The Poll Bludger’s guide to what I hope it is now safe to assume will be the 2022 federal election is open for business. There remain many gaps to fill owing to yet-to-be-declared candidates, and a Senate guide is still a work in progress (by which I mean I haven’t started it yet), but it remains a pretty substantial piece of work as is. If you find it stimulating or useful, you can show your appreciation by throwing some pennies into the collection jar, featured at the top of the site in the shape of the “become a supporter” button.
A bright and colourful front page serves as an entry point to the 151 individual electorate pages, each featuring a write-up based on detail I have accumulated since I first did one of these things way back in 2004, adding up to around 75,000 words all told. These are complemented by a range of charts and tables detailing past election results and demographic indicators, the latter compiled from 2016 census data to reflect the current boundaries (with acknowledgement due to Antony Green’s post-redistribution margin estimates), together with interactive maps showing booth results from the last election, which can be seen in detail by clicking on the booth icons.
Also featured is an overview page that includes, among other things, a summary of the national polling situation that I hope I remember to update nearer the big day. In the likely absence of any new polling this week, and for the sake of something substantial to hang this post off, I hereby repaste this section in full:
The most striking feature of state-level polling over the past term has been a seismic shift to Labor in Western Australia, where the party has not recorded a majority of the two-party vote at a federal election since 1987. This seems intuitively satisfying given the historical scale of the McGowan government’s win at the state election in March, winning 53 of 59 seats in the state’s lower house with a record-shattering two-party vote of 69.7%. At a bare minimum, Labor would seem a very strong chance of gaining the seat of Swan, which has a retiring Liberal member on a post-redistribution margin of 3.2%. Labor should also be at least competitive in Hasluck, with a Liberal margin of 5.9%, and Pearce, where the redistribution has cut the beleaguered Christian Porter’s margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.
In Victoria, the Coalition performed relatively well during the state’s first COVID-19 crisis in mid-2020, but declined sharply as a new outbreak took hold in New South Wales and spread across the border in mid-2021, as Labor appeared to gain traction with its claim that Scott Morrison had acted as the “Prime Minister of New South Wales”. However, the only highly marginal Liberal seat in Victoria is Chisholm in Melbourne’s inner east, a seat notable for its Chinese population. Other possibilities for Labor include neighbouring Higgins (margin 3.7%), an historically blue-ribbon seat with an increasingly green-left complexion; Casey on Melbourne’s eastern fringe (4.6%), where Labor will be boosted with the retirement of Liberal incumbent Tony Smith; and the eastern suburbs seat of Deakin (4.7%), an historically tough nut for Labor.
Conversely, the damage to the Coalition from the mid-2021 outbreak appeared relatively mild in New South Wales itself, to the extent that the Coalition is hopeful of gain to redress any losses elsewhere. One such calculation is that Labor owed its wins in Eden-Monaro in 2016 and 2019 to the now-departed Mike Kelly, and its threadbare winning margin in July 2020 to the difficulty governments typically face at by-elections. Another is that its loss of neighbouring Gilmore in 2019 reflected a problematic preselection process, and that it will now return to the fold. With the retirement of Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon, the Nationals could enjoy a further boost in Hunter (margin 3.0%), whose coal-mining communities savaged Labor in 2019. Labor also has tight margins in Macquarie on Sydney’s western fringe (0.2%), the Central Coast seat of Dobell (1.5%) and the western Sydney seat of Greenway (2.8%), whereas the Coalition’s most marginal seat is Reid in Sydney’s inner west on a margin of 3.2%.
Queensland has been the crucible of Australian federal elections over the past two decades, but the state’s remarkable result in 2019 left the Coalition with imposing margins in most of the state’s traditional marginal seats without quite shaking Labor loose in its strongholds. Labor’s polling in the state surged in the wake of the re-election of Annastacia Palszczuk’s state government in October 2020, though it subsequently moved back in line with the national trend. Labor’s highest hopes are reportedly for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, held by veteran Liberal National Party member Warren Entsch on a margin of 4.2%, which resisted the surge to the Coalition across regional Queensland in 2019. The most marginal LNP seat is Longman on Brisbane’s northern fringe, at 3.3%. Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson is the third most marginal at 4.6%.
