Federal election guide

Introducing the Poll Bludger’s guide to the (presumably) 2022 federal election.

The Poll Bludger’s guide to what I hope it is now safe to assume will be the 2022 federal election is open for business. There remain many gaps to fill owing to yet-to-be-declared candidates, and a Senate guide is still a work in progress (by which I mean I haven’t started it yet), but it remains a pretty substantial piece of work as is. If you find it stimulating or useful, you can show your appreciation by throwing some pennies into the collection jar, featured at the top of the site in the shape of the “become a supporter” button.

A bright and colourful front page serves as an entry point to the 151 individual electorate pages, each featuring a write-up based on detail I have accumulated since I first did one of these things way back in 2004, adding up to around 75,000 words all told. These are complemented by a range of charts and tables detailing past election results and demographic indicators, the latter compiled from 2016 census data to reflect the current boundaries (with acknowledgement due to Antony Green’s post-redistribution margin estimates), together with interactive maps showing booth results from the last election, which can be seen in detail by clicking on the booth icons.

Also featured is an overview page that includes, among other things, a summary of the national polling situation that I hope I remember to update nearer the big day. In the likely absence of any new polling this week, and for the sake of something substantial to hang this post off, I hereby repaste this section in full:

The most striking feature of state-level polling over the past term has been a seismic shift to Labor in Western Australia, where the party has not recorded a majority of the two-party vote at a federal election since 1987. This seems intuitively satisfying given the historical scale of the McGowan government’s win at the state election in March, winning 53 of 59 seats in the state’s lower house with a record-shattering two-party vote of 69.7%. At a bare minimum, Labor would seem a very strong chance of gaining the seat of Swan, which has a retiring Liberal member on a post-redistribution margin of 3.2%. Labor should also be at least competitive in Hasluck, with a Liberal margin of 5.9%, and Pearce, where the redistribution has cut the beleaguered Christian Porter’s margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.

In Victoria, the Coalition performed relatively well during the state’s first COVID-19 crisis in mid-2020, but declined sharply as a new outbreak took hold in New South Wales and spread across the border in mid-2021, as Labor appeared to gain traction with its claim that Scott Morrison had acted as the “Prime Minister of New South Wales”. However, the only highly marginal Liberal seat in Victoria is Chisholm in Melbourne’s inner east, a seat notable for its Chinese population. Other possibilities for Labor include neighbouring Higgins (margin 3.7%), an historically blue-ribbon seat with an increasingly green-left complexion; Casey on Melbourne’s eastern fringe (4.6%), where Labor will be boosted with the retirement of Liberal incumbent Tony Smith; and the eastern suburbs seat of Deakin (4.7%), an historically tough nut for Labor.

Conversely, the damage to the Coalition from the mid-2021 outbreak appeared relatively mild in New South Wales itself, to the extent that the Coalition is hopeful of gain to redress any losses elsewhere. One such calculation is that Labor owed its wins in Eden-Monaro in 2016 and 2019 to the now-departed Mike Kelly, and its threadbare winning margin in July 2020 to the difficulty governments typically face at by-elections. Another is that its loss of neighbouring Gilmore in 2019 reflected a problematic preselection process, and that it will now return to the fold. With the retirement of Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon, the Nationals could enjoy a further boost in Hunter (margin 3.0%), whose coal-mining communities savaged Labor in 2019. Labor also has tight margins in Macquarie on Sydney’s western fringe (0.2%), the Central Coast seat of Dobell (1.5%) and the western Sydney seat of Greenway (2.8%), whereas the Coalition’s most marginal seat is Reid in Sydney’s inner west on a margin of 3.2%.

Queensland has been the crucible of Australian federal elections over the past two decades, but the state’s remarkable result in 2019 left the Coalition with imposing margins in most of the state’s traditional marginal seats without quite shaking Labor loose in its strongholds. Labor’s polling in the state surged in the wake of the re-election of Annastacia Palszczuk’s state government in October 2020, though it subsequently moved back in line with the national trend. Labor’s highest hopes are reportedly for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, held by veteran Liberal National Party member Warren Entsch on a margin of 4.2%, which resisted the surge to the Coalition across regional Queensland in 2019. The most marginal LNP seat is Longman on Brisbane’s northern fringe, at 3.3%. Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson is the third most marginal at 4.6%.

