The Poll Bludger’s guide to what I hope it is now safe to assume will be the 2022 federal election is open for business. There remain many gaps to fill owing to yet-to-be-declared candidates, and a Senate guide is still a work in progress (by which I mean I haven’t started it yet), but it remains a pretty substantial piece of work as is. If you find it stimulating or useful, you can show your appreciation by throwing some pennies into the collection jar, featured at the top of the site in the shape of the “become a supporter” button.
A bright and colourful front page serves as an entry point to the 151 individual electorate pages, each featuring a write-up based on detail I have accumulated since I first did one of these things way back in 2004, adding up to around 75,000 words all told. These are complemented by a range of charts and tables detailing past election results and demographic indicators, the latter compiled from 2016 census data to reflect the current boundaries (with acknowledgement due to Antony Green’s post-redistribution margin estimates), together with interactive maps showing booth results from the last election, which can be seen in detail by clicking on the booth icons.
Also featured is an overview page that includes, among other things, a summary of the national polling situation that I hope I remember to update nearer the big day. In the likely absence of any new polling this week, and for the sake of something substantial to hang this post off, I hereby repaste this section in full:
The most striking feature of state-level polling over the past term has been a seismic shift to Labor in Western Australia, where the party has not recorded a majority of the two-party vote at a federal election since 1987. This seems intuitively satisfying given the historical scale of the McGowan government’s win at the state election in March, winning 53 of 59 seats in the state’s lower house with a record-shattering two-party vote of 69.7%. At a bare minimum, Labor would seem a very strong chance of gaining the seat of Swan, which has a retiring Liberal member on a post-redistribution margin of 3.2%. Labor should also be at least competitive in Hasluck, with a Liberal margin of 5.9%, and Pearce, where the redistribution has cut the beleaguered Christian Porter’s margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.
In Victoria, the Coalition performed relatively well during the state’s first COVID-19 crisis in mid-2020, but declined sharply as a new outbreak took hold in New South Wales and spread across the border in mid-2021, as Labor appeared to gain traction with its claim that Scott Morrison had acted as the “Prime Minister of New South Wales”. However, the only highly marginal Liberal seat in Victoria is Chisholm in Melbourne’s inner east, a seat notable for its Chinese population. Other possibilities for Labor include neighbouring Higgins (margin 3.7%), an historically blue-ribbon seat with an increasingly green-left complexion; Casey on Melbourne’s eastern fringe (4.6%), where Labor will be boosted with the retirement of Liberal incumbent Tony Smith; and the eastern suburbs seat of Deakin (4.7%), an historically tough nut for Labor.
Conversely, the damage to the Coalition from the mid-2021 outbreak appeared relatively mild in New South Wales itself, to the extent that the Coalition is hopeful of gain to redress any losses elsewhere. One such calculation is that Labor owed its wins in Eden-Monaro in 2016 and 2019 to the now-departed Mike Kelly, and its threadbare winning margin in July 2020 to the difficulty governments typically face at by-elections. Another is that its loss of neighbouring Gilmore in 2019 reflected a problematic preselection process, and that it will now return to the fold. With the retirement of Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon, the Nationals could enjoy a further boost in Hunter (margin 3.0%), whose coal-mining communities savaged Labor in 2019. Labor also has tight margins in Macquarie on Sydney’s western fringe (0.2%), the Central Coast seat of Dobell (1.5%) and the western Sydney seat of Greenway (2.8%), whereas the Coalition’s most marginal seat is Reid in Sydney’s inner west on a margin of 3.2%.
Queensland has been the crucible of Australian federal elections over the past two decades, but the state’s remarkable result in 2019 left the Coalition with imposing margins in most of the state’s traditional marginal seats without quite shaking Labor loose in its strongholds. Labor’s polling in the state surged in the wake of the re-election of Annastacia Palszczuk’s state government in October 2020, though it subsequently moved back in line with the national trend. Labor’s highest hopes are reportedly for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, held by veteran Liberal National Party member Warren Entsch on a margin of 4.2%, which resisted the surge to the Coalition across regional Queensland in 2019. The most marginal LNP seat is Longman on Brisbane’s northern fringe, at 3.3%. Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson is the third most marginal at 4.6%.
