This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
This is a very good podcast which discusses the battles going on within 21st century communities of Faith:
https://podcast.thebulwark.com/peter-wehner-faith-has-become-a-hood-ornament
Of course this is all possible due to the Royalty agreement struck between Adani and the Qld Labor government….but Shussshh about that?
Yes thank God Labor were there leading from the front on SSM. Oh wait, that was the Greens. Successive Labor leaders opposed it.
Who cares on this point? I don’t. It was a eventual change of the public minds on this issue with even some Labor leaders such as Kevin Rudd deciding to change.
Honestly Lurker this point doesn’t prove anything. The Labor party is also a broad church who has voters, party members, and MP’s particularly in the regions that haven’t always held this view.
If you think clinging on to the ‘Greens were the first!!!’. Is a great partisan point scoring shot it’s not.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 12:37 pm
If you think clinging on to the ‘Greens were the first!!!’. Is a great partisan point scoring shot it’s not.
_____________
I think it’s not a bad one, and it’s one that LGBTQIA+ will long remember.
Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has survived an assassination attempt carried out by an armed drone that targeted his residence early on Sunday.
Pro-Iran Shiite militia supporters have been camped outside the Green Zone for nearly a month after they rejected the results of Iraq’s parliamentary elections in which they were the biggest losers.
Two Iraqi officials told the Associated Press that seven security guards were injured in the attack, which occurred in Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone area.
They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to give official statements.
A statement released by state-run media said the failed assassination attempt was with “a booby-trapped drone that tried to target his residence in the Green Zone”.
It added that he was not harmed and was in good health.
Local residents heard the sound of an explosion followed by gunfire.
The Green Zone houses foreign embassies and government offices.
“The security forces are taking the necessary measures in connection with this failed attempt,” the statement said.
Pro-Iran Shiite militia supporters have been camped outside the Green Zone for nearly a month after they rejected the results of Iraq’s parliamentary elections in which they were the biggest losers.’] -ABC
Gulp!
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 12:07 pm
Someone mentioned that Bowen said on Insiders that Labor would revive the French deal. I didn’t watch (to save my TV from the risk of me hurling a heavy object at it whenever Coorey appeared onscreen) and i cant see any mention of that in online media reports. Did he actually say that?
No he didn’t.
No, Labor have never led on SSM. 🙄
Honestly, the tommy rot and nonsense that Greens jerks want you to take on face value about Labor has to be seen to be believed! Thank goodness I only see it second hand.
lizzie @ #956 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 9:56 am
I suppose that’s the problem when all your information comes from the US.
Part of Bowen this morning (Guardian updates at 9:49):
…
Construction has been delayed by finance.
…
That is the critical issue. The coalition is trying to solve that by financing it with government money.
I thought finance had delayed the rail start also, I suppose Adani has got enough money to put on a show.
citizen @ #960 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 10:09 am
It seems the “L” word is no longer taboo.
“Dolly’s” as mad as hell and isn’t going to take it anymore, counselling Rudd & Turnbull for being bitter & twisted:
[‘Australia’s longest-serving foreign minister has warned former prime ministers Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd their continued attacks on their successors only make them look mean-spirited and bitter.
Alexander Downer acknowledges the two men would deny that’s their intention but says that is nevertheless how the public perceives their behaviour.
Mr Turnbull this week weighed in to the dispute between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and French President Emmanuel Macron over the cancellation of the $90 billion submarines deal.
Mr Macron told reporters, “I don’t think, I know” when asked if the Australian leader had lied to him over the future of the deal before it was dumped in favour of an agreement to get nuclear submarine technology from the US and UK. Mr Morrison insisted the French should have known for months their contract was in troubled waters’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/you-ve-had-your-time-downer-tells-rudd-and-turnbull-to-get-on-with-their-lives-20211107-p596o1.html
Lurker says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 12:20 pm
Yes thank God Labor were there leading from the front on SSM. Oh wait, that was the Greens. Successive Labor leaders opposed it.
SSM got though when enough from all parties supported it. The Greens as with most things were pretty much irrelevant.
It will be the same with climate change.
Smith has come to a decision – a decision only he could make
I have a view that the persona he bought to politics is the reason for his decision
He can give it but he can not take it
So contrition and a period of rebuilding is not in his DNA
For Smith, it is all about attack – and personal attacks
What does annoy me is the Liberal Party stooge of the first order, Le Grand referring to “his seat of Kew”
Le Grand’s article is nonsense – “Guy emerges with his leadership enhanced”
Really?
But “his seat”
Sorry
As with every seat in the Parliament, it is owned by the electors
The electors choose who represents them – no seat is owned by any individual
Ask Downer – the “family seat” now in the hands of an Independent (and entrenched)
And hopefully Hunt learns the same lesson
Mavis @ #963 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 10:14 am
Correction
That is how Alexander “Man of the People” Downer wants people to perceive it.
