Federal election guide

Introducing the Poll Bludger’s guide to the (presumably) 2022 federal election.

The Poll Bludger’s guide to what I hope it is now safe to assume will be the 2022 federal election is open for business. There remain many gaps to fill owing to yet-to-be-declared candidates, and a Senate guide is still a work in progress (by which I mean I haven’t started it yet), but it remains a pretty substantial piece of work as is. If you find it stimulating or useful, you can show your appreciation by throwing some pennies into the collection jar, featured at the top of the site in the shape of the “become a supporter” button.

A bright and colourful front page serves as an entry point to the 151 individual electorate pages, each featuring a write-up based on detail I have accumulated since I first did one of these things way back in 2004, adding up to around 75,000 words all told. These are complemented by a range of charts and tables detailing past election results and demographic indicators, the latter compiled from 2016 census data to reflect the current boundaries (with acknowledgement due to Antony Green’s post-redistribution margin estimates), together with interactive maps showing booth results from the last election, which can be seen in detail by clicking on the booth icons.

Also featured is an overview page that includes, among other things, a summary of the national polling situation that I hope I remember to update nearer the big day. In the likely absence of any new polling this week, and for the sake of something substantial to hang this post off, I hereby repaste this section in full:

The most striking feature of state-level polling over the past term has been a seismic shift to Labor in Western Australia, where the party has not recorded a majority of the two-party vote at a federal election since 1987. This seems intuitively satisfying given the historical scale of the McGowan government’s win at the state election in March, winning 53 of 59 seats in the state’s lower house with a record-shattering two-party vote of 69.7%. At a bare minimum, Labor would seem a very strong chance of gaining the seat of Swan, which has a retiring Liberal member on a post-redistribution margin of 3.2%. Labor should also be at least competitive in Hasluck, with a Liberal margin of 5.9%, and Pearce, where the redistribution has cut the beleaguered Christian Porter’s margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.

In Victoria, the Coalition performed relatively well during the state’s first COVID-19 crisis in mid-2020, but declined sharply as a new outbreak took hold in New South Wales and spread across the border in mid-2021, as Labor appeared to gain traction with its claim that Scott Morrison had acted as the “Prime Minister of New South Wales”. However, the only highly marginal Liberal seat in Victoria is Chisholm in Melbourne’s inner east, a seat notable for its Chinese population. Other possibilities for Labor include neighbouring Higgins (margin 3.7%), an historically blue-ribbon seat with an increasingly green-left complexion; Casey on Melbourne’s eastern fringe (4.6%), where Labor will be boosted with the retirement of Liberal incumbent Tony Smith; and the eastern suburbs seat of Deakin (4.7%), an historically tough nut for Labor.

Conversely, the damage to the Coalition from the mid-2021 outbreak appeared relatively mild in New South Wales itself, to the extent that the Coalition is hopeful of gain to redress any losses elsewhere. One such calculation is that Labor owed its wins in Eden-Monaro in 2016 and 2019 to the now-departed Mike Kelly, and its threadbare winning margin in July 2020 to the difficulty governments typically face at by-elections. Another is that its loss of neighbouring Gilmore in 2019 reflected a problematic preselection process, and that it will now return to the fold. With the retirement of Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon, the Nationals could enjoy a further boost in Hunter (margin 3.0%), whose coal-mining communities savaged Labor in 2019. Labor also has tight margins in Macquarie on Sydney’s western fringe (0.2%), the Central Coast seat of Dobell (1.5%) and the western Sydney seat of Greenway (2.8%), whereas the Coalition’s most marginal seat is Reid in Sydney’s inner west on a margin of 3.2%.

Queensland has been the crucible of Australian federal elections over the past two decades, but the state’s remarkable result in 2019 left the Coalition with imposing margins in most of the state’s traditional marginal seats without quite shaking Labor loose in its strongholds. Labor’s polling in the state surged in the wake of the re-election of Annastacia Palszczuk’s state government in October 2020, though it subsequently moved back in line with the national trend. Labor’s highest hopes are reportedly for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, held by veteran Liberal National Party member Warren Entsch on a margin of 4.2%, which resisted the surge to the Coalition across regional Queensland in 2019. The most marginal LNP seat is Longman on Brisbane’s northern fringe, at 3.3%. Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson is the third most marginal at 4.6%.

