Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly federal poll from Morgan, plus updates on looming state by-elections in New South Wales, which could potentially be forfeited by Labor.

The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.

Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:

• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.

• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.

• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,090 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar

    I still can’t tell if Angus Taylor ever followed through and actually gave the USA $94 million to store fuel there for us even though we can’t use it.

    So if Taylor was diligent, we blew another $94 million. If Taylor was lazy or incompetent we save $94 million. We are stuck being profiteered by foreign owned oil companies either way.

    Maybe this was Taylor’s secret plan to promote EVs? Perhaps Angus does care after all?

  3. ‘Socrates says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 5:19 pm

    Boerwar

    I still can’t tell if Angus Taylor ever followed through and actually gave the USA $94 million to store fuel there for us even though we can’t use it.

    So if Taylor was diligent, we blew another $94 million. If Taylor was lazy or incompetent we save $94 million. We are stuck profiteering by foreign owned oil companies either way.’
    ——————————-
    In the good old days that would have been enough to sink any government.

  5. Labor is right to focus on Barnaby Joyce, and portray whatever climate policy the Coalition comes up with as Joyce’s plan.

    Polling shows the vast majority of voters dislike Joyce. Even if this sentiment is concentrated in the cities and suburbs, a vote for Morrison is a vote for Joyce’s climate change policy.

  8. C@t

    I doubt that the Newcastle light rail had much of an effect politically.

    Btw, its not a bad trip. Its too short is all.

  9. lexandra Smith
    @AlexSmithSMH
    NSW bureaucrat from Office of Sport asked if he would have done anything differently in assessing a $5.5m grant had he known Berejiklian was in a relationship, with Maguire. He replied: “Absolutely”. Says he can’t see how it is “anything but a conflict of interest”. #nswpol #icac

    “guilty as charge m’lord”

  10. Roy Orbison

    The ‘trains that don’t fit the tunnels’ issue is a good example of political beatup.

    The tunnels in question were widened to bring them up to the same loading gauge as the rest of the network. Far better to buy a wider train and mod the tunnels (a relatively simple bit of engineering) than have to buy two separate (non interoperable) fleets.

    Btw these same tunnels had been widened previously.

  11. NSW Labor should have lost in 2007.
    You only get 1 Peter Debnam in your lifetime when you’re clinging on by a fingernail.
    I think it would have been better if they had lost in 2007.
    Obeid might have been excised with less damage and NSW would have had a Campbell Newman in charge.

    Edit – fixed typos

  12. You know, there’s a lot of talk of the dangers of Labor being wedged on net-zero – and given past history, the anxiety is understandable – but, honestly, I think it is Morrison and the Liberals who are being wedged here. Scomo is increasingly looking totally ineffectual on this one, a slave to his buffoon of a deputy, whereas Albo has been seizing the initiative and putting increasing pressure on the government to act.

  14. Usman Khawaja 174 which means a selector will mention him to which Langer will respond by advocating the recall of Shaun Marsh.

  15. Porter throwing good money after bad…..

    Porter pursuing appeal over settled defamation case on ‘a matter of principle’..

    Given the defamation action is over, Justice John Middleton asked Mr O’Neill if the appeal was now a fight about costs – expected to amount to hundreds of thousands of dollars.

    “On one view, costs, but also a matter of principle,” Mr O’Neill said.

    The issue is “very important” for how “an application of this type should be made and heard in the future”, he said.

    Justice Middleton noted that “often matters of principle go away when sufficient money is paid over” and questioned whether it was a case that could go to mediation.

    That elicited some laughter from Mr O’Neill, who said, “I don’t hold out much hope, but I will seek instructions on that matter.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/porter-pursuing-appeal-over-settled-defamation-case-on-a-matter-of-principle-20211015-p5909n.html

  17. Glsdys says she was shocked – SHOCKED I tell you – and confused at the time she demanded Daryl resign for dodgy deals with developer spivs and Canterbury Council. Too shocked to remember just *what* she was thinking. Her memory escapes her completely. So sorry, Mr Counsel Assisting.

