The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 54-46, out from 53-47 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down two), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (up one). Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 46% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 37% and down one on disapproval to 46%. Morrison leads 48-34 as preferred prime minister, out marginally from 47-34. More to follow.
UPDATE: The poll also finds 35% saying Anthony Albanese and Labor would be better at “leading Australia’s response to the global climate change crisis”, 28% favouring Scott Morrison and the Coalition, and 21% saying both would be equal. It also find a continuation of a significant shift on what the federal government should prioritise out of energy prices, carbon emissions and preventing blackouts, which has now been asked four times going back to 2017. From July 2018 to February 2020 to the present, the response for carbon emissions has escalated from 24% to 43% to 47%, while energy prices has declined from 63% to 42% to 40%. Preventing blackouts has been steady, going from 9% to 11% to 10%. I am not able to access a sample size of the poll because I can’t get The Australian’s online printed edition to work, but the poll will have been conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.
UPDATE 2: The sample was 1515 – the methodology statement for the poll can be viewed here.
Professor Esterman
294 cases for NSW and 4 deaths, and 1461 cases for Victoria and 7 deaths. For Victoria, 5-day moving average is 1876 with Reff=1.01. For NSW, 5-day moving average=328 with Reff=1.10.
BK
“But it shouldn’t stop them trying, Cud. ”
The same could be argued for a bunch of policy areas. Labor should trust the voters. Have broad ranging and detailed policies that any sensible person would agree with if they actually read them
(yes that was dripping with sarcasm, especially given the prevailing view here and elsewhere that Labor should dumb things down and stay a small target).
I’m waiting to see what R(eff) Billington comes up with based on these figures. It must be getting close to 1.0
Might be worth noting that Newspoll had the ALP 2PP (and primary) in QLD 2020 election at 51.5 (37). 53.2 (39.6) was the result.
Queensland is harder to predict because the One Nation vote doesn’t always follow the trend. Labor gained state seats Hervey Bay and Nicklin from the One Nation vote trickling into the Labor column instead of reverting to the LNP as expected. Alot of elderly voters who previously voted One Nation supported Annastasia Palaszczuk tough border stance and felt threaten by Pauline Hanson’s open everything rhetoric.
Cud
He’s showing 0.91 after today’s case number.
Albo not cracking 50% among Labor voters Jeebus !
Cud Chewer @ #196 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 11:24 am
She is on a mission to out his hypocrisy. And it is personal. She wants him to face up to what he is propping up. She is his guide through his hall of mirrors.
Big A Adrian @ #191 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 10:47 am
Apologies. Hasty words leave out much. What I meant by “equal” in “either direction” is that the MoE curve is symmetric. That is -1% is as likely as +1%, but not as likely as +2%.
Hugoaugogo
Got it. With your intrinsic use of a safety factor you’d make a good engineer. 😉 Thanks for the reply.
BK
Yep, 0.9 (just updated).
Showing a steady rise (entirely predictable)
Granted that all the polls in 2019 had predicted a Labor victory indicates that something else occurred to prevent it. Polls are indicative only of a certain moment in time. I maintain it wasn’t a case of ‘the polls got it wrong’, but a last minute change of mind by enough voters to swing it Scrote’s way. Just imagine putting pen to ballot paper while conjuring images of ‘Bill Shorten PM’. My point exactly!
Shortie ran a bad campaign, especially working the Qld and NSW-Vic sides of the border simultaneously with opposing messages on coal. Also, the Greenie caravan to ‘Stop Adani’ in the coal electorates was utterly destructive. Shortie and his manboobs and total lack of charisma just couldn’t cut it. True, the ALP programme was quite radical in terms of wealth redistribution I’m proud to say, but it was Shortie’s inelectability wot lost it. Pure and simple.
SK
And the average voter watching 7 or 9 will never know what Penny is up to..
I understand why some are being cautious. Pessimism, to me, is a highly-infectious condition. Some are doing it to self-soothe (and think they’re providing views we’re not aware of by inflicting that upon us?), some are doing it based on historical trends. It’s rational and logical. I call my position cautious optimism. If anything, the shock of 2019 (which in hidsight should not have shocked at all) has made us more grounded and sceptical.
