Federal election guide

Introducing the Poll Bludger’s guide to the (presumably) 2022 federal election.

The Poll Bludger’s guide to what I hope it is now safe to assume will be the 2022 federal election is open for business. There remain many gaps to fill owing to yet-to-be-declared candidates, and a Senate guide is still a work in progress (by which I mean I haven’t started it yet), but it remains a pretty substantial piece of work as is. If you find it stimulating or useful, you can show your appreciation by throwing some pennies into the collection jar, featured at the top of the site in the shape of the “become a supporter” button.

A bright and colourful front page serves as an entry point to the 151 individual electorate pages, each featuring a write-up based on detail I have accumulated since I first did one of these things way back in 2004, adding up to around 75,000 words all told. These are complemented by a range of charts and tables detailing past election results and demographic indicators, the latter compiled from 2016 census data to reflect the current boundaries (with acknowledgement due to Antony Green’s post-redistribution margin estimates), together with interactive maps showing booth results from the last election, which can be seen in detail by clicking on the booth icons.

Also featured is an overview page that includes, among other things, a summary of the national polling situation that I hope I remember to update nearer the big day. In the likely absence of any new polling this week, and for the sake of something substantial to hang this post off, I hereby repaste this section in full:

The most striking feature of state-level polling over the past term has been a seismic shift to Labor in Western Australia, where the party has not recorded a majority of the two-party vote at a federal election since 1987. This seems intuitively satisfying given the historical scale of the McGowan government’s win at the state election in March, winning 53 of 59 seats in the state’s lower house with a record-shattering two-party vote of 69.7%. At a bare minimum, Labor would seem a very strong chance of gaining the seat of Swan, which has a retiring Liberal member on a post-redistribution margin of 3.2%. Labor should also be at least competitive in Hasluck, with a Liberal margin of 5.9%, and Pearce, where the redistribution has cut the beleaguered Christian Porter’s margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.

In Victoria, the Coalition performed relatively well during the state’s first COVID-19 crisis in mid-2020, but declined sharply as a new outbreak took hold in New South Wales and spread across the border in mid-2021, as Labor appeared to gain traction with its claim that Scott Morrison had acted as the “Prime Minister of New South Wales”. However, the only highly marginal Liberal seat in Victoria is Chisholm in Melbourne’s inner east, a seat notable for its Chinese population. Other possibilities for Labor include neighbouring Higgins (margin 3.7%), an historically blue-ribbon seat with an increasingly green-left complexion; Casey on Melbourne’s eastern fringe (4.6%), where Labor will be boosted with the retirement of Liberal incumbent Tony Smith; and the eastern suburbs seat of Deakin (4.7%), an historically tough nut for Labor.

Conversely, the damage to the Coalition from the mid-2021 outbreak appeared relatively mild in New South Wales itself, to the extent that the Coalition is hopeful of gain to redress any losses elsewhere. One such calculation is that Labor owed its wins in Eden-Monaro in 2016 and 2019 to the now-departed Mike Kelly, and its threadbare winning margin in July 2020 to the difficulty governments typically face at by-elections. Another is that its loss of neighbouring Gilmore in 2019 reflected a problematic preselection process, and that it will now return to the fold. With the retirement of Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon, the Nationals could enjoy a further boost in Hunter (margin 3.0%), whose coal-mining communities savaged Labor in 2019. Labor also has tight margins in Macquarie on Sydney’s western fringe (0.2%), the Central Coast seat of Dobell (1.5%) and the western Sydney seat of Greenway (2.8%), whereas the Coalition’s most marginal seat is Reid in Sydney’s inner west on a margin of 3.2%.

Queensland has been the crucible of Australian federal elections over the past two decades, but the state’s remarkable result in 2019 left the Coalition with imposing margins in most of the state’s traditional marginal seats without quite shaking Labor loose in its strongholds. Labor’s polling in the state surged in the wake of the re-election of Annastacia Palszczuk’s state government in October 2020, though it subsequently moved back in line with the national trend. Labor’s highest hopes are reportedly for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, held by veteran Liberal National Party member Warren Entsch on a margin of 4.2%, which resisted the surge to the Coalition across regional Queensland in 2019. The most marginal LNP seat is Longman on Brisbane’s northern fringe, at 3.3%. Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson is the third most marginal at 4.6%.

