This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Tidal pool at half tide on my morning walk. Greens and pink.
Bushfire Bill says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 10:49 am
____________________________
In summary, ‘Labor, we’re on your side’.
Oh, and the photo does not look staged.
Firefox writes:
Firefox picks the staged version, the formal “photo op”… “Have YOUR pic snapped with the Leader”.
I’m actually disappointed that he would pick the staged one. I thought Firefox was more sophisticated than that. But it says a lot about the perceptions in some people’s minds of what “natural” looks like in politics today.
Henri Cartier-Bresson would be turning in his grave. He knew the faces in the crowd were just as vital to the story as the VIP.
“Albanese should find whoever took that photo and hire them on the spot.”
***
Probably already works for the ALP I’d imagine. Someone was obviously following him round taking all these photos, so you’d want to hope they were getting paid for it. Probably part of his campaign team. Nothing wrong with that either BTW but it really is a terribly unnatural looking shot. The second one of the same people which I posted above is much better. They would have taken thousands of photos of him, as all photographers do, the vast majority of which we will never see.
BB
That Cartier-Bresson picture is wonderful.
ff
Nothing wrong with that either BTW but it really is a terribly unnatural looking shot.
______________________________________
Why do you think it is ‘unnatural’?
“Firefoxpicks the staged version”
***
Which manages to look far more natural than the similarly staged one taken from ground/dog-level. Photos like that where everyone lines up and smiles at the camera look normal. That’s the kind of photo you’d expect to see when Albo goes and talks to Labor-friendly voters. I can see what the photographer was trying to do in the photo with the dog in it but it just looks odd.
“Why do you think it is ‘unnatural’?”
***
Because of the the angle it’s taken from. The camera looks like it was even lower to the ground than the small dog lol. Are we meant to think there was another small pooch there that took the photo rather than a human? It just looks odd that’s all.
”
Firefoxsays:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 10:16 am
“Honestly, I don’t get the point.”
***
It’s pretty cringe TBH.
I don’t mean Albo walking the dog, I mean the reaction to what is a rather unnatural looking and obviously staged photo. It looks like the photographer would have had to be lying or sitting on the ground near the dog to be able to take the shot at that angle.
This photo taken with the same people in it looks far more natural. They obviously took a few in different poses and situations to see what worked and what didn’t.
”
I am Lurker question. Is by any chance c@tmomma in the vicinity of these photos? 🙂
My apologies if I offended you by asking this question.
Ven Isn’t it true that a person is canonised (i.e. made saint) when a person performs miracle?
You have to perform two, which are thoroughly investigated by a “Devil’s Advocate” and declared genuine. Also be dead, preferably for several decades or more.
And our very own Max Dupain knew all about photograph geometry for effect:
But this is one of my favourites, I could look at it all day and find so much in it:
“I am Lurker question. Is by any chance c@tmomma in the vicinity of these photos?
My apologies if I offended you by asking this question.”
***
No.
Re Ven @11:15. Now that’s a good photo.
Location: Terrigal I think.
Is by any chance c@tmomma in the vicinity of these photos?
No. I was asked to go and I would have but I had a prior engagement in Sydney to go to. Anyhoo, I’m not very photogenic, at the best of times! 😆
And there was this one as well with some of the local wildlife and our candidate 🙂
“And there was this one as well with some of the local wildlife and our candidate ”
***
That one also looks far more natural than the one with the dog in it.
”But this is one of my favourites, I could look at it all day and find so much in it”
Corner of George and Grosvenor Street, Sydney, probably 1930s?
”
shellbellsays:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 10:39 am
Ven
He was only charged a couple of months ago so getting through the committal stage by this time is pretty quick particularly in the ACT which is not regarded as the speediest jurisdiction in Australia.
”
shellbell
Thanks for that info. So he was charged couple of months ago. I will point a fact in your and other bloggers direction
“Jo Dyer
@instanterudite
·
10m
Hey, remember when we got that new taskforce for women back in March with Marise and Michaelia and Sussan and Karen and Anne, and it was going do lots of things, and some people said it was just a cynical announcement? Bet those critics are feeling really foolish now
”
So is it a coincidence that he was charged after the taskforce for women was formed “back in March with Marise and Michaelia and Sussan and Karen and Anne”?