Newspoll is a different beast from 2019, and they’ve learned lessons from that pretty consistent failure that exposed weaknesses across the polling industry. Based on state election polling, Newspoll has been pretty decent, and, if anything, under-egged Labor support. Trends exist until such time as they don’t, as do historical norms.
But, obviously, lets not hint at that. My view over the last six months is Labor has been running a campaign that is deliberately less like a traditional Federal Labor campaign from opposition – but closer to Howard in 1996 and Dan A, Anna P and Mark M at the state level. We don’t know if it will work, until the election is over.
So the Nats have agreed to a have target, but there is no agreement on how that target will be achieved.
Sounds like zero progress.
L R
I’d prefer the bridge I’m standing on to have a higher safety margin!
jt1983
One thing I can say is that the odds of Labor winning are substantially better than the odds implied by the bookies (Labor 1.95, Lib 1.85)
The Libs are not going to even legislate 2050 net zero in the parliament, so its just meaningless words and rhetoric.
Not that I take the bookies terribly seriously – but yes.
Re Andrew Hasties seat of Canning
I live in his electorate and the change in demographics of the area south of Armadale has been massive. Thousands of new homes have been built, most by first home buyers with young families. What I hear at school pickups, the doctor and pharmacy and even the supermarket is all negative Morrison and negative the Libs. The other large population area in the electorate is Mandurah, which has a large cohort of retirees who are worried about their safety from covid and their health care. My biggest concern is the WA party who got a seat in the state election and are now presenting themselves as an alternative to Lib/Labor and don’t appear to be as rabid as Palmers party.
I want to live in an electorate that is both state and federal Labor and don’t want to move.
Latest friendlyjordies and Kangaroo Court of Australia.
https://youtu.be/O0KcHGNV3LE
https://youtu.be/R3GyOMS7aKQ
Cud Chewer @ #212 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 11:39 am
Well, she is the methodical type, not into stunts and props to get her face on the nightly news. Cant imagine her chucking a lump of coal at his head. She did refuse to shake his hand once – and got roundly criticised for it in the media. ALP pollies in opposition just arent able to grab electorally beneficial headlines like Abbott and co were. The media environment is against them. The pandemic kinda means the public dont want to see it. And the ALP dont seem to have the types that might get away with it.
My guess is Albanese thinks he has one short chance to sell himself to the electorate in this climate. During the campaign. Too early and Newscorp will have time to throw all their options at him till enough sticks. Personally, I reckon he should have stuck his head up starting at the last budget. But I am just a hack.
Re Canning
Also noted yesterday Hastie has taken up advertising on the sides of rubbish bins that line the highway around Byford and Armadale. They look like new posters and I hadn’t previously noticed them. Could he be worried or is the election coming sooner than we think.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga at 12:10 pm
They’ve gone the full ‘Yes Minister , describing it as……..
Cud Chewer @ #187 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 10:33 am
Yes. It’s barely even ‘unstated’, at this point.
“I maintain it wasn’t a case of ‘the polls got it wrong’, but a last minute change of mind by enough voters to swing it Scrote’s way. ”
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exit polls are the closest poll we have to what people actually vote in the election. And the yougov exit poll had labor 52-48, which was pretty much statistically insignificantly different to newspoll’s last poll (51.5-48.5). In fact all polls had been saying almost the same thing for months. So its pretty unlikely that after that long of virtually no changing of minds, such a big number suddenly changed their mind on the day. Its possible, but far less likely than the more obvious explanation that the polls were off.
jt1983
I’d really like to believe that (my inner engineer speaks), but do we know how it’s different? For a short time after the 2019 election there was a move by some polling outfits to create a polling standard, similar to what I think exists in the UK and possibly elsewhere. I’ve been distracted but I haven’t seen reference to any such thing in Aus. Magic may be entertaining but I wouldn’t use it to build a bridge. (To borrow from CC.)
Sounds appropriate. Almost a kind of advert for where to put the electorate material he sends to your household!
Mundo, I can’t help feeling that therapy might be a healthier outlet for you than an internet forum.
Federation, free markets and limited government, hey?
Where is the IPA?
And for how long has China been investing in its BRI initiative – and how much has been invested over those years?