The sole battlefield in South Australia is likely to be Boothby, a southern Adelaide seat in which long-held Labor hopes have never quite been realised. It will be vacated with the retirement of two-term Liberal member Nicolle Flint, who retained it in 2019 by 1.4%. Greater attention is likely to focus on Tasmania, where the three seats of the state’s centre and north have see-sawed over recent decades. Labor will naturally hope to gain Bass, with its Liberal margin of 0.4% and record of changing hands at eight of the last ten elections, and to a lesser extent neighbouring Braddon, which the Liberals gained in 2019 with a 3.1% margin. However, the Liberals hope to succeed in Lyons where they failed in 2019 after disendorsing their candidate mid-campaign. Labor seems likely to maintain its lock on the five territory seats, although the retirement of veteran Warren Snowdon suggests the Northern Territory seat of Lingiari is less secure than its 5.5% margin suggests.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,202 comments on “Federal election guide”

Comments Page 2 of 45
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  2. So now we have on the public record the pm of Australia calling the President’s of the USA and France liars

    And he wants to take Australia to War over China and One China

    The Pentecostal with the glass jaw is now being seen for exactly who and what he is

    And, unfortunately, he is taking the reputations of you and me as Australian citizens into his sewer

  3. Roy Orbison,
    mundo will be along soon to say it’s all part of Scotty’s cunning plan to see him ride triumphantly to a win at the election. 😆

  4. Chaser Interns
    @ChaserInterns

    Liberal Party member Tim Smith unable to vote in upcoming election as he won’t be able to produce a drivers license.

    😀

  5. FMD, who – except Coorey apparently – believes Morrison’s fib that he told Macron back in June that conventional subs were not suitable for Australia?

    From the Herald’s article today – President Macron:

    “ With the French deal negotiated with [former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull], Australia had definitely the option to produce in Australia conventional submarines and to get the submarines with a clear and reliable time.”

    “Now, you have 18 months before a report. Good luck.”

    If Morrison did tell Macron his intentions back in June then Macron would have told HIM that, based on France’s own experience no doubt, that there is a 30 year gap between intentions and realisations (and that for a country that already had a developed nuclear industry) when it comes to nuclear submarine programs.

    If Morrison did tell the French President back in. June of the looming nuclear submarine pivot, Macron would have told Morrison that the French were capable of filling that gap with the submarine program that we had contracted with the French for.

    He also would have no doubt told Morrison that France was ideally situated to use the relationship forged with the Attack Class contract to bridge the gap between desire and realisation for nuclear subs – having just commissioned the most modern designed nuclear boat which – as it turns out – best suits Australia’s desire for something smaller than the Virginia class and also has the same level of automation, sub systems and crewing arrangements as the Attack Class we just cancelled.

    F.M.D. One cant make up this shit. More absurd than the most absurd episode of “Yes, Minister”.

  8. Looking at Mr Bowes hard work on the Federal election, the one thing that stands out is that Labors polling trends disguise the reality, across the board, that it it going to be difficult , albeit not impossible, for Labor to win and construct a workable majority.
    Unless there is a consistent swing across the board, the Coalition stand a chance of canceling- out losses with a few steals of its own.
    Qld is a spanner in the works for Labor and NSW, inspite of ICAC, could be Morrison’s next miracle- ” how good is NSW”!!
    Boerwars@826am summed it up concisely, but are voters going to fall for “the Australian way” theme and forget it all on voting day?

  9. What else would you expect from a coalition govetnment that until recently had Pru Goward as a Minister?

    The NSW government has been accused of poorly targeting a chunk of the $500 million it is spending on school air-conditioning, with an analysis of winners and losers showing hotter western Sydney schools missed out while coastal schools with lower average temperatures benefited.

    While 600 schools with an average January temperature of more than 30 degrees automatically qualified, others had to apply. The government took three months to approve hundreds of applications made before the 2019 election, but three years to tell more than 400 schools in a post-election second application round that they missed out.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/school-air-con-winners-and-losers-raise-concerns-over-fairness-20211031-p594ob.html

    “Nice” people live in coastal suburbs because they can afford the house prices. So let’s give nice things to nice people whose children go to nice schools.

    That way there’ll be even more Nice People, the Coalition’s kind of people, living nice lifestyles.

  12. Gettysburg1863 @ #57 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 8:54 am

    Looking at Mr Bowes hard work on the Federal election, the one thing that stands out is that Labors polling trends disguise the reality, across the board, that it it going to be difficult , albeit not impossible, for Labor to win and construct a workable majority.
    Unless there is a consistent swing across the board, the Coalition stand a chance of canceling- out losses with a few steals of its own.
    Qld is a spanner in the works for Labor and NSW, inspite of ICAC, could be Morrison’s next miracle- ” how good is NSW”!!
    Boerwars@826am summed it up concisely, but are voters going to fall for “the Australian way” theme and forget it all on voting day?

