This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
“Shallow and vindictive” just about covers it.
Probyn – ‘shallow and vindictive’ by Morrison to leak the private text
‘Flawed, foolhardy response’…
3 out of 4 of the Insiders dumping on sQomo – only Phil Coorey defending the shire liar
Coorey now stenographing the PMO view on Biden – also saying Macron the winner
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 8:50 am
”
Caption: If Albo can take a photo in smart casuals at a beach so can I, Scomo, take a photo in farm casuals in barren farm land.
Victoria 1,173 new cases and 9 deaths.
NSW 244 new cases and 1 death.
Victoria records 1,173 new local COVID-19 cases and nine deaths
There are now 16,413 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 361 people have died during the current Delta outbreak.
There are 568 people in hospital in Victoria with COVID-19, of whom 96 are in intensive care, and 63 are on a ventilator.
The new cases were detected from 56,649 test results received yesterday.
There were 13,913 doses of vaccine given at state-run centres yesterday, as well as more vaccinations at GP clinics and other venues.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-07/sunday-victoria-records-new-covid-cases-and-deaths/100596502
Exactly:
Morrison stating ‘whose side is you on’ is beyond sad and prescious….
Talk back radio the barometer of how our PM should act
PB agonisingly slow this morning for me.
pukka at 8:30 am
Australia, what a dumb arse US lackey. We speak loudly while carrying a tiny stick to the Chinese, at the behest of our mates the ‘Mercans’, we lose first agricultural and now the gas and coal markets in China. American exporters being the good mates they are show their appreciation of our sacrifice by jumping straight in and replacing us, sniggering all the way to the bank.
Bloody Speers interruptions to get a gotcha.
Speers struggling
Chears BK,
From your omnibus, the Climate Council’s debunking of Morrison.
This for me nails the major issue in dealing with climate change.
Focusing on other countries just deflects from what you should be doing.
https://johnmenadue.com/climate-facts-debunking-scott-morrisons-cop26-speech/
Gah, Bowen may know his stuff but he needs to slow down by half.
Bowen has to be fast on his feet to cope with Speers dancing from one subject to another. Makes me breathless.
South
Maybe Bowen could take lessons from Tehan. 😆
BOOOOM
THIS MAN IS A LIAR
Bowen ripping into Morrison, ‘This guy is a liar.’
Bowen.. on FIRE!… sinks the US/UK boat & Shire Liar in one go… French contract will be revived.
Firefox @ #733 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 9:07 am
I just checked and the last one was 2 weeks ago. Hard to tell though as they have mucked it around a little
Bowen 1
Speers 0
Morrison-1
It appears the gloves are off with Labor branding Morrison a liar – and pointing out the consequences to Australia’s national interest by having a liar as PM
Coorey parroting the PMO with ‘those other countries’ not pulling their weight, so why should Australia?
This is the 10 year old argument used by the Coalition to go slow on action on Climate Change
Burst of sunlight through heavy skies at Bunnings in Aylmerton as Mrs Shellbell somewhat suspiciously purchases four cans of spray paint
That is very suspicious. You should keep a watch on your walls.
sprocket_ @ #873 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 6:48 am
So we’re a nation of leaners.
If I start noticing ‘Shellbell’ tags on walls….
Coorey reckons May election
shellbell @ #874 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 6:48 am
Isn’t she a bit past her graffiti days?
Bowen follows up ‘This guy is a liar’ with wtte, ‘internationally and domestically, honesty and integrity’ are fundamental.
Shellbell, keep an eye out for Itza
‘poroti says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 9:28 am
pukka at 8:30 am
And the biggest loser is Australia, China signs gas and coal deal with the US.
…’
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China has been diversifying fossil fuel sources for decades. There is nothing new there. It has also been ramping up domestic production of coal which this year reached a record high. China was not one of the countries that singed the Glasgow pledge to eliminate coal-fired energy. And no wonder. China burns 53% of the world thermal coal and is clearly intent on increasing that percentage.
BTW, the biggest loser is any chance that we will keep temperature increase below 1.5 degrees.
I know that it is unfashionable to point at Dictator Xi and name him as the world’s number 1 climate criminal, but there it is. It is what it is.
I will say (noting I can’t say much), within Government – it feels like we’re prepping for an early Budget, not an election, not yet.
… although election is inherent to an early Budget.
Australia certainly in the running for fossil of the COP currently, with bipartisan corporate sponsorship and government capture by Woodside, Santos, Chevron et al for years no doubt contributing.to such a performance.
So why not try building on previous efforts at offshore oil and gas projects like PEP11 with offering a bunch more new ones during COP26?
You’d think if Labor was serious about reducing carbon emissions that all these Labor state governments would not be providing any support and cover for new offshore oil and gas projects off their coasts. That’s perhaps if you didn’t think that there’s bipartisan capture of the Lib and Labor parties by their fossil fuel donors and benefactors.
https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22media%2Fpressrel%2F8261512%22;src1=sm1
Consultation opens for offshore petroleum exploration
4 November 2021
Public consultation is now open on 10 potential areas to be released for offshore petroleum exploration.
