Save the date

Confusion surrounding the likely date of the New South Wales state by-elections, to add to that we already have about the federal election.

This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.

Here’s what we do know:

• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.

• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.

• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.

• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.

• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.

• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.

• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.

• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.

Poll news:

• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.

• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.

• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.

• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.

Also:

• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,799 comments on “Save the date”

Comments Page 13 of 56
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  2. “@FF – Yes, it’s Albo’s dog.”

    ***

    Ah fair enough, so it is. I just had a look and there are far better ones of Albo with that same dog that they could use. The angle in that one is just really odd.

    Here you go, much better…

  3. Firefox @ #601 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 1:06 pm

    “@FF – Yes, it’s Albo’s dog.”

    ***

    Ah fair enough, so it is. I just had a look and there are far better ones of Albo with that same dog that they could use. The angle in that one is just really odd.

    Here you go, much better…

    ” rel=”nofollow ugc”>

    Still with a wedding ring in that one; not in the others.

  6. This Pfizer antiviral sounds promising.

    At the recommendation of an independent Data Monitoring Committee and in consultation with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Pfizer will cease further enrollment into the study due to the overwhelming efficacy demonstrated in these results and plans to submit the data as part of its ongoing rolling submission to the U.S. FDA for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) as soon as possible.

    Press Release:
    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizers-novel-covid-19-oral-antiviral-treatment-candidate

    PAXLOVID™ is an investigational SARS-CoV-2 protease inhibitor antiviral therapy, specifically designed to be administered orally so that it can be prescribed at the first sign of infection or at first awareness of an exposure, potentially helping patients avoid severe illness which can lead to hospitalization and death. PF-07321332 is designed to block the activity of the SARS-CoV-2-3CL protease, an enzyme that the coronavirus needs to replicate. Co-administration with a low dose of ritonavir helps slow the metabolism, or breakdown, of PF-07321332 in order for it to remain active in the body for longer periods of time at higher concentrations to help combat the virus.

    PF-07321332 inhibits viral replication at a stage known as proteolysis, which occurs before viral RNA replication. In preclinical studies, PF-07321332 did not demonstrate evidence of mutagenic DNA interactions.

  7. “Still with a wedding ring in that one; not in the others.”

    ***

    They could easily “photoshop” the ring out if they wanted to use that photo in the future and they thought that might be a problem. I don’t see how it would be though. What has happened in Albo’s personal life is not anyone else’s concern. Ring or no ring it’s still a nice photo of him with his dog.

  8. It seems to me that Scotty came back from his trip with more pud around the middle, straining his suit buttons. But that might have been an optical illusion because the photo I saw wasn’t taken by pet photographer. 😆

  9. Looking at the photos of Sydney’s trams i notice that the cars are staying off the tram tracks this just wouldn’t happen in Melbourne.

  11. I like the photos of Albo and the dog, and they look much less staged than Morrison’s usual fare.

    However the mere fact Labor is putting out such photos means to me they must have increased confidence that Albo and Labor can win the next election now. Morrison’s week in G20 and COP26 was that bad I think they are right.

    This is not to take anything for granted. Any member of the Labor team could still screw up enough now, or in the campaign, for Labor to lose again 🙁

    But Morrison is running out of time to turn things around, and he certainly didn’t achieve that this week.

    I thought the ABC articles by Laura Tingle and Andrew Probyn were both accurately damning of our PM with the lying problem. It is hard to sell ice cream to eskimos when the eskimos don’t believe a word you are saying.

  12. On the political imagery thing:

    As I argued last week, politicians spend money and effort to construct their public image, making choices about everything from their clothing to their website photos. The audience for this performance — both the media and the voters — takes all of that in when we judge politicians’ authenticity, relatability and capability. The way that we interpret and respond to these framing decisions is sometimes surprising.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/opinion/the-politics-of-a-sleeveless-silhouette.html

  14. Mexicanbeemer @ #608 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 1:26 pm

    Looking at the photos of Sydney’s trams i notice that the cars are staying off the tram tracks this just wouldn’t happen in Melbourne.

    A bit of an artefact I think Mb. Sydney’s roads were particularly unsuitable to car / tram share especially when compared to Melbourne’s wider more planned roads. I don’t know if you know Sydney, but imagine trams through Paddington (you can hardly get a bus through these days), or Military Rd. As a child I remember being in my aunt’s Rover (hat and driving gloves; her, not me) and the angst when she got stuck on a tram rut.

