This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 2:59 pm
Labor move to put net-zero-2050 into law, and a Green-lite is opposed. Nothing, but nothing, is so predictable as the reflexive hostility to Labor from the dumb-fuck, self-admiring, self-gratifying pop-Left. The Greens and their interns, surrogates and proxies do not have freehold title to environmental politics. They are squatters and trespassers. They will be required to move on.
Not sure when it was taken but it does deserve a good caption 😆
You really have a one-track mind, Singing Bloos.
Rex Douglas
“I hope Albanese is watching how Joe Biden and Daniel Andrews just go about getting things done.”
Pretty hard to get things done when you’re in opposition.
I have no doubt he is taking note and will do similar when Labor under his leadership wins the next election.
Does that thought make you happy or sad?
Looking at your posts I think it would be the latter.
Asha says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 4:25 pm
Rex:
Er, given how things have gone so far, I’d hope Albo doesn’t try to emulate the Joe Biden presidency too closely.
_________________________________
At the very least, his program shouldn’t be held hostage by the idealists!
I really support what the progressives wanted in the USA and I’m sad they could not get more done. But one thing Biden learnt from the Obama administration is that achieving something big gets you kudos, even if you really wanted something a lot bigger! Hanging out for the best gets nothing and the public loses faith and turns to charlatans.
Provided Manchin and/or Sinema don’t do something bizarre this huge infrastructure deal will enable a lot of visible achievements for the Biden administration and the Democratic candidates if they can get moving quickly.
“The pic of a man and a dog”
***
Now I’m on the edge of my seat in anticipation of some in depth analysis of Man Campaigns With Dog from The Artist Formerly Known As Briefly.
poroti:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 4:27 pm
[‘Not sure when it was taken but it does deserve a good caption.’]
“Morrison to Macron: “I do the laying of hands around here, pal.”
The arrest of Ivan Milat.
Not a shackle in sight.
https://theivanmilatfiles.com/2019/12/08/footage-of-ivan-milat-getting-arrested-and-taken-into-custody-may-22-1994/
“Footage of Ivan Milat getting arrested and taken into custody, May 22, 1994
For two years, up until the trial, Ivan Milat’s face was hidden from the public. The press was forbidden to publish his photo. According to the detectives on the case, it came down on a matter of identification. If Milat was identified publicly it could jeopardize the prosecution.”
This woman has no shame and no sense of community. All she want is to destroy her perceived opponents.
Following the carnival spruiker’s reception in Glasgow and his blue with Macron, it’ll be of interest to see if Newspoll reflects a reduction in Morrison’s personal indicia.
SHY and Greta marching side-by-side!
Did Morrison’s presence make much difference to the outcomes of Glasgow in the end?
Carl Williams arrest:
https://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/news-photo/police-arrest-carl-williams-in-port-melbourne-he-is-a-major-news-photo/540156323
No shackles.
Pretty pathetic effort from WA Corrections.
Massive overkill, just to appease the media.
Don’t be surprised if this becomes an issue during the trial, as it portrays a perception that will stick in any jurors mind.
I note Steelydan tried to say that the shackles were to prevent self harm.
I work in a custodial environment were self harm is always an issue, and I can assure everyone that shackles are not used to prevent self harm, let alone as a prevalent form of restraint.
For someone to even think they may be shows a great misunderstanding of dealing with self harm issues.
I’m sure Steelydan is now embarrassed about that uninformed comment.
Rex Douglas @ #649 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 4:26 pm
Doesn’t it just?
lizzie @ #661 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 5:21 pm
Negatively, yes. And the G20.
Peta Credlin, in cahoots with Abbott, was the nearest thing to a dictatorship Australia has ever seen.
Fortunately his onion-eating stupidity made him a laughing stock, and she along with him.
Stop your lies, and grow up, Peta.
Phil Coorey….
Asha says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 4:27 pm
You really have a one-track mind, Singing Bloos.
Not really. But the eternal Labor-phobia of the Greens and their mimics is hard to ignore. I have never yet seen a pro-Labor remark from a Green. Never. I have been observing politics for more than 50 years. I know what I’m looking at.
The Greens purport to wish for reform in this country. Yet they campaign at all times against the only historically-successful reformist force in Australian politics. They detest Labor. I will never tire of pointing this out.
