Two new bits of federal polling news:
• Roy Morgan’s fortnightly poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36.5% (down one), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 13.5% (up two) and One Nation 3.5% (up half). The state breakdowns have Labor leading in New South Wales with 55.5% of the two-party vote (up two on the last poll for a swing of about 7.5% compared with the 2019 election), in Victoria with 56.5% (up half a point for a swing of about 3.5%), in Western Australia with 55% (steady, a swing of about 10.5%) and in Tasmania from a very small sample with 58% (up five, a swing of about 2%). The Coalition leads with 51.5% in both Queensland (down three-and-a-half points, a swing to Labor of about 7%) and, anomalously, South Australia (up six, a swing to the Coalition of about 2%). The poll was conducted over the past two weeks from a sample of 2778.
• Essential Research has at last come good with its occasional dump of voting intention data, providing results from its last nine fortnightly surveys. If the 6% undecided are removed from the equation, and the results are rounded to the nearest half a point, the primary votes convert to Coalition 39.5%, Labor 38.5%, Greens 10.5% and One Nation 3%. If preference flows from 2019 are used, this comes out at around 52-48 in favour of Labor. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has Labor on 49% and 45%, without allocating the 6% undecided. These numbers are Labor’s strongest over the period covered by the release, which goes back to the start of July.
I’ll finally get around to adding all of this, together with this week’s Resolve Strategic poll, to the BludgerTrack aggregate later today. Also:
• The new voter identification bill was introduced to parliament yesterday and can be viewed here. The Guardian reports Centre Alliance Senator Stirling Griff is “generally supportive”, which could give the government the vote it needs to get it through the Senate together with those of the two One Nation Senators. The report also says Pauline Hanson is claiming credit for the measure, saying she had made it a condition for her party’s support for government legislation lowering the threshold for political campaigners to lodge financial statements conditional. Antony Green’s account of the issue is naturally definitive; Peter Brent also offers his thoughts at Inside Story.
• Julie Owens, who has held the seat of Parramatta for Labor since 2004, has announced she will retire at the election. Joanne Vella of the Parramatta Advertiser reports that Julia Finn, who holds the state seat of Granville, is not ruling out seeking the nomination, potentially setting up yet another state by-election. Durga Owen, criminal lawyer and Western Sydney University lecturer, has confirmed her intention to run.
• Vince Connelly, Liberal member for the soon-to-be-abolished seat of Stirling and unsuccessful preselection candidate for the safe seat of Moore, has confirmed his intention to run for the far less attractive prospect of Cowan, held for Labor by Anne Aly on a post-redistribution margin of 0.9%.
• The Victorian state redistribution has been finalised, and you can read all about it here. I haven’t had time to look at it in any depth, but you can join in a discussion about it on the Victorian Resolve Strategic poll thread that went up yesterday.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• Andrew Constance has announced he will not resign from his New South Wales state seat of Bega until November 26, which, as Antony Green notes, means the by-election for the seat is unlikely to be held this year, and certainly not on December 4, which has been mooted as the date for a “super Saturday” of by-elections coinciding with the state’s local government elections. Indeed, it does not seem that any of the members who have announced their imminent departures has actually formally resigned yet.
• A third contender has emerged for the Liberal preselection in Willoughby to succeed Gladys Berejiklian in Kellie Sloane, former host of the Today Show and Seven Sunrise. The other two contenders are Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney and Menzies Research Centre executive general manager Tim James, although a senior Liberal quoted by James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph describes the latter as “not a viable option” since he could potentially lose the seat.
Boerwar @ #1345 Sunday, October 31st, 2021 – 6:43 pm
The Costings were probably done on the back of an envelope.
The Costings were probably done on the back of an envelope?
Or on a postage stamp in crayon.
”
next.
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, October 31, 2021 at 4:36 pm
Victoriasays:
Sunday, October 31, 2021 at 3:48 pm
Ven
I believe vic police would have been the same had it been a vic Labor politician.
