The Poll Bludger’s guide to what I hope it is now safe to assume will be the 2022 federal election is open for business. There remain many gaps to fill owing to yet-to-be-declared candidates, and a Senate guide is still a work in progress (by which I mean I haven’t started it yet), but it remains a pretty substantial piece of work as is. If you find it stimulating or useful, you can show your appreciation by throwing some pennies into the collection jar, featured at the top of the site in the shape of the “become a supporter” button.
A bright and colourful front page serves as an entry point to the 151 individual electorate pages, each featuring a write-up based on detail I have accumulated since I first did one of these things way back in 2004, adding up to around 75,000 words all told. These are complemented by a range of charts and tables detailing past election results and demographic indicators, the latter compiled from 2016 census data to reflect the current boundaries (with acknowledgement due to Antony Green’s post-redistribution margin estimates), together with interactive maps showing booth results from the last election, which can be seen in detail by clicking on the booth icons.
Also featured is an overview page that includes, among other things, a summary of the national polling situation that I hope I remember to update nearer the big day. In the likely absence of any new polling this week, and for the sake of something substantial to hang this post off, I hereby repaste this section in full:
The most striking feature of state-level polling over the past term has been a seismic shift to Labor in Western Australia, where the party has not recorded a majority of the two-party vote at a federal election since 1987. This seems intuitively satisfying given the historical scale of the McGowan government’s win at the state election in March, winning 53 of 59 seats in the state’s lower house with a record-shattering two-party vote of 69.7%. At a bare minimum, Labor would seem a very strong chance of gaining the seat of Swan, which has a retiring Liberal member on a post-redistribution margin of 3.2%. Labor should also be at least competitive in Hasluck, with a Liberal margin of 5.9%, and Pearce, where the redistribution has cut the beleaguered Christian Porter’s margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.
In Victoria, the Coalition performed relatively well during the state’s first COVID-19 crisis in mid-2020, but declined sharply as a new outbreak took hold in New South Wales and spread across the border in mid-2021, as Labor appeared to gain traction with its claim that Scott Morrison had acted as the “Prime Minister of New South Wales”. However, the only highly marginal Liberal seat in Victoria is Chisholm in Melbourne’s inner east, a seat notable for its Chinese population. Other possibilities for Labor include neighbouring Higgins (margin 3.7%), an historically blue-ribbon seat with an increasingly green-left complexion; Casey on Melbourne’s eastern fringe (4.6%), where Labor will be boosted with the retirement of Liberal incumbent Tony Smith; and the eastern suburbs seat of Deakin (4.7%), an historically tough nut for Labor.
Conversely, the damage to the Coalition from the mid-2021 outbreak appeared relatively mild in New South Wales itself, to the extent that the Coalition is hopeful of gain to redress any losses elsewhere. One such calculation is that Labor owed its wins in Eden-Monaro in 2016 and 2019 to the now-departed Mike Kelly, and its threadbare winning margin in July 2020 to the difficulty governments typically face at by-elections. Another is that its loss of neighbouring Gilmore in 2019 reflected a problematic preselection process, and that it will now return to the fold. With the retirement of Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon, the Nationals could enjoy a further boost in Hunter (margin 3.0%), whose coal-mining communities savaged Labor in 2019. Labor also has tight margins in Macquarie on Sydney’s western fringe (0.2%), the Central Coast seat of Dobell (1.5%) and the western Sydney seat of Greenway (2.8%), whereas the Coalition’s most marginal seat is Reid in Sydney’s inner west on a margin of 3.2%.
Queensland has been the crucible of Australian federal elections over the past two decades, but the state’s remarkable result in 2019 left the Coalition with imposing margins in most of the state’s traditional marginal seats without quite shaking Labor loose in its strongholds. Labor’s polling in the state surged in the wake of the re-election of Annastacia Palszczuk’s state government in October 2020, though it subsequently moved back in line with the national trend. Labor’s highest hopes are reportedly for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, held by veteran Liberal National Party member Warren Entsch on a margin of 4.2%, which resisted the surge to the Coalition across regional Queensland in 2019. The most marginal LNP seat is Longman on Brisbane’s northern fringe, at 3.3%. Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson is the third most marginal at 4.6%.
