This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Mavis @ #911 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 10:22 am
Apparently Smith was having dinner with a prominent Melbourne QC. Who should have known better when it came to providing sage advice to his dinner companion, as you say.
”
zoomstersays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 10:27 am
Quoll
If you’re going to slam the ‘Labor States’ it’s a good idea to provide the evidence with which to slam them.
The Federal government talking about projects happening in the States doesn’t necessarily mean the States are on side.
They might be – it’s just you haven’t provided any evidence that they are.
”
Quoll (Qanon) has One track mind in criticising ALP like Asha categorised SB. She tags LNP inher posts for same-same talking point.
Look at the Senators and MPs Greens party selected and elected. After Bob Brown and Christine Milne none of the elected legislators can be classified as environmentalists and Green activists. They are mostly far left groups like Communists. For example, people like Adam Bandt, Lee Rhiannon, Lidia Thorpe, Di Natali’s BIL who became Victoria Greens state legislature leader( before resigning in secrecy) were not green activist. They were far-left activists before they incorporated Green talking points to get elected.
Firefox
If Quoll is unable to mount arguments, then that shows how weak Quoll’s position is.
Quoll has accused the State governments as being on side with the Liberals in a particular instance. If that’s true, he should be able to provide support for that accusation.
If he can’t, it’s not your job to do it for him.
As it is, it appears that Quoll is indulging in a bit of false equivalence and blaming Labor in this particular case isn’t backed by any evidence that either you or he can find.
Quoll lacks credibility because of this kind of foundless accusation.
poroti says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 9:28 am
pukka at 8:30 am
And the biggest loser is Australia, China signs gas and coal deal with the US.
Australia, what a dumb arse US lackey. We speak loudly while carrying a tiny stick to the Chinese, at the behest of our mates the ‘Mercans’, we lose first agricultural and now the gas and coal markets in China. American exporters being the good mates they are show their appreciation of our sacrifice by jumping straight in and replacing us, sniggering all the way to the bank.
China has stopped using Australian fossil fuel resources for it’s own reasons ( not only does Morrison lie, but he insults for no good reason). Outcome; China moves their sources to other suppliers. They have to they do not have the renewables in place and they have to keep their economy running.
Imagine how angry China would be if we were refusing to supply, this is the Green’s policy (along with no defense spending).
I foolishly tried to watch parts of Insiders after the Bowen interview, which I thought Bowen handled well.
I turned it off after a few minutes of being unable to listen to Phil Coorey. If I wanted to hear Liberal Party talking points being parroted as journalism I’d watch Sky After Dark. Coorey should stop pretending and run for Liberal pre-selection.
”
Firefoxsays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 10:33 am
“If you’re going to slam the ‘Labor States’ it’s a good idea to provide the evidence with which to slam them.”
***
No shortage of that, just look at Adani and all the other mines that the QLD Labor gov is apparently so proud of. Or if that’s not enough, take a look over the border to the NT where the Gunner Labor gov is granting approvals to frack the Beetaloo Basin.
”
Why do you want destruction of Australia?
If Labor implements any of the policies advocated by you then ALP will never get elected as governing party to Federal or state legislatures. In that case it will be LNP that will be elected. You said in your posts that there is slow and sure degradation of social and environmental policies in Australia. The country is poorer for that and may lead to the eventual destruction of Australia.
So I ask you again ask Why do you want destruction of Australia?
No shortage of that, just look at Adani and all the other mines that the QLD Labor gov is apparently so proud of. Or if that’s not enough, take a look over the border to the NT where the Gunner Labor gov is granting approvals to frack the Beetaloo Basin.
I love the Greens on this forum who crow about Adani and only have to worry about their 10% of the vote. Federal Labor were literally smashed on the Adani issue. Annastasia Palaszczuk had no choice as she has all those state Labor seats in North and Central Queensland that would have been gone.
And Greens taking pot shots or Bob Brown running a convoy and angering the locals. Literally handed the keys to Scott Morrison to the lodge by putting the issue front and centre stage. People up there want a job, and any Green who thinks countering it is to ‘educate people’ by having overhead projector and educating them about climate change are kidding themselves.