Minister for Resources and Water Keith Pitt said ongoing petroleum exploration is critical to ensure Australians have access to reliable and affordable energy.
“The oil and gas sector will play a pivotal role in our domestic energy needs as well as being a key export industry generating billions of dollars in investment and providing thousands of jobs,” Minister Pitt said.
The 10 areas to be potentially included in the 2022 offshore petroleum exploration acreage release are located offshore from Western Australia, Victoria, the Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands, and the Northern Territory.
Minister Pitt said consultation will inform a decision to release an area for bidding.
Submissions will also assist potential explorers understand factors they may need to consider when applying for an area or when planning exploration. “Offshore petroleum acreage release remains a key mechanism to attract investment in our petroleum industry,” Minister Pitt said.
Labor should welcome the ‘Who’s side are you on?’ tactic. How many of Morrison’s actions (though mostly inactions) are aimed at benefitting his chosen people?
‘Quoll says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 10:17 am
Australia certainly in the running for fossil of the COP currently….
———————————————-
China, the US and India are your top three CO2 emitters. Go for it.
Brazil and Indonesia signed the forest agreement but have zero intention of complying with their signatures. Go for it.
Putin and Xi undermined Glasgow by refusing to attend it. Go for it.
I’m surprised that it took this long for Smith to announce he won’t stand for Kew at the next election. Given the circumstances surrounding his offence, he had no viable alternative, despite the likes of the foolish Abbott supporting him.
You just can’t have a Shadow Attorney, even without legal qualifications, driving with a BAC of 0.131 or, for that matter, any politician whose duty it is to set an appropriate example. He could’ve easily caught a cab home, and it doesn’t say much for those who were in attendance with him at the piss-up, whose identities, to my knowledge, haven’t been revealed. They should’ve taken his keys.
Quoll
If you’re going to slam the ‘Labor States’ it’s a good idea to provide the evidence with which to slam them.
The Federal government talking about projects happening in the States doesn’t necessarily mean the States are on side.
They might be – it’s just you haven’t provided any evidence that they are.
Victorian politics is improved with the removal of Tim Smith.
He was never suited to public office in my view.
“If you’re going to slam the ‘Labor States’ it’s a good idea to provide the evidence with which to slam them.”
***
No shortage of that, just look at Adani and all the other mines that the QLD Labor gov is apparently so proud of. Or if that’s not enough, take a look over the border to the NT where the Gunner Labor gov is granting approvals to frack the Beetaloo Basin.
sprocket_ @ #828 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 9:48 am
Insiders is a must miss program while operatives like Coorey are given prominence.
Firefox
So nothing to do with the example Quoll’s using….
Quoll says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 10:17 am
Very good of you to illustrate so clearly for the reader that Labor has not been wedged by the Greens this time. Many thanks.
If Labor win this time it will be because of such efforts. Thanks again.
“So nothing to do with the example Quoll’s using….”
***
Oh, that makes it ok then…? Of course not.
Environmental vandalism is environmental vandalism. Doesn’t matter if it’s happening on-shore or off-shore, it all counts.
Firefox says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 10:33 am
“If you’re going to slam the ‘Labor States’ it’s a good idea to provide the evidence with which to slam them.”
***
No shortage of that, just look at Adani and all the other mines that the QLD Labor gov is apparently so proud of. Or if that’s not enough, take a look over the border to the NT where the Gunner Labor gov is granting approvals to frack the Beetaloo Basin.
Labor might just win a couple of regional seats. Durack is almost possible in WA. There could be a few in QLD and Hunter might be defensible. Together with the Labor-positive vote in covid-conscious WA and Victoria, Labor might eke out a victory.
Avoidance of the Green wedge could be just about enough to get Labor into office. Of course, were this to happen, it would be a disaster for the Greens. Just as you fervently hope Labor will lose, I hope equally that Labor might win. Albo has Labor in a good position….remarkable, all things considered.
Firefox
Facts are facts. If Quoll has them, he should use them.
sprocket_ @ #886 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 9:45 am
I think they should extend it to every Liberal MP in every seat in Australia with a proven lie to hold against them. 🙂
“Of course, were this to happen, it would be a disaster for the Greens. Just as you fervently hope Labor will lose, I hope equally that Labor might win. Albo has Labor in a good position….remarkable, all things considered.”
***
As I’ve said multiple times, I hope the Coalition is turfed out (as RDN used to say) and that the Greens are in the balance of power in one or both houses. If Greens voters really wanted the Libs to win, they would win all the time, because if we changed our preferences to them Labor would not have a hope against them. You need our support to defeat them, so stop pretending like we are trying to help the Coalition when we vehemently oppose them.
I prefer to think of Quoll as a Tasmanian Devil 🙂
“Facts are facts. If Quoll has them, he should use them.”
***
Indeed they are. It is a fact that Labor is contributing to the climate emergency.