    She was just a poor girl who trusted a pitiless poltroon (the swine) with her heart, and – gulp – other parts of her anatomy, only to see her One Chance At True Love dashed against the jagged rocks of despair. She was a slave to her love for him. Just the person we need for the toughest job Australian politics: Premier of NSW!

    Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Queen Of The Bear Pit, Gladys Berejiklian, who genuinely seems to believe that unless it’s an actual crime, it can’t be corruption.

  18. Asha

    Agree. One Nation have already started campaigning against the Nats based on net zero. If Labor can’t win back any regional Qld seats, the next best thing would be for them to fall to One Nation. (Not sure if this is actually realistic, but PHON did come close in Hunter, albeit in NSW)

    Narrowcasting didn’t work for Labor in 2019 and it shouldn’t work for the Coalition either.

    Couple this with flack coming from the other side in inner city blue ribbon seats and it does look hard for Morrison to maintain or increase his slim majority.

    The real question will be how passionate the voters actually are about the substance of any climate policy.

  20. Thanks Aqualung for your comments. I was thinking about transport infrastructure in particular in my remarks. I did acknowledge in my original post that some projects completed under LNP were started by Labor-there would surely be projects completed under Carr which were started by the LNP too. And I did acknowledge the impact of tolls, and that some light rail is a replacement for heavy rail, so be fair! How the two periods of government compare on infrastructure builds for health and education would be interesting-I don’t know the answer. But I think it’s reasonable to think that the LNP has built major transport infrastructure projects at a faster rate than did Carr and his successors.

    I remember there was heated debate within the NSW ALP while in government about sale of power stations, to fund additional infrastructure builds, and the decision was to keep them in public ownership. In retrospect, was that a good decision? I don’t think so. I’m not necessarily a fan of privatisation-Ross Gittins has written some great articles on how the big winners from privatisation are often shareholders in the company which buys the assets, as state governments want to maximise the asset sale price by ensuring it’s highly profitable for the new owner. But why would the state want to keep ownership of stranded assets like coal-fired power stations, rather than build more infrastructure? That was an opportunity missed.

  21. Much as I would prefer a Labor majority, a Labor minority govt with independents would serve the country well and almost seems like the most likely outcome.

  23. Jeebus!! is it some weird NSW thang ?

    ‘Please know that I have heard your message.’

    Binchook ? Nah, from Shellbell’s link it woz…………..

    Iemma acknowledged as much when he said, “Now I know there are some tonight who have voted for the Labor Party with some reservation, and to them I say, ‘Please know that I have heard your message.’”

  25. That said, One Nation stealing votes from Nationals is good because the preference flow back to the Coalition isn’t 100%. It’s also good because it forces the Coalition to divert resources into defending their heartland.

  26. hazza4257 @ #2371 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 6:02 pm

    Much as I would prefer a Labor majority, a Labor minority govt with independents would serve the country well and almost seems like the most likely outcome.

    A minority Labor government would be the best possible outcome. Second best possible outcome would be a minority Liberal government. Then a majority Labor government. Worst outcome would be a majority Liberal government.

    The problem is that these are not the order of their likelihood.

  27. Also, to clarify: that statement about my position on minority government refers exclusively to One Nation (or any other far right outfit) holding the balance of power. Unlike others, I am not bothered by the Greens or any rational independents with good policies holding balance of power in the House.

  29. ‘Wat Tyler says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 6:08 pm

    I’d rather a Coalition majority government than a minority government that relies on One Nation for support but that’s just me.’
    —————————————-
    I’d rather a solid Labor majority government in both the House and the Senate. That would provide a platform to undo a decade of economic, social and environmental destruction by the Coalition.

  30. Governments with small majorities suck. The nutters have too much power. Minority governments suck even more, groups with polices that are not liked by a significant portion of the electorate have power that they should not have.

