Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly federal poll from Morgan, plus updates on looming state by-elections in New South Wales, which could potentially be forfeited by Labor.

The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.

Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:

• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.

• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.

• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,090 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 46 of 62
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  1. Someone is definitely not making it on to Richo’s xmas card list this year.
    .
    .
    Kevin Rudd
    @MrKRudd
    Murdoch’s so-called “Australian” gave that odious bottom-feeder Graham Richardson a platform for character assassination last week. So I decided to test their commitment to free speech by submitting some reflections of my own. You’ll be shocked to learn they didn’t publish it.

    https://twitter.com/MrKRudd/status/1449923116042387458?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1449923116042387458%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbxmastragics.com%2F2021%2F09%2F22%2Fearthquake%2Fcomment-page-10%2Fcomments

  3. poroti @ #2340 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 1:47 pm

    I wonder how much of the difference reflects their contrasting health systems ?

    They both had fairly comparable case fatality rates during the initial outbreak (as did prety much everywhere else in the developed world), so I’d say not very much. I don’t think anyone’s really moved the needle a great deal in terms of covid survivavility for the unvaccinated, and I don’t think any healthcare system copes when overwhelmed with a massive influx of covid patients.

  4. Hugoaugogo @ #2243 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 2:29 pm

    Sometimes I think what this site really lacks is some sort of “like” feature. … I think this would give a greater idea about how valid someone’s opinion might be.

    Alpha Zero likes this.
    Mundo thinks it’s Toast I tells ya
    Albo gave a speech about it.
    Nath had a picture of Bill Shorten dressed as Napoleon on the subject…

  6. Alpha Zero

    See? That’s the sort of thing I’d like to just “like” or put a laugh emoji against or something. But it’s not something I need to necessarily write out a post to. Oh well, too late now! 😉

  7. It’s taken all of half of one question time to reinforce that climate change once again will not take a single vote from the Libs to Labor at the next election.

    “Technology not taxes” wins it in a heartbeat and will satisfy the vast majority of voters. It’s a done deal.. Move on Labor, to things people actually care about please.

  8. Some thoughts on NSW state politics, given that Gladys is going to be a media focus for the next couple of weeks. From my perspective here in Sydney, there is more to the political strength of the Libs at state level than “Gladys is nice” and the memory, hopefully fading now, of Eddie Obied and company.

    In the 16 years of Bob Carr and his successors, there was only rather modest investment in new infrastructure in Sydney. The M7, Lane Cove tunnel, and the cross-city tunnel for road, and Chatswood-Epping for rail are the ones I can think of. We are now about 10.5 years into LNP rule, and there seems to be a lot more completed-West Connex, North Connex, light rail lines to Kingsford and Randwick, the metro out to Rouse Hill, the Newcastle light rail, the Parramatta light rail is nearly done, and the metro to Bankstown is well down the track. You could add the Leppington heavy rail line, the inner west light rail and the Opal card as LNP completions, but these started when Labor was in government, so I think credit can be shared for those.

    There are legitimate criticisms of these projects-road toll collections come most heavily from Labor electorates, the Randwick/Kingsford light rail was way over budget and over time, and to some extent light rail has been a replacement for heavy rail rather than new capacity. But ask any NSW voter which party builds more stuff, and the answer will surely be LNP.

    The other area where the LNP has done well, at state level, is managing perceptions of their environmental protection credentials. They have policies to encourage movement to electric vehicles, and to phase out coal-fired electricity generation, which have attracted cross-party support (including the Greens from memory), they won’t be outflanked from the left on this issue. In general, they’ve tried to present themselves as moderate and pragmatic in their messaging to the electorate, and that’s exactly how Perrottet will be promoted too I think. I still think the Federal election is 50/50, but I suspect we’ll see a Labor government in Canberra well before we see the next Labor government in Macquarie Street, regardless of what we learn about Gladys at ICAC.

  9. I appreciate that keeping things vagueish and not referring to specific people is an attempt to keep things low-key and from escalating, but it also has the disadvantageous effect of:
    – generalising over, or even stereotyping, a whole group of people,
    – making it impossible to check claims and whether they are in context.

  10. There was a like feature in the late Crikey era, and it went unused. I think the discussion moves on too quickly for it to have much practical use. It’s useful for threads underneath opinion pieces, because it helps the better responses rise to the surface. But comments on this site are overwhelmingly responding to other recent comments, rather than the substance of the post.

  11. William
    That’s because your posts are so close to perfect that there are few things to add to or take away from them without reducing their perfection.

    You make the life of a blog parasite difficult :P.

    (look guys, if I’m being this blatantly obsequious and self abasing, it should be obvious that it’s a joke, surely)

  12. Simon Katich says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 1:02 pm
    rhwombat, the aim back in the day was a 3000m peak…. from 0m. But I am getting on, time is short, beer aty the Wanaka Speights pub too enticing; so and both starting from the beach and getting to the peak are no longer of interest. The hut would be a real adventure.

    The Cascade saddle walk starts from the Aspiring hut (IIRC) and is almost vertical from there to the saddle. Hardest couple of hours I have ever walked and that includes up and over this ridge….