Cartier-Bresson could take the ordinary and make it look extraordinary, without special lenses, exotic cameras, studios, lights or models. There are literally tens of thousands of his like this: taken with a simple snapshot camera while walking the streets.
We’re too inured to memes – such as the one that has the best and most spontaneous looking political snapshot as the one that is barely distinguishable from a photo opportunity with Santa Claus at the supermarket, or the political version of it, full of teeth, hi-viz, suits and ties, fake smiles, ersatz bonhommie and instant forgettability taken at a convention or a campaign whistle stop.
Steve777 @ #566 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 11:28 am
Nup. Kings Cross looking down to Potts Point:
Ven says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 10:58 am
”
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 9:09 am
First you do the damage and then you try to bodgie up a fix.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/06/australian-foreign-minister-seeks-to-allay-south-east-asia-fears-that-nuclear-submarines-will-stir-up-conflict
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.
”
She will not be able to do it in short term especially after President Joko gave cold shoulder to our PM reportedly once when PM was returning from UN summit in September after meeting Biden and then at G20 and COP26.
=======================
Exactly so.
Bystander,
Actually, I think the first photo is of Taylor Square, Darlinghurst.
The First Big Sub Fuck Up was trying to pick up a couple of South Australian seats with a $90 billion Sub Contract Fuck Up.
The Last Big Sub Fuck Up was the panic switcharoo.
The Next Big Sub Fuck up will be the moral panic by the Coalition to get a sub announceable for the next election.
EVERY.SINGLE.SUB.DECISION.THEY.MAKE.THEY.FUCK.UP.
No, my bad, Bystander. Two different but similar photos. 🙂
”
Mavissays:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 10:00 am
It’s unsurprising that Steelydan would be capable of comprehending the symbolism of seeing Cleo’s alleged abductor in shackles. Even for the most violent of criminals, handcuffs and
an escort of four burly police normally suffices.
”
Mavis
I think you maybe missing a point or two.
1. The Australian public has emotionally invested in Cleo’s abduction and finding.
2. Both LNP and ALP have invested politically in this story at state and federal level.
3. It was WA Labor government which did the shackling. Maybe they wanted to look tough on law and order. I remember Bob Carr being tough when it came to law and order.
Maybe I am naive because I don’t see How this is cultural war.
Kings Cross looking down to Potts Point
Sydney would be hardly recognisable to any time-traveller from before about 1950. They’d know the Harbour Bridge, Fort Denison, the outline of the Harbour and maybe some of the few buildings that haven’t been knocked down and replaced, but not much else.
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases rise for second day in a row
– New cases: 92,359 ………………… – New deaths: 2,326
– In hospital: 45,566 (-738)
– In ICU: 11,929 (-239)
774,471 total deaths now
The Coalition must be incredibly desperate if what they’re running with is a missing-person story that they truly had no involvement in whatsoever. Labor is stupid if it takes the bait and plays along. Hammer them on all the things they’re using Cleo to distract from, instead.
Singing Bloos @ #549 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 11:00 am
I think the ‘everyman’ thing is a bit overcooked.
‘mundo says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 11:54 am
Singing Bloos @ #549 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 11:00 am
Rudd’s use of visual settings in 2006 and 2007 was outstanding. Absolutely there best seen up until then. Hopefully Albo can apply the same principles this time.
He looks very authentically like an “Everyman”.
In an era where the “political” is very deeply discounted, being utterly de-politicised is doubtless an advantage. There are few things less political than taking a pet dog for a walk.
I think the ‘everyman’ thing is a bit overcooked.’
==============================
True. Morrison has daggydadded it to death.
The WA Labor government didn’t direct plod put a mentally disturbed- and it seems only at risk of harming himself – Aboriginal male in shackles and chains: that’s WA police’s default position when dealing with indigenous peoples. Right up there with transporting aboriginal women 300km in an non air-conditioned bull wagon in the model of summer.
The problems with plod and vulnerable minority communities isn’t restricted to WA: it’s universal and a blight on humanity.