“If he can’t, it’s not your job to do it for him.”
***
I’m not trying to do that, I’m making my own points. Quoll seems perfectly capable of mounting arguments to me, they (I’m unsure of their gender, not that it matters) do a great job of it in fact. Labor does very often back environmental vandalism, including supporting the Libs and their mates.
Don’t forget when push came to shove in his own backyard, St Bob Brown of The Greens became a NIMBY wrt a Renewable Energy Wind Farm project. And he even used the go to Liberal Party excuse of. Because a bird! 🙄
“Why do you want destruction of Australia?”
***
That is precisely what I am arguing against, actually. I would certainly call mines like Adani and CSG fracking like Beetaloo destructive to Australia and the world. I don’t buy the argument that Labor has to support the destruction of the country in order to win. Maybe it was that way once but not anymore. People are demanding climate action and Labor and the Coalition are willfully ignoring them.
Smith crashed his car 5 doors down from where John Kennedy MP for Hawthorn lives…
Has the Adani mine even started production yet? Or is it still in its convenient boogeyman phase? I thought banks were refusing to fund it?
UK Cartoons:
It took a while to find this one. The original Elizabeth Thompson – On the Morrow of Talavera Soldiers of the 43rd Bringing in the Dead.
This from Pedro Ribeiro Ferreira of Portugal I found amusing.
The Great Conquerors:
Adani will not go ahead if Coal demand falls. The Greens wanting Australia to smash the economies of other countries before they have renewable resources in place to take over from coal is an extraordinary attack on the peoples of the other counties.
Australia needs to show other countries how to get out of coal, not destroy the economies of other counties by refusing to supply
“Has the Adani mine even started production yet? Or is it still in its convenient boogeyman phase? I thought banks were refusing to fund it?”
***
Just ask this idiot…
“Adani will not go ahead if Coal demand falls.”
***
It already has! Look at the bloody post above of Canavan clutching a chunk of coal from the Adani mine.
‘The Duke of Pork’ has a nice ring to it for our own PM. 🙂
Dandy Murray @ #802 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 12:25 am
There are Python bindings. People will just use those. No need to touch C++ directly.
Firefox
Adani is nothing without the rail link.
The rail link hasn’t started.
Steven Beschloss, US Presidential Historian, on Substack:
https://america.substack.com/p/can-the-fever-break-now/comments
C@tmomma:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 10:52 am
[‘Apparently Smith was having dinner with a prominent Melbourne QC. Who should have known better when it came to providing sage advice to his dinner companion, as you say.’]
I would think that none who were at that dinner party would want the public to know their identity; not suggesting that they were doing anything wrong per se but due to their collective responsibility in not preventing Smith from driving home, in an obviously pissed state.
Rex Douglas @ #604 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 10:30 am
Dim Tim gorn.
Binchicken gorn.
Bruz gorn.
Dan still standing.
That is very true, supporting SSM was the right thing to do, but it did some damage to Labor.
Kevin Rudd has suggested in the book Party Animals. That Morrison releasing photos of him waving his hand in the air at the Pentecostalism church gained more traction then you think in Queensland. It sent a message to some Queenslanders that he was there kind of guy. And he didn’t care what secular southern critics thought of him which would have resonated with some in Queensland. Some of them may not even be regular churchgoers but did grow up in a church type of environment.
mundo @ #926 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 10:27 am
Took long enough.
Pretty amazing that he tried to hang on at all. And that he got so many people, some of them quite prominent, supporting him in doing so. The risk of becoming a standardless, accountability-free cesspit like the US is real.
One good thing about Coorey on Insiders was that he admitted he was on the PM’s chook feed list and that he was not going to trouble himself about that.
The Adani Mine (company renamed Bravus) is proceeding, and construction has already started. Most of the site is now cleared so most of the construction environmental damage is already suffered. Construction has been delayed by finance. Adani/Carmichael Mine was projected to commence operations in 2021, but probably won’t till 2022.
You can see photos in this link.
https://www.bravus.com.au/carmichael-mine/
The Adani rail link is also proceeding.
https://www.bravus.com.au/carmichael-rail/
The claim that Labor could not have won the State election without supporting this is circular logic. We will never know because they caved in.
