Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly federal poll from Morgan, plus updates on looming state by-elections in New South Wales, which could potentially be forfeited by Labor.

The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.

Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:

• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.

• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.

• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,090 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 47 of 62
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  1. Day 1 at ICAC summary from a non-lawyer: Decent public servant as a witness. Things are going to get very sticky for Gladys Berejiklian.

    The most impressive political feat for me is how Gladys Berejiklian has managed to convince sufficient members of the public of the following cognitive dissonance:

    a) she was not in a close personal relationship, and yet
    b) she was unlucky in love.

  2. max says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 4:11 pm

    Those projects ares usually a winner. When Dan Andrews announced the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) before the last Vic state election, talk back radio hosts commented that the response from callers was almost unanimously positive- and how very unusual that is. People like a sense of governments pursuing projects that are visionary and transformative – which the biggest of these projects are.
    ________________________
    Probably the best project in Melbourne’s history, after the initial radial network built in the 1880s. I hope it actually gets done.

  3. Goll:

    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 4:07 pm

    [‘Is Gladys out on bail?’]

    This is not a criminal proceeding yet. Hence bail is not a factor.

  6. Wat Tyler says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 4:17 pm

    I’m sorry but I am just cracking up at the thought of ‘Swole Albo’ – just thought of Albanese as this roid beast with bruises on his face facing off against Morrison.
    _________________
    He should avoid the roids. But he needs the average guy to think that not only might he be smarter than Morrison, he could kick his arse too.

    I think Albo could still win without this prescription of mine, but to really max out any swing he needs young males on board.

  7. Karvelas asks Littleproud about ideology over-riding the science of climate change, and he says, Oh well, there are different views among the scientists. Showing that either he’s afraid to go against the naysayers in his Party, or he’s one of them.

  8. Ballantyne et al , there is a ring of LGA s around ACT and that’s the extent of travel if your name is Ken Berhens. If Ken goes outside those areas they must isolate on return. We’ve had visitors from over the border this weekend. I’ll be back volunteering at Lifeline on Melbourne Cup day travelling from Yass way.

  9. Yes, he definitely needs to avoid coming across as a submissive nerd (one thing that kills left-of-centre leaders’ electability) and I understand your point. I am just enjoying the very comical image of him being an aggressive violent meathead.

  12. Wat Tyler says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 4:28 pm

    Why stop there? We could even have tag teams!

    Yes, Just the whole front bench is like a big wrestling stable! Love it!
    _____________
    In a Royal Rumble of PM’s. Chifley wins easily.

  13. Tanya Plibersek
    @tanya_plibersek
    ·
    3h
    Letting Barnaby Joyce decide climate policy is like letting anti-vaxxers decide health policy.

    Good one, Tanya.

    And Zali Steggall is wiping the floor with Angus Taylor (wish I could join her).

  16. Lurker says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 4:18 pm

    Those projects ares usually a winner. When Dan Andrews announced the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) before the last Vic state election, talk back radio hosts commented that the response from callers was almost unanimously positive- and how very unusual that is. People like a sense of governments pursuing projects that are visionary and transformative
    ________________________
    Probably the best project in Melbourne’s history, after the initial radial network built in the 1880s. I hope it actually gets done.

    —————
    I agree. I think current plans are to start tunnelling work on the Cheltenham-Box Hill leg in 2022 – ie before the next election, which increases the chance SRL will actually happen. That’s one of the reasons that the branch stacking/misappropriation of public funds scandals enabled by the State ALP drive me crazy. It’s like they’re falling over themselves to make Matthew Guy Premier – with the transport budget being diverted to a whole lot of new freeways, starting with the EW Link.

  17. Aqualung @ #1641 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 3:15 pm

    Ah, the old Labor didn’t build anything trope.
    Finished the duplication of the Cronulla line begun by Wran.
    Duplicated the Alfords Point Bridge and the associated roadworks.
    Rebuit Sutherland Hospital.
    All of those projects significantly for Liberal voting areas.
    The Eastern Distributor.
    The M5 East-without an $8 each way toll that Gladys plonked on it because they knew no one would use the M8.
    The Cross City tunnel. Should not have had a toll.
    The Lane Cove Tunnel.
    Approved widening of M2 and in the process got rid of Greiner’s no competition millstone which allowed for the North Western rail project.
    Rebuit Blacktown Hospital.
    Widened Old Windsor Road even though there were zero votes in it. This in turn turbocharged growth in the North western corridor.
    Pretty sure Canterbury Hospital was substantially rebuilt as were some regional hospitals.
    Anything else. Hmm, let me see…
    Oh that’s right built and ran the Olympic Games facilities.
    If you want to know why spending slowed down in the later years than I think you need look no further than 2000. I suspect there wasn’t much money in the bank after that exercise to do much else.

    Thumbs up, Aqualung.

    Thumbs down, Paramatta Moderate.

    To which I will add Gosford Hospital upgrade and North Connex, both projects advocated for by former federal Labor Member for Robertson, now Senator Deborah O’Neill. Pity she got chucked aside by the electorate so Low Energy Lucy Wicks and the Liberal Party could take all the credit.