In theory, the stats on life expectancy indicate I should live for another 22-23 years. I hope this works out. Even so, given the split in the Labor-positive plurality, there is a very high probability I will never see another Federal Labor Government.
The split in the historical plurality is engineered and exacerbated by the Greens. They intend to keep Labor from office. They and the LNP will very likely succeed in this. This is matter of considerable regret. I have belonged to Labor since my teens and make no apologies whatsoever for agitating against such a baleful result.
Scenes from the demo in Melbourne today are troubling…
Firefox says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 4:32 pm
“The pic of a man and a dog”
***
Now I’m on the edge of my seat in anticipation of some in depth analysis of Man Campaigns With Dog from The Artist Formerly Known As Briefly.
There could be a thesis in that idea. But I’m too busy to write it.
Albo is going to be the antithesis of Morrison in every way. This might just work for him. I ardently hope so.
Shackles weren’t used for Ivan Milat til 2019 when he was transported to hospital.
“Not really. But the eternal Labor-phobia of the Greens and their mimics is hard to ignore. I have never yet seen a pro-Labor remark from a Green. Never. I have been observing politics for more than 50 years. I know what I’m looking at.”
***
The Artist never disappoints. 😉
I have been complementary of Labor many times here and as you know I even voted for them in the past. I’m also one of the only ones here willing to stick up for the Bandt/Gillard gov, since you guys would seemingly rather forget those three years ever happened (which is somewhat understandable from your perspective TBH considering all the Labor infighting during that time, but it did happen). I’m just not afraid to hold Labor accountable when they do they wrong thing or side with the Coalition either, which unfortunately happens all the time. Far too often Labor is part of the problem and that needs to change. They need to stop working with the Libs and start working with the Greens instead.
I still think Newscorp is going into overdrive attacking Malcolm Turnbull for calling Scott Morrison a liar. If it had been from Kevin Rudd or Julia Gillard on a Labor leader they would be rubbing there hands with glee. And suggesting this is proof there not to be trusted.
Graham Richardson even wrote an article also attacking Turnbull and putting him in the same vein as Rudd. He also slammed Rudd for bringing in the leadership rules. It was reported Richardson reached out to David Feeney and encouraged toppling Rudd. But then Richardson turned as fast as he could on Gillard when her polling sunk.
Richardson for all his experience is pretty clueless at times. If I had a choice of trusting the rank and file selecting the leadership or giving the power to number crunches who treat the Prime Minstership like a play thing like Richardson. I know which one I would choose.
Long live Rudd’s leadership reforms………………
My client who was a victim of a near fatal bashing from his cellmate in a private prison spent three weeks in a coma in Westmead hospital shackled to the hospital bed. His partner was not allowed to bring in her mobile phone to play some music to him in that state.
shellbell
That’s inhumane as well as stupid. Did they think he’d use the phone to plan an escape?
“My client who was a victim of a near fatal bashing from his cellmate in a private prison spent three weeks in a coma in Westmead hospital shackled to the hospital bed. His partner was not allowed to bring in her mobile phone to play some music to him in that state.”
***
Without knowing the rest of the details, I’d say that there should have been some compassion shown here for sure. Let her play him the music under supervision. If it’s the phone they’re worried about then use an MP3 player or something.
Re The protesters
I am dealing with OH in hospital and I am not allowed to visit thanks to the issues these idiots have created No visitors at all.
They were very concerned last night but much better today
“That’s inhumane as well as stupid. Did they think he’d use the phone to plan an escape?”
***
I’m guessing it would have had something to do with it being a phone. Surely it couldn’t be over just playing the music. But I don’t see how someone in a coma can do anything with a phone, so yeah there should have been an exemption on compassionate grounds.
Phil Coorey….
FMD.
I suppose a shill is gonna shill and having anything resembling a sense of self respect would only be a disadvantage, but still c’mon Phil, you gotta make it at least a little bit plausible. The Woman Who Saved Australia had a longer shelf life.
Lurker says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 6:08 pm
Singing Bloos says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 5:35 pm
In theory, the stats on life expectancy indicate I should live for another 22-23 years. I hope this works out.
_____________
Me too Briefly. But that’s a lot of pomposity and party fanaticism still yet to disgorge upon us. Lucky I have a strong constitution.
