Save the date

Confusion surrounding the likely date of the New South Wales state by-elections, to add to that we already have about the federal election.

This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.

Here’s what we do know:

• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.

• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.

• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.

• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.

• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.

• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.

• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.

• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.

Poll news:

• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.

• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.

• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.

• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.

Also:

• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,799 comments on “Save the date”

Comments Page 15 of 56
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  1. Been There says:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 6:40 pm

    Lurker

    Comments were referring to his articles in general.

    Not one specific article.

    You know that.

    You’re so obvious, don’t think you’re being clever.
    ___________________
    I don’t read all of his articles but from what I have read I don’t see a deal between him and PMO to be likely or evidence based.

    Perhaps you could provide some examples?

  2. ”
    lizziesays:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 5:21 pm
    Did Morrison’s presence make much difference to the outcomes of Glasgow in the end?
    ”

    lizzie
    I think it was poroti who posted a Murdoch rag headline before Morrison left to Glasgow, which read something to the effect “why the world will listen to Morrison”.

    I was reminded of this headline when Morrison gave his speech at Glasgow to empty auditorium.

  5. I think ScoMo probably got away with less damage than would have occurred if had been a firm agreement where Australia was on the outer.
    I do think that there has actually been damaged done on Nationals and the Liberals on the right front. I have no idea why but the United Australia Party does seem to be growing in strength among the hard right. One Nation seems to be sidelined.

  9. And we also have Can d’oh Campbell also looking to peel off some of those RWNJ Queenslanders.

    Maybe Pauline vs Clive vs Can d’oh will peel enough off LNP voters and exhaust enough to give the ALP a second seat

    The successful candidates in 2019 for the six Senate vacancies for Queensland are (in order of their election):
    SCARR, Paul – Liberal National Party of Queensland
    GREEN, Nita – Australian Labor Party
    MCDONALD, Susan – Liberal National Party of Queensland
    ROBERTS, Malcolm – Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
    RENNICK, Gerard – Liberal National Party of Queensland
    WATERS, Larissa – The Greens

  10. ”
    ratsaksays:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 6:12 pm
    Phil Coorey….

    FMD.

    I suppose a shill is gonna shill and having anything resembling a sense of self respect would only be a disadvantage, but still c’mon Phil, you gotta make it at least a little bit plausible. The Woman Who Saved Australia had a longer shelf life.
    ”

    What better can you expect from Coorey? He is working for Stuchbury, whose household discussion reportedly is “Liberals good, Labor bad”. 🙂

  11. Firefox says:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 5:54 pm

    Seemingly oblivious to the irony (and pre-supposing you have some high ground from which to condescend) here you are once again campaigning against Labor.

    You never disappoint in that respect.

    The Greens and their full payload – their servants, pilots, surveyors, clerks, cooks, maids, engineers, passengers, attendants and contractors – serve the interests of the counter-reformists in Australia. They put themselves at the disposal of the reactionaries day in/day out. This is deliberately done in order to postpone the modernisation of this society. It ill-serves the environment, social justice and the common estate. How absolutely deplorable.

  12. The 30% who registered an opinion against same sex marriage

    Anti abortion

    Anti end of life choice

    Anti tolls

    Anti desalination plants

    Anti the north south pipeline

    Anti fire services in residential areas consisting of paid firefighters, not volunteers

    Anti vaccination

    Anti government having available legislation in case of need during an emergency

    Anti climate change

    Anti paying taxes (they reduce incentive to earn more money)

    Anti speed cameras and red light cameras

    Anti infrastructure investment (including not in our back yard)

    Anti wage increases

    Anti superannuation

    Anti universal health care

    Anti unions (which represent employees)

    Anti level crossing removals

    And the list goes on and on

    Liberal voters all

    The Party of free enterprise – as long as you do what you are told, when you are told and as soon as you are told

  13. So Coorey is a Liberal stooge. Writing in the Financial Review he is giving his audience what they want to read.
    The rest of us (and there are a lot) don’t much care what he thinks.
    The West Australian’s Paul Murray had a rant over two pages today, something about the ABC getting the Macron thing all wrong.
    I didn’t read it. Like Coorey he is preaching to the converted.

  14. ”
    Firefoxsays:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 6:40 pm
    “But Quoll (so called Greens member) only wants to bag ALP like P1 and LNP supporters.”

    ***

    Quoll and P1 very often hit the nails on their heads with their criticisms of both Labor and the Coalition. They aren’t afraid to hold the duopoly accountable.
    ”

    Don’t quote me selectively.

  19. Morrison has been greatly diminished/exposed on the world stage, the rest of the world knows it, the question is will enough Australians see it.

  20. Meanwhile as per Twitter the anti vax crowd today are part of the cabal who have gone down the cray cray rabbit hole.
    It doesn’t help that they have the fiberals giving them cover to attack a progressive state Labor govt. The stupidity of these people is beyond the pale. Facebook has a lot to answer for.

    ——

    They had Trump flags flying and there was a serious amount of aggression coming from the mob. Wellness warriors linking arms with right-winged fascists. Very odd and entirely disconcerting.

  23. “Meanwhile as per Twitter the anti vax crowd today are part of the cabal who have gone down the cray cray rabbit hole.”