The sole battlefield in South Australia is likely to be Boothby, a southern Adelaide seat in which long-held Labor hopes have never quite been realised. It will be vacated with the retirement of two-term Liberal member Nicolle Flint, who retained it in 2019 by 1.4%. Greater attention is likely to focus on Tasmania, where the three seats of the state’s centre and north have see-sawed over recent decades. Labor will naturally hope to gain Bass, with its Liberal margin of 0.4% and record of changing hands at eight of the last ten elections, and to a lesser extent neighbouring Braddon, which the Liberals gained in 2019 with a 3.1% margin. However, the Liberals hope to succeed in Lyons where they failed in 2019 after disendorsing their candidate mid-campaign. Labor seems likely to maintain its lock on the five territory seats, although the retirement of veteran Warren Snowdon suggests the Northern Territory seat of Lingiari is less secure than its 5.5% margin suggests.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,202 comments on “Federal election guide”

Comments Page 6 of 45
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  1. The hearing’s adjourned sine die. It’s been an excellent expose of how the Berejiklian Government operated and should send shivers up & down the spine of those who throw public money around as if it was their own. Next on the agenda, a federal ICAC, with retrospective powers. Labor will be on a winner with this one.

  2. Singing Bloos @ #247 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 1:01 pm

    mundo says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 11:11 am
    …..
    Stop being silly, that’s a good girl.

    Sexist put-down….really quite unacceptable. mundo, you should withdraw that and apologise.

    Thank you for bringing this to my attention and for your defense. It’s obvious to me that mundo’s obvious inadequacies, especially as they have been pointed out by me, compel him to speak that way. Sad little mundo. 🙂

  3. lizzie says Monday, November 1, 2021 at 12:53 pm

    I was faintly amused when someone criticised Blair for speaking French in France. Said he was showing off. Insular Australians really have no idea of multi-lingual Europeans and their courtesy to each other.

    During the lead up to the 2007 APEC meeting in Sydney, Rudd addressed the Chinese delegation in Mandarin. The footage displayed on the news suggested that the Chinese were impressed. I think this helped Rudd. I don’t think Australians have a problem with a leader making our country look good.

    I remember it being reported during the last French Presidential elections that Macron was highly fluent in English. I find it extremely surprising that an Australian Prime Minister would not know that. If the reports are accurate that Morrison claimed that Macron did not speak English then how can Morrison have spoken to him the other day? Morrison has a history of lying when under pressure. Is this another example?

  4. Having watched a hell of a lot of the just concluded ICAC hearing, I reckon Berejiklian’s fate will turn on the commission’s determination of which of her or Ms Cruikshank’s version of the conversation when Gladys revealed to her the relationship with Maguire and whether or not it was historical or ongoing at the time of the conversation.
    Cruikshank’s lawyer may have made the commission’s job easier.

  5. Scotty needs a remonder that there’s a difference between ‘Didn’t speak English’ and ‘Can’t speak English’ 🙂


  6. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 12:46 pm
    ….
    With more and more problems being exposed in the Senate’s shipbuilding committee hearings with this nuclear pivot malarkey, I wonder if Albo is tempted to simply announce towards the end of this year that an Albanese Labor Government would commit to commence building the first block of 3-4 Attack class subs in its first term to head off any capability gap that is likely to rip open between about 2037 and 2060 AND invite the French to submit an SSN proposal as part of the 18 month study into a future SSN program.
    ….

    The election should be about competency and honesty. If the election settles that in Labors favor than fixing the mess Morrison has created becomes the issue. You don’t make the election about policy when policy is not the issue.

  7. Callas was unlucky in love, too; in Onassis finding a scoundrel. The pics of Berejiklian at the end of the hearing bear a striking resemblance to “La Divina” – both in looks and circumstances. Let’s hope in Moses she finds some happiness.

  8. SM has called Macron a liar for several weeks by saying that he made it obvious to Macron that the subs did not meet the requirements without there being any official discussions or negotiation about this change.