The sole battlefield in South Australia is likely to be Boothby, a southern Adelaide seat in which long-held Labor hopes have never quite been realised. It will be vacated with the retirement of two-term Liberal member Nicolle Flint, who retained it in 2019 by 1.4%. Greater attention is likely to focus on Tasmania, where the three seats of the state’s centre and north have see-sawed over recent decades. Labor will naturally hope to gain Bass, with its Liberal margin of 0.4% and record of changing hands at eight of the last ten elections, and to a lesser extent neighbouring Braddon, which the Liberals gained in 2019 with a 3.1% margin. However, the Liberals hope to succeed in Lyons where they failed in 2019 after disendorsing their candidate mid-campaign. Labor seems likely to maintain its lock on the five territory seats, although the retirement of veteran Warren Snowdon suggests the Northern Territory seat of Lingiari is less secure than its 5.5% margin suggests.
Sure, if Tim Smith was just over the limit, he might have been able to ride it out. But be wasn’t. He was nearly three times over.
Make no mistake, Smith has come out of this an extremely lucky man. Worst case scenario, he steps down at the next election and moves into a cushy private sector gig. Boo hoo. If he was driving a bit faster, he might be looking at twenty years right now, and we would all be having a very different conversation.
Bystander asked last night:
What impact do the new ID voting laws have on postal voting?
Anybody know?
Specifically, postals.
Ven
shill
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shill
The voter ID law has no impact on postal voting.
AE
In fact the UK really is the odd one out, isn’t it?
The UK will have trouble staying relevant in Europe, let alone the Pacific.. last time I looked they didn’t own any of the car manufacturers operating in the UK.
Such is the ‘we love you/hate you’ attitude by some towards politicians that the trip by WA Premier McGowan to Carnarvon today was seen by McGowan haters (sore loser Liberals?)as just some kind of junket, while his trip was applauded by his supporters.
If a simple (though with an eye on the politics of course) reasonable trip cannot be made without infuriating some, while being thought okay by others, shows our democracy is in a more parlous state than I thought…
I was okay with Morrison doing a “look-at-me” drop in to some airbase on his way home in the last day or two….politicians have done this for ages….But the angst on talk-back radio today against McGowan was beyond fair-mindedness of any kind…..
Kezza2 Postal Votes are already declaration votes – you fill out a very similar form to the one you get if you don’t show ID.
Tricot says:
If a simple (though with an eye on the politics of course) reasonable trip cannot be made without infuriating some, while being thought okay by others, shows our democracy is in a more parlous state than I thought…
_________________
Politics had everything to do with it. Politicians should stay out of all police related matters in my opinion. Nothing can stop them imposing themselves onto an issue they feel will gain them some popularity however.
I have to admit one thing. With an absolute dominance in parliament and excellent personal numbers McGowan is not leaving anything on the table!
‘Rex Patrick got into the Senate through Centre Alliance when a vacancy opened up after Xenophon left. Now an independent. Only a slim chance of being re-elected, but has a reasonably high profile. South Aussies do like independents in the Senate, though. But I don’t think Stirling Griff is in with a chance.’
Rex Patrick actually started his own party the Rex Patrick Team. Realistically both him and Stirling Griff are certain to be gone at the next election.
Patrick leaving Centre Alliance may have had a better chance if he joined the Australian Democrats and tried to revive them. I don’t know if he has similar positions to the Australian Democrats though. Even then I doubt he could compete with Xenophons candidacy or the Greens.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/11/01/federal-election-guide/comment-page-43/#comment-3740083
The British are technically still a Pacific and Indian Ocean power. They still have the Pitcairn Islands and the British Indian Ocean Territory (where Diego Garcia is). Both key parts of the sun not having set on British territory for over 2 centuries, since at least the Hong Kong handback.
Oh, good,
Thanks William and brett
I wouldn’t put too much store in an AFR op ed about how wonderful certain Liberal politicians are.
The AFR was the same publication that said Gladys was the woman who saved Australia, and then doubled down a few months later by citing her as the very embodiment of political power on the very day she was forced to give it up in disgrace.
So I wouldn’t take too much notice of prognostications in that rag.
The voter ID law has no impact on postal voting.
Naturally, because they favour the Coalition…
My understanding is that he gave up the piss after he was elected to parliament and didn’t take it up again until after he left.
[‘The Australian defence minister, Peter Dutton, has urged France to put aside any “hurt feelings” over the scrapping of the submarine contract in order to focus on the “great uncertainty with China in our region”.
A day after the French ambassador described the Australian government’s release of a private text message as a new low, Dutton said the envoy was simply “reading from a script from Paris” and Emmanuel Macron’s government was “posturing” ahead of next year’s presidential election.
With senior members of the Australian government defending the leak as necessary step to rebut the claim Scott Morrison was a liar, and with one backbencher labelling France a “spurned lover”, Labor went on the attack.