The sole battlefield in South Australia is likely to be Boothby, a southern Adelaide seat in which long-held Labor hopes have never quite been realised. It will be vacated with the retirement of two-term Liberal member Nicolle Flint, who retained it in 2019 by 1.4%. Greater attention is likely to focus on Tasmania, where the three seats of the state’s centre and north have see-sawed over recent decades. Labor will naturally hope to gain Bass, with its Liberal margin of 0.4% and record of changing hands at eight of the last ten elections, and to a lesser extent neighbouring Braddon, which the Liberals gained in 2019 with a 3.1% margin. However, the Liberals hope to succeed in Lyons where they failed in 2019 after disendorsing their candidate mid-campaign. Labor seems likely to maintain its lock on the five territory seats, although the retirement of veteran Warren Snowdon suggests the Northern Territory seat of Lingiari is less secure than its 5.5% margin suggests.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 11:03 am
mundo works very, very hard every day to counteract and counterbalance any negative media and commentary that may come Scott Morrison’s way. You have to ask yourself, why?
______________
It’s clear that mundo is your next target to drive from the blog after your victories over OC, Pegasus and many others no doubt. Not to mention those who would have possibly contributed but were repelled before making a post.
Your vision of the blog, with just you, BW, GG, ‘Fess’ and a handful of cheerleaders is getting back on track.
max, plenty of vaccines here now. Supply is not an issue. Easier access and education in some communities will help. Some sticks and carrots look necessary. Free sausage sandwich if you vax at Bunnings? Vax mandates in hair salons? No entry to new Marvel movie (and Dune) without vax.
Gladys knows what her position was in relation to Mr Maguire.
I’ll just leave that one with y’all.
Bushfire Bill says:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 11:04 am
Some encouraging news on the Bubsy Front…
Good one, Bubsy! Keep it up!
____________
Your not fooling me BB. Release that bird from the captivity you have engineered. No doubt he is destined for the black market with you making a tidy sum while he is smuggled overseas in someones underpants.
Lurker @ #150 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 11:06 am
I don’t ‘counteract and counterbalance’
Flattery will get you nowhere.
As Singing Bloos pointed out earlier I am not the centre of the political cosmos.
Stop being silly, that’s a good girl.
Speak clearly when you talk to Fido.
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2295502-dogs-can-pick-out-individual-words-when-we-speak-to-them/#ixzz7Av7Z3kJU
.
Roberston is going into a private hearing to drop a bomb on Berejiklian methinks.
poroti @ #156 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 11:11 am
There is a little, very smart dog here that can definitely recognise certain words he wants to hear.
BK @ Monday, November 1, 2021 at 11:16 am
Possibly a recording of the conversation with Cruikshank, considering her legal representatives are able to remain in the room.
Scott Robertson finally caught Berejiklian out. It took a while. She is a slippery character but he finally caught her.
Pablo Viñales
@pablovinales
WATCH: The extraordinary moment French President Emmanuel Macron accuses Prime Minister Scott Morrison of lying to him. We approached President Macron on the sidelines of the G20.
@sbsnews #auspol
https://twitter.com/pablovinales/status/1454900301975089154?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1454900301975089154%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbxmastragics.com%2F2021%2F10%2F24%2Fhot-stuff%2Fcomment-page-4%2Fcomments
Griff @ #159 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 11:19 am
Or evidence Cruikshank has given to the ICAC in private previously.
Dogs understand words?
You mean like “Walk?”, “In the car!” and “Wherzzzat turkey?”
Or their name?
What about “Get the ball!”, or “Bring that stick!”, or “Good girl!”