    Had SM said to Macron we need a nuclear-powered submarine the outcome would almost certainly be an assurance that that was possible. Australia would have a better negotiating position, having both France and America competing. Instead, he has put Australia in an unnecessary weak position being dependent on one supplier.

    SM has put in jeopardy our historic ties with France at a time when this ally is need in the pacific. It should be expected that a decision that involves the economic and strategic security of our country result in an improvement, especially before an election, in our situation. It does not.

  9. Singing Bloos @ #249 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 1:01 pm

    mundo says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 11:11 am
    …..
    Stop being silly, that’s a good girl.

    Sexist put-down….really quite unacceptable. mundo, you should withdraw that and apologise.

    Ok.
    Stop being silly, that’s a good non-specifically-gendered person.
    That’s as far as I go.
    I don’t really see how being called a girl is sexist or a put-down though, if you are one.
    But if you think it is I’ve got a lot of apologising to do to my little niece.
    I could start calling her/it a good boy but I reckon that’d be confusing.
    Anyway, this is a bit like ICAC, isn’t it.

  10. mundo says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 1:36 pm

    It’s nothing like ICAC. This is about avoiding sexist usages between bludgers.

  11. Singing Bloos says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 1:40 pm

    mundo says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 1:36 pm

    It’s nothing like ICAC. This is about avoiding sexist usages between bludgers.
    __________
    there are alot of assumptions about people’s gender on here. How do we know mundo is not female. Is it sexist for a female to call a female a girl?

  12. pukka @ #262 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 10:32 am

    SM has called Macron a liar for several weeks by saying that he made it obvious to Macron that the subs did not meet the requirements without there being any official discussions or negotiation about this change.

    Had SM said to Macron we need a nuclear-powered submarine the outcome would almost certainly be an assurance that that was possible. Australia would have a better negotiating position, having both France and America competing. Instead, he has put Australia in an unnecessary weak position being dependent on one supplier.

    SM has put in jeopardy our historic ties with France at a time when this ally is need in the pacific. It should be expected that a decision that involves the economic and strategic security of our country result in an improvement, especially before an election, in our situation. It does not.

    I doubt that he has impacted our long term ties.

    He certainly has negatively impacted on our ties while he remains PM.

  13. Singing Bloos @ #265 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 1:40 pm

    mundo says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 1:36 pm

    It’s nothing like ICAC. This is about avoiding sexist usages between bludgers.

    I’m a naughty boy.
    I can’t help it.
    I wish Cat would stop being mean to me.
    I want to avoid meanness between bludgers.
    Think of me as the Dalai Lama of PB.
    I don’t wish to discuss it any longer.
    Go in peace.

  14. Lurker @ #266 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 1:42 pm

    Singing Bloos says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 1:40 pm

    mundo says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 1:36 pm

    It’s nothing like ICAC. This is about avoiding sexist usages between bludgers.
    __________
    there are alot of assumptions about people’s gender on here. How do we know mundo is not female. Is it sexist for a female to call a female a girl?

    See! It IS a bit like ICAC.

  15. Lurker @ #266 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 10:42 am

    Singing Bloos says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 1:40 pm

    mundo says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 1:36 pm

    It’s nothing like ICAC. This is about avoiding sexist usages between bludgers.
    __________
    there are alot of assumptions about people’s gender on here. How do we know mundo is not female. Is it sexist for a female to call a female a girl?

    Irrelevant, you silly little boy. 😆

  16. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:

    Irrelevant, you silly little boy.
    __________
    Hey! I could be Peta Credlin. Or just as tough. You’d come off second best I bet!

  17. mavis @ #268 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 1:45 pm

    mundo,

    About a week ago Mavis posted a vid of Albanese addressing an MPI (I think). Mavis was hoping that mundo would critique it. In case mundo didn’t view it, Mavis reposts it:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zYh2jugYAM

    I thought it was brilliant.
    I just wish he got more coverage/attention. Obviously.
    I noticed non of the gutless wonders were in the house. An old ‘Monkey’ trick.
    I have issues with the delivery, the words are Keating-esque but lack the compelling delivery. Of course the dynamic would be different if Morrison and his rabble without a cause had been there.

