This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
OIC: Office of Islamic Cooperation? Office of the Information Commissioner (Qld)? Officer in Charge?
Albo has lost a lot of pudge!
Albo’s dog is so use to his master stopping for a chat he obediently sits & scopes the surrounds.
Our 4yo grandson had a Covid test on Thursday night (result negative). He had cold symptoms and his parents thought it best to check.
To him, being poked and prodded by medicos is exciting including injections, taking blood samples and now the Covid test. Something to tell his preschool classmates next week.
The Covid R(eff) figure for NSW is creeping back up, estimates now centring on 0.95, up from the mid 70s a couple of weeks ago. Victoria is also up, from the mid 70s to about 0.84.
https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html
Steve777 says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 9:34 am
OIC: Office of Islamic Cooperation? Office of the Information Commissioner (Qld)? Officer in Charge?
_____________________
Oh I see!
Oh lookey, its a Saturday morning and P1 has her tory pom poms on display and Steam dildo has a cultcha war to prosecute (‘cause we all know that the way to deal with mentally ill persons at risk of self harming is shackles) …
Groundhog … much?
OIC! Never really learned Internet slang, nor how to quickly type on my iPhone with two thumbs.
”
Dawn Patroller:
Laura Tingle, in this long essay, describes how Morrison returned home from Glasgow a significantly reduced figure at home and abroad.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-06/morrison-glasgow-trip-climate-change-national-security-questions/100598788
”
Tingle: “the relationship with the French saw the US President publicly disowning the process; the Prime Minister was not able to have a meeting with Joe Biden at two major international summits; and Australia leaked an American national security document in an effort to try to prove the US was “in” on the deceit of the French.
This was all in addition to the PM apparently leaking a text message from Macron which will do little to make other world leaders trust him in future.”
Tingle also writes how ALP has tied itself in knots in order not to be critised by LNP.
From this article it clear that On National security and Climate change issues Australia is in deep shit.
Good to see Labor stooges finally according Albo the same reverence they had for Littlefinger. It wasn’t always that way remember:
C@tmomma
says:
Monday, April 23, 2018 at 4:04 pm
Rex Douglas,
Take it from me, Albo as leader of the FPLP would be a disaster.
This “Australian Way” pitch is telling the voting public that we are a nation of leaners, not lifters after all.
Get on board with Morrison and you don’t have to hold a hose either 🙂
Day 5 of Sarah in Scotland!
‘GREENWASH’ COP26 news: Greta Thunberg blasts climate summit as a ‘failure’ in scathing George Square speech
GRETA Thunberg blasted COP26 as a “failure” as she spoke at George Square’s COP26 rally.
The eco champion joined today’s Fridays for Future march from Kelvingrove Park to the city centre.
But she blasted world leaders and accused them of “radical” inaction in front of thousands of fans and schoolkids.
Cops set up a ring of steel around the city centre square as tens of thousands listened to the activist.
It comes as up to 150,000 eco campaigners are expected to march through Glasgow on Saturday as part of a massive climate change procession.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/7898995/cop26-news-greta-thunberg-failure/
citizen @ #502 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 9:44 am
Bless. 🙂
It’s unsurprising that Steelydan would be capable of comprehending the symbolism of seeing Cleo’s alleged abductor in shackles. Even for the most violent of criminals, handcuffs and
an escort of four burly police normally suffices.
”
AUKUS was awkward but Emmanuel Macron is no saint, writes Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/aukus-was-awkward-but-emmanuel-macron-is-no-saint-20211102-p595fw
”
Macron never claimed he is a saint in contrast to Morrison who claims devine intervention for his 2019 election victory. Isn’t it true that a person is canonised (i.e. made saint) when a person performs miracle?
AUKUS is not just awkward but may not be as flashy as it looks.
With Biden refusing to meet Morrison at G20 and COP26 meets, doesn’t it show how much importance Biden is giving to AUKUS partner?
You can’t argue with this logic:
Margaret Buckley
@MsMargB2
Surely leaving coal in the ground is the pre-eminent form of carbon capture?
DisplayName @ #477 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 9:16 am
Some journalists do, but it has to be said an overwhelming number of them are calling bullshite on Scotty’s plan.
Time for Albo to make hay.