Alexander Downer hasn’t been backward in coming forward with criticism of political opponents since he left politics. He does it regularly. In fact, he’s doing it now.
You’ve got to give to the young demonstrating in Glasgow. One makes his point holding a placard that reads, “even Andrew is sweating.”
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/cop-this-tens-of-thousands-brave-glasgow-weather-to-demand-climate-action-20211107-p596mv.html
frednk @ #964 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 1:15 pm
This is 100% true. We will have action on climate change only when enough MPs from all parties support it. Which they currently don’t, and may not even if Labor wins the next election.
The best way to ensure we get action in the next parliament is to vote for those who you know will vote for it, and won’t simply toe whatever the party line is at the time – i.e. vote for policies and not parties.
Vote independent. It works.
May be of interest to some.
There’s a good documentary on SBS catchup.
Stonehenge: the lost circle revealed.
Player One @ #969 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 10:26 am
How many independents have policies?
Back in 2017, the Fairfax press commissioned a survey into the political beliefs of Australians. I’ve attached a link below with more details-I hope it works! Being a retired marketing guy, I like to think of politics and elections as a Sales & Marketing process. The product offer being marketed consists of the party leader, individual candidates, party policies, and the party brand. The output of the party marketing process-and the interaction with the marketing process of rival political brands- is like a one-day sales event, but the output is votes, not dollars. Marketing 101 is to analyse the market, understand how it is structured, and then tailor the product offer to maximise revenue from that market structure. I therefore found the output from the Fairfax survey to be intensely interesting-the 7 political tribes of Australia. I think it really helps understand things like why Shorten bombed out in 2019, and why Labor is so cautious on climate change this time around.
This is a brief summary of the 7 tribes. Further details in the link.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-type-of-aussie-are-you-meet-the-7-new-political-tribes-20170203-gu57b2.html
Prudent Traditionalists-30% of the population, by far the biggest group. Socially conservative, often older, dislike change, concerned about safety and security, not career oriented, are OK with government intervening to keep things as they should be. Live in the suburbs and the bush, not the city. Fairly strongly Liberal, although Labor does get a chunk of this group too. National Party votes are almost all from this group.
Progressive Cosmopolitans-18%. Internationalist, embrace multiculturalism, better educated, often younger, have good jobs, positive about change to make the world better. Live in the cities. Not that keen on redistributing wealth though! Fairly strongly Labor, Liberal gets a chunk too.
Activist Egalitarians-18%. Socially progressive, want to tackle unfairness and injustice in society, want government spending and intervention to achieve that. Often lower income, more often female, scattered around the country, but strongest in Vic. and weakest in Qld. Pretty strongly Labor, and the best group for Greens, but you won’t find any Liberals here!
Disillusioned Pessimists-12% I find it hard to summarise this group. Don’t like where society or the country is going. Often low income and renting, but don’t want wealth redistribution or government intervention. Negative about immigration. Votes scatter, often to minor parties, but the Lib share is a bit low. Maybe Clive and Pauline do well here?
Ambitious Savers-10%. Young, optimistic for the future, focused on career, buying a house, building their finances, not too fussed about politics or social issues, support individual freedom rather than government intervention. Live mainly in the cities, have higher incomes. Pretty strongly Liberal, very low support for minor parties.
Lavish Moderate Conservatives-6%. Flashy, like the good life, like to look good. Tend to have high incomes, but not necessarily highly educated. Much more likely to be male, and over-represented in Qld. Socially liberal, but wary of change and government intervention. Mainly Liberal voters.
Anti-Establishment Firebrands-6%. Hate political correctness and government intervention. Believe in traditional values, don’t like immigration, know climate change is fake. Don’t care what others think. More often male, and haven’t been to university. Heroes are Donald Trump, John Howard and Pauline-votes Liberal or minor parties.
Of course real people don’t exactly fit stereotypes, real people are complicated-but this seems to me to be a pretty good way to look at the Australian political market. Labor’s challenge is that only 2 of these 7 groups, representing just 36% of the population, are naturally pro-Labor and in favour of a progressive policy agenda. I suspect that at the state level, Labor does much better with the Prudent Traditionalists than they do federally-we know that Labor is often very successful at state level. How can Labor achieve that federally? Shorten’s agenda gave Labor a bit of a boost in the cities, maybe with Progressive Cosmopolitans, but I suspect the Prudent Traditionalists in the suburbs and regions were frightened by it. Labor has no chance of winning if they antagonise this group! Are there opportunities for Labor with the Ambitious Savers? These people probably mistrust Labor on tax. Maybe going big with childcare support will get their attention?