  18. mundo says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 1:55 pm

    I have issues with the delivery, the words are Keating-esque but lack the compelling delivery. Of course
    _______________
    Not much he can do about that. But what he can work on is lifting his head higher, which comes from knowing the speech better, or being more confident about knowing it. When he’s looking down all the time, it lacks the punch of when he is looking upwards. Still a good job. thanks mavis.

  19. mundo @ #273 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 1:55 pm

    mavis @ #268 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 1:45 pm

    mundo,

    About a week ago Mavis posted a vid of Albanese addressing an MPI (I think). Mavis was hoping that mundo would critique it. In case mundo didn’t view it, Mavis reposts it:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zYh2jugYAM

    I thought it was brilliant.
    I just wish he got more coverage/attention. Obviously.
    I noticed non of the gutless wonders were in the house. An old ‘Monkey’ trick.
    I have issues with the delivery, the words are Keating-esque but lack the compelling delivery. Of course the dynamic would be different if Morrison and his rabble without a cause had been there.

    Click to Edit – <b>mavis</b> @ <a href='https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/11/01/federal-election-guide/comment-page-6/#comment-3737752&#039; title='1635734707000'>#268 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 1:45 pm</a>

    <blockquote>mundo,

    About a week ago Mavis posted a vid of Albanese addressing an MPI (I think). Mavis was hoping that mundo would critique it. In case mundo didn’t view it, Mavis reposts it:

    <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zYh2jugYAM&quot; rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zYh2jugYAM</a></blockquote&gt;

    I thought it was brilliant.
    I just wish he got more coverage/attention. Obviously.
    I noticed non of the gutless wonders were in the house. An old 'Monkey' trick.
    I have issues with the delivery, the words are Keating-esque but lack the compelling delivery. Of course the dynamic would be different if Morrison and his rabble without a cause had been there.SaveCancelDelete

    Also, I think ‘Labor wants a future made in Australia, and Labor will make it happen’
    is better, less glib, everyone has ‘a plan’. It’s a dud epithet.

  20. Berejiklian’s statement following the ICAC’s adjournment:

    [Every decision I made, in terms of the public office I held, was in the best interests of the community and the public.

    I stand by that today stronger than ever, and I just want to say to everybody that it’s been my honour and privilege to serve you in my role in public life.

    And of course, again, every decision I took was in the public’s best interest.

    I don’t want to say too much more than that at this stage, just to say, obviously, what’s occurred to me is a difficult situation but I know many people do it tough in the community.

    And now I intend to get on with my life and I just, again, want to thank everybody for their support.

    But my position hasn’t changed. Every day that I’ve dealt with the public, every day that I’ve made decisions has been in their best interests: of the public, of the government, of the community. It’s been my honour and privilege to serve the community in that way.

    Obviously, I’ve had to fulfil my obligations to the integrity agency and I do so respectfully, it’s their job to look at these matters.

    But as far as I’m concerned, I’ve always put the public first. That’s always been the case and it remains the case.

    And again, thank you very much everybody. I can’t really say any more than that. Thank you.’]

  21. If Morrison tries a version of the “who do you trust” schtick at the next election, trying to channel John Howard, Labor has an obvious comeback – Just ask Turnbull and Macron!

    (Two) pictures to tell a thousand words…

  22. So the President of France said “I don’t think, I know. [that Morrison lied.]”

    (1) Discounting any time that two nations were at war, when was the last time the leader of any world power said words like that of another world leader? The only softening I can imagine is that friends typically show restraint, so it is easier to abuse your friends than it is to abuse your enemies. But even so. This aint over.

    (2) This was said at an international conference of world leaders, with a second to follow immediately. What does that do to Australia’s standing at those conferences? Will any side with Australia? Macron’s parting words still ring in my ears. “Good luck [with that].”

    (3) I expect the right wing press to swing in behind Morrison on nationalistic grounds. I imagine it will be along the lines that the French President’s public insult of Australia’s Prime Minister is a clear example why they can’t be trusted and why Morrison made the correct decision… (f@#$k))

  23. The commissioner ask Gladys why did she not report these dodgy people to NSW ICAC, Gladys tried to deny she knew they were dodgy

    The commissioner was correct when she told Gladys ,we heard you say it during the 52min phone call with Maguire , warning him that you would have stayed away from these dodgy people , you should have reported it.