    ‘but are voters going to fall for “the Australian way” theme and forget it all on voting day?’
    Yes.

  16. Mike Carlton
    @MikeCarlton01
    ·
    1m
    The spin from Smirko’s flacks is that Macron is playing to an election audience back home in France. This, of course, will be repeated by the usual stenographers in the Canberra press gallery. In fact, Macron is simply being candid and honest – qualities unknown to Morrison.

  18. Emergency services have been called to the Australian delegation at the G20 summit. It is understood the Prime Minister’s pants are on fire.

    After being identified as a liar by the French President, Scott Morrison may call George Pell and Christian Porter as character witnesses. Grace Tame and Brittany Higgins are unavailable.

  19. I don’t think Jim Chalmers is the next opposition leader after Albo anymore.
    Unfortunately gentle Jim doesn’t have the right stuff to take it up to Morrison.
    I really have know idea who has amongst the current front bench.
    Maybe Burke? But will he hang around….
    When the most corrupt, secretive, incompetent, do-nothing government in living memory is returned for a fourth term Labor is going to need more than a couple of old warhorses to look at what went wrong.

  20. Socrates @ #67 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 9:14 am

    Emergency services have been called to the Australian delegation at the G20 summit. It is understood the Prime Minister’s pants are on fire.

    After being identified as a liar by the French President, Scott Morrison may call George Pell and Christian Porter as character witnesses. Grace Tame and Brittany Higgins are unavailable.

    On the bright side, at least we can go on making fun of Scotty even if we can’t beat him.
    Ha Ha Mr Poopy pants!
    Take that!!!!

  24. Morrison truly believes that our universe was ‘created’ by a sky fairy 7,000 years ago, and that some time quite soon, he and his fellow believers are going to be transported up into the sky to eternal bliss while the rest of us are subjected to endless torment.

    Think about that! The man is incapable of rational, objective thought. His mind is cluttered with inane horseshit. In short, he is a fuckwit! He lacks the mental furniture to be able to analyse and logically process factual information.

    The seriously troubling situation is that the USA, with Trump, the UK, with Johnson, and Australia, with Morrison have all ended up with narcissistic mental pygmies being in charge at a time when clear, scientifically informed thought was/is critically necessary.

  25. Barnyard’s ‘move on’ comments are so at odds from what the LNP and most Tory Derivatives live by…why can’t those pesky Original Inhabitants move on from two centuries of death and marginalisation but all hell breaks loose if a woman of Middle Eastern Appearance even so much as mentions ‘our sacred ANZAC Day’ and that we might have another perspective on a battle fought for foreign interests and was essentially a failure.
    They don’t move on from perceived threats to ‘their scared beliefs’ yet indulge themselves in attempting to #cancel anything that promotes a different view to that which serves their purposes.
    Anyway, as Beetrooter says, it was only a commercial contract, one that was failing (no less) and (implies) such things were meant to be broken.

    PS : I thought the group photo of G20 leaders with Scrotty being the kid who looks at a different character was an attempt to reveal another character… the little Aussie larrakin.

  29. Yabba (Yamba, according to my predictive text) , I two Science Head Teachers in my last years as a teacher, both very committed Christians and it always bothered me that as scientists (supposedly) they should believe in the Scientific Method, yet when life’s big questions are presented to them they resort to faith in an invisible being.

  30. yabba @ #73 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 9:24 am

    Morrison truly believes that our universe was ‘created’ by a sky fairy 7,000 years ago, and that some time quite soon, he and his fellow believers are going to be transported up into the sky to eternal bliss while the rest of us are subjected to endless torment.

    Think about that! The man is incapable of rational, objective thought. His mind is cluttered with inane horseshit. In short, he is a fuckwit! He lacks the mental furniture to be able to analyse and logically process factual information.

    The seriously troubling situation is that the USA, with Trump, the UK, with Johnson, and Australia, with Morrison have all ended up with narcissistic mental pygmies being in charge at a time when clear, scientifically informed thought was/is critically necessary.

    ‘Morrison truly believes’
    I don’t think he does.
    I’ve formed the view that all these ‘people of faith’ types pretend.
    Deep down they all know they’re pretending to ‘believe’.
    There is no ‘speaking in tongues’. There is only someone consciously pretending to ‘speak in tongues’
    This blows the whole con sky high.