_____________
Kissinger said power was the ultimate aphrodisiac but it clearly helps with longevity (he’s 98) and has recently outlived his younger brother.
Dr Hastings Banda and Comrade Robert Mugabe are other examples.
laughtong @ 6.06:
Thoughts and hugs.
“Re The protesters
I am dealing with OH in hospital and I am not allowed to visit thanks to the issues these idiots have created No visitors at all.”
***
That’s pretty messed up. Some people are so selfish.
All the best.
ratsak @ #543 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 6:12 pm
Coorey is gay and hopelessly head over heels in love with Scotty.
There’s no other way to account for this.
Shellbell
Please describe “shackled”.
Was it handcuffs, ankle cuffs or that gear seen on the accused in WA?
All people in custody that are in a public hospital for treatment need some form of restraint to prevent their escape and to protect the staff and public.
Even comatose patients need them in case they come to quickly and freak out, unaware of their surroundings.
As you would know through your profession there are procedures regarding mobile phones in custodial situations.
Please stop trying to make a bad situation even worse.
You would have to be firmly implanted up Dotard’s arse to understand what ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ is all about – as it seems are some of the Melbourne protesters…
lizzie @ #676 Saturday, November 6th, 2021 – 6:02 pm
What a bunch of tossers those privileged men are!
And those wankers in Melbourne today are those men’s disciples.
So we are supposed to be guided by a bunch of smart arses now who know how to transcribe a RW internet meme to the Australian situation? That’s beyond pathetic.
Lovely post earlier from beguiledagain about Sydney trams, bit of a treasure on this site that man.
As for Phil Coorey, what the hell has happened to that guy, used to be relatively balanced with his political commentary, or maybe I wasn’t paying enough attention.
“You would have to be firmly implanted up Dotard’s arse to understand what ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ is all about – as it seems are some of the Melbourne protesters…”
***
Uhh yeah I like today’s protests in Glasgow much better. What is it that seems to attract all these strange far-right rallies to Melbourne? Even before Covid every so often there would be some far-right group marching through the streets of Melbourne about some whacko thing.
This article is from pre-Covid Jan 2019…
Why is Victoria the far-right protest capital of Australia?
Victoria has become the noisiest, most active battleground for far right-wing groups in Australia, so why has the state largely regarded as Australia’s most progressive become such a hot bed of this activity?
Saturday’s “Reclaim St Kilda” rally – organised by United Patriots Front leaders Blair Cottrell and Neil Erikson and attended by federal Senator Fraser Anning – is the latest headline-grabbing protest in a series of demonstrations by far-right groups in the state.
While extreme right political activism has long existed in Australia, many on both sides of the debate trace the current, noisy iteration of far-right dissent in Victoria to national “Reclaim Australia” rallies at Federation Square in 2015, and then protests against building Bendigo’s mosque later that year.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/why-is-victoria-the-far-right-protest-capital-of-australia-20190106-p50pue.html
Henry
Coorey has made a deal with the PMO.
It goes like this.
We will give you leaks into all things internal as long as you agree to paint us in a glowing light.
That sums it up.
”
Ashasays:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 4:27 pm
You really have a one-track mind, Singing Bloos.
”
I wonder why. Probably Quoll can explain one-track mind because SB sometimes discusses about painting, outdoors and poetry. But Quoll (so called Greens member) only wants to bag ALP like P1 and LNP supporters. I can understand LNP supporters bagging ALP.
However, I want SB want to discuss other issues as well.
“What a bunch of tossers those privileged men are!”
***
Must say my opinion of PVO has absolutely plummeted in recent years.
Been There says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 6:32 pm
Henry
Coorey has made a deal with the PMO.
____________________
I don’t see anything too odd with that article, apart from it not conforming to much of the reportage that Morrison has been diminished by the trip.
Lurker
Comments were referring to his articles in general.
Not one specific article.
You know that.
You’re so obvious, don’t think you’re being clever.
BT
Hands and feet in ICU with obvious signs of significant brain damage.
That’s enough detail for a pending case.
“But Quoll (so called Greens member) only wants to bag ALP like P1 and LNP supporters.”
***
Quoll and P1 very often hit the nails on their heads with their criticisms of both Labor and the Coalition. They aren’t afraid to hold the duopoly accountable.