Thank you if you’ve read through all this. I think it’s a good way to understand why politicians say and do the things they do. What does Labor needs to do, to build a winning coalition from these groups?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 1:19 pm
Mavis @ #963 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 10:14 am
…
[‘Alexander Downer acknowledges the two men would deny that’s their intention but says that is nevertheless how the public perceives their behaviour.’]
…
[‘Correction
That is how Alexander “Man of the People” Downer wants people to perceive it.’]
Yes, I’d agree with that. I recall when he became the LOTO, saying something like, “I’m a Tory to the bottom of my fishnet stockings.” Poor “Dolly” only lasted 7 months in the job.
Had an exciting three hours yesterday watching my great-niece Mikayla playing for the Brisbane Heat against the Melbourne Renegades in the highest scoring game in the history of the Womens Big Bash League.
Mikayla didn’t have a memorable innings (caught and bowled for 7) but the two teams put on an amazing and historic 20-20 by scoring a total of 399 runs. The Heat incredibly got to within 15 runs in their almost impossible run chase, after the Renegades put up 207 for their 20 overs.
The Heat’s losing inning of 192 would have been enough to win all but three matches in the previous 300 contests since the WBBL began in 2015
Two diminutive Indian imports were the stars for the Renegades. Harmanpreet Kaur registered an amazing six 6’s and four 4’s in an astonishing 65 off 32 balls. Jemimah Rodrigues had 52 runs off 31 balls including 10 4’s. Kaur became the first Indian player in the league to surpass 1,000 runs.
Both players probably weigh not much more than 100 pounds soaking wet and stand just a bit over five feet. But they displayed incredible power and finesse against the Heat bowlers.
The Heat had an easier time of it today when they had a 5 wicket win over the Sydney Thunder. This included a three wicket performance by the Heat’s even smaller Indian bowler Poonam Yadav.
And yes Mikayla had a better inning, batting at four and steadying the Heat ship with a middle order 33 that allowed the team to cruise to a relatively easy win.
frednk @ #568 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 1:15 pm
Bill Shorten did not oppose it, nor did Albo.
Parramatta Moderate
I enjoyed that. I think I might be an Activist Egalitarian, although I’m not very “activist”.
However, I do find it difficult to work out how Labor can tread the narrow path through that lot to gain a majority.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #566 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 1:13 pm
Now that’s more like it.
‘How would anybody trust this bloke as prime minister of Australia?’
There’s the killer part of Labor’s campaign.
A compilation of Scotty’s lies then kaboom ‘How would anybody trust this bloke as prime minister of Australia?’
lizzie @ #560 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 12:56 pm
Does anyone else throw up in their mouth at the mention of eating raw chicken?
That Tom Barnett bloke sounds like he needs professional help.
Professor Adrian Esterman
@profesterman
·
4h
For Victoria, another 1173 local cases and 9 deaths. The 7-day moving average is up from 1173 to 1195, and the Reff up from 0.85 to 0.92. So, in both NSW and Victoria, we are starting to see the impact of opening up
It took the Coalition to introduce SSM. Rudd Gillard Rudd nothing.
mundo
The only attack of salmonella poisoning I have suffered was from chicken (even though it was cooked, not raw) and I have been cautious ever since. Perhaps he catches it on the run, so to speak, and eats it warm, before it has had a chance to grow any bugs. He’s mad.
To avoid allegations of pro-Labor bias, I will switch to an area of tremendous COALition capability deliver success, new submarines. I was struck by this article about Australia’s submarine force.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-already-has-a-submarine-capability-gap/
I suspect the author is well to the right of myself in political leaning. Nevertheless he appears to identify an inconsistency in Defense’s logic.
If you read what Defense Chiefs said about Australia’s submarine capability to Senate estimates before the nuclear sub announcement, and the stated reasons for making the change to nuclear, you might be forgiven for thinking Defense chiefs lied to Senate Estimates.
Statement before switch to nuclear on 24/3/21:
Q ‘If the last sub will be delivered in the 2040s and the first delivery is estimated to be in 2032–33, won’t these subs be obsolete by the time they are ready for the water?’ (page 62 here).
A The officials answered, ‘No, they won’t be obsolete by the time they enter the water. We are also designing this submarine to … keep them superior throughout their service life.’
After switch to nuclear on 1/11/21:
Prime Minister Scott Morrison, discussing the events that led to the cancellation of the Attack class deal with France’s Naval Group, said that the first submarine would have been obsolete almost the minute it got in the water. And it was ‘the unanimous view of all the chiefs of our services and defence force, that this was a capability that was not going to meet our needs’.
