Save the date

Confusion surrounding the likely date of the New South Wales state by-elections, to add to that we already have about the federal election.

This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.

Here’s what we do know:

• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.

• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.

• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.

• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.

• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.

• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.

• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.

• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.

Poll news:

• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.

• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.

• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.

• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.

Also:

• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,799 comments on “Save the date”

Comments Page 17 of 56
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  1. “Nina Funnell, journalist & #LetUsSpeak manager
    @ninafunnell
    · 1h
    BREAKING: We are now aware of 14 individuals or organisations who have been threatened with defamation by either Christian Porter, Andrew Laming or Peter van Onselen (or a combination there of). ”

    As a W.A. voter, i still want credible reassurance that Clive Palmer is not one of the donors to the Legal Services Trust. 🙁

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Jack Waterford, at length, says that Scott Morrison’s performance at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow demeaned all Australians.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7498365/scott-morrisons-lack-of-vision-demeans-us-all/?cs=14329
    Voters expect politicians to lie, so why the big deal when they get caught, asks Jacqui Maley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-expect-politicians-to-lie-so-why-the-big-deal-when-they-get-caught-20211105-p596e7.html
    Last week Dominic Perrottet ordered a review of how taxpayer-funded grants are handed out, further distancing himself from his predecessor whose position on pork-barrelling he said he has never shared.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/bringing-home-the-bacon-perrottet-faces-grilling-over-pork-barrelling-20211104-p59657.html
    Chip Le Grand reports that Tim Smith, once touted as a future leader of his party, will quit politics at the next state election after deciding not to seek preselection for his seat of Kew.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/best-interest-tim-smith-to-quit-politics-at-next-election-20211106-p596l6.html
    Melissa Cunningham goes to an ICU in a Melbourne hospital and finds healthcare workers who are no longer just fighting a war against coronavirus, they are now battling a never-ending scourge of misinformation about the disease.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/in-the-icu-where-only-maria-is-vaccinated-others-die-in-disbelief-20211105-p596gc.html
    John Kehoe explains why everyone except the RBA thinks the economy is about to boom.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/why-everyone-except-the-rba-thinks-the-economy-is-about-to-boom-20211103-p595o2
    Looking closely at how Scott Morrison has succeeded – and the ways in which he has failed – can tell us a lot about politics, and journalism, and Australians, explains Sean Kelly who writes here about his new book.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2021/nov/06/writing-a-book-about-scott-morrison-the-fact-he-seemed-boring-wasnt-an-obstacle
    Part of the solution to ending corruption from the likes of Eddie Obeid is to eliminate the financial incentives for such practices, writes Karl Fitzgerald.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/eddie-obeid-is-a-symptom-of-a-greater-problem,15716
    James Massola and Anthony Galloway tell us that a decision on whether to force a Chinese company to hand back its ownership of the Port of Darwin could be handed down in a matter of weeks, as the federal government weighs whether to make a move that will further ignite tensions with Beijing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/crunch-decision-on-chinese-owned-port-of-darwin-looms-20211105-p596fv.html
    Some of Scott Morrison’s claims in his COP26 speech were dubious, so the experts at the Climate Council have done his homework for him.
    https://johnmenadue.com/climate-facts-debunking-scott-morrisons-cop26-speech/
    While Malcolm Turnbull routinely advocates for climate change, we should not forget what he did and failed to do when he had the opportunity, writes Andrew Wicks.
    https://theaimn.com/the-hypocrisy-of-turnbulls-climate-commentary/
    For all the benefits wrought by the information revolution, social media has become a tool of dictators. Its profit-driven, surveillance-based business model favours those with deep pockets and deadly motives. In the first of two articles, cybersecurity expert and human rights activist Manal al-Sharif suggests way to invent the digital world for the better.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/how-social-media-turned-the-world-into-saudi-arabia/
    Sarah Danckert has a deep look at the ACCC’s Rod Sims who, she says, is not for turning.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/iron-rod-why-the-accc-s-top-dog-isn-t-for-turning-20211104-p595yx.html
    The Nationals’ reputation as champions of the bush will be tested as the party waits on the Liberals to deliver rural funds ahead of an election, writes Mike Foley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/net-zero-climate-deal-no-zero-sum-game-for-the-nationals-20211105-p596eo.html
    Rachel Dexter writes about what happens when a loved one goes down the anti-vaxxer rabbit hole.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/like-watching-them-drown-when-loved-ones-go-down-the-vaccine-rabbit-hole-20211103-p595m6.html
    Australians will be getting booster shots to combat COVID-19 for years to come, with annual injections to become an integral part of the national vaccination program, according to the Pharmacy Guild.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coronavirus-boosters-likely-for-years-to-come-pharmacy-guild-20211105-p596ff.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons explains how house prices have been rising at four times the rate of wages growth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/house-price-growth-three-times-faster-than-wages-over-four-decades-20211102-p595dr.html
    The New York Times explains how Russia is using small nuclear reactors for energy production.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/with-a-nuclear-powered-shower-russia-tests-a-climate-innovation-20211105-p596dm.html
    Regional Australians are demanding action, not obfuscation, on climate change, writes Caitlin Fitzsimmons.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/false-hope-regional-australians-demand-action-not-obfuscation-on-climate-change-20211103-p595rb.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Davidson

