quantifiable result occurs.
Guardian updates at 13:47
Bribing the Nationals to take action on AGW is one thing. I might not like it, but yeah ok, whatever. Bribing them so that the Coalition can pretend to be doing something, while doing nothing, is an entirely different matter.
If you’re going to spend money, at least spend it to get real change.
Simon Katich @ #2228 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 1:40 pm
Pretty much the same way Windsor and Oakshott did, who were actually conservative independents. And the point is that it then won’t matter who ends up in government, or how long they stay.
The mistake we all made last time was believing that Labor could/would stay the course. In hindsight, it is now clear that was never going to happen.
LR
Its more complex.
There are two open questions.
Q1. To what extent do we face a pure ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated’ scenario and to what extent is the pandemic also going to infect the vaccinated.
In the US where they have relied on mRNA vaccines it does aplear to be more a ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated’. In the UK, a lot more vaccinated people are getting sick.
There are a lot of people in the community who have been encouraged to believe that vaccination is a magic shield. Some are in for a rude awakening.
Q2. Unvaccinated children becoming the weak link. Today 15 percent of cases in Hunter NE were in children under 12.
I don’t buy into the ‘everyone will get it’ paradigm. Sadly some do and actually want this to happen. We need as high vaccination as possible. 90% (of adults) is good but not good enough. We also need very high rates in children.
PM told Liberals that Australia would offer net zero as a ‘nationally determined contribution’
Not sure…. when
Not sure…. how
Not sure… who pays.
Not sure…. about legislation
Not sure… if it will be LAW..
Not sure… about anything….as usual.
Just listening to Scotty blathering on in parliament and it seems to me there isn’t enough guffawing coming from the opposition.
Labor really does need to wind Scotty up.
He won’t like it.
They can’t let him make shit up on the floor without at least trying to drown most of it out with laughter.
Bribing the Nats is a waste of time because they won’t stay bought.
GG
That’s the core of it. They never stay bought. They’re rewarded for their stubbornness and always want more more more, they know it works.
The new senate president Slade Drake Brockman has clashed with Penny Wong already.
I thought these posts usually went to Senators with a history of longish service. Helps with understanding rules and procedures.
Drake-Brockman is a relative newcomer elected in 2016 I think.
Former staffer to Cormann whose mates in The Clan prob organised the numbers for him.
Edit
where di I get the Drake from? Drake Brockmans WA squatter royalty.
Sceptic at 2:03 pm
Of course they are not sure. NDC’s are non binding which means they have a yuge number of options to avoid doing anything. It is sooo hard to decide which empty promises to make .
CC: “In the US where they have relied on mRNA vaccines it does appear to be more a ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated’. In the UK, a lot more vaccinated people are getting sick.”
Where did you get this information from? I have read that a high proportion of the UK infections are among unvaccinated people, including children.
And that 71 per cent of US cases are among the fully vaccinated! (although I take that one with a grain of salt).
The coalition and their supporters will be under immense pressure over the next 2 months
Sometimes I think what this site really lacks is some sort of “like” feature. I read a whole range of posts from multiple posters (and despite my semi-regular disagreements with some resident Bludgers, I still think this site has one of the best comments section of any political blog going) that I broadly agree with, but I don’t necessarily have anything worthwhile to add, and personally I find that posts that just say “well said” or similar are just something to scroll past and don’t really add anything to the bigger picture. Likewise, I’m sometimes catching up after a few days away, and it seems silly to answer to things that are getting old, and which the original poster has probably moved on from.
William – not sure if this is something that is relatively easy to do, but I think that (and maybe also a feature to allow direct responses, so that people don’t have to double back through reams of other posts to get the context) would improve the utility of this site. There are many who lurk more than post (I’m about half/ half), and I think this would give a greater idea about how valid someone’s opinion might be. Just a thought, anyway.
“ I don’t claim to know everything. But I know what I like. ”
Yes. We all got the memo. American military adventurism that sticks it to uppity yellow people that somehow trigger you.
CC
I agree, it’s much more complex than multiplying a handful of numbers. (Epidemiological modelling could be an absorbing study.) But I think you can use those numbers as parameters that measure different management strategies, adjusting them to get a feel for what the different State strategies might mean.
I’d argue that Queensland is still aiming for zero deaths by severely restricting movement into the State. But it won’t be long before it joins NSW and Vic who have adopted the “some of you will die” strategy and are easing movement restrictions. (I’m not making a political comment on whether the decision was forced, voluntary or accidental.) I suspect the SOYWD strategy is based on keeping deaths down and the idea that there are only two ways to do this. Vaccines is one way and adjusting people’s behaviour (movement, masks, hygiene) is the other. In Australia movement quickly become a political bun fight. (In the USA masks quickly became that too.) So vaccines, and that alone, is what Australia is settling on as our way of managing the pandemic. (International quarantining may continue, though that too is now political.)
“Living with covid, some of you will die.”
Hugoaugogo @ #2243 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 2:29 pm
The whole Twitter/Instagram/Facebook/Social Media business model is to make the number of “likes” a post gets more important than whether it is true or not.
Sadly, the truth is often quite unpopular.
I don’t think this is a model we want to adopt.
Greensborough Growler @ #2239 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 1:11 pm
Yes. But I think it’s more blackmail than bribery.
[‘Christmas cracker – state borders open by December 17, bans to ease next month.
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has announced that the state’s borders will be fully open by December 17 provided double-dose vaccinations reach 80 per cent by that date.
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has announced the state’s borders would be thrown fully open by mid-December…
In addition, those wishing to enter Queensland will be allowed to do so from November 19, but they will be required to serve two weeks of home quarantine.
Palaszczuk said the reopening plan would be rolled out in “cautious and measured stages” once 70 and 80 per cent of eligible Queenslanders were double-dosed.
If the targets are met it will mean people from interstate hot spots such as NSW and Victoria will be able to cross the border in time for Christmas.
“It’s simple,” Palazsczuk said.
“The more of us who are vaccinated, the sooner we are safely reunited with friends and family interstate and overseas.”
If 70 per cent of Queenslanders are double-dosed, expected on November 19, it will mean anyone who has been in a declared domestic hotspot in the previous 14 days can travel into Queensland, provided:
They are fully vaccinated;
Arrive by air;
Have a negative COVID test in the previous 72 hours;
Undertake home quarantine for 14 days.
Direct international arrivals into Queensland will have to complete 14 days quarantine in Government-nominated facility.’]
https://inqld.com.au/news/2021/10/18/home-for-christmas-borders-fully-open-by-december-19-rollback-starts-next-month/
Hugoaugogo
Quoting a relevant point from the original post usually solves your second problem (and most posters have that habit). The idea of a like feature has an appeal, but again the original needs quoting.
meher baba @ #2235 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 1:25 pm
False. If that were the case, they’d be having a case fatality rate of around 2%. They’re on more like 0.35%. That says a solid majority of the infected are vaccinated.
Compare against the US, which is having a case fatality rate of nearly 1.5%. Because most of their infections are ocurring in people without protection from the virus.
None of which should be surprising. The UK is heavily vaccinated with AZ. AZ’s effectiveness against catching covid has always been low compared to mRNA vaccines, and particularly versus delta. It’s good at keeping you alive if/when you catch covid, but that’s a separate metric. Vaccine choice makes a difference.