Labor’s Senate leader, Penny Wong, said Morrison had shown he was someone “whose reflex is spin rather than sincerity” and “stubbornly refuses to say, yes, we could have handled this better”.
“You don’t make a country more secure by demonstrating that you’re prepared to damage at any cost, damage partnerships and alliances,” Wong told the ABC.
“We’ve seen a leader who did that – and that person was Donald Trump.”] – Guardian
Australia, too, will have an election around the same time as
the first round of the French election on April, 10; thus Dutton’s argument is found wanting – no suprises there.
Morrison is playing to the nationalistic fervour of his base. Labor should tread warily, stressing his extraordinary lack of nuance in foreign affairs while not upping the ante so as to make it a case of Australia v. France – leave that to the Wallabies & les Bleus.
It’s fortunate that the highly competent Wong’s on the job. She’ll make an excellent FA minister, particularly in our region. And who knows, she may, with quiet diplomacy, be able improve our relations with China. As for Payne, I’d be surprised that more than one in a hundred thousand would know she’s this country’s Foreign Affairs’ minister, such is her extremely low profile. Contrast her, for example, with Evans and Carr, even Downer.
Bob Hawke never claimed to be a role model for the virtue of temperance in his pre-Parliamentary career. He gave up drinking when he entered Parliamentary politics and didn’t drink again until a couple of years after leaving the Prime Ministership.
As I just commented to the David Crowe opinion piece:
‘Scott Morrison is not sure-footed and deft as a national political leader. We have 3 years of evidence of that now. I think he has promoted himself in the Liberal Party way beyond his pay grade and it is now for the electorate to asses whether they want to hand the mantle of national leader back to him for another 3 years.
As far as I can see things, Scott Morrison acts like a leader, like an actor playing the part of a national leader, but seems to be incapable of understanding what a leader should be beyond acting like one.
To the extent that, without a script to go by, he falls down in his job. As we saw with the bushfires, where he went to Hawaii instead of sticking around to lead; where he failed to deal appropriately with aspects of the pandemic, such as vaccine procurement and the distribution of vaccines into Aged Care and Disability Care.
Also, most recently with the diplomacy around the AUKUS deal and revoking the contract with France and his reluctance to deal with the existential global threat of Global Heating and Climate Change.
So very superficial, and so inadequate.
The nation needs better than that from its national leader.’
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/macron-or-micron-morrison-will-have-to-measure-the-cost-of-enraging-france-20211104-p595z6.html
And Peter Dutton attempting to turn a diplomacy epic fail into something similar to a kid crying (Macron) after he had his lunch money stolen by the class bully, ie Morrison, is simply yet another tawdry trivialisation of a very serious matter by this Coalition government.
Anyway, none of our resident Liberals have mentioned the massive scandal of the Kangaroo Island Port, especially the culpability of the Liberal State Government in South Australia and the Coalition Federal Government. The Nation demands answers. Who knew what when? Why hasn’t Morrison made any comment. Who is he protecting?
Steve777says:
Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 10:17 pm
The voter ID law has no impact on postal voting.
Naturally, because they favour the Coalition
Ahh but the question is Why do Postal votes favour the Coalition.
C@tmomma:
Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 10:33 pm
Crowe’s article’s spot on. I take back what I’ve said about him, that he’s suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.
Edit: Is that your comment? If it is, BZ.
Ahh but the question is Why do Postal votes favour the Coalition.
Apparently they don’t in the USA, so the Republicans set out to suppress them.
In Australia, our situation is different.
The cohorts of voters most likely to want to vote postally would include:
– the elderly, in general more likely to vote Conservative
– those in rural areas, ditto
– those travelling for business – more likely than not to have higher incomes than the general population —> Conservative
– those travelling for personal reasons, including holidays but maybe family reasons – ditto. Poor people can’t afford to travel.
Those less likely to vote postally would be the young, these days most of whom have never posted a letter in their life.
If Labor operated like the Conservatives, they would make postal voting more difficult.
[‘Vaccine rollout:
NSW
89% fully vaccinated; 93.8% first dose
National
79.1% fully vaccinated; 88.9% first dose
Of the estimated population aged 16 and over.’] – SMH
In regards Smith, he has broken the law, at least by driving when over the legal limit for alcohol consumption
A career hanging offence?
Not in my opinion
The reason is the (lack of) severity of the sentence if found guilty (which you would expect will be his plead with contrition)
So loss of licence for 12 months and a fine – tellingly no Good Behaviour Bond
How many employers dismiss employees on the basis of a (so one) drink driving offence?