    Matt Golding

    Mark Knight

    Warren Brown

    From the US



  6. Ah yes, Fast Eddie and Australian Water Holdings. Arfur Seenodonors was up to his eyeballs in that little number.

    Arthur Sinodinos and the surreal world of Australian Water

    The funny thing about Australian Water Holdings, the company which has now claimed the political scalp of assistant treasurer Arthur Sinodinos, is that before the lobbyists got involved it was worth almost nothing.

    ……………..But the real prize was to convince the NSW government to sign on to a big for-profit contract. Di Girolamo commissioned a study by PwC which claimed such a “public private partnership” could boost the value of AWH from basically nothing to between $150 million and $250 million.

    The difficulty for the two men now running this pipes-and-drains pipe dream was that they were well-known Liberals. Sinodinos was, of course, John Howard’s valued chief of staff and Di Girolamo, prominent in the Italian community, was a big fund-raiser for the Liberals. But the state government in NSW was Labor. So they had to play both sides of the fence. By chance Di Girolamo had an “in” with the family of Eddie Obeid , the Labor MP who controlled the key faction in the NSW government. His youngest son, Eddie Obeid jnr, and Di Girolamo were old school chums.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/arthur-sinodinos-and-the-surreal-world-of-australian-water-20140322-ixbyv

  8. Pics from Facebook of Morrison promoting himself cooking a curry for friends for Diwali (The pet photographer plus Jen, perhaps?). Unfortunately he has chosen curries (prawns and chicken) containing proteins, and Rivali is usually celebrated with vegetarian meals.

  10. ”
    An insightful article by Richard Dennis on the damage done by Morrison.
    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2021/november/1635685200/richard-denniss/needle-and-damage-done?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Sunday%20Reads%20-%20November%207%202021&utm_content=Sunday%20Reads%20-%20November%207%202021+CID_300216a5f3e4a3228bc37eb81269d2f5&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=The%20needle%20and%20the%20damage%20done#mtr
    ”

    From the article:
    Scott Morrison’s New Year’s message to Australians couldn’t have been clearer. The front page of The Sydney Morning Herald cried, “Vaccine can wait, says PM”. Lest there be any doubt about his priorities at that time, the story opened with the calming words, “Prime Minister Scott Morrison has warned it would be dangerous to rush a coronavirus vaccination rollout even if it could lead to restrictions and border closures easing sooner.”