”
Crispin Hull reckons Morrison’s “Australian Way” was better as an airline magazine. He says, “I used to think that the Australian way meant people being hard-working, realistic and practical with no bullshit. The original Australian way decried bludgers, expected everyone to do their fair share and required a bit of effort and sacrifice. Under Morrison’s Australian Way, we can continue with new coal mines, coal exports and pretty much business as usual while the rest of the world does the heavy lifting.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7498221/the-pms-australian-way-was-better-as-an-airline-magazine/?cs=14264
”
So what Crispin Hull is implying is that Australia under stewardship of Morrison is a country of leaners instead of Lifters.
So now we have now trashed even that core belief of LNP.
Although Lurker is disgusted with that depiction, we can understand why Rowe is showing LNP politicians without clothes
lizzie @ #476 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 8:37 am
Husic should be wheeled out as often as possible.
Fossil fuel companies are now arguing that they need extra funds to help them to prepare for changes because of global emissions. They have known it was coming for years and some have even admitted they knew. Unbelievable hubris.
”
hungrier” if it is to have any chance of taking government back from the Coalition, with opposition frontbencher Ed Husic warning his colleagues they can’t play too nice after three election losses in a row, writes Katina Curtis.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tougher-stronger-hungrier-labor-frontbencher-urges-his-party-to-fight-hard-for-election-20211105-p596dz.html
”
mundo will like this. 🙂
“Honestly, I don’t get the point.”
***
It’s pretty cringe TBH.
I don’t mean Albo walking the dog, I mean the reaction to what is a rather unnatural looking and obviously staged photo. It looks like the photographer would have had to be lying or sitting on the ground near the dog to be able to take the shot at that angle.
This photo taken with the same people in it looks far more natural. They obviously took a few in different poses and situations to see what worked and what didn’t.
‘Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look.
He thinks too much. Such men are dangerous.’
Albanese has lost a lot of weight, eh? 🙂
Andrew_Earlwood @ #505 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 9:46 am
And A_E has his usual load of bile to disgorge.
Groundhog Day indeed.
”
Peter van Onselen begins this contribution with, “Will the economy be front and centre during next year’s federal election campaign? That is the only question that matters. If not, Scott Morrison doesn’t have a pathway to victory, given how small his parliamentary majority is and how strongly broader issues are running against him.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/coalitions-pathway-to-reelection-narrows/news-story/6cc750d154ad08d991b4888dde2a41e7
”
What economy PVO is talking about? Our economy is smashed with Pandemic and continuous lockouts. This government recorded biggest debt and deficit ever by an Australian government. People cannot afford to buy homes. Petrol is its most expensive at the bowsers. Hospitality and Tourism industries are smashed. Airline industry is smashed.
Our export industry with our biggest exporter is on the verge of collapse.
I don’t suppose the average voter (or the majority) cares about this kind of detail. It’s a great shame, but here we are.
Ed Husic is 100% spot on the money:
C@tmomma @ #525 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 10:22 am
How ironic, since Labor has adopted every climate change policy the Coalition has ever even considered adopting.
#mehToo 🙁
”
The man accused of raping Brittany Higgins has been committed to stand trial in the ACT Supreme Court and is due to face court again on November 18.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/man-accused-of-raping-brittany-higgins-is-committed-to-trial-20211105-p596ab.html
”
My question to AE/Mavis/shellbell or other members of legal fraternity on PB is
Why did it take such a long time to commit to trail the alleged accuser of such high profile case?
It appeared to me even his name was not mentioned in the press for a longtime.
It appeared to me he was protected by some powerful forces.
Why didn’t Yabba get his photo taken with Albo?
Presumably too unatural looking for a “community photo” – leader meets citizens and peasants pic ?
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 10:22 am
Ed Husic is 100% spot on the money:
Mr Husic urges his colleagues to remember the 2019 loss and “without blinking” stick to the plan to release the bulk of the policies during the campaign proper.
“Some will say my prescription is too negative, we need to pump out positive policies to contrast the government,” he says.
“Why right now? So they can steal the ones they like, and beat us over the head with ones they don’t? No, thank you.
_________________________________________
It would be nice if they did steal some. The fact is that with this government and its total lack of interest in the public interest, every Labor policy is just an opportunity to sow fear, uncertainty and doubt – just like they did in 2019.