Yeah sure. Dogs understand words. Pull the other one.
It could at least be said Arfur has coached her well.
“Don’t say yes or no, obfuscate and if in doubt, rely on ‘I can’t recall’”
Counsel to Gladys: So it’s possible you did say to Ms Cruikshank that the relationship was historical ?
Gladys: I can’t recall…
laughtong at 11:19 am
😆 Yes indeed, ‘selective hearing’ is quite a feature. That needs to be their next line on research .
mundo @ #155 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 11:11 am
You learn something every day. mundo doesn’t think he is ‘the centre of the political cosmos’. 😆
Oh, and nath, one thing I am not is a pusillanimous sycophant who sucks up to the Moderator of the blog. You should try it sometime, but I don’t think you will because you are an absolute addict when it comes to this blog. How many sock puppets are you up to now?
Now, continue to say what you like about me, I only care what the genuine say. Which obviously does not include you, mundo or Lars von Trier. And that’s the last thing I feel the need to say to any of you. Anything else you say about me is with that knowledge in mind and is on you.
Simon Katich @ #152 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 11:07 am
Do you have any figures on the vaccination rates in the APY Lands, SK?
It is truly extraordinary that one leader among friendly nations publicly and unambiguously calls another leader a liar. Anyone remember the last time it happened ?
Greensborough Growler @ #149 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 11:04 am
With nath polishing the turd.
Anyway, I’m over it. I gave mundo a go, I felt generous, I thought he might have felt some sense of reflection after his massive embarrassment when it came to the 2020 POTUS election predictions he made so confidently and monotonously. But no, it seems as though he loves the smell of his own verbal farts too much. So he’s gone now for good. Others can put up with his moronic moaning verbal ejaculations. I’m only interested in people you can learn something from or have an adult conversation with. I am honestly in too much pain to need a pain in the arse as well! 😆
Bushfire Bill:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 10:35 am
Agree. There’s little that’s naive about Berejiklian other than arguably matters of the heart. But getting to the top requires a good deal cunning and ruthlessness; the line therefore of being taken advantage of by an overbearing suitor is questionable.
I’d add that although it was only announced on October 1 that she
would be summonsed to appear before the ICAC, she must have known it was inevitable. Accordingly she’s had a year to prepare for these hearings and it’s obvious that her imperative has been to attempt to convince the ICAC that she was unaware of Maguire’s corrupt conduct thereby negativing the provisions s.11.
RE DOGs understanding words..
Time for a BATH.
Look up Youtube for proof!
”
Quollsays:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 10:21 am
The point re Cormann is obviously any mockery or critique from Laborite bludgers of Smoko and co pushing for him is just hypocrisy. In light of Labor’s own full support for his position, even with the support of using public defence assets to boost his global campaigning for a sinecure during a pandemic.
Same for mocking his apparent about face on carbon price, when it is evidently a fixed idiocy of Auspol bipartisanship of Lib & Lab to not even speak of it. When evidently most informed people now agree it’s the best policy.
The idiocy of Australian climate carbon emission policy is self-evidently bipartisan these days
”
You are really in the mould of Qanon. Like Qanon You are in your own world thinking that you have some Halo above your head and us ordinary mortals have to kneel before you for morsels of wisdom.
Shaking my head in disbelief. I am person who thinks Bob Brown party is taken over by far-left activists and should be met with same fate as Australian Communists.
Are you Sam Ratnam or working for her?
BK,
Here’s a Christmas Stocking filler you might want to keep an eye out for.
ACT will show us what happens at 90% fully vaxxed or even 95% before long. 95-97% is a level I’ve seen several experts say is desirable for the Delta version of covid-19 . ACT the leader of the pack.
.