The sole battlefield in South Australia is likely to be Boothby, a southern Adelaide seat in which long-held Labor hopes have never quite been realised. It will be vacated with the retirement of two-term Liberal member Nicolle Flint, who retained it in 2019 by 1.4%. Greater attention is likely to focus on Tasmania, where the three seats of the state’s centre and north have see-sawed over recent decades. Labor will naturally hope to gain Bass, with its Liberal margin of 0.4% and record of changing hands at eight of the last ten elections, and to a lesser extent neighbouring Braddon, which the Liberals gained in 2019 with a 3.1% margin. However, the Liberals hope to succeed in Lyons where they failed in 2019 after disendorsing their candidate mid-campaign. Labor seems likely to maintain its lock on the five territory seats, although the retirement of veteran Warren Snowdon suggests the Northern Territory seat of Lingiari is less secure than its 5.5% margin suggests.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,202 comments on “Federal election guide”

Comments Page 5 of 45
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  2. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 10:58 am
    On the one hand you have considered thoughts from Singing Bloos. Which resonate with other thoughtful people.

    On the other hand you have cack-handed smarm from mundo. Which pisses people off on the regular.

    You be the judge as to whose commentary is more worthwhile.

    It’s hard to tell at times. Certainly Mundo contributes very little beyond sarcasm and constant pessimism about Labor’s chances, whereas SB can be very thoughtful and informative when he puts his mind to it. It’s just a pity that so much of his commentary is based around his obsessive hatred of the Greens.

    By the way, good to see you up and firing again C@t. I knew you would be because you are not a quitter.

  6. Berejiklian: “By-elections are notorious for making political announcements.”

    It’s obvious the way Berejiklian’s mind ticks.

  7. Barney,

    “Morrison also said Macron didn’t speak English. Macron clearly speaks it well enough to slaughter Scott in that interview.”

    Macron had several lies to choose from.

  9. U.S. COVID update:

    – New cases: 16,850 ……………………. – New deaths: 132 ( weekend results )

    – In hospital: 47,542 (-554)
    – In ICU: 12,767 (-341)

    766,299 total deaths now

  11. Rex Douglas

    This is the same tim Smith who has every day of this pandemic, played with the mental health of Victorians.
    Sheesh!

  15. C@t

    So, ‘Arts and Culture and Music Halls’ are okay for Liberals to publicly fund, but ‘School Halls’ weren’t?

    Sounds about right.

  17. Rex Douglas @ #214 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 9:19 am

    Proud Australians must be quietly appalled at how Morrison is tarnishing the Australian brand on the global stage.

    No, most people are able to differentiate between the actions of a Government and the people as a whole.

    Macron illustrated this perfectly with his comment today.

  18. The defence for Gladys seems to be that (according to her friends) she is an absolutely upright, moral person, therefore she would never suspect her lover to engage in anything underhand. Yet she thinks pork barrelling is just the way politics works.

  19. Berejiklian is now attempting to legitimise blatant pork barrelling, using the term “throwing money at electorates during elections”.

  20. Bystander @ #202 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 12:10 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 10:58 am
    On the one hand you have considered thoughts from Singing Bloos. Which resonate with other thoughtful people.

    On the other hand you have cack-handed smarm from mundo. Which pisses people off on the regular.

    You be the judge as to whose commentary is more worthwhile.

    It’s hard to tell at times. Certainly Mundo contributes very little beyond sarcasm and constant pessimism about Labor’s chances, whereas SB can be very thoughtful and informative when he puts his mind to it. It’s just a pity that so much of his commentary is based around his obsessive hatred of the Greens.

    By the way, good to see you up and firing again C@t. I knew you would be because you are not a quitter.

    It is good to have ‘moaner back, I agree,
    Although I still have her blocked so I rely on these quotes from her posts to follow what’s she’s up to.
    Maybe I’ll try thoughtful.
    It sounds like fun.
    Pretty sure the whole Macron thing will blow over in a day or two.
    It’ll take more than a pissed off Frenchman to bring Scotty down.
    Scotty just flashes that repellent crooked grin. ‘I’m not scared of you mate’, he’s thinking.
    As he once said to Albo across the dispatch box.

  21. Digging a deeper hole?

    Alastair Nicholson
    @alasnich
    ·
    15m
    It now emerges that Scotty says that he told Macron of Australia’s dissatisfaction about the submarine deal over dinner. A curious time and place to raise such an issue, especially when it is unlikely that anyone would be taking notes. A likely story?

  24. One to watch…..
    .

    Laura Tingle
    @latingle
    Seems a fortuitous time to mention that Ambassador of France to Australia Jean-Pierre Thebault will be addressing
    @PressClubAust
    on Wednesday at 12.30. The speech will be broadcast on
    @ABCTV
    Quote Tweet
    National Press Club
    @PressClubAust
    · Oct 26
    JUST ANNOUNCED: Next Wednesday 3rd November, Jean-Pierre Thebault, Ambassador of France to Australia, will address the #NPC. Strictly limited tickets available now: https://npc.org.au/speaker/2021/921-his-excellency-jean-pierre-thebault @FranceAustralia @latingle

  35. [‘There is no parallel in recent memory for the moment when French President Emmanuel Macron called Scott Morrison a liar.

    Macron was asked a direct question about his talks with the Prime Minister before the sudden termination of a submarine contract worth $90 billion for the French defence industry.