At Federal level Labor’s strategy was the worst of both worlds, not enough to convince the far right crazies to avoid losing seats in Qld, while deterring urban votes in NSW and Vic as well. In my view this was a primary cause of the 2019 election loss.
Labor can’t blame the Greens campaigning on an environmental issue, any more than the Greens cannot complain on Labor campaigning on an IR issue.
As in many issues, some “progressive” political parties demonstrate in office that they in practice to the right of the majority of people who vote for them. I don’t think this is electoral calculus. I think it is due to the personal prejudices of the individuals and interest groups that dominate those parties, and the demographics of their decision makers, not the electorate.
NSW new daily Covid cases – 5-day centred average:
Numbers seem to be levelling off in the 200’s and might be about to turn back upwards. Ref number is now 0.98: https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html
Here are the stats for Victoria – 5-day centred average (blue) and 7-day (red). They seem to be bumping along around 1,200 a day after dropping from a peak near 2,000 around Oct 20. Ref number is 0.85:
Firefox says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 10:47 am
“Of course, were this to happen, it would be a disaster for the Greens. Just as you fervently hope Labor will lose, I hope equally that Labor might win. Albo has Labor in a good position….remarkable, all things considered.”
***
As I’ve said multiple times, I hope the Coalition is turfed out (as RDN used to say) and that the Greens are in the balance of power in one or both houses. If Greens voters really wanted the Libs to win, they would win all the time, because if we changed our preferences to them Labor would not have a hope against them. You need our support to defeat them, so stop pretending like we are trying to help the Coalition when we vehemently oppose them.
Green voters are Labor-positive, on the whole. They direct their prefs to Labor after taking a detour. If the Greens were to direct prefs to the LNP, their primary support would implode. It would fall into the very low single figures. Their Senate numbers would be wiped out. Rather than the Greens supporting Labor, it is Labor that prop up the Greens. This is the visible result in the Senate, where the Greens would only rarely win seats were it not for Labor prefs.
The Greens say they are opposed to the LNP. But the truth is they detest Labor and premise their strategies on extorting benefits and concessions from Labor. They overtly plan to pervert the results of elections, to take advantage of the unrepresentative nature of the Senate’s powers. The Constitution confers advantages to oppositionist/obstructive Senates. The Greens know it and seek to profit from it. At all times, their game is to disable Labor. They campaign at all times and all places to defeat Labor, and this lends support to the LNP.
This is a true story. The protection of the environment, the strength of the social estate and the cause of social justice are all held to ransom by the Greens.
Smith is staying in Parliament till the next Election in November next year.
Things might change in the interim.
Firefox
‘Labor does very often back environmental vandalism, including supporting the Libs and their mates.’
And the Greens sometimes vote with the Coalition. I don’t run around accusing them of being Liberals because of that.
Nor should I. It would be unfair and unjust.
But apparently I have higher standards than you or Quoll.
I remember back in my uni student days at Monash The Greens were so strong it caused the Lib/Lab alliance to form. Which brought much amusement to all observers.
Singing Bloos says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 11:48 am
The Greens say they are opposed to the LNP. But the truth is they detest Labor
_______________
I would say detest is too strong. The Greens are the party of the Intelligentsia, which has deserted Labor in the past two decades. The only educated people in Labor these days are either too old to change, or are wannabee candidates.
Firefox @ #898 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 7:47 am
That’s a problem and flaw with the Greens thinking.
You might hope that the Conservatives are removed from Government, but you only want it to be just removed.
This keeps them in a position to return at the following election.
A large Labor win would pretty much ensure multiple Labor Governments and provide the opportunity to entrench action that the Conservatives could never reverse.
Someone mentioned that Bowen said on Insiders that Labor would revive the French deal. I didn’t watch (to save my TV from the risk of me hurling a heavy object at it whenever Coorey appeared onscreen) and i cant see any mention of that in online media reports. Did he actually say that?
Boerwar @ #886 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 10:21 am
Wow! So much “whataboutism” in a single post. Is this a record for PB, or just a personal best for boerwar?