    No, you didn’t read that wrong. In January this year, the second year of the pandemic, the prime minister was urging us to hasten slowly when it came to vaccination. Two months later, he first uttered the infamous phrase that the vaccine rollout “is not a race”, a line he repeated three times that month.

    But by July, he hadn’t just changed his mind, he wanted us to change our memories as well. “When we made those remarks,” he claimed, “we were talking about the regulation of the vaccines. I’m not sure if people are aware of that.” But he wasn’t. Both the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines had been approved by February, well before he took his “not a race” line for a few laps around the press gallery. Yet again, Morrison was simply making stuff up to cover his change of course. It was neither the first nor last time during the pandemic.

    On January 7, he held a press conference at which he humbly informed Australians that, “We don’t want to make promises that we can’t keep … We will tell you timetables when we can have confidence in those timetables, and we will continue to update those timetables as more information is known and as improvements continue to be made. We know what we know, and will base our information and our timetables on that rather than speculating.” The timetable should have been clear: by then, Morrison and his ministers had already made half a dozen announcements about their vaccine acquisitions, boasting of tens of millions of doses.

    Three weeks later, Health Minster Greg Hunt delivered the timetable the PM had promised: “Our goal is very clear, and our advice is very clear, that we aim to have the country vaccinated before the end of October.” That statement might seem “very clear”, and it was subsequently confirmed by the secretary of the Department of Health on March 10, and by Morrison on March 11, but when it …………


  11. Ven says:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 7:25 pm

    ”
    Observersays:
    Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 7:11 pm
    The 30% who registered an opinion against same sex marriage
    …………………………………
    …………….
    …………………
    Liberal voters all
    ”

    You are not right on atleast SSM part of your above post. I think only 13 federal electorates (or was it 14) voted against Same sex marriage. Out of which only 2 are Liberal electorates (Banks and Bennelong) and that too with bare anti-SSM majority. 1 was National party electorate and the other 10 are ALP electorates.
    So it was significant portion of ALP voters who voted against SSM.

    That is very true, supporting SSM was the right thing to do, but it did some damage to Labor.

  14. ”
    James Massola and Anthony Galloway tell us that a decision on whether to force a Chinese company to hand back its ownership of the Port of Darwin could be handed down in a matter of weeks, as the federal government weighs whether to make a move that will further ignite tensions with Beijing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/crunch-decision-on-chinese-owned-port-of-darwin-loom
    ”

    I think Morrison government will force the Chinese company to hand over the ownership of Port of Darwin whatever may be the cost to the country. He will potray it as a National security issue without giving reasons.

  15. I think C++ will go the same way as Assembler ( where I spent most of my career ),COBOL, basic, pascal and FORTRAN. At least C can be looked upon as a platform independent assembler.

    The industry has moved on.

  16. As the election looks to be going to be about who do you trust to keep you safe, I guess that forcing the Port of Darwin back into government hands will play well into that.

    Not to mention that, with the Chinese reaching out to Manus Is in PNG to ‘helpfully’ build them a port, it’s a good idea.

    The Port of Darwin should never have been ‘leased for 99 years’ in the first place.

  17. Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup.

    The security theatre by the Morrison government at a Chinese company owning Darwin Port is quite hypocritical. It was a Country Liberal Party NT government that sold it, and the Abbott government that approved the deal.

    Such incompetence casts light on the sub contract folly. The Liberal Party likes to talk as though it is concerned about Defense, while acting in the opposite manner.

  23. It’s a bit early for this, but …

    … when things go wrong, Mr Cool, the Taiwanese Australian wunderkinder violinist Ray Chen does just that … cool

    Here a violin string breaks (00:18) while he’s playing the Tchaikovsky Violin Concerto in Seattle :

    https://youtu.be/txc3w48CGMA

  24. ItzaDream @ #818 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 8:25 am

    C@tmomma @ #813 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 8:09 am

    Or preparing the ingredients.

    Too busy picking which cap to wear in the kitchen, as you do.