    Your Darwin Award is in the mail.

  28. ”
    Observersays:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 7:11 pm
    The 30% who registered an opinion against same sex marriage
    …………………………………
    …………….
    …………………
    Liberal voters all
    ”

    You are not right on atleast SSM part of your above post. I think only 13 federal electorates (or was it 14) voted against Same sex marriage. Out of which only 2 are Liberal electorates (Banks and Bennelong) and that too with bare anti-SSM majority. 1 was National party electorate and the other 10 are ALP electorates.
    So it was significant portion of ALP voters who voted against SSM.

  30. “So many nails and only two heads.”

    ***

    There sure are a lot of nails to hit when it comes to Labor and the Coalition, you aren’t wrong about that. Wrong about pretty much everything else but you got that bit right lol

  32. “So it was significant portion of ALP voters who voted against SSM.”

    Large Muslim populations being a pretty common denominator.

  36. The point is that PEP11 would not be an issue now if it wasn’t for Labor NSW and Fed governments approvals in 2009-2010, that’s the nature of these kinds of deals.

    I would certainly have been asking the question if I was there. Good if they’re against it now but do they acknowledge they set in motion decades of shit for these communities and handed a stick with which the Libs can beat them and these communities over the head with for years to come? When even years ago there was widespread community concern. Regularly it seems communities have to go war with their own governments who are really working for corporate interests, their donors… On our side? yeah nah.

    As far as I can tell everyone is now claiming to be against PEP11, Greens were always, Indies like Zali is trying, local Labor and Lib MPs all claiming to be against it now. But the govt doing nothing and Labor backs the gas led recovery fully. Who knows after an election if anyone would still give a shit.

    Same as the Bylong valley community would have to endure decades of shit over a coal mine that the likes of Labor’s Eddie Obeid organised and capitalised on against their wishes.
    Even now despite a win in the courts, and Eddie inside, companies that bought a promised coal mine rights feel they can still go to court and try to force the community to suffer because the bloody Labor govt sold them out over a coal deal well over a decade ago. These things become soul and community destroying sagas for years once set in motion.

    KEPCO to seek leave to appeal Bylong Valley coal mine refusal in High Court
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-14/kepco-to-take-bylong-valley-coal-mine-fight-to-high-court/100539144

  38. I blame the Catholics, Anglicans, Mormons, Presbyterians, Seven Day Adventists, Pentecostals and the Salvation Army, myself.

    And the Exclusive Brethren, not forgetting the Amish of course.

  39. ItzaDream
    I’ve been to Paddington and Sydney is very different to drive around than Melbourne is and that looks like a nice car.

  40. Quoll,
    Don’t try and say The Greens were the main motivators against the Bylong Valley Coal Mine of KEPCO. They weren’t. They jumped on board up here on the Central Coast as soon as they got a sniff that the issue would break out. It’s what they always do. Jump on the bandwagon and claim all the glory. It has been community members with the support of members of the Central Coast branches of the Labor Party who have fund-raised for the legal team in the Land and Environment Court and provided moral support, that have done the most to help defeat KEPCO. And we will continue to do so.

    Water Not Coal.

  41. Observer
    There is a danger for the ALP that one day the Liberals will work out how to merge the conservative Christian and conservative followers of other faiths because that will see areas in Sydney’s west and Melbourne’s outer north and south east become winnable for them but the problem for the Liberals is it preselects people like Bernie Finn who hasn’t built those relationships.

  42. So much for the Travis Scott arena show:

    Eight people dead and multiple injured at Travis Scott’s Astroworld Festival in Houston

    Houston police confirm at least eight people have been killed and multiple injured at Astroworld festival in Houston, a sold-out event run by rapper Travis Scott. At least 23 have been transported to the hospital and over 300 were treated throughout the day.

    HFD Chief Sam Pena: At least 8 confirmed fatalities and many injuries. Around 50,000 people attended the Astroworld Festival.

    KHOU 11 News Houston
    @KHOU

    HFD Chief Sam Pena: At around 9 or 9:15, the crowd began to compress toward the front of the stage and that caused panic and people were getting injured. HFD transported 17 people to hospitals. 11 of those transported were in cardiac arrest.

  45. “B.S. Fairman,
    I can’t wait for the showdown between Clive and Pauline as they campaign for the same voters. MAD!”

    It didn’t work out that well for Labor in Queensland last federal election though.

    Clive Palmer is a wrecker, a distraction, and an LNP attack dog in a yellow shirt. I think it would be better for Labor with his millions of dollars of confetti crap to be off the political stage.

    Actually whats not that well known is according to the book Party Animals. Is during the last federal campaign Mathias Cormann caught up with Palmer in Queensland. Apparently they know each other well from Palmers time as an Mp in Canberra. Palmer has denied it was strategic collaborative meeting on how to attack Labor.

    Political commentator Paul Williams seems to think despite Palmers millions Pauline Hanson is certain to return to the senate at the next federal election.

  49. PNW,
    Clive Palmer’s there. We gotta deal with it. Ditto PHON. And all the other RWNJ parties. Labor’s messaging against them has to be as good as their messaging is against Labor.

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