________________
Standard response from Vic Police.
Ven is losing the plot.
”
Taylor
I don’t know whether I am losing my plot because I m not a writer but it appears someone else is because I was not discussing about Vic Police. I was speculating what the reporting of HSun would have been if it was Labor Politician involved in that accident.
Lol – let’s be honest here. If it was a senior ALP minister, the HS would either be organising a protest outside their home or alleging it was really Dan A behind the wheel.
”
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, October 31, 2021 at 4:59 pm
Vic Police not breathtesting Dans wife puts Ven’s theory to bed.
Poor Ven just got a little bit too carried away with himself.
”
It is not me who got carried it is you. Look at my original post @ October 31, 2021 at 3:32 pm to which Victoria was replying. Instead of doing a lit bit of research you just assumed I was discussing about Vic Police. As I said earlier I was speculating about HSun reporting.
Observer. Appreciate your reminiscing about the characters in the Sheffield Shield back in the day
One for poroti
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTVj_ZSwxGE
“I saw him and put my hand on his shoulder”
Malcolm Turnbull anyone?
The reason the Pentecostal with the glass jaw subscribes to an alternate “religion” is because he does not fit the template of those who subscribe to religion
The Pentecostal with the glass jaw has no moral compass
Another test cricketer dies:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-31/australian-test-cricketer-peter-philpott-has-died-aged-86/100583944
Scomo doesn’t understand Respect. It includes not touching someone without their permission. It may also be part of good manners.
Hi Bludgers
I was watching ABC 7pm News tonight and sent the following complaint to ABC…
“I just heard Ashleigh Raper cover the ICAC proceedings in relation to Gladyds Berejiklian and Darryl Maguire. Introducing the coverage, Ms Raper said something like ‘…at the ICAC a molehill can rapidly become a mountain…’
Such language should cause serious concern, as it strongly implies ICAC blows small matters out of proportion, and therefore undermines public confidence in ICAC.
Ms Raper may not have intended to undermine ICAC, but, given the attempts of others in the media and public life to undermine ICAC, her comments were at best ill-advised.
I expect greater care by ABC journalists in relation to public institutions that act to preserve some sense of integrity in public life.”
If you’re in NSW and share my concern, I encourage you to lodge a complaint!
Does a back bencher have access to a State provided vehicle plus driver 24/7?
Or do they have to pay their own way around town?
It is also interesting that the likes of Wilson and Smith are so aggressive
The Dictator, Andrews, spiked my drink hence one glass put me over the limit
Wait
The Dictator, Andrews, had the police follow me and has had them tender a false reading
Wait
I am a Liberal and beyond the Law
And the ABC has lost credibility, unfortunately
They need funding to pay salaries
ICAC is concerned with issues of ethics, morality and doing the right thing.
Conflict of interest is at the heart of the issues facing Gladys.
She’s created a heap load of doubt given she did not excuse herself from involving herself in processes that are clearly designed to assist her lover.
Politicians of all colours are there to provide the grease to make things happen.
I’m not sure yet that she’s done anything illegal. But, from my perspective she’s not upholding professional standards or even reasonable standards that the Community expects of their elected representatives.
There may be precedent for it, but I’m not sure how a person without legal qualifications can adequately preform the role of Shadow Attorney. At over twice the legal limit, compounded by damage to property, Smith should also resign from parliament.
Sorry to hear about Peter Phillpot. I was a teacher at The King’s School for a few years in the mid eighties and found him a lovely bloke. He was housemaster of Waddy House for many years and he seemed well liked and respected by the students.
Greensborough Growler says:
Sunday, October 31, 2021 at 8:06 pm
I’m not sure yet that she’s done anything illegal. But, from my perspective she’s not upholding professional standards or even reasonable standards that the Community expects of their elected representatives.