Husic is dead right on everything else. Leave it to the election campaign. Give the bastards as little fuel as possible to create smoke to obscure Labor policies.
The simple fact is – unfortunately – that most of the voting public don’t get policy any more. All they care about is what’s in it for them and what will hurt them – and decades of media hype, Liberal lies and Labor missteps (previously called being honest with the electorate) have conditioned them to think that Labor policies will only hurt them.
The next election can only be won if it is a referendum on the current government. Not on Labor policies. I wish it were otherwise, but we have to live with what we have.
Re the pic of Albanese, it looks like three generations of Labor women and he’s looking rather dapper.
George Megalogenis writes that Morrison has wedged himself on climate – and opened a door for Labor. He says, “it’s time to talk about Anthony Albanese, and his ambition for climate change policy. The Labor leader has reached the inflection point in the electoral cycle where he must choose between truce and attack.”
————–
No other option? How about selling the need for greater ambition. Something like “we recognise the need for greater ambition, but we cant do it without Australia and Australians onboard”. Then coordinating a coalition of willing partners from business, industry, farming, regions and city (and centre right independents) to introduce mechanisms with the government of the day. Because the only reason this sh!tshow has been doing the merrygrounds (al la Billy Birmingham doing Murray Walker) for decades is because of the festering division fertilised by the LNP and partly by others. You cant win this debate and institute real change with even 60% of people in favour if the 40% are rabidly against and many of the 60% wont vote accordingly. You need to get into power, build stuff that cant be torn down and let people make money out of the change so that they then lobby the LNP b@stards to keep their hands off it the next time they come to power.
It is the LNP that NEED climate policy to be a point of difference. They NEED the culture wars and the hate it delivers. They hold the cards in a culture war – they have the megaphones.
The only way the ALP can win an election based on Climate Change (2007 was a one off chance that slipped through) is if enough independents win Liberal seats and then back the ALP. That is a twofold risk.
Morrisons net Z 2050 has almost erased climate change as an issue. Why would Albanese restart that fire? As much as I want the ALP to go big on policy commitments, I feel the wisest option is to just match Morrison and pledge to do more by 2030 if he can get a groundswell of stakeholders on board. Then, when he wins, just get on and build stuff (interconnectors, batteries, etc), make some short term incentives to get cheaper EVs into the country (standardise/match any subsidies across the states), and engage the regions to come up with economic packages that benefit more than just the mates of Coalition MPs.
And yes. Where it is obvious that local gas production will be around for another 10 years or more, look at CCS and offsets.
Mavissays:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 10:00 am
It’s unsurprising that Steelydan would be capable of comprehending the symbolism of seeing Cleo’s alleged abductor in shackles. Even for the most violent of criminals, handcuffs and
an escort of four burly police normally suffices.
Please tell me when you have ever I mean ever seen a violent criminal walking with Police Officers never because it never happens. Just one… some underworld figure or a violent murderer, nah I thought not. Cells to car, car to cells only. You don’t allow the truth to get in the way of making a point though.
Ven
He was only charged a couple of months ago so getting through the committal stage by this time is pretty quick particularly in the ACT which is not regarded as the speediest jurisdiction in Australia.
Firefox says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 9:55 am
Notwithstanding SHY’s grandstanding, the Greens will holler for the LNP this election season.
“The big news of the day is a potato as big as a dog.”
Doug. 🙂
Doug, an ugly ‘self-sown’ New Zealand potato the size of a small dog, could be world’s biggest
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-04/doug-the-ugly-new-zealand-potato-could-be-world-s-biggest/100596064
Player One says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 10:30 am
Husic understands implicitly that the gratification of the degraded mind of a Labor-phobic bludger is not a winning strategy.
Looks smaller than the big potato in Robertson
Jaeger
What got me riled was the importance placed on this rather than any other news. It’s in line with News Breakfast framing itself as a social event rather than a news service.
”
DisplayNamesays:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 8:17 am
And then there’s this from Crowe:
The political pain was not a series of stumbles by Morrison. It was inflicted on him by a force he could not control.
Right. He couldn’t control his lying to France, or how he responded to their obvious anger (i.e. victim blaming). Got it. Thanks for letting us know he’s a pathalogical liar.