The sole battlefield in South Australia is likely to be Boothby, a southern Adelaide seat in which long-held Labor hopes have never quite been realised. It will be vacated with the retirement of two-term Liberal member Nicolle Flint, who retained it in 2019 by 1.4%. Greater attention is likely to focus on Tasmania, where the three seats of the state’s centre and north have see-sawed over recent decades. Labor will naturally hope to gain Bass, with its Liberal margin of 0.4% and record of changing hands at eight of the last ten elections, and to a lesser extent neighbouring Braddon, which the Liberals gained in 2019 with a 3.1% margin. However, the Liberals hope to succeed in Lyons where they failed in 2019 after disendorsing their candidate mid-campaign. Labor seems likely to maintain its lock on the five territory seats, although the retirement of veteran Warren Snowdon suggests the Northern Territory seat of Lingiari is less secure than its 5.5% margin suggests.
Macron laying it on the line.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1454922532839051270
Good work with the guide, William. Can’t wait to read it fully.
Just a couple of tiny comments on the section presented above: Macquarie is on the WESTERN fringe of Sydney, not the eastern. Also, I think you meant to say that Leichhardt resisted the surge AGAINST Labor in regional Queensland.
Keep up the good work!
Ven 1 at 9:59 am
Perhaps she is washing her hand after touching SfM ? Orrrr checking the water in case she has to jump into it to escape from him ?
Morrison as Pepe La Peu.
Delta says:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 10:08 am
Good work with the guide, William. Can’t wait to read it fully.
Just a couple of tiny comments on the section presented above: Macquarie is on the WESTERN fringe of Sydney, not the eastern.
________________
No one would describe Cooper as being North Eastern. Jaga Jaga yes. Cooper is just Northern.
Her Honour has come to life!
”
Gettysburg1863says:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 8:54 am
Looking at Mr Bowes hard work on the Federal election, the one thing that stands out is that Labors polling trends disguise the reality, across the board, that it it going to be difficult , albeit not impossible, for Labor to win and construct a workable majority.
Unless there is a consistent swing across the board, the Coalition stand a chance of canceling- out losses with a few steals of its own.
Qld is a spanner in the works for Labor and NSW, inspite of ICAC, could be Morrison’s next miracle- ” how good is NSW”!!
Boerwars@826am summed it up concisely, but are voters going to fall for “the Australian way” theme and forget it all on voting day?
”
2029 election loss has burnt a indelible mark on Laboris voters psycho.
GG
A ripper!
Greensborough Growler 10:10 am
Cartoon of the Week !
Morrison probably lied to Macron, we know that.
But at the moment he’s accusing Macron of exaggerating, or laying it on thick for a domestic French audience… which is basically Morrison calling Macron the liar, and a cynical, grubby one at that for bringing shabby local politics into it.
Whereas Morrison, if he did lie, did it only for the noblest of reasons: Australia’s national security.
Morrison does not know when to stop digging.
This will only get Macron even crankier.
The cartoon really capture “The Look” 🙂
AE
“FMD, who – except Coorey apparently – believes Morrison’s fib that he told Macron back in June that conventional subs were not suitable for Australia?”
Agreed. The Morrison claim is doubly implausible when we recall that France made a point of sending one of their latest nuclear subs to the Pacific for maneuvers with the Australian and US navies, in July 2021, AFTER the alleged Morrison warning to Macron in June.
https://sldinfo.com/2021/07/an-update-on-the-french-navy-july-2021/
And this is possibly the BEST of what Morrison’s personal photographer harvested from the photobombing effort.
The point re Cormann is obviously any mockery or critique from Laborite bludgers of Smoko and co pushing for him is just hypocrisy. In light of Labor’s own full support for his position, even with the support of using public defence assets to boost his global campaigning for a sinecure during a pandemic.
Same for mocking his apparent about face on carbon price, when it is evidently a fixed idiocy of Auspol bipartisanship of Lib & Lab to not even speak of it. When evidently most informed people now agree it’s the best policy.
The idiocy of Australian climate carbon emission policy is self-evidently bipartisan these days
Gladys makes a lot of assumptions about Darryl Maguire, in order to keep herself as a mushroom it seems.
Covid precautions means no glasses on bar table or did for a time.
Judging by her evidence this morning Berejiklian had blind trust in Maguire. And judging by the terse exchanges between Moses and Robertson in the October 2020 hearing, I’m confident that
over the weekend, the former did not provide advice to her re. today’s proceeding, in which Berejiklian is clutching at straws over her duty to report the corruption of Maguire to the ICAC – s.11
I hope you give yourself a little pat on the back for that load of Anti Labor bile, Quoll. Your pretzel logic is impressive, to say the least.