__________
Exactly my point about Bill Shorten and his dodgy EBA’s that benefited the Companies, who gave a backhander to the Union, but left the members disadvantaged. The Australian people agreed with me.
Mavis,
Smith is not the first or last Polly that has been pinged for driving under the influence.
He’s resigned from the the Shadow portfolio which is appropriate.
I really don’t believe that it is necessary to resign from Parliament. He’s a young man and can hopefully use this as a lesson to become a better person.
nath,
Fuck right off!
lizzie, something for Mr Morrison for Christmas:
(among the many witticisms, he notes but for bad manners, there would be no wars; they are very bad manners)
Itza
What a character he was.
Ashleigh Raper, ABC Sydney political corespondent, is a Gladys shill.
One of the sisterhood, she is a shocker, always breathless in her praise for Gladys, totally shocked when St Glad when have been shown to be corrupt. She shouldn’t be on the national broadcaster, belongs on Sky News.
As for Tony Locke, he took a keen interest in my leg spinning abilities back in the day, wasn’t he convicted of ahem, something.
Greensborough Growler:
Sunday, October 31, 2021 at 8:19 pm
If it was just a case by being sprung by a random breath test I’d agree with you but he, according to the Guardian, ‘hit another vehicle on Power Street in Hawthorn before crashing into a fence.’ Objectively this takes his conduct to another level.
Also the damage to the car in the photo doesn’t look consistent with someone driving at the posted 40kph limit. Not even close.
Has anyone come forward with a bag of money for Tim Smith? Two cars (one a Jaguar), a fence and assorted road furniture plus the inevitable fines, court and legal costs. Ouch. If ever there was a case for a blind trust, this is it. Surely. Won’t someone please come to the rescue of the member for Kew?
Mavis,
Agree the matter is more serious and Smith will have to deal with the financial consequences of making good the damage he did.
But, it’s still an over the limit driving offence.
To exclude people from elected office because of alcohol atrocities is wowserism.
Roy
Has anyone come forward with a bag of money for Tim Smith?
————
Time for another very effective Liberal “blind trust”.
“Roy
Has anyone come forward with a bag of money for Tim Smith?”
I am sure Christian can let a fellow traveler know who to contact about that. 🙂
Everyone says Morrison is a marketing man. But in my view, he’s a salesman. Of the used car variety. He’s trying to sell his net zero plan to get accepted by the exclusive COP26 club but they’re not having a bar of it. They can sniff a dodgy salesman!
Same could be said of Pentecostals, selling a product that promises everyone and delivers nothing (at least not in this life). So they can never be held to account.
As for that liberal Melbourne twit Smith, his statement of “I thought I was ok to drive”, after blowing .13, shows an astonishing ignorance. Couple of beers and your close to .05. Point 13 and you’ve been chugging cheeky chardonnays all night.
Had Gladys been a Labor Premier, she would have been hounded day and night by the media from the time that the issues now under consideration by ICAC first became public. She’d have been forced to resign a year ago – no allowances for being supposedly an innocent duped by a secret partner who turned out to be a complete cad and bounder.
Loris
The most successful salesmen in my experience are charming, have good manners, and are sensitive to the reactions of their ‘target’.
Morrison is the opposite.
It’s not a matter of whether you THINK you’re okay to drive. It’s a matter of keeping track of how many standard drinks you’ve consumed within a certain time frame and KNOWING whether you should be driving. Or not.
Jeez, if anyone could afford an Uber it’s Tim Smith.
Poor judgement and decision-making on his behalf, imho, means he is unfit to be a Member of Parliament.
Looks like Morrison is about to totally embarrass Australia at COP26 with his Sinatra impression “I did it my way”.
Steve777 @ #1379 Sunday, October 31st, 2021 – 9:19 pm
Exactly. Kristina Keneally was routinely humiliated as NSW Premier simply for being the leader of the parliamentary party that contained Obeid, Macdonald and Tripodi. Even though she had done nothing wrong!