    I have traversed the Routeburn….40+ years ago. I recall jogging through the beech forest and up to the saddle. 3 fine days in a row in January. Unforgettable descent to the Milford Road.

  15. To add to PM…
    Anecdotally; I knew a lot of good people who ceased to be NSW ALP members during the darker years. They explained that their branches were very unpleasant places. The party lost most of them for good and I reckon, if it was widespread, would have been a great loss of talented human resources that takes a long time to recover from.

  19. Burgey @ #2257 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 3:00 pm

    It’s taken all of half of one question time to reinforce that climate change once again will not take a single vote from the Libs to Labor at the next election.

    “Technology not taxes” wins it in a heartbeat and will satisfy the vast majority of voters. It’s a done deal.. Move on Labor, to things people actually care about please.

    Despite what many Labor people here would have you believe … many of us whose votes are still up for grabs actually do care about climate change.

  20. Ah, the old Labor didn’t build anything trope.
    Finished the duplication of the Cronulla line begun by Wran.
    Duplicated the Alfords Point Bridge and the associated roadworks.
    Rebuit Sutherland Hospital.
    All of those projects significantly for Liberal voting areas.
    The Eastern Distributor.
    The M5 East-without an $8 each way toll that Gladys plonked on it because they knew no one would use the M8.
    The Cross City tunnel. Should not have had a toll.
    The Lane Cove Tunnel.
    Approved widening of M2 and in the process got rid of Greiner’s no competition millstone which allowed for the North Western rail project.
    Rebuit Blacktown Hospital.
    Widened Old Windsor Road even though there were zero votes in it. This in turn turbocharged growth in the North western corridor.
    Pretty sure Canterbury Hospital was substantially rebuilt as were some regional hospitals.
    Anything else. Hmm, let me see…
    Oh that’s right built and ran the Olympic Games facilities.
    If you want to know why spending slowed down in the later years than I think you need look no further than 2000. I suspect there wasn’t much money in the bank after that exercise to do much else.

  22. Plus popularity isn’t the same thing as validity. Just take a look anywhere that does allow likes. The two concepts don’t correlate.

  23. a r says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 3:16 pm

    Plus popularity isn’t the same thing as validity. Just take a look anywhere that does allow likes. The two concepts don’t correlate.
    ————————–
    *like*

  27. “Validity” was probably the wrong word for me to use. What I meant was that I would like a function where I can indicate to any number of posters that I like/ agree/ disagree/ dislike etc what they are saying (including when they are responding to something I’ve posted), without necessarily going to the effort of writing something out. Sometimes I just don’t have the time, or I might otherwise have nothing further to add. This is something I particularly found a month or so ago when I was the Bludger villain-of-the week a few times, and I wanted to engage with posters who were responding to mine, but sometimes to just to dial down the heat. Sometimes a simple “like” can say “I hear what you are saying, and I respect that you have responded in a civilised fashion, even if I don’t agree with you”. (Though maybe I’m reading too much into emojis!)

  29. ”
    No snow leopards tho.

    porotisays:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 1:04 pm
    PM told Liberals Australia would offer net zero as a ‘nationally determined contribution’

    Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) or Intended
    Scrott has promised exactly nothing.
    .
    .
    Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) are non-binding national plans highlighting climate actions, including climate related targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions, policies and measures governments aim to implement in response to climate change and…..
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationally_Determined_Contributions#:~:text=Nationally%20Determined%20Contributions%20(NDC)%20or,to%20climate%20change%20and%20as
    ”

    poroti
    There is a saying: You can fool some people all the time and all the people sometime.
    In Australia he is putting in practice the first part of the sentence. Now he wants to put in practice the second part of sentence i.e. he wants to fool all the people for sometime. As long as the people of the world are fooled till next federal election, he doesn’t care whether they are fooled after the election. He is using Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to fool the people of the world for a short time.

    There was cartoon on John Howard regarding above saying. In that cartoon When the a person said you cannot fool all the people all the time, JH replies “I can try”. 🙂

  30. Aqualung @ Monday, October 18, 2021 at 3:15 pm

    re: the Canterbury Hospital upgrade, you are correct. That decision was made by The Honourable
    Andrew Refshauge. Unfortunately Western Suburbs Hospital needed to make way and now is a community health centre, with the majority of the land sold off for a private retirement village.

    A shame that OC isn’t posting at present. They would have the lowdown.

  31. Technology vs taxes line doesn’t really work when Labor is talking about technology all the time with renewables and EV.
    The real line is Fossil fuels vs Renewable jobs.

  33. I agree with Hugo. For example, if we had a like feature, I could have just “liked” his 3:25pm post instead of making this pointless addition to the discussion.

  34. Ven
    I had a quick look for that cartoon, no luck , saw a few from Bill Leak. Can’t imagine his effing son coming up with ones like this.

  38. Asha –

    Yes, I agree with your post agreeing with me. I just wish that I didn’t have to write out this post to say so.

  39. As I recall, the late Crikey incarnation of PB that William refers to also had a dislike function. One of the more inflammatory long term contributors – one of the few in the class of permanently expelled – used to accumulate a heap of thumbs downs; though that wasn’t – to the best of my knowledge and belief – the cause of their relegation to the outer darkness.