I think the most damming part of part of Macron’s comments was not that Morrison was a lair, but the observation that a firm contract for the delivery of conventional subs built in Australia has been replaced with a 18 month talk fest. “Good luck with that” was his parting comment.
Morrison has really stuffed this up. We now have two world leaders calling him a lair and no contract for the delivery of any submarines. All in attempt to create an election wedge.
The counter intuitive argument getting a good run from Gladys today.
Mavis @ #117 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 9:23 am
Except for the part where “I don’t need to know about that” isn’t something you say to someone you trust blindly, perhaps. 🙂
I have been worried that confidence in SA quickly getting to 90% is misplaced. In my travels I hear a surprising number of people vocal in their reluctance to be vaccinated. But the patriots in SA seem to think the state is better than the others – somehow immune from Covid skeptics and Vaccine recalcitrants. Worrying signs emerged last week when some suburbs were found to have as low as 40% first dose rates.
I have suggested the government needs to be ready with targeted vax mandates (beyond hospitals). And now some real pressure is being put on them….
https://indaily.com.au/news/2021/11/01/business-calls-for-more-mandatory-vaccinations/
mundo says:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 8:18 am
Can’t help wondering if Labor has some awesome knockout punch planned which I’ll be mightily impressed by, if not moved to tears, once it’s unleashed.
The political cosmos does not revolve around you, mundo. No one cares whether you’re moved or unmoved. Not a smidgin.
Ta thing is, voters have been saying for years and years that they resent argy-bargy politics. They think it’s childish and demeaning. They have no interest whatsoever in gesture politics, in gotcha games, in slogans and in the general smart-arsed stupidity that comprise the usual stunt-making.
Albo, to his credit, certainly understands that and has avoided empty campaigning. Morrison, of course, specialises in just that. The results are visible in the apparent 2PP polling and in the decline in the Lib PV. These measures suggest a swing is on. If there is a swing, Albo appears likely to win on numbers comparable to those that elected Bob Hawke. That would be an extraordinary result.
It would be historic. And it would reflect the good sense shown by Albo during his leadership.
We will see. Voters are reluctant to embrace change. The sceptic nerve is always twitchy when it comes to politics.
Gladys Berejiklian trying to characterise what she knew about Darryl Maguire as ‘possessing scant bits of information’ about his actions. That the ICAC would not be interested in knowing.
Yeah right.
Isn’t that how places like ICAC make their case? By piecing together ‘scant bits of information’ into whole cloth?
Mavis observes:
In effect she is saying that she was completely naive to Maguire’s machinations. She characterizing herself as a love-struck young gel who could not imagine that her boyfriend had been using his relationship with her to feather his own nest.
If so, such naivety would make her totally unfit to be Premier of NSW, probably one of the most difficult and unforgiving jobs in Australian politics.
It also leads to the obvious follow-up question: who ELSE was successfully pulling the wool over Gullible Gladys’s eyes?
frednk says:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 10:23 am
I think the most damming part of part of Macron’s comments was not that Morrison was a lair, but the observation that a firm contract for the delivery of conventional subs built in Australia has been replaced with a 18 month talk fest. “Good luck with that” was his parting comment.
Morrison has really stuffed this up. We now have two world leaders calling him a lair and no contract for the delivery of any submarines. All in attempt to create an election wedge.
Morrison has discredited himself. No-one did this to him. His fall – almost certainly, a fall is coming – is all his own work. He’s had every latitude and all the advantages of incumbency. And he has failed even on the simplest things…things like being truthful with the Presidents of the US and France, and being candid with the Australian people. He is a failure. A dismal failure. He cannot last long now.
poroti @ #111 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 10:19 am
Macron is probably also mightily pissed that Morrison wasn’t wearing a mask when he decided to get up close and personal.
God that Pentecostal, laying on of hands bs, gives me the screaming meemees!
Does he say a quick little prayer for the guy or girl when he does it!?! Ugh!
Josh Wilson
@Josh4Freo
Morrison never takes responsibility.
Always lashes out.
Makes stuff-up, then makes stuff up
Singing Blood at 10:32 am. Best post I have read on this site in ages.
Lynchpin @ #130 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 10:41 am
Yes. Not bad.
Quoll says:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 10:21 am
Good to see the Greens continue to campaign 24/7 against Labor. The Labor-hostile intentions and susceptibilities of the Greens are not lost on Labor’s true believers. We know you detest us. Be assured, we will give you absolutely nothing in return for your contempt. Nothing. You may as well not exist.
Quoll is quite clearly a Liberal troll whose only aim is to foment discord between the Labor/Greens fraternity.