At Law School were were taught that it’s sometimes possible to be so pissed that you can’t judge how pissed you actually are. It’s a defence, or used to be.
A lot of that legalistic undergrowth, however, has since been cut through by the Strict Liability machete.
citizen @ #1382 Sunday, October 31st, 2021 – 9:21 pm
It’s just more slimy spin from Morrison. He’s not a national leader’s 2nd understudy. There is no ‘Common Weal’ as far as that man is concerned. Just Me, Myself and I.
So other countries can stick carbon tarrifs on Australia and we won’t complain. Great!
A blood alcohol reading of .131 really is pissed as a parrot. You can “achieve” that level by consuming about 10 standard drinks in 3 hours, so 7 cans of beer or a bottle and a half of red wine. No way that Smith could have thought that he was fit to drive.
Greensborough Growler:
Sunday, October 31, 2021 at 8:52 pm
[‘To exclude people from elected office because of alcohol atrocities is wowserism.’]
The only way he’d be excluded would be if he were to exclude himself. In other words, it’s his choice. I think he should go but
you take a different view.
Pollies hold a very privileged position. They should set appropriate standards for the hoi polloi.
In the bad old days, drink-driving was common place and not regarded as terribly bad. But times have changed. I just find it
incredibly poor form for the then Shadow Attorney to have got into his car so affected by alcohol that he crashed it and caused damage to property – and it could’ve been a lot worse.
After watching this I think Mick Fullers political carrier is finished before it’s even begun. Talk about being sloppy and not across your brief. All I can say is cluster***k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CxSBHmAylQ
And there there is this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKO1lxfzQA4
DisplayName @ #1386 Sunday, October 31st, 2021 – 9:26 pm
It may not happen!
https://reneweconomy.com.au/oecd-says-australia-is-2nd-dirtiest-economy-per-capita-tells-it-to-clean-up/
I was wondering why the Morrison government put so much effort into getting him into place at the OECD. Now we know.
We just finished watching the ABC series “Fires”.
Absolutely. Appalling. Rubbish.
It is hard to believe the ABC has taken the Australian story of the decade and turned it into such trash.
It was embarrassing to watch. My partner wanted to turn it off it was so bad. I insisted on watching to the end, so that I could comment. Now, I wish I had not.
Nigel No Friends 😆
.
Scott Morrison with world leaders at the G20 in Rome | 7NEWS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zAax2Qo5ao
This is a very perceptive analysis of facebook’s conversion to Meta:
Science will provide the solution – just as it invented the smart phone
Except
This government has attacked and decimated the University sector
And subscribes to God making the sun come up, makes the grass green and makes babies
The Pentecostal with the glass jaw is a fraud
As Biden and Macron can testify
And he is a liar
As Biden and Macron can testify
Along with all but the 30% rusted on who vote Liberal no matter what
And he worries about trolls from the sidelines of the G20
And sets back any progress on the identification of the source of this virus (and future virus) by once again playing the politics of China, replicating his hero Trump
The real problem now is that China is not Australia’s only “enemy”
Any respect Australia commanded Internationally has been trashed
Ask Biden, accused of lying
Ask Macron, accused of lying because there is an imminent election in France
Everything is the fault of someone else
The World hates us and the “Australian way”
The individual needs to be certified
BB, that law advice sounds a lot like the Dunning – Kruger Effect for drunks.
On other matters, I’m sure all the funding that the feds have stripped from research and the lack of support for tertiary workers during the pandemic are going to reap phenomenal technological benefits for us fighting climate change.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanhatesthis/this-is-the-gay-bathhouse-the-vaticans-cardinals-live-next-t
Will Scott Morrison complain if other countries start increasing GHG emissions? Breaking their commitments? I guess not, since that would be “telling other countries what to do”.
Half the point of “global warming” is in the first word.
C@t
You gotta admit – its fun watching Facebook shoot itself in the foot..