    And we wouldn’t have had a toll on North Connex either!

  18. ‘Ballantyne says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 3:58 pm

    Confessions @ #2071 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 9:51 am

    Does anyone know if residents of Sydney are able to travel into the ACT yet? I read that ACT people can travel to regional NSW, but it didn’t mention Sydneysiders going to Canberra.

    Only from certain postcodes in the regions surrounding the ACT, at present. I’m in Wagga and I can’t visit Canberra. A mate in relatively nearby Batlow, can.’
    —————————-
    It all depends. The travel restrictions on people in Queanbeyan, for example, who work in the ACT in certain occupations have been lifted recently.

  19. Was it Iemma that wanted to sell the electricity assets?
    The proceeds were intended for the original nw metro proposal from memory.
    It was stated that NSW Labor didn’t invest in rail.
    Apart from the Epping to Chatswood line, the Olympic Park Spur and the Leppington line I guess not.
    There is more to a rail network than lines. There’s also trains.
    The Millennium trains were late but after the power system upgrade they have been reliable afaik.
    Labor also ordered and received the first 2 Waratah A sets. After the Millennium trains a proving process was put in place to ensure there were no issues when put into service. Gladys extended this proving period by a ridiculous amount of time for no other reason than politics. Just as her and bof Canned the inner west light rail project a couple of weeks after taking power. They then made a huge song and dance a month or so later claiming they were building the iwlr.
    The project was substantially finished. The track had been relaid and the overhead wiring poles were in place.
    All that was left was to string up the overhead wiring and install the el cheap prefab platforms.
    It took 3 years. Conveniently timed for the next election.

  21. CameronBaud7 (@CameronBaud7)

    Victoria Police has suspended a number of members over the vaccine mandate. They face possible dismissal within weeks

  22. Aqualung,
    You do know that once Cud Chewer comes back on and sees the word ‘trains’, you’ll be in for a treatise!?! 😆

  23. David Littleproud says:

    I think this is the chance to bury it once and for all. There is fatigue out there and people just really want us to get on with a resolution.

    … But they want us to be honest about how we achieve it. Zealots from both sides need to bugger off. We need to resolve this, get a pathway and look everyone in the eye about how we will do it. That’s the best way to achieve it and I respect the fact there are people that have views that are very passionate. That’s the great thing about a democracy.

  26. Today’s evidence suggests something between shoplifting and the fraud in allowing shoplifting and grand theft water rights and the fraud in allowing the theft of the water rights in whatever capacity.
    The Rum Corp are in stitches!
    I do hope those in Long Bay or Pentridge were afforded the same rights ?
    The country needs a Royal Commission with complete investigative powers and full rights to prosecute.

  28. C@tmomma @ #2322 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 4:48 pm

    Aqualung,
    You do know that once Cud Chewer comes back on and sees the word ‘trains’, you’ll be in for a treatise!?! 😆

    Looking forward to it. 🙂

    I’m just sick of hearing that the previous Labor government didn’t do anything for 16 years.
    How many National Parks and National Park extensions under Labor.
    I can recall 2 or 3 NP announcements in what 10 years. Matt Kean opens his mouth and he’s the environmental messiah. Let’s be very clear here.
    Matt Kean has voted for every regressive environmental legislation this government has put forward including the appalling land clearing legislation that sees NSW up there with Queensland for mass land clearing.
    Koala habitat wiped out. Feral horses destroying the fragile alpine environment.
    Did kean cross the floor when these were voted on?

  29. A contemporary viewpoint on another matter:

    The recently announced Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) security agreement is a positive step for the U.S. defense posture in the Indo-Pacific and will strengthen regional security against Chinese Communist Party ambitions. The pact’s sharing of nuclear submarine technology with Australia will enhance the Royal Australian Navy as a deterrent force in the Pacific and, combined with the growing vitality of the Quad (the U.S., Australia, Japan, and India), demonstrate to Beijing the commitment of the U.S.-led security architecture to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific.

    … French air and naval forces are already present in the region in France’s overseas territories in New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Thus, Paris is uniquely situated to play a significant role in maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific. To further demonstrate its commitment to the region, and its security architecture, the French Navy should dispatch a Mistral-class amphibious vessel to the South Pacific on a semi-permanent basis, along with the necessary support ships. Such an investment would demonstrate to partners and competitors alike that France is a major Pacific power and allow Paris to fully participate in Quad-led naval exercises and joint operations and eventually join the partnership.

    France’s highly capable naval forces could assist with freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, in close coordination with the U.S., Australian, Japanese, Indian, and British navies.

    … While the Marine Nationale submarine SNA Emeraude conducted operations in the area in February, a more regular French presence in these contested waters would be both a force multiplier for the allies and an important signal to Beijing of Paris’ resolve.

    … France has been a Pacific power for centuries. She has been an American ally since the Revolution. As we celebrate the 240th anniversary of the Battle of Yorktown, where French naval forces helped assure American independence, both Washington and Paris should focus on the numerous areas of historic and current agreement that underpin the bilateral relationship rather than temporary controversies.

    https://www.19fortyfive.com/2021/10/france-and-america-a-vital-alliance-to-ensure-an-open-and-free-indo-pacific/

  30. Remind me again, which prime minister said we could not afford to take action against climate change.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-18/petrol-prices-record-highs-sydney-melbourne-brisbane/100547210

    I bet Scomo is laughing at those poor suckers who bought Tesla Model 3s now.