Firefox
‘Labor does very often back environmental vandalism, including supporting the Libs and their mates.’
And the Greens sometimes vote with the Coalition. I don’t run around accusing them of being Liberals because of that.
Nor should I. It would be unfair and unjust.
But apparently I have higher standards than you or Quoll.
Well said zoomster. The Queensland Labor government did also bring some pro-environment vegetation laws which the LNP want to undo.
That’s why the Greens its our way or the highway is crap. They voted against Kevin Rudd’s CPRS and now what we have in place now is still nothing.
What’s not even acknowledge by some Greens is that CPRS could have amended or improved later on. But the Greens we go hard or not at all literally harms their environmental agenda rather then helps it. They use it more for political point scoring then rather caring about doing anything about it.
“ A large Labor win would pretty much ensure multiple Labor Governments and provide the opportunity to entrench action that the Conservatives could never reverse.”
That goes against Marxist electoral theory: the Greens cannot have THAT, as it would threaten their long promised revolution. If the Green lose their ‘Lib-lab. same. same’ whipping boy, because a Labor government roles out reforms that stick, then they’ll rapidly become redundant to even their 10%. They’ll end up extinct alongside the Aust. Democrats. This is the real reason why they blocked the CRPS in late 2009. The real reason behind mobilising as the left wing to the LNP’s right wing, in the Adani pincer in 2018/19.
Firefox @ #918 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 8:14 am
😆 😆 😆
A small chunk of coal from an area rich in coal doesn’t mean they are mining.
You could probably walk around the site and pick such examples on the ground.
How’s the railway going?
Morrison might have gained votes among the happy-clappers wherever they were located, not only in Queensland. If the ‘prosperity gospel’ types tend to skew towards the LNP anyway, then the number of extra votes gained would not have been great.
On the other hand, the positive voting effect on more traditional previous and current church attendees is more problematic. The happy-clappers are seen more as an aberration and waving ones’s hands in the air is just ‘not done’ for some.
So I think that on balance those photos of Morrison may not have benefitted the LNP in Queensland as much as other factors such as the Palmer $millions and the Greens’ Adani convoy.
“Green voters are Labor-positive, on the whole.”
***
Holy shit! Where has The Artist gone?? What have you done with our Briefly?!?! 😀
Glad to hear you say it for once. 🙂
As I explained to that “Revisionist” person who turned up here the other day calling everyone dumb, made a fool of themselves, and hasn’t been seen since, that’s not how preferences work though. You know better than that too lol. If Greens voters decided to change their preferences to the Libs it wouldn’t hurt the Greens at all. Why would voters punish themselves for changing their own preference? It just makes no sense.
Yes thank God Labor were there leading from the front on SSM. Oh wait, that was the Greens. Successive Labor leaders opposed it.
“A small chunk of coal from an area rich in coal doesn’t mean they are mining.
You could probably walk around the site and pick such examples on the ground.
How’s the railway going?”
***
Well if Matt Canavan doesn’t do it for you, then try an actual miner at the Adani mine with freshly mined coal in hand. Bravus (Adani) machinery can be seen working in the background…
U.S. COVID update:
– New cases: 30,622 …………………… – New deaths: 350 ( weekend results )
– In hospital: 44,776 (-790)
– In ICU: 11,738 (-191)
775,095 total deaths now
Isn’t Adani building their own rail line? Shouldn’t be a problem for them:
The group has developed several railway lines in India and abroad. Adani owns the longest private railway lines spanning about 300 km in India.
Road, Metro and Rail | Adani Group
http://www.adani.com › businesses › road-metro-and-rail
We are building the 200km narrow-gauge Carmichael Rail project to connect the Carmichael Mine to the North Queensland Export Terminal via existing rail infrastructure.
This allows Bravus to export quality Queensland coal faster, to meet the global demand.
Australian companies Martinus and BMD are completing the civil construction works on the rail line with girders and concrete culverts being produced locally in central Queensland.
https://www.bravus.com.au/carmichael-rail/
Here is the rail line under construction:
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 12:14 pm
How’s the railway going?
_____________
The answer appears to be…. swimmingly.