    French President says Scott Morrison lied to him over the cancellation of a mammoth submarine contract as tensions between the two leaders escalated further.

    “Do you think he lied to you?” asked Bevan Shields of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.

    “I don’t think, I know,” said Macron.

    It is an extraordinary political moment. And extremely dangerous for Morrison.

    Those five words will be replayed by Morrison’s opponents all the way to election day. It is diabolical for the Prime Minister when trust is central to any campaign.

    Macron was not caught off guard. He did not snap under pressure. There was a flicker of a smile after he spoke. He knew what he was doing.

    In fact, he spoke for several minutes with journalists about the long alliance between Australia and France. He put the rift with Morrison in a historical context.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/an-extraordinary-political-moment-that-is-dangerous-for-morrison-20211101-p594wh.html

    Macron’s saying what most informed people already know:
    Morrison’s an inveterate liar. This will resonate from now until the election. Merci, Emmanuel. You’ve done Australia well.

    (It seems that Crowe’s Stockholm Syndrome is in remission.)

  36. Fred:

    “ I think the most damming part of part of Macron’s comments was not that Morrison was a lair, but the observation that a firm contract for the delivery of conventional subs built in Australia has been replaced with a 18 month talk fest. “Good luck with that” was his parting comment.

    Morrison has really stuffed this up. We now have two world leaders calling him a lair and no contract for the delivery of any submarines. All in attempt to create an election wedge.”

    As per my earlier post.

    With more and more problems being exposed in the Senate’s shipbuilding committee hearings with this nuclear pivot malarkey, I wonder if Albo is tempted to simply announce towards the end of this year that an Albanese Labor Government would commit to commence building the first block of 3-4 Attack class subs in its first term to head off any capability gap that is likely to rip open between about 2037 and 2060 AND invite the French to submit an SSN proposal as part of the 18 month study into a future SSN program.

    Morrison might flounder with that potential political chess board manoeuvre, as the ‘plan’ to simply upgrade and extend the life of the Collins class (which the coalition have always hated, being a Labor legacy after all) is theoretically possible, but extremely hi risk, and inviting the French to submit an SSN proposal doesn’t bind Australia at all, does it? It would simply give us the opportunity to ‘look under the bonnet’ of whatever the US, UK and France could offer us.

    Pretty hard for Morrison to argue against. Especially when fan boys like Greg Sheridan are actively proposing that outcome. Navy Chief, V-A Noonan might be tempted to come to Morrison’s rescue, but all his predecessors and former submarine chiefs would back this as a sensible and safe proposal. …

  38. Yeah this guy is going hard, good on him.
    Glad bags has thrown his client (her ex CoS) under the bus with “her that’s re-collection but not mine” line, he is duty bound to defend his client’s character.

  39. I wish they’d do the same for the feral deer.

    Erin Somerville
    @erinbsomerville
    Parks Victoria’s released its Feral Horse Action Plan 2021 for the Alpine National Park. It features the continuation of trapping and rehoming, and using professional shooters in some parts

  40. Either

    Berejiklian told Cruikshank that the relationship was historical. Which would have been a lie.

    Or if Cruikshank understood the relationship was ongoing, it was her obligation that she had to disclose the conflict of interest. Which she didn’t.

    The focus is tightening on whether Gladys lied to Cruikshank.

    Edit: altered to clarify: on whether Gladys lied

  43. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 11:51 am

    Barney,

    Morrison also said Macron didn’t speak English. Macron clearly speaks it well enough to slaughter Scott in that interview.
    ——————————
    Morrison is flat out ignorant because Macron only speaks French most of the time because the French insist on speaking French.

  44. Mexicanbeemer

    I was faintly amused when someone criticised Blair for speaking French in France. Said he was showing off. Insular Australians really have no idea of multi-lingual Europeans and their courtesy to each other.

  46. Most educated Europeans speak English as their second language.
    My observation from family in Italy is that they actually display a high standard of vocabulary .
    I daresay even better than Australians, where English is their first language.

  47. I’m scratching my head here trying to work out how Scomo managed to fuck every stage of this submarine thing so badly. It all just seemed and still seems so… avoidable.

    Now he’s apparently just making shit up in order to, I assume, save some face in the Aussie press, and has just made things about a hundred times worse for himself!

  48. Morrison and co have been operating in a delusional bubble.
    Gaslighting Australians each and every day.

    On the world stage, Morrison has found he cannot control this bubble.

  49. mundo says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 11:11 am
    …..
    Stop being silly, that’s a good girl.

    Sexist put-down….really quite unacceptable. mundo, you should withdraw that and apologise.

  50. He keeps his mask off so he’s instantly recognisable.

    It would be impossible to ignore him if he copied one of David Rowe’s cartoons and appeared wearing only a sporran.

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