  31. Meanwhile Patti Newton has accepted state govt offer of state funeral for Bert.
    It will be held at St Patrick’s Cathedral.

  35. ABC reporting – Victoria has recorded 1,471 new COVID cases and four deaths

    There are now 21,959 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 309 people have died during the current Delta outbreak.

    The new cases were identified from 46,065 test results received yesterday.

    There were 14,413 doses of vaccine administered at state-run sites yesterday, and more vaccinations at GP clinics and other venues.

    For the first time in 18 months, international arrivals will not have to undergo two weeks of hotel quarantine upon their arrival in Melbourne.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-01/victoria-records-new-covid-cases-and-deaths/100584406

  36. mundo at 9:31 am
    It’s long been a quandry for me which is worse, the one who truly believes the happy clapper bullshit or the one who pretends to believe it ? Dead heat I suppose.

  37. @mundo 906am
    “On voting day”. I need to remind myself that “voting day” is not just one day any more. As evidenced in the US elections, many voters voted prior to the main day, and evidence is that voters will vote with greater focus than deciding how to vote as they pick up the pencil in the booth on Polling Day. This won’t matter to Coalition supporters, but I reckon it’s going to be an influence on the outcome here with other voters. Interesting to see how Bowes,Green and Bonham interpret the results.

  38. Ouch ! No diplomatic language from Macron about our Liar from the Shire.
    .
    .
    When asked whether he thought Morrison had lied to him by not revealing Australia’s secret dialogue with the UK and US over the acquisition of nuclear submarines, a dialogue that ultimately became the Aukus pact, Macron was direct in his response. “I don’t think, I know,” he said.

  39. On Tim Smith, I’d love to see how many DD offenders are clocked at 0.13 for their first offence? Can’t be many.

    Perhaps Tim could get some sobriety tips from Barnaby Joyce?

  40. “Comann running around supporting a price n Carbon underlines the hollowness of Liberals position on the issue, I find it difficult to see your problem.”

    Mathias Cormann comments on a encouraging a carbon-pricing scheme aren’t funny. I just find it sad.

    Because him and the then Tony Abbott led opposition has done such a hatchet job on the carbon tax. They have poison the waters so much neither party will likely bring it in again anytime soon even though its the most effective strategy on meeting the net zero targets by 2050 its been advised.

  42. Socrates @ #89 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 9:47 am

    On Tim Smith, I’d love to see how many DD offenders are clocked at 0.13 for their first offence? Can’t be many.

    I am also thinking he is very lucky. That fence was only about 1-2 metres from a childs bedroom from the reports I have seen. Could have easily been far far worse.

  43. Political Nightwatchman
    When it comes to action on the biggest shift in economic activity we have seen for centuries, there is nothing funny about the last 15 years.

  44. ”
    lizziesays:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 7:44 am


    @mariewalsh18
    ·
    8h
    Angela washes hand in Fountain, rather than talk to him; Boris avoids Eye Contact, everyone else, turns their Backs & Ignores Him….
    So Far..It’s going Well
    ”

    Angela Merkel, the most respected leader in Europe, finds dipping her hand in dirty water of a pond more interesting than engaging with the person who happens to be leader of another G20 country directly in front of about a Metre away. Extraordinary! 🙁

  45. C@tmomma @ #28 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 5:03 am

    Well observed by Ronni Salt:

    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt

    For those asking, the main reason Morrison is keeping his mask off is so he stands out for photo opportunities.

    These meetings are generally a sea of suits and male grey heads and he wants to maximise every gram of exposure.

    He keeps his mask off so he’s instantly recognisable.

    Maybe he needs to put it on so someone might mistakenly start talking to him.

  46. C@tmomma @ #28 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 5:03 am

    Well observed by Ronni Salt:

    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt

    For those asking, the main reason Morrison is keeping his mask off is so he stands out for photo opportunities.

    These meetings are generally a sea of suits and male grey heads and he wants to maximise every gram of exposure.

    He keeps his mask off so he’s instantly recognisable.

    Maybe he needs to put it on so someone might mistakenly start talking to him.

  48. Great stuff on the election guide. I’ve been looking for a summary like that for a while. Interesting the choice of teal for the LNP in Qld! Also, the Greens are light green, while the Nats are mid-green? 😀

    As for Morrison, the dodgy salesman has been caught out lying again. No compliant media overseas!

  49. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 10:01 am

    C@tmomma @ #28 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 5:03 am

    Well observed by Ronni Salt:
    __________________
    I said the same thing in the thread yesterday. It is poll related.

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