Morrison also bungs on that phony bonhommie when he does his “bump elbows” trick.
He was described, from as far back as Uni days, as a “dickhead” by those who knew him.
https://www.facebook.com/115985586441317/posts/i-knew-pm-scott-morrison-at-uni-and-he-was-a-dickheadwe-figured-it-was-time-for-/472465050793367/
Lynchpin says:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 10:41 am
Singing Blood at 10:32 am. Best post I have read on this site in ages.
Cheers, Lynchpin. Such musing….they are the fruits of bludging.
SK
I share your concern. The stick may need to be produced by the SA government.
Singing Bloos @ #122 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 10:32 am
Not anymore!
You’ve convinced me!
Morrison is toast.
T.O.A.S.T.
I feel light…or something, like I’m floating on air.
Thank you Singing Bloos!!
I can’t wait for Scrotto’s concession speech!@$#@$#@!!!!
I wonder if he’ll cry like Malcolm F did…..so much to ponder.
Exiciting!#@$#@!!!
.
.
.
I tells ya!$$&#^#$!!!!!!$%#%#$@(&*^&^$% 🙂
Some interesting weekend chatter. One chap suggested SA should delay border opening by 2 weeks and instead have a 2 weeks of no internal restrictions (party time) then opening borders up (when internal restrictions are reintroduced).
There is one big sleeper in electoral politics at the moment. And that is the economy; and, in particular, real wages. Inflation is back. While prices are rising, wages have not adjusted and real household incomes are starting to decline. Declining spending is already perceptible in discretionary goods and services. This will play into employment and interest rates and must affect voter sentiment.
The pressure on real incomes will shift votes.
Lynchpin @ #129 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 10:41 am
Rubbish.
There was an AE post last week I think that was much better.
I’m finding Berejiklian’s self-righteousness insufferable.
Singing Bloos @ #138 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 10:54 am
‘This will play into employment and interest rates and must affect voter sentiment.’
Gee, do you think Scotty will use interest rates to beat Labor around the head with?
You know, ‘who do you trust’, and all that?
a r:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 10:26 am
[‘Except for the part where “I don’t need to know about that” isn’t something you say to someone you trust blindly, perhaps.’]
She thinks she’s covered that base by saying Maguire big-notes himself. Whether the ICAC accepts this explanation is moot.
On the one hand you have considered thoughts from Singing Bloos. Which resonate with other thoughtful people.
On the other hand you have cack-handed smarm from mundo. Which pisses people off on the regular.
You be the judge as to whose commentary is more worthwhile.
Simon Katich says:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 10:29 am
I have been worried that confidence in SA quickly getting to 90% is misplaced. In my travels I hear a surprising number of people vocal in their reluctance to be vaccinated. But the patriots in SA seem to think the state is better than the others – somehow immune from Covid skeptics and Vaccine recalcitrants. Worrying signs emerged last week when some suburbs were found to have as low as 40% first dose rates.
——————
I wouldn’t wish it on our SA neighbours, but there’s nothing like a scary COVID outbreak to get people piling into vaccination centres…. provided Scottie favours you with some of his vaccine hoard of course. Not sure if Steven Marshall is in his good books these days or not…
Mavis @ #143 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 10:58 am
The obvious question is, why didn’t she attempt to inform herself as to whether it was simply ‘big noting’ by Maguire, or if there was substance to the accusations made against him? Surely the NSW Premier has that ability?
BK @ #136 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 10:20 am
It is an interesting article. The business lobby saying; dont leave it up to all of us to haphazardly introduce our own mandates. No doubt partly because it is difficult for them to do so and business dont like governments making things ‘difficult’. yet I agree with them on this. It is a can of worms that could be avoided with government targeting mandates. A vax mandate on flavoured milk (especially iced coffee) would do the trick i reckon.
mundo works very, very hard every day to counteract and counterbalance any negative media and commentary that may come Scott Morrison’s way. You have to ask yourself, why?
cat,
With Mundo it’s the same shit, just a different day.
Some encouraging news on the Bubsy Front…
Today he has flown 3 metres from the table to my hand. To do so he had to gain altitude, steer around a vase, and navigate to where I am sitting.
OK, so he’s not exactly Charles Kingsford-Smith as yet, or even a solo-qualified Butcherbird. He still needs to brush up on his landings, for instance, as he fell into my palm head-first. But every journey has to start with a first step. Just ask the Wright brothers.
Good one, Bubsy! Keep it up!