  24. The idiotic decision to build a $100 million WW1 museum in France can now be counted as a sunk cost.
    It was a militaristic jingoistic clunker when they made that decision.
    It is even worse now.
    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.

  25. Although it won’t make a scintilla of difference to the outcome of the ICAC hearing, Berejikilian is a very astute politician. Whereas others alleged to have acted corruptly are very camera shy, she smiles and speaks to the assembled journos, in the hope that the public will remain loyal, just in case she has a tilt at federal office.

    In my view, however, she’s damaged goods, no matter the ICAC outcome. And the Tory Feds will be very pissed with her for being so sloppy with her choice of boy friend, who’s responsible for exposing the arbitary way public money is allocated.

  26. DN,

    Albo doesn’t need to do any more than he’s doing right now.

    Morrison will come back a diminished figure after Glasgow and there are plenty of media commentators singing the “liar” song now.

    If Morrison has lost the confidence and trust of world Leaders and allies, how does he purport to be a suitable representative of Australia in world forums.

    Does Morrison call an Election immediately on return or does he wait for the almost inevitable challenge to his Leadership?

  27. William – great work (as always) on the Federal election guide. Just a small quibble, assuming no one else has already pointed it out. Macquarie is a seat based on the Blue Mountains and parts of far western Sydney, not eastern, as indicated above. Sydney doesn’t really have an “eastern fringe” – it’s be too wet!

    Agree that NSW is probably where the election will be won and lost. Recent polling suggests a 7.5% 2PP swing to Labor from 2019, which would bring into play Reid, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks and Bennelong. Meanwhile, as noted above, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Hunter, Macquarie, Dobell and Greenway are all held by Labor on margins of less than 3%, and so at risk of going the other way.

    Labor needs a minimum of six or seven seats to get a working majority (68 currently held + 6-7 wins + Greens-held Melbourne, and Wilkie’s Denison = 75/76). Big swings in the west should deliver Swan, and Hasluck and Pearce are also well winnable, while Bass in Tassie and Chisholm in Victoria should also be gains. Queensland has some big margins to pull back in, but Longman, Leichhardt, Dickson, Brisbane and Ryan are all within reach.

    The upside of ALP expectations should be around 15 seats, and the low side probably about three, and the likely outcome, as things stand right now, is somewhere between six and nine seats. The real risk for Labor is getting decent enough swings, but not enough to reel in the margins that blew out in 2019.

  28. phoenixRED says:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 1:24 pm
    The Look ……

    Given this has happened before before it smells like a publicity stunt on their part

  29. There is an opinion piece on the ABC Website today headed “How the RBA allowed Australia to become a servant to property prices in a $9 Trillion market”

    The article commences “A decade ago, when Main Street was forced to bail out Wall Street and taxpayers around the world stumped up trillions of dollars to save commercial banks and the entire capitalist system, it was all the justification that was required

    The banks, they said, were too big to fail”

    In Australia with its “Big 4 ” and 6 Pillars having been (inappropriately) transitioned to 4 Pillars (by Howard) to accommodate the “Big 4” entering the Life Insurance sector and the superannuation accrual industry they were prohibited to enter by acquisition under 6 Pillars, and globally, banks are indeed too big to fail.

    Their position in society and the reliance of society on them is the reason.

    We put our money into deposits with a bank.

    We, as individuals, borrow from banks to buy a house (over 25 years or more) and purchase other consumer items, such as vehicles.

    Business borrows from banks, subject to Annual Review confirming the Risk Grading (which drives the pricing).

    The banks fund by Capital & Reserves, subordinated debt coupons offered and priced on risk (so the integrity of the Balance Sheet) and by the funds we deposit with our banks.

    Yes, there are fringe lenders, but the Big 4 in Australia are dominant.

    Look at their capitalization – and compare.

    They are indeed too big to fail.

    Noting Capital Adequacy Ratios (and liquidity ratios) they abide by, by Global measures.