”
Isn’t one of the core beliefs of LNP after 1996 elections is Victim blaming elegantly phrased as “Leaners and Lifters”?
Steelydan @ #532 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 10:36 am
Martin Bryant wasn’t chained up.
”
mundosays:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 8:32 am
“People in focus groups are starting to criticise Morrison spontaneously … For Anthony Albanese, it’s a different kind of absence – a lack of political impact.”
.
Bingo.
George Megalogenis writes that Morrison has wedged himself on climate – and opened a door for Labor. He says, “it’s time to talk about Anthony Albanese, and his ambition for climate change policy. The Labor leader has reached the inflection point in the electoral cycle where he must choose between truce and attack.”
.
Double bingo.
”
We have Bingos galore today. 🙂
Lars Von Trier @ #263 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 10:33 am
What the fuck are you blathering about, you halfwit? You specialise in verbal diarrhoea, but this effluvium is really too runny and mephitic to even begin to process. I recommend more fibre.
Lizzie,
The photograph tells a great story, in fact several great stories.
● Albo looks trim, taut and terrific, not like the balding tub of lard that is Morrison. He is dressed comfortably and stylishly without shouting out loud about it.
He’s smiling naturally, not grimacing for a staged two-shot photo opportunity at some fundraiser. He’s not grabbing at the woman’s arm like a drowning man trying to look democratic. He’ just enjoying some time out in the fresh air.
● Contrast this with a typical Morrison photo. Nothing about the Albo photo is staged.
There are no hard hats, hangers on, staffers, journos, excuse-makers, sleeve-tuggers, media managers, visible cameras or microphones. The dog couldn’t give a stuff who’s holding the lead. Neither could the fisherman, or the other woman walking by.
But without their presence in the composition – telling a story of an decent bloke walking a dog and talking one-on-one with a ordinary member of the public, while the rest of the world goes by about its business – there would be no story worth telling.
● The geometry of the composition in itself is almost perfect, first drawing your eye to Albo, then to the other elements in the image listed above. So it’s pleasing to look at, as well as telling a good story.
In case you think the analysis above is superficial and puts too much emphasis on “shallow” aspects of politics, such as clothes and appearances, I urge you to remember that probably most people don’t read the written story, but will look at the picture and be affected by it as they flip through a newspaper, or cook their tea while watching the news on TV.
Appearances are vitally important, and a photograph like this one tells a good yarn about an authentic bloke who wants to be PM, but who doesn’t have too many tickets on himself.
Albanese should find whoever took that photo and hire them on the spot.
Ven @ #523 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 10:18 am
Presumable Labor could mention some of these things without giving too much away?
Otherwise it’s the Joshy You Beaut Economy Show from now to polling day.
Bushfire
I bow to your superior analysis. I admit that every pic of Morrison makes my blood boil, and that one of Albo didn’t.
Ven @ #519 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 10:12 am
Indeed I do!
Player One says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 10:30 am
The pic of Albo standing still and listening is excellent. His clothes, his slimmed-down physique, his relaxed posture and facial expression, the attention he’s giving to an Everywoman voter, the outdoor location, the dog, the passerby-in-motion…..Great pic.
He’s not an attention-seeking politician in hi-viz; not driving a fire truck or a haulpak; not making empty announcements; not foaming at the parliamentary mouth; not pouring beer over himself; not wearing an Akubra and RM Williams boots….he’s from the midst of suburban life.
Clever…..very clever.
”
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 9:09 am
First you do the damage and then you try to bodgie up a fix.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/06/australian-foreign-minister-seeks-to-allay-south-east-asia-fears-that-nuclear-submarines-will-stir-up-conflict
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.
”
She will not be able to do it in short term especially after President Joko gave cold shoulder to our PM reportedly once when PM was returning from UN summit in September after meeting Biden and then at G20 and COP26.
Rudd’s use of visual settings in 2006 and 2007 was outstanding. Absolutely there best seen up until then. Hopefully Albo can apply the same principles this time.
He looks very authentically like an “Everyman”.
In an era where the “political” is very deeply discounted, being utterly de-politicised is doubtless an advantage. There are few things less political than taking a pet dog for a walk.