  15. Ven:

    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 10:30 am

    [‘Why did it take such a long time to commit to trail the alleged accuser of such high profile case?’]

    Some investigations take longer than others, as in this guy’s case for there would probably be no forensic evidence linking him to the alleged rape. It thus boils down to her word against his. And it is normal procedure not to name a suspect in a rape case until a charge is laid.

  16. I agree about the Albo photos. I like them a lot. They’re saying more about being with the people, whereas Morrison seems incapable of anything other than lording it over the people, and it shows. From Princes to paupers, he just can’t cut it. No empathy, all ego. Writ large.

  18. C@tmomma @ #616 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 1:52 pm

    Was it one of these, Itza? 🙂

    Ha. Yeah, I’m that old; right-e-o! You’ll keep. You sent me looking …. something like this I remember.

    She was the classic aunt (one of three), strongly Irish, formidable, separated (hubby caught with the barmaid I think), gentleman companion (Frank), owned and ran a/the big pub in Leichhardt (never buy a house in a street with a hotel in it was the only real estate advice she ever gave me), the cops liked her, she ran a good house, and any trouble and a phone call from her and they were here lickety-split, and I loved and miss her dearly, kindred firey spirits ….

  19. More bullshit from Murdoch rag:

    High price for QLD Premier ‘asleep at the wheel’
    Federal Agriculture Minister blasts Annastacia Palaszczuk’s catch-up vax ‘gimmicks’, saying the states that have done the least are now paying for it.

    As if this federal govt has any credibility.

  20. [‘Vaccine rollout:

    NSW

    89.4% fully vaccinated; 93.8% first dose

    National

    79.6% fully vaccinated; 89% first dose

    Of the estimated population aged 16 and over.’] – SMH

  21. On Gladys and Daryl Maguire, this is an intereting story in Independent Australia.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/exclusive-icac-gun-club-figures-dont-add-up,15720#.YYWkkb_0QC0.facebook

    I don’t know how much substance there is to this, but the fact Maguire’s company had some personal financial involvement in the gun range project is interesting. Pork barreling is one thing, but Maguire’s personal obsession with this particular project always needed some explaining. No doubt we will find out more in future.

  22. The NSW opposition plans to introduce a private member’s bill to legislate the state government’s net zero by 2050 target, which the Coalition government is yet to write into law.

    Labor leader Chris Minns says the move will provide certainty for business and industry, and his party’s “very reasonable” bill “mirrors similar approaches already taken in Victoria and the ACT”.

    The NSW government is targeting a 50% reduction in 2005-level emissions by 2030, and net zero by 2050.

    The Labor bill seeks to make the targets law and establish a commission to ensure they are met, while seeking bipartisan support from premier Dominic Perrottet’s government to get through.

    (guardian)

  23. Oh Itza, I didn’t mean to cause you any emotional distress! I was meaning to suggest your aunt was the older member of the duo!

    Btw, my great grandmother, also Irish-Australian, was the local SP Bookie in Stanmore. 🙂

    Irish-Australian women are Tonka Tuff!

  24. C@tmomma @ #622 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 2:28 pm

    Oh Itza, I didn’t mean to cause you any emotional distress! I was meaning to suggest your aunt was the older member of the duo!

    Btw, my great grandmother, also Irish-Australian, was the local SP Bookie in Stanmore. 🙂

    Irish-Australian women are Tonka Tuff!

    Too right. Our lot were from Maynooth, then beyond the pale, and our only family tree of sorts a compendium of correspondence: Letters from Maynooth. And the aunt in question, Eileen Agnes, was a great race goer, twice a week in those days.

  26. Golly, my great-grandfather, another Irish-Australian, was publican and SP bookie in various western Qld towns. Even received an honourable mention in the Fitzgerald Inquiry report. Faced some difficulties converting his kitty to decimal currency…

  28. Stuart @ #414 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 6:53 am

    This is perhaps a little off-topic, but I found it interesting to see the accused in the Cleo Smith abduction case shuffling across the tarmac of the Canarvon airport, not in handcuffs, but in shackles. Surely the use of leg irons was hardly necessary? But then again, the sight of blackfellas in chains is historically a very Western Australian thing.