I would suggest none – in fact employers may not even know (so it is not as if leave is sought to accomodate a period of incarceration)
Yes, Smith’s employment is high profile as a MP
But does that employment mean Smith incurs the additional penalty of loss of employment (over and above a demotion)?
I think not
The electors of Kew may have a different opinion, not wishing to be represented by an MP with a (one) drunk driving offence
But that is for the majority of them
Mind you, if Smith repeats the offence that is another question – because he has not learned
My view anyway
And Guy, with his response, has given himself a problem
Demote Smith as the penalty – and speak to the requirement that Smith redeems himself in the eye of the public
Then shut up
Steve777
the elderly, in general more likely to vote Conservative
– those in rural areas, ditto
– those travelling for business – more likely than not to have higher incomes than the general population —> Conservative
– those travelling for personal reasons, including holidays but maybe family reasons – ditto. Poor people can’t afford to travel.
Sounds like a great cross- section of Australians.
The elderly and wise
Rural people. Hard working people who supply Australia with it’s food. Huge exporter Australian produce.
Business people. Hard working people prepared to take the risk.
People who after working there entire life now able to travel.
So who is left
– Students and teachers.
– Housing Commission.
– Unions.
– Government workers.
Not really nation builders. More leaners than lifters in that mob.
According to QAnon supporters JFK Jnr. is returning from the dead to run as the running mate of Trump in 2024:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGdm386TRnY&t=329s
The fact he didn’t turn up at the place where his father was assassinated is immaterial.
People who need their driving license for their work would mostly lose their jobs if they are convicted of drink driving. Those who don’t and can get to work without driving would in general not need to disclose it to an employer. Their family and social circle will know, but unless the miscreant is a public figure, it goes no further.
Mr Smith is a public figure. He’s in politics. Should he be convicted, that will be public knowledge. That will affect his own electorability and that of his party. Even the Murdochracy can’t save him. Too bad, so sad (not). He will be exiled to the outer darkness to do penance, or maybe warehoused for a few years if the powers that be consider it worthwhile. In any case, he won’t be subject to the gentle mercies of Centrelink.
On Hawke and alcohol, he did not resume (relatively moderate, compared to previous form) drinking a couple of years after losing office. At best it was a couple of hours. He was nursing a beer, fulsomely greeting well wishers with typical wounded bonhomie, that last night he occupied the PMO after being rolled by Keating. The fact was barely reported, if at all, in the spirit that still existed then of not kicking a man when he’s down.
Jeez Crowe hasn’t missed with that article
Steely Dan, are you reeling in the years? I did not disparage the elderly, travellers or farmers.
Meanwhile, you disparage people you regard as class enemies, including teachers (hard working at an often thankless job), public servants (presumably excluding Coalition appointees in senior management), unions who balance corporate power (yeah right, individual workers can “negotiate” with a multi billion $ corporation), public housing (we need more to rein in a corrupt housing market) and the young.
But S777
You present a maze of contradictions for the same offence – and in regard penalty, which is the measure surely?
So if you use your vehicle in employment the penalty (losing your job) is more extreme by a very large margin over and above not using your vehicle in employment (so keeping your job)
Surely the penalty should be consistent across society?
Steely reminding us of the the true nature of the Liberal Party, class warfare against those they deem less worthy, always sticking their noses up to those less fortunate than them, always trying to stab them and kick them down.
But Scomo knows he needs some of these folks, that why he tries so hard to appeal to bogans all the time with his daggy dad persona.
Steve777says:
Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 11:35 pm
Steely Dan, are you reeling in the years? I did not disparage the elderly, travellers or farmers.
Meanwhile, you disparage people you regard as class enemies, including teachers (hard working at an often thankless job), public servants (presumably excluding Coalition appointees in senior management), unions who balance corporate power (yeah right, individual workers can “negotiate” with a multi billion $ corporation), public housing (we need more to rein in a corrupt housing market) and the young.
Maybe I was a bit harsh but I thought your list which I agree with is quite telling.
“The Nation demands answers. Who knew what when? Why hasn’t Morrison made any comment. Who is he protecting?”
Wasn’t that company that got a motza$ for offshore detention from the Libs a while ago domiciled on Kangaroo Island??
“People who need their driving license for their work would mostly lose their jobs if they are convicted of drink driving.”
LoL! He can get a Govt car and driver cant he??
Re Observer @11:43.