Daryl Maguire’s tractor
@DarylTractor
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36m
Did Pork Barrel just throw Gladys under the bus? #ICAC
NSW vax rates will pass 85% in the next day or so, and I feel Chant’s confidence the state can realistically achieve 95% double dosed.
I spent the morning shopping in the city today, and of the numerous shops I went into only one (Dymocks) asked to see my vaccination certificate. I went into 5 shops inside QVB and none of them asked me to scan in or for my vax certificate.
It’s week 3 of opening up and already the vaccination status requirement has fallen by the wayside.
LR, for one thing, newspoll don’t do much (any?) phone polling any more, and are now getting their data from online recruitment.
My understanding is that phone polling was great when most people had landlines, but far less accurate when trying to do it on mobiles.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/net-zero-by-2050-target-is-not-going-to-be-legislated-barnaby-joyce/ar-AAPUm5W?ocid=msedgntp
This highlights precisely why a federal ICAC is essential.
The police are limited by evidence of criminality, an ICAC rightly doesn’t have such limitations.
The Guardian blog
Morrison won’t legislate for 2050 net zero, however he will make sure that the barrels of pork for Nationals electorates start rolling out well before the election.
for those interested in ALP’s view of what is happening in the senate, unfiltered by the media.
https://alp.org.au/senateselections?utm_campaign=211025_NOYS&utm_medium=email&utm_source=australianlaborparty
In regard the outcome of the last Federal election, the result was driven by Queensland and West Australia, the 2 mining States
Look at the seats delivered to the Coalition
And these were the States where Hanson, Palmer and Katter had their influence at the margins
What we have is what Biden did
Winning back the Blue States which went Red and delivered the Electoral College to Trump (but not the popular vote)
Morrison has conceded that Queensland is at the high water mark
This government governs with a majority of 1 on the floor of the house (noting the gaggle of Independents including from former safe Coalition seats in Sydney, Adelaide and regional Victoria)
Hugoaugogo
The other problem with the polling analysis in 2019 was that people were slow to change their reading of the polls to take into account the election campaign and pro-ALP people didn’t want to accept there were problems in the ALP campaign.
“The police are limited by evidence of criminality, an ICAC rightly doesn’t have such limitations.”
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I’m trying to remember which liberal politician it was I saw interviewed on ABC last week arguing that a federal ICAC need only investigate matters of criminality.
Big A Adrian @ #232 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 11:50 am
Makes sense. Thanks. Data quality is one of the unknowns for sure.
Big A Adrian @ #239 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 9:58 am
That’s why the Liberals don’t see a need for one.
Their idea of one just duplicates the police.
What would a bullsh*t policy be without a $13 million marketing campaign?
Canavan exposes Nationals’ net zero division
The Queensland senator was one of about nine Nationals MPs who spoke out against embracing the net-zero target
“What we have is what Biden did
Winning back the Blue States which went Red and delivered the Electoral College to Trump (but not the popular vote)”
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Perhaps. But there is an additional factor in the American system that makes it different – non-compulsory voting. From what I saw while following the US count last year, the big deciding factor in those particular states was not Trump voters switching back to the dems, but a massive increase in voter turnout amongst dems – particularly black urban voters.
William Bowe @ #1978 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 3:58 am
OC’s only ‘crime’ was to engage in a partisan campaign against Victorian authorities re the Covid response – and he was rightly taken to task on some occasions.
I found his contributions interesting nonetheless.
Glasgow is a decision on the fly.
They don’t even know who’s going.
The Guardian blog
It was always a given that Canavan would oppose the net zero target. That was already factored that in.
Interesting Newspoll, only for the fact it’s based on the corruption of the Libs, the broken ALP, the lazy Greens party and the utterly compromised MSM.
Rex. You are back from your secondment at Premier & Cabinet!
In the piece linked to by BK this morning (thank you BK), Alan Kohler gives Scott M some advice.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/10/25/coal-whaling-alan-kohler/
It’s a nice flourish to end his opinion piece, but I think Kohler gets it wrong. Morrison’s technology doesn’t replace coal, it’s meant to keep it going. (See what I did there?)
(I did like his characterisations of our ” ludicrously titled Environment Minister”.)