The WA government – all governments – need to do better in reigning in the worst excesses of this plod mindset.
Of course, in uberland and elsewhere, these attitudes are largely popular, am I right steam dildo? right up until the time that plod goes against type and starts inflicting special treatment to ordinary (whitey) folk. Then the petite bourgeoise will bleat like ruptured choirboys at St Patrick’s.
‘a r says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 11:51 am
The Coalition must be incredibly desperate…’
————————————
Rabbits meet spotlight.
Has living with Barnaby turned Vikki Campion’s brain?
If you think Sydney has changed over the past 90 years try China over the past 20 years.
Where there were once Paddy Fields there are now Cities with 10’s of millions of inhabitants.
The transformation is nothing short of amazing.
How many Cities of over 10 million – and from what?
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 12:05 pm
The WA Labor government didn’t direct plod put a mentally disturbed- and it seems only at risk of harming himself – Aboriginal male in shackles and chains: that’s WA police’s default position when dealing with indigenous peoples. Right up there with transporting aboriginal women 300km in an non air-conditioned bull wagon in the model of summer.
The problems with plod and vulnerable minority communities isn’t restricted to WA: it’s universal and a blight on humanity.
The WA government – all governments – need to do better in reigning in the worst excesses of this plod mindset.
….’
==========================
Good post, IMO.
When people refuse to help themselves…
‘He looks very authentically like an “Everyman”’
***
Political photographers trying to capture the “everyman”!
Reminded me straight away of this scene from a classic Australian movie from 2000…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_QsSOMYI9Y
…which even features the then future and now former Senator Derryn Hinch!
But the two cops are my favourite part of the whole movie lol. The two actors absolutely nail their completely different portrayals of Aussie cops and complement each other so well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hc2KRTwPigc
“Get outa the car!” 😀
Not sure if this is sorted yet, but both the Sydney tram/traffic shots are Kings Cross. If nothing else, the Kings Cross Hotel is the give away, with its white stone balconies – top right in the first photo, bottom left in the second photo.
Sydneys tram system absolutely fucking useless Lib infrastructure.
Thanks, Itza. 😳
Poor old Albo. Can’t even take the dog for a walk and pose for a photo without firing up the haters.
lizzie @ #587 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 12:27 pm
Um, do they even realise we are bumping up against 90% of the population voluntarily vaccinated?
Rossmcg @ #592 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 12:44 pm
Haters gonna hate.
“Poor old Albo. Can’t even take the dog for a walk and pose for a photo without firing up the haters.”
***
Huh? What on earth are you talking about? Nobody is having a go at Albo over the photos.
Is that Albo’s dog anyway? Could belong to the lady he is talking to? Not sure but I’d guess she was the one walking it not Albo. If that is Albo’s dog tho I’m happy to be corrected on that. Not that it matters. The point is the photo just looks odd. The other photos look fine.
C@tmomma @ #589 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 12:43 pm
They’re great to look back on.
The second one is interesting is that it clearly shows the “X” of King’s Cross – the intersection of Darlinghurst Rd and Victoria St – with ‘Kings X Theatre’ sitting in the northern V, and with the top of William St at bottom left, with the policeman in the white helmet at its apex, and a rather posh convertible outside the Kings Cross Hotel. Bayswater Road is running off shot middle right, under the Capstan sign.
Sigh …. tick tock, tick tock…
Back from doing the shopping, I could not help notice the surreal headline of The Australian (…Fascist) decrying the lack of freedom in WA!
What a joke. I was over there a few weeks ago for work. Perth CBD was the most open and active place I have seen in Australia since March 2020.
When I heard and saw the residents of the Pacific Islands begging for understanding and help for their plight, I found it hard to believe that Morrison and his government could be so dismissive of their danger. But I suppose that’s no difference to the way he feels about his own citizens too, while he lies about keeping us safe.
@FF – Yes, it’s Albo’s dog.
I had just returned home from having a beer while sitting the bottom balcony of the building on the left of that picture.
C@t’s Robertson local member, Lucy Wicks. The header picture on her Facebook page, next to Scomo fondling some ‘plans’. Interesting to see how long Scomo remains on there next to her.