    So banks are assessed as the businesses they lend to are assessed.

    And they are Public Companies.

    In 2008, the Federal Government endorsed subordinated debt coupons, charging the banks for this assistance.

    This facilitated the transacting of paper on fractured Global Capital Markets (including roll over of maturing instruments, and the pricing).

    This was all, however, separate to the house price issue.

    The house price issue commenced in the year 2000, and the introduction of the GST resulting in a negative quarterly GDP with the prospect of a second successive negative reading (so a GST induced recession – 2 successive negative GDP readings)

    To avert this the government of the day gave impetus to the construction industry, by direct First Home Owner Grants and by other measures including thru the tax system.

    And the Bunsen Burner under house prices and investment in housing because of the lagging performance of the ASX over successive years – 5.14% to 30/06/2001 MINUS 7.65% to 30/06/2002 then MINUS 5.19% to 30/06/2003 – (reflecting the mismanagement and economic decay of the Nation ahead of the Mining Boom Phase 1 from 2004 -> 2007 both inclusive and during which period the ASX had annual gains to the order of 20%, so a “fool’s gold” period) became a raging bush fire.

    RBA 10 Year data underpins this analysis.

    In January 1990 the amount we owed to our home mortgage lenders (so our banks) was $118 Billion.

    In January 2000 the amount we owed to our home mortgage lenders was $355 Billion.

    In January 2010 the amount we owed to our home mortgage lenders was $1.226 Trillion. An increase of a lazy 250% increase in one (truncated courtesy of the GFC) calendar year.

    And Australia and Australians had a problem – as did and has the RBA.

    Total Private Debt over the period went from $320 Billion, to $662 Billion to $1.923 Trillion (so including business).

    Hence why our banks are too big to fail.

    The figures talk.

    And this increase in Private Debt has driven house pricing.

    Since the year 2000 (noting the GFC saw banks basically withdraw from lending, so the figures from 2000 until 2010 are actually from 2000 until 2007).

    Since the GFC, the Cash Rate has been where it has been.

    It has not moved for a raft of reasons, starting with the impact of the GFC (which was and is enduring), the gradual recovery from the GFC being abruptly halted by the 2013 “Horror Budget”, based on ideology not the impact on households and business, the absence of wages growth (and inflation) for 8 years now and then along comes the economic impact on households and business of a Pandemic (noting the botched economic response of the Federal Government confirmed by Jobkeeper housing on the Balance Sheets of Companies which increased turnover whist a cohort of households did not qualify for support including being forced to their superannuation accruals)

    Further, the Federal Government, driven by its right wing ideology of austerity delivering confidence and that confidence trickling down, has done nothing more and nothing less than announce a “Future Fund” for project investment.

    There has been no spend by this Federal government.

    The RBA has exclusively done the heavy lifting by QR, keeping our financial markets (yes, our banks again) liquid – and lending.

    The under performing ASX (by Global performance measures noting AUD variations) has acted as a catalyst for property prices as it did in the year 2000 – and remains.

    The equation of ASX versus property as an investment strategy remains.

    And that is what households assess when reviewing investment

    Where is the long term advantage of Negative Gearing maximized – thru Equities (the Big 4 returning – again – 7% PA inclusive of Franking Credits) or thru property noting where valuation increases are?

    And which of those 2 choices is most beneficial to the Nation?

    Investing in Companies which transact in the economy (and globally), providing employment?

    Or a house in your name with a tenant?

    Leave Cash out, because it returns nothing (and that is its own commentary)

    These are just some of the considerations.

    And they all sheet home to the same common factor – that government is ideology.

    Including the privatization of public assets, adding to private debt.

    So “small government”, “free markets” (whatever they are because nothing is for free), funding tax cuts for a cohort and austerity delivers confidence and that confidence will trickle down.

    Along with the most effective form of regulation is self regulation (to the benefit of who exactly?)

    In summary, the RBA has not been the driver of house prices.

    The Federal government, circa 2000 until 2007 and then from 2013 until today, has been the driver of house prices (and private debt).

    The RBA has just been cleaning up the mess – and protecting households in the absence of wage increases (and ever growing household debt) thru the Cash Rate.