  41. The NSW Lib govt weakened land clearing laws:
    https://npansw.org.au/campaigns-2/statewide-campaigns/land-clearing/
    and then there was the destruction of the Sydney Football stadium just before the last election, the stoush over our loved Powerhouse museum, replacing our solid old ferries with unreliable fast ferries( I travelled on the former for years but feel claustrophobic in the latter) – why not run them side by side as they do in Hong Kong? The Star ferry is a real treasure.
    The lack of building regulations re tower blocks…who brought in private inspectors? So much more.
    IMO , it was all about lining the pockets of developers, with faux consultations for the public who wanted to protect heritage buildings and old trees.

  43. Confessions @ #2071 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 9:51 am

    Does anyone know if residents of Sydney are able to travel into the ACT yet? I read that ACT people can travel to regional NSW, but it didn’t mention Sydneysiders going to Canberra.

    Only from certain postcodes in the regions surrounding the ACT, at present. I’m in Wagga and I can’t visit Canberra. A mate in relatively nearby Batlow, can.

  44. To be fair Quasar, it was Labor that brought in private certifiers although I don’t recall them being particularly enthusiastic about it. More a response to developer whines about approval times.

  46. Albo is looking great with the weight loss. However, I think there is room for improvement on the image front. He needs to target the male demographic a bit better.

    He should consider Mixed Martial Arts, training at least, or perhaps Judo might be a better fit. Something to show he can go Beast Mode.

  47. Aqualung says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 3:59 pm
    To be fair Quasar, it was Labor that brought in private certifiers although I don’t recall them being particularly enthusiastic about it. More a response to developer whines about approval times.

    To be fair.. it’s worth remembering most PCA’s learnt their dark art while working as Council inspectors… many a deadly deed buried in those council files. The corruption / incompetence is just more open now.

    Complex structures are generally beyond the competence of PCA’s to understand or inspect.
    Nor should they.. the builder builds & the engineer designs, inspects & certifies… they need to be more strict on the engineers inspections, which has to be paid for.

  48. Parramatta Moderate says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 3:00 pm

    In the 16 years of Bob Carr and his successors, there was only rather modest investment in new infrastructure in Sydney. The M7, Lane Cove tunnel, and the cross-city tunnel for road, and Chatswood-Epping for rail are the ones I can think of. We are now about 10.5 years into LNP rule, and there seems to be a lot more completed-West Connex, North Connex, light rail lines to Kingsford and Randwick, the metro out to Rouse Hill, the Newcastle light rail, the Parramatta light rail is nearly done, and the metro to Bankstown is well down the track.
    ———-
    While not being all that close to NSW politics, I wonder if this is partly about the NSW Liberals having caught the wave at the right time. Until around 2010 most State Governments did relatively little on public transport infrastructure in particular.

    Maybe it was because the debt and deficit bogey was scarier then. Maybe Federal support from the Rudd government helped to kick off more investment. Since then there have been major public transport projects in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth; not so sure about Adelaide. The Canberra light rail is another example though. In Melbourne, famously, the most recent extension of the metro rail network had been in 1929.

    Those projects ares usually a winner. When Dan Andrews announced the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) before the last Vic state election, talk back radio hosts commented that the response from callers was almost unanimously positive- and how very unusual that is. People like a sense of governments pursuing projects that are visionary and transformative – which the biggest of these projects are.

    That’s not to say that these are always the best projects based on all of the usual metrics. There’s legitimate debate for example about whether SRL is the optimal way for Victoria to invest tens of billions of dollars over the next 20-30 years. But it’s city shaping and people like the vision thing.

    I suspect that the Liberal Government might have been the beneficiary of this in NSW. The Zeitgeist made big spending on public infrastructure much more acceptable.

  49. Not only did Toohey say that the Clay Target grant didn’t stack up, but had he known Maguire was in a personal relationship with Berejyklian at the relevant time, red flags in abudance, evidencing the clear reason why Berejiklian should have revealed her clandestime affair, at least to those who were involved in both grants. By the way, I’ve been getting good reception of the hearing on the Sky News link.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/watch-live-icac-inquiry-into-former-new-south-wales-premier-gladys-berejiklian-begins/news-story/18c4417a858a9b25e62f02a03558c207

  50. Albo is looking great with the weight loss. However, I think there is room for improvement on the image front. He needs to target the male demographic a bit better.

    He should consider Mixed Martial Arts, training at least, or perhaps Judo might be a better fit. Something to show he can go Beast Mode.

    I’m sorry but I am just cracking up at the thought of ‘Swole Albo’ – just thought of Albanese as this roid beast with bruises on his face facing off against Morrison.

    I can see the debate:

    “Mr. Albanese and Labor just want to tax and tax…”
    “WHAT DID YOU FUCKING SAY???”
    “(gulp) Nothing. I was just offering a criticism of…”
    “THAT DOES IT. I’LL SHOW YOU!” (throws podium)
    (Morrison runs away)
    “YEAH, YOU’D BETTER RUN AWAY. FUCKING LITTLE PIN DICK.”

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