The penalty for drink driving is a fine plus suspension / loss of licence, with jail sentences for the worst cases. There is some latitude allowed but the penalty is basically the same for everyone. How could it be otherwise?
Maybe I was a bit harsh but I thought your list which I agree with is quite telling.
I didn’t intend the list to be “telling”. Thinking about postal voting in response to earlier posts, I listed those who I thought most likely to vote postal. Labor won’t try to suppress the votes of the elderly, travellers or rural people. On the other hand the Coalition is on record as setting out to suppress the votes of the young, the itinerant and the precariat.
Anyway, way past bed time. Good night.
”
mikehilliardsays:
Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 9:44 pm
Ven
shill
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shill
”
Got it.
“A shill, also called a plant or a stooge, is a person who publicly helps or gives credibility to a person or organization without disclosing that they have a close relationship with said person or organization. Shills can carry out their operations in the areas of media, journalism, marketing, politics, sports, confidence games, or other business areas. A shill may also act to discredit opponents or critics of the person or organization in which they have a vested interest.[citation needed]”
Observer @ #2173 Thursday, November 4th, 2021 – 10:04 pm
I would suggest you’re conveniently ignoring the part where Smith drove into a (very stationary) house, and caused damage to his vehicle seemingly well in excess of what might be expected based on the posted 40kph limit.
If you want to play the “it was just a run of the mill drink-driving incident” game, that means he got randomly breathalized whilst otherwise driving “fine”. That’s not the problem he has, so you’re playing the wrong game.
I know Steely is just a stirrer but he (she?) does write crap. He reckons rural people supply our food and exports. That is only partly true. They couldn’t grow much without the support of many, for example workers on the wharves, roads, and railways. People who build and service machinery, work in fertilizer factories or insure their crops. People who provide utilities like power, water, and communications, the list is long. We get food and fibre thanks to the efforts of many, including members of unions. The only drag on the economy at the moment is the corrupt and incompetent clowns in the LNP.
Quick Bubsy Update, Day #6
There’s a long way to go, but this is a bird who could only fly a metre a week ago – as long as it was downhill.
Bubsy, we’re proud of you.
You made me look. 🙂
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bravo_Zulu
The “beach shack” – yes.
Great Barrier Reef’s future dealt blow as study finds only 2% escaped coral bleaching
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/05/great-barrier-reefs-future-dealt-blow-as-study-finds-only-2-escaped-coral-bleaching
The 1918 influenza tore through Māori communities. Anti-vaxxers risk this again
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/05/the-1918-influenza-tore-through-maori-communities-anti-vaxxers-risk-this-again
The saga continues…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/manhattan-da-convenes-new-grand-jury-in-trump-case-to-weigh-potential-charges/2021/11/04/79549fe0-3d8b-11ec-a493-51b0252dea0c_story.html
New thread.
Steely
You’ve just proven the point – that postal voting favours the conservatives, which is why they’re not going after it as part of their reforms.
So thanks for confirming that the proposed voter ID laws are about making it harder for certain cohorts of largely left leaning voters to vote.
++++
As for Tim Smith, the call for him to leave Parliament has been made by his leader, Matthew Guy, not by anyone here (although some might agree with him).
So anyone attacking this decision is attacking Matthew Guy and undermining his leadership.
If Smith had graciously stepped aside – and if he’s such a red hot talent, then I’m sure the private sector will snap him up – Guy’s leadership would have been strengthened and his chances at the next election heightened.
Smith digging in his heels – and being supported in that by other Liberals – basically shows that Guy has no authority within his party and lacks the support of the wider Liberal network. It says to the average punter that the Liberal party is disunited and that self interest trumps the interests of the party (which means that self interest also trumps the interests of the voters).
That is not helping the Victorian Liberals one bit.
If I wanted – which I don’t – the Vic Libs to do well at the next election (State or Federal), I’d be putting pressure on Smith to go, rather than trying to defend his actions.
Jaeger @ #2192 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 6:26 am
Jaeger: Thanks. That pearl could be useful as there seems to be an anomalously high proportion of retired RAN types locally (Coffs): I have been involved in the treatment of two of Flag rank. I presume that the origin is “Bravo” as in cheers and “Zulu” as in last letter of the alphabet.
Bugger. Wrong reply. That should have been the BZ post…
Really… the most 2 faced bullshit artists to have ever been in Gov. Where was Gorman when he had a chance to do something.. other than for himself..
‘Remove distortions’: Mathias Cormann calls for fossil fuel subsidies to be abolished