    He didn’t set the table either. You can tell a professional did that. And serve it up cleanly into serving bowls. And the angle that the photo was taken from. The photographer was obviously up a ladder to get the best angle on all the ingredients and the ‘amateur thespian’ doing his performance. 😀

  25. lizzie @ #821 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 8:27 am

    I was really shocked when the lease of Darwin Port was announced. Wasn’t it that slimy Andrew Robb who was involved?

    And the idiot former Chief Minister of the NT who did it because he wanted to plug a hole in the NT Deficit and satisfy Joe Hockey’s ‘Asset Recycling’ mantra. 🙄

    Plus curry favour with his federal Liberal mukker, Andrew Robb.

  26. What does one eat during Diwali?

    Many things, but not meat like the staged ‘cooking’ beamed out to his adoring Facebook followers. Typical Morrison – all show, no pony.

    ‘Other foods eaten during Diwali

    As well as sweet treats, there are also savory snacks served at various points over the festivities along with curries and rich dishes such as fried foods or those using ghee.

    Snacks include chivda, a mix like Bombay mix, combining nuts and chickpea/lentil/rice-based crunchy salted snacks.

    You’ll also find appetizers like:

    Bhaji (the South Indian name) or pakora (the North Indian name, though there can be some variations in how they are made as well). They are made from various vegetables like onion, spinach and cabbage mixed with a chickpea flour and spice-based dough and fried.

    Samosas, little parcels of pastry filled with vegetables like potato and peas, as well as spices.
    Idli, a kind of rice cake.

    Puri, a kind of flatbread fried in ghee.

    Many people are vegetarian during this period, if not throughout the year, and so mains typically combine vegetables, eggs and/or paneer, a kind of cheese (such as paneer Makhani).

    https://www.curiouscuisiniere.com/what-is-diwali/

  27. It all rather begs the question of what idiots allowed the Port of Darwin to be leased to a Chinese corporation in the first place…

  28. This is how the LNP government treats us.

    @djirrawirr
    ·
    8h
    Finally get to a polling booth after 300kms travel, find out I forgot my wallet, get told to leave, then get $150 fine 3 weeks later deducted from my indue card for failing to vote.
    Gotta love voting for the LNP don’t we “quiet regional Australians”

  32. Raf Epstein
    @Raf_Epstein

    This is a very big deal.

    One of our best legal minds just appointed to the International Court of Justice.

    Congratulations to Hilary Charlesworth.

    5th woman to ever be appointed

    (Can’t see any public celebration or public support from the Aust Govt, did I miss it?)

    Bravo!

  33. C@t

    Corruption starts at the Shire Liars desk.

    Dr Tardigrade*
    @davidsmosspiggy
    Replying to
    @RonniSalt
    Who is Scott Morrison’s personal photographer? How did he get the role? Did he know ScoMo personally before? Does the tax payer pay his salary and how much is it? Have any of our other Prime Minister’s had a personal photographer following them around and even living with them?

  34. Day 6 of Sarah in Scotland!

    So good to have SHY representing Australia on the world stage and making sure that other countries don’t get the impression that Morrison speaks for all of us.

    Side note: you’ll see above that Sarah did an interview on Sky News UK. Keep in mind that while it still leans right, it is considerably less extreme than Sky News Australia these days as a result of no longer being owned by Murdoch. Comcast bought it in 2018. Sky UK has pretty much gone in the completely opposite direction to Sky Aus, which is now fully owned by Murdoch, rather than being jointly owned by Murdoch, Nine, and Seven as it was previously.

  40. Spinners like a top – Birmo now saying the journalists ‘pressured’ Macron, and weren’t ‘acting in the national interest’

  46. When Morrison is finally booted out, a curry cooking show awaits him on the SBS Food Channel or commercial TV.

    Or perhaps he could go on Better Homes and Gardens – cook a curry and assemble a chook shed on the same show.

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