    WA police performed magnificently in solving the case, but the sight of shackles and chains was appalling in my view. Handcuffs surely would suffice with perhaps a sedative administered if required ..?

  30. ItzaDream @ #577 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 2:28 pm

    The NSW opposition plans to introduce a private member’s bill to legislate the state government’s net zero by 2050 target, which the Coalition government is yet to write into law.

    Labor leader Chris Minns says the move will provide certainty for business and industry, and his party’s “very reasonable” bill “mirrors similar approaches already taken in Victoria and the ACT”.

    The NSW government is targeting a 50% reduction in 2005-level emissions by 2030, and net zero by 2050.

    The Labor bill seeks to make the targets law and establish a commission to ensure they are met, while seeking bipartisan support from premier Dominic Perrottet’s government to get through.

    (guardian)

    Not sure why Minns is bothering with stunts like this re emissions when those who actually care about climate policy know they’re essentially same same.

    Minns should be on a daily rant re political integrity and how Labor’s focus is to clean up politics.

  31. Biden get’s his $1.2T Infrastructure bill passed. That’s a win.

    Sahil Kapur
    @sahilkapur
    ·
    Jul 29
    INFRASTRUCTURE DETAILS (per White House)

    —$40b bridges
    —$11b safety
    —$39b transit
    —$66b Amtrak/rail
    —$7.5b e-vehicle chargers
    —$5b clean buses
    —$17b ports
    —$25b airports
    —$50b water resilience
    —$55b drinking water
    —$65b broadband
    —$21b enviro remediation
    —$73b power/clean energy

  32. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 3:09 pm
    Biden get’s his $1.2T Infrastructure bill passed. That’s a win.
    ————————
    Praise be! If it had happened last week the Democrats might not have struggled so much with this week’s elections in VA and NJ, amongst others. I see there has been separate agreement between the Moderates and Progressives to pass the $2T social spending bill. The real test is whether Manchin or (more likely Sinema) start playing funny buggers on the details when it moves into the Senate.

  34. max @ #633 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 3:19 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 3:09 pm
    Biden get’s his $1.2T Infrastructure bill passed. That’s a win.
    ————————
    Praise be! If it had happened last week the Democrats might not have struggled so much with this week’s elections in VA and NJ, amongst others. I see there has been separate agreement between the Moderates and Progressives to pass the $2T social spending bill. The real test is whether Manchin or (more likely Sinema) start playing funny buggers on the details when it moves into the Senate.

    I just listened to a Politico podcast with Youngkin’s two campaign managers which was very insightful:

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/11/05/youngkin-mcauliffe-politics-virginia-strategy-2021-upset-analysis-519622

    Basically they said that their polling suggested that local Virginia issues were more important than national issues. The fight was to win back the Virginia suburbs that the Democrats had taken recently, and to that end, kitchen table issues, such as Cost of Living/Inflation and Education issues, like access to Gifted and Talented programs, which the Democrats wanted to phase out in place of equity for all, was very big as a vote switcher.

  35. ItzaDream says:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 1:42 pm
    Mexicanbeemer @ #608 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 1:26 pm

    Looking at the photos of Sydney’s trams i notice that the cars are staying off the tram tracks this just wouldn’t happen in Melbourne.

    A bit of an artefact I think Mb. Sydney’s roads were particularly unsuitable to car / tram share especially when compared to Melbourne’s wider more planned roads. I don’t know if you know Sydney, but imagine trams through Paddington (you can hardly get a bus through these days), or Military Rd. As a child I remember being in my aunt’s Rover (hat and driving gloves; her, not me) and the angst when she got stuck on a tram rut.

    I’m old enough to remember some tram rides in Sydney. We lived in the west but my grandmother had various relatives on the lower north shore. The highlight was catching the train to Wynyard underground station and then transferring to the tram, through the tunnel and across the harbour bridge on its own reserved tracks. Bliss! Of course that came to an end in 1958 when the tram tracks on the bridge were removed and two traffic lanes created, feeding into the Cahill Expressway over the top of Circular Quay.