    Given the relationship between private debt and GDP, it could be put that the Australian economy is private debt, its growth and its servicing.

    The fix is long term, very long term because it is contingent on wages growth exceeding band inflation and a stabilization of house prices as those house prices impact our younger generations and next generations (so, if you wish to bid up to enter East Melbourne, you do so because that market is not reflective of the average household being those establishing a home for their family).

    There is of course inter generational wealth – but that again is a selective cohort.

  30. Mavis @ #276 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 1:02 pm

    Berejiklian’s statement following the ICAC’s adjournment

    Self-serving rubbish.

    And shows a remarkable lack of comprehension regarding the difference between people doing it tough through no fault of their own and those “doing it tough” because they chose to ignore and/or participate in corrupt conduct.

  31. Labor fucked up pretty bad in 2019 and only lost by a small margin. My question to sceptics like mundo is: do you really think Labor will do worse than/the same as 2019?

  32. From the Guardian’s blog:

    ‘The Nationals leader has been asked “what did [he] get” when going into the room to discuss Austalia’s plans to combat the climate crisis.

    A whole range of things. Farms. Scope 3 emissions so the new exports sitting on that train so that we don’t account for where it lands in the world. You don’t have to pick up those emissions.

    We talked about reviews. There are so many issues coming through where things weren’t implicit, we made them explicit. The sort of things that were floating around. You all heard about it. Methane emissions. They said it and said it probably the day after we came to the deal. They said that over in the United States and Europe, they’re talking about a 30% reduction by 2030.

    How am I going to sell that one to the beef industry? How would that have worked? Well, we would be putting them out of a job. But the Nationals went in to bat so we wouldn’t destroy. But we would get a better deal.

    We were going to be negotiators, not demonstrators, getting a better deal for regional Australians.’
    ——————————————-
    This person is the fucking acting Prime Minister! He is fucking worse than the fucking incumbent. How bad is that?

  33. GG

    I am still convinced that Albo can get across the line while being fairly a underwhelming candidate for PM, just because of how bad the government is.

    As for the recent media commentary that Labor is under pressure to release its own climate policies, doesn’t stand for anything, isn’t providing a realistic alternative etc. – bullshit. They can hold off much longer. Leaving it late to release policy is what the Coalition does best, and Labor would be wise to do the same for once.

  34. RE Albo’s MPI speech.

    When he is “on,” he is very compelling and passionate. For some reason, he’s so hit or miss with his speeches, press conferences, and media interviews. Sometimes he’s great, sometimes he’s terrible.

  35. Late Riser:

    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 2:21 pm

    [‘(3) I expect the right wing press to swing in behind Morrison on nationalistic grounds.’]

    Most likely. Dutton has already said that Macron is playing to his domestic audience given an election’s due in France in April (1st round), though it’s going to be hard for Morrison to avoid the perception of being unable to lie straight in bed.


  36. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 11:59 am
    lizzie @ #187 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 11:58 am

    If Gladys is being honest about her lack of suspicions about McGuire’s activities and his poor character, she is far too naïve to be the leader of NSW.

    This point goes to the nub of her argument. She’s trying to make us believe that she was naive enough to have had no suspicions about Maguire but smart enough to be Premier.

    Like Forrest Gump?

  37. Ven @ #295 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 2:40 pm


    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 11:59 am
    lizzie @ #187 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 11:58 am

    If Gladys is being honest about her lack of suspicions about McGuire’s activities and his poor character, she is far too naïve to be the leader of NSW.

    This point goes to the nub of her argument. She’s trying to make us believe that she was naive enough to have had no suspicions about Maguire but smart enough to be Premier.

    Like Forrest Gump?

    Life is like a box of clay pigeons….

  38. The Pacific Islands Forum secretary general has welcomed climate commitments by Australia and New Zealand heading into COP26.

    How very diplomatic. Realistically, Australia has promised nothing.

  39. a r:

    Monday, November 1, 2021 at 2:31 pm

    Mavis @ #276 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 1:02 pm

    [‘Self-serving rubbish.’]

    Of course it is but many think she’s been dealt a bad hand and they’ll continue think that even if she goes down.

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