We know discussion of the nuclear subs began with UK in 2020. So who was lying – Morrison or the Defense chiefs?
Steelydan @ #982 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 10:58 am
The Coalition never introduced SSM legislation.
It was a Private Members Bill sponsored across Party lines.
Remember around the time of Kim Beazley being opposition leader and all we got was he built dud submarines (which were not ask the Americans when they lost aircraft carriers in war games due the dud subs) and a poor economy. When will Labor turn on the blow torch.
Then Abbott and hockey every day Labor can’t manage the economy and look what is happening now. When will Labor turn on the blowtorch?
Steelydan @ #982 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 10:58 am
It took the Coalition to introduce SSM. Rudd Gillard Rudd nothing.
another bullshit lie.
Labor allowed a SSM vote back in 2012, but the whole LNP voted against it. Which is very fitting for a party that suppose to be all about crossing the floor.
Steelydan
Are you Scott Morrison?
Both Labor and Liberal have been all over the place on SSM. Only the Greens were consistent, for 20 years, and opposed Howard’s 2004 ‘reforms’.
We should be trying to address our economic gap before our military one :P.
Even if only half of this is true….
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/you-ve-had-your-time-downer-tells-rudd-and-turnbull-to-get-on-with-their-lives-20211107-p596o1.html
“The former foreign minister has counselled Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd to stop attacking the prime ministers who follow them, saying it makes them look bitter.”
Says the former foreign minister.
“Former” being “Former”.
lizzie
Doubt it.
Lurker @ #989 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 11:22 am
Really, Labor were moving to a position of total support.
If it was still an issue today it would not be a matter of conscience, but the Parties absolute position.
With Morrison’s brand at an all time low and his ministry littered with severely damaged goods, it would be an opportune time for Albanese to refresh his front bench with new blood and force some of the old guard from the Rudd era into retirement at the next election.
lizzie @ #991 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 11:24 am
Hard to lay blame on the curry.
30 minutes with Morrison would be enough to give anyone the shits. 😆
What is it with Morrison and these curries? And he’s always taking a selfie with them. Perhaps he’s just proud he can cook. More likely he’s trying to kill two birds with one stone.
1. Appeal to women, showing he cooks and is not a retrograde misogynist who expects his wife to do the cooking.
2. Appeal to the Indian community, a growing part of the electorate.
Same Sex Relationships (Enduring Equality) Bill 2004
The Bill sought to ensure people in same-sex relationships receive the same rights as people in heterosexual relationships in all areas of the law (including marriage).
Sponsor: Michael Organ MP (Greens, NSW)
Same-Sex Marriage Bill 2006
The Bill sought to amend the Marriage Act 1961 (Cth) to ensure that same-sex marriages are given equal status to heterosexual marriages, including repealing the definition of ‘marriage’ as the union between a man and a woman and repealing provisions which prevent same-sex marriages entered into under the law of another country from being recognised in Australia.
Sponsors: Natasha Stott Despoja (AD, SA), Andrew Bartlett (AD, Qld)
Marriage (Relationships Equality) Amendment Bill 2007
The Bill sought to amend the Marriage Act 1961 (Cth) to remove discriminatory references based on sexual orientation and gender identity; and allow marriage regardless of sex, sexual orientation or gender identity.
Sponsor: Senator Kerry Nettle (Greens, NSW)
Marriage (Relationships Equality) Amendment Bill 2008
Government: ALP
Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd
The Bill sought to amend the Marriage Act 1961 (Cth) to amend the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples.
Sponsor: Senator Kerry Nettle (Greens, NSW)
Marriage Equality Amendment Bill 2009
The Bill sought to amend the Marriage Act 1961 (Cth) to remove all discriminatory references based on sexual orientation and gender identity; and allow marriage regardless of sex, sexuality and gender identity.
Sponsor: Senator Sarah Hanson-Young (Greens, SA)
2010: SHY again
2012: Bandt and Wilkie
2013 & 2014 SHY again
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1718/Quick_Guides/SSMarriageBills
The Greens and the Democrats lead the way for marriage equality in the Australian Parliament.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 2:31 pm
With Morrison’s brand at an all time low and his ministry littered with severely damaged goods, it would be an opportune time for Albanese to refresh his front bench with new blood and force some of the old guard from the Rudd era into retirement at the next election.
____________
Very good point Rex. He has improved it over time but he should get rid of Shorten and Don Farrell.
Can’t see the point of Jim Chalmers to be honest. The man is invisible, and when he speaks, all I can see is a dopey grin and big ears.
I don’t even think Shorten will get into Cabinet after the next election. He’s lost control of the Victorian Right and there are younger Right Victorians who want a shot. He may not get back in. Good.