  37. Interesting to see how some seem to be trying to support the stop PEP11 campaign now, even the Labor party, who actually facilitated it all to start with back in 2009-2010, between the the then NSW and federal Labor governments.
    First approvals for drilling all the way back in 2010.

    https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/researchpapers/Pages/offshore-petroleum-exploration-and-mining.aspx

    Has a report from Jan 2011, interesting but unsurprising to see ten years later how much community views were not listened to by the then NSW and Fed Labor governments. Who also refused to release the whole environment plan for full public scrutiny. How Auspol is that? Kristina Keneally and Albo were apparently part of the respective governments directly involved in that process.

    FWIW the Nats never let a chance go by to remind people that it was Labor that started most of the gas and CSG exploration shit in NSW, they were just following through and claimed they couldn’t do anything about stopping it, in the CSG wars around here.

    On 25 November 2010, Advent Energy acquired approval of its Environment Plan from Industry & Investment NSW (see Figure 6). This was followed by Commonwealth Government approval under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (Cth) on 9 December 2010. Drilling at New Seaclem-1 commenced on December 15 2010. Prior to completion of drilling, Advent Energy released an independent assessment that concluded that PEP11 “has all the working components of a gas-charged Hydrocarbon system and is a potential Giant Gas province” with an estimated 15.9 Tcf of recoverable gas (see Box 1).

    —-

    Community views

    PEP 11 has been the subject of substantial media coverage, most of which has been published in the regional paper adjacent to the location of PEP 11 – the Newcastle Herald. While the Newcastle Herald has allocated space to the Advent Energy position, including claims that offshore gas drilling in PEP 11
    could create “tens of thousands of jobs and generate billions of tax dollars”, the majority of the coverage has identified community concerns regarding offshore drilling. A coalition of community and environment groups, which included some local government councillors, opposed the offshore drilling for two reasons: they held “serious concerns about the potential for environmental damage to the coast and marine life”; and believed that governments must begin the transition to a “clean, renewable energy economy and away from the fossil-fuel economy.”

    Further concerns cited in media coverage include the lack of consultation conducted by Advent Energy (according to community groups and several Commonwealth MPs), and disappointment with the NSW Government’s decision to not release the entire Environment Plan to the general public.

  42. Firefox says:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 12:53 pm

    The pic of a man and a dog, seen thru the eye of a Cert 4 Cynic and trainee reactionary.

  43. ItzaDream says:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 12:56 pm

    C@tmomma @ #589 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 12:43 pm

    Thanks, Itza.

    They’re great to look back on.

    The second one is interesting is that it clearly shows the “X” of King’s Cross – the intersection of Darlinghurst Rd and Victoria St – with ‘Kings X Theatre’ sitting in the northern V, and with the top of William St at bottom left, with the policeman in the white helmet at its apex, and a rather posh convertible outside the Kings Cross Hotel. Bayswater Road is running off shot middle right, under the Capstan sign.

    Sigh …. tick tock, tick tock…

    —————————————————————————–

    Given the current problems with modern trams, it’s great to see again the Rolls-Royce of Sydney trams, the corridor, central-entry model that plied the eastern suburbs route between Queens’s Square and Watson’s Bay.

    As far as I can recall, I thought at the time it was the only service that used what I considered were the quietest trams with the most comfortable ride. Almost everywhere else, you had to use the “toast rack” rattlers with running boards down the length of the tram for the conductor to sell tickets. Passengers were the “toast” on facing seats in rows.

    Although I see in the picture above what looks like one of the good ones crossing the b ridge.

    As a very, very young messenger delivering flowers and theater tickets, I always looked forward to jobs that involved the “looxery” of those eastern suburbs trams.

    Bill Dobell lived down Darlinghurst Road at the Potts Point end, and as you rode the tram past the pub, just out of the picture on Bayswater Road to the right, on most days you might see Chips Rafferty on the footpath with schooner in hand.

  48. C@tmomma

    “It was the bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, already passed by the Senate. Just needs a signature from POTUS now. ”

    Excellent!

    Thanks for that correction.

    That’ll cause Miranda Devine some consternation.

  50. Hulls makes a good point…

    Rob Hulls
    @HullsRob
    ·
    26m
    Until an accused person has been found guilty of an offence, they must be afforded to the presumption of innocence. Parading an accused in shackles before the media, is not only a throwback to colonial times, but potentially undermines that presumption.

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