    Also, if we actually had a 90 day oil reserve in Australia, like we are supposed to, how come the prices spike so much? Was that money we spent on a “strategic reserve” in USA a total waste?

  32. Aqualung,
    Anthony Albanese doesn’t get the credit he deserves as the former Infrastructure Minister either. The Pacific Highway up the east coast from Sydney to the border would still be a dangerous goat track if it wasn’t for him.

  33. Also, if we actually had a 90 day oil reserve in Australia, like we are supposed to, how come the prices spike so much? Was that money we spent on a “strategic reserve” in USA a total waste?

    It’s probably caught up in the shipping log jam like everything else at the moment.

  35. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 5:00 pm

    Aqualung,
    Anthony Albanese doesn’t get the credit he deserves as the former Infrastructure Minister either. The Pacific Highway up the east coast from Sydney to the border would still be a dangerous goat track if it wasn’t for him.
    __________
    Well you did say that Albo would be a disaster as Leader of the FPLP.

  36. Very clever of Parramatta Moderate to include the Newcastle Light Rail (all 2km of it) in that list of Sydney infrastructure improvements. Perhaps the closure of the Newcastle Heavy rail line could have also been included.

    Two of the great triumphs of this LNP state governments were omitted; the purchase of trains that didn’t fit in tunnels and the ferries that didn’t fit under bridges.

  39. C@tmomma @ #2332 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 5:00 pm

    Aqualung,
    Anthony Albanese doesn’t get the credit he deserves as the former Infrastructure Minister either. The Pacific Highway up the east coast from Sydney to the border would still be a dangerous goat track if it wasn’t for him.

    Yep. As I said I probably missed way more than I listed.
    My problem is Labor never stands up and defends themselves against false claims of inaction.
    And there was barely a whimper as perfectly serviceable infrastructure built by the Wran government was demolished and rebuilt for no other reason than to line the pockets of construction companies and developers.
    If the libs could have figured out how they could justify demolishing and rebuilding the Harbour Tunnel I’m sure they would have.

  41. There are sock puppet posters who infest this blog who put me in mind of Talleyrand’s description of the Bourbons:

    “They learned nothing and they forgot nothing”

  42. This is the press release about the “Strategic Petroleum Reserve”, probably being deleted as I type
    https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/australia-strengthens-fuel-security-new-us-arrangement

    This promise hasn’t aged well:
    “This landmark Australia-US Arrangement represents our joint commitment to maintaining fuel security and improving Australia’s resilience, as well as strengthening the close bonds between our two great nations,” Minister Taylor said.

    To all those fools who believed Scomo and Taylor and bought a large, heavy, gas-guzzler ute, ha-ha suckers!

  43. Cat

    “It’s probably caught up in the shipping log jam like everything else at the moment.”

    Precisely. And shipping rates never spike during international crises, do they? 😀

  44. Thanks, Aqualung.
    You are much more specific re the land clearing while I was relying on a dodgy memory.
    ALP have better policies but unfortunately don’t get the credit they deserve.

  45. max @ #2101 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 4:40 pm

    Lurker says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 4:18 pm

    Those projects ares usually a winner. When Dan Andrews announced the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) before the last Vic state election, talk back radio hosts commented that the response from callers was almost unanimously positive- and how very unusual that is. People like a sense of governments pursuing projects that are visionary and transformative
    ________________________
    Probably the best project in Melbourne’s history, after the initial radial network built in the 1880s. I hope it actually gets done.

    —————
    I agree. I think current plans are to start tunnelling work on the Cheltenham-Box Hill leg in 2022 – ie before the next election, which increases the chance SRL will actually happen. That’s one of the reasons that the branch stacking/misappropriation of public funds scandals enabled by the State ALP drive me crazy. It’s like they’re falling over themselves to make Matthew Guy Premier – with the transport budget being diverted to a whole lot of new freeways, starting with the EW Link.

    While not SRL our level crossing in Sunbury is about to be removed.
    Road will be taken under the rail.
    There are only 2 ways to get across town and the level crossing is one of them. The other is an old bridge.
    Work happening and planned to be completed late next year.
    If the Govt does change it will be too late to stop those works.

  48. Dave Sharma continually protests on Twitter that “something must be done about Global Warming” and praises the LNP. All for his local electorate , no doubt. But when the crunch comes, he votes against 2050.

  49. ‘Socrates says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 5:07 pm

    This is the press release about the “Strategic Petroleum Reserve…’
    ————————————–
    We must be the only country in the world that has its strategic petroleum reserve in another country. That that country is around 12,000 km away compounds the negligence, the incompetence and the insanity.
    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.

  50. All New South Welshpersons are the same to us.

    Some New South Welshpersons are dry, some New South Welshpersons are leaky
    Some New South Welshpersons come clean, other New South Welshpersons are sneaky
    …
    Some slip through your fingers and onto the floor

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