  31. Boerwar @ #2379 Monday, October 18th, 2021 – 6:14 pm

    I’d rather a solid Labor majority government in both the House and the Senate. That would provide a platform to undo a decade of economic, social and environmental destruction by the Coalition.

    You should perhaps read the article Shellbell posted about how well a similar scenario played out for the people of NSW.

  32. This is a rickety bridge but Iemma’s win in 2007 over red nuts Debnam begat Nathan Rees which begat David Ipp* QC’s appointment to ICAC which begat the Obeid et al purge and then begat the purge of the 10 Libs taking developer coin and while still not begatting, some of that remains preserved today.

    Here is Crikey’s comically snooty piece about Ipp’s appointment written by someone who was there when ICAC was in the doldrums.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2009/08/28/the-odd-icac-appointment-of-justice-david-ipp/

    *late family friend

  33. And if Labor wins we’ll get a government, that despite the window dressing, is largely indistinguishable from the previous Liberal government.

  34. Albury not coping well. By 10.30 am today, all testing sites were fully booked. Many people who can’t go back to work without a negative test will have to wait at least another day – and rumour has it the same thing will happen tomorrow.

    One death today.

  35. Wat Tyler

    Yes, I don’t want a minority government in conjunction with the Greens or PHON – just Centre Alliance, KAP, and non-aligned independents.

    I have no real grievance with the Greens except that Labor working with them is political suicide.

  36. And if Labor wins we’ll get a government, that despite the window dressing, is largely indistinguishable from the previous Liberal government.

    Except it won’t be a Liberal government. Hallelujah!

  37. Lurker

    The opposite is true. The window dressing makes them appear similar, but they would be vastly different once they could be elected and cement support.

  39. Labor has such great ammo with the Nats (and the Libs in fact) refusing to budge on a 2030 target.

    “74% reduction between 2030 and 2050 is just another example of too little, too late from this government.”

    “The refusal to budge on the 2030 target shows that Net Zero by 2050 is just another announcement with no substance to back it up.”

    Wheel out literally any climate scientist to state how inadequate the current 2030 target is.

  42. I know a lot of people in lower socio-economic circumstances who can greatly tell the difference between life under a Labor Government and that of a Coalition Government. Even when a Labor Government is trying to look “tough” or a Coalition Government is trying to look “generous”, the contrast is still very stark.

  45. As the old matketing saw would have it… “London, Paris and … Wagga Wagga”.

    Daryl’s shooting range makes sure Western NSW joins the Universe Of Ultimate Sport… it will draw the international Jet Set from far and wide to our sainted state.

  46. Wat Tyler says:
    Monday, October 18, 2021 at 6:35 pm

    I know a lot of people in lower socio-economic circumstances who can greatly tell the difference between life under a Labor Government and that of a Coalition Government. Even when a Labor Government is trying to look “tough” or a Coalition Government is trying to look “generous”, the contrast is still very stark.
    _______________
    No doubt there would be differences at the margins. For example Labor let the work for the dole scheme go voluntary I believe. But I don’t think the social security arrangements change that much between Labor and Liberal governments.

    Of course some things come down to political culture, more so than the party in power. Consider Same Sex Marriage. Turnbull managed to get it through, while the previous Labor government ran from it.

    I tend to think that Keating’s economic reforms were the same. A Liberal government would have enacted the same measures, at around a similar time-frame.

    We don’t have vast differences between the major parties on Medicare, Foreign Relations, the tax system, funding for health and education, etc etc.

    The real arguments are about cultural issues, and of course the never ending football game RED vs BLUE.

  48. Tony Windsor:
    ‘ The Nationals strategy is to hold the farmers at bay with support from NFF and others whilst they go after Labor in mining seats.
    Joyce remembers his big moment in life when as a Qld senator he “delivered Government to Howard”.
    The strategy is little different to Palmers ploy.’

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