The Australian Capital Territory has recorded five new cases overnight, and a whopping 92.6% of its over 12 population fully vaccinated.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/nov/01/australia-news-updates-live-covid-coronavirus-nsw-sydney-airport-border-reopen-scott-morrison#:~:text=cases%20overnight%2C%20and%20a-,whopping,-92.6%25%20of%20its
BK,
Sorry, forgot the attachment.
Yes GG, Australia is well served by its political cartoonists.
I always enjoy going to Old Parliament House when I’m in Canberra and seeing the display of cartoons there.
This is technology, paid for with our taxes:
Dan Ilic Input
@danilic
For the first time in years Australia has a pavilion at COP.
There’s a lonely coffee machine and flat screen TVs that don’t work —
Technology paid for by our taxes.
Positive Energy –
“The Australian Way”
Henry:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 11:22 am
[‘It could at least be said Arfur has coached her well.
“Don’t say yes or no, obfuscate and if in doubt, rely on ‘I can’t recall’”]
Coaching a witness is forbidden. But unless there’s a recording device embedded in, for example, a pillow, who’d ever know?
https://www.judicialcollege.vic.edu.au/eManuals/VCPM/45582.htm
The thing that stands out about Macron’s Morrison comment is that he went out of his way to basically say he has no respect for Morrison.
Wow, Gladys getting snarky now with Scott Robertson!
Wow, Gladys getting snarky now with Scott Robertson!
_____
And Her Honour was getting snarky with Gladys.
Barney,
Morrison also said Macron didn’t speak English. Macron clearly speaks it well enough to slaughter Scott in that interview.
That scientist who wanted to ‘prove’ that dogs can pick individual words from a sentence cannot ever have owned a dog. Some of them even learn to spell!!!
GG
Macron thought very carefully before uttering what will become oft-reported words.
C@tmomma:
Monday, November 1, 2021 at 11:46 am
[‘Wow, Gladys getting snarky now with Scott Robertson!’]
She may realise the game’s up, Mcoll’s repeated interjections being a reasonably good indication. She’s certainly uncomfortable with being examined.
When I worked in Corrections/ Health in NSW, at induction we were shown an hour video about the dangers of consorting/ intimate contact within the workplace … including many real life cases of shysters, manipulators, stalkers, criminal geniuses and ‘office romances’ gone wrong.
Shame Gladys wasn’t shown it..she may have known the line between right and wrong. Her responsibility level was light years above ours.
Greensborough Growler @ #182 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 11:51 am
Macron impresses me as speaking better English than, say, the acting the Prime Minister.
If Gladys is being honest about her lack of suspicions about McGuire’s activities and his poor character, she is far too naïve to be the leader of NSW.
Mavis @ #185 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 11:54 am
Mavis,
I’m waiting for the handwriting expert to comment on ‘Noted’. 🙂
lizzie @ #187 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 11:58 am
This point goes to the nub of her argument. She’s trying to make us believe that she was naive enough to have had no suspicions about Maguire but smart enough to be Premier.
lizzie @ #183 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 11:22 am
And they better watch their grammar around lizzie.
lizzie at 11:52 am
What they were looking at was whether dogs can recognise words in ‘continuous speech’ rather than just easy peasy single word commands.
Sit, sit, sit, no sausage for you today, sit, sit sit.
SK
😆
poroti
had you seen this one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTVj_ZSwxGE
Nope. I heard a radio segment where they were freaking about Adelaide’s north in general and a few postcodes in the Elizabeth/Salisbury area in particular. The north of the state was mentioned as not great but that didnt drill down into the indigenous pop. There has been focus on it for a few months tho. Some carrots etc. But perhaps the resources are thin?
Greensborough Growler @ #182 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 8:51 am
Morrison is as pig ignorant about the wider world outside his English speaking circle as nath.
Simon Katich
Lizzie’s dog.
poroti
They’re still wrong. My dogs understand “I’m going to get up now,” or, “What am I am going to give you for tea.”
OTOH they can be amazingly deaf when something in the garden is more interesting than coming inside.