This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
The Libs on this blog seem worried for Labor.. offering gratuitous advice better directed at the Shire Liar… he’s the one that’s in trouble.. what with a totally corrupt & inept cabinet & all
Much easier for a small group to form a consensus than a larger one.
“Unfortunately” democracy requires that the view of a minority does not trump the majority.
Shorten, Farrell, Carr, O’Neil, Burke, Bowen, O’Connor, Neumann, Sterle, Perrett, Thistlethwaite….
Lurker:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 2:31 pm
[‘2. Appeal to the Indian community, a growing part of the electorate.’]
Yeh. 700,000 & growing. Perhaps Albanese should get his kadai out, learn to cook a few Indian dishes.
‘“Unfortunately” democracy requires that the view of a minority does not trump the majority.’
***
That’s why the Greens and LGBTIQ+ community have brought the people with us. It didn’t happen over night, took far longer than it should have, and there is still much work to be done to achieve equality and end discrimination, but SSM is now a reality in Australia.
Nick McKenzie
@Ageinvestigates
·
58m
Scott Morrison’s flawed fed ICAC proposal ensures state MPs face far more scrutiny than federal politicians.
@theage
@smh
@60Mins
from 8.30 tonight we examine Morrison gov minister impropriety.
@AngusGrigg
doing Obeid
@4corners
Monday. Will PM stand by weak fed integrity body?
Clearly the Labor shadow cabinet skews old.
I wonder if it’s the lack of pensions and outside employability that keeps many hanging on?
Heck of a problem for Albo. When you look at the lack of talent in shadow cabinet and someone like Claire O’Neill is denied a cabinet spot – somethings not right is it ?
Minns and Albanese really should be capitalising much more than they are on Govt integrity.
It’s a massive free hit.
The net zero 2050 issue is being addressed by business and state Govts. It’s a dead issue for Albanese and Minns. They need to recalibrate and focus on Govt integrity.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #971 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 1:30 pm
Why would you vote for an independent without policies?
Oh, I forgot – you’re a Labor voter, which means you are planning to vote for a party without policies.
Firefox @ #1004 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 11:50 am
You seem to be trying to take credit for Labor going through the same process.
“No, Labor have never led on SSM. ”
***
This is no reflection on Senator Wong at all, but I think you may have forgotten about someone…
Australia’s first openly gay parliamentarian, Bob Brown, with his partner Paul Thomas.
Steelydan says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 1:58 pm
It took the Coalition to introduce SSM. Rudd Gillard Rudd nothing.
____________________________
Only Turnbull could do what Labor couldn’t – which was to find a way to get around a whole bunch of immoral cruel fuckwits in the Coalition. Mind you, his job was made a lot easier by the fact that he wasn’t hobbled by a Coalition wide view that it was better to sell their mothers into slavery than to appear to hand Labor any sort of victory on any matter at all.
“You seem to be trying to take credit for Labor going through the same process.”
***
Labor only supported it when it was politically convenient for them to do so. That’s the sad truth of it. The Greens have been supporters from the start, even before it had majority support.
Player One @ #1008 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 11:54 am
Well I’ve never seen one from an independent going to an election.
The best you get are just vague motherhood statements which you seem happy to accept, but when Labor lays out its in detail it’s never enough for you. 😆
So many policy sell outs by Labor this term of office:
High income tax cuts – waved through
Climate change targets – dropped
Franking credits/cgt changes – dumped
There really is no credible question to why Labor is the answer.
Both Labor and Liberal have been all over the place on SSM. Only the Greens were consistent, for 20 years, and opposed Howard’s 2004 ‘reforms’.
Labor won the 2007 federal election and (undid workchoices/ratified the Kyoto agreement/the apology for the stolen generations etc). And you just troll Labor suggesting they should have supported SSM from the get go even if it meant getting wedged on the issue.
And yes, there were people in the Labor party from religious backgrounds who were apprehensive of supporting it at first. It goes back to my point that Labor is a broad church and umbrella party trying to win government. While the Greens only worry is maintaining that 10% of the vote they have in the polls. From their largely inner city/professional/ tertiary educated constituents.
P1’s petite bourgeoise tory pom poms are out again. Finshing the weekend as she started it.
Firefox @ #1012 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 12:00 pm
Bullshit.
Labor’s position showed a clear progression towards total support which would now be the case if the issue was still a current one.
Labor only supported it when it was politically convenient for them to do so. That’s the sad truth of it. The Greens have been supporters from the start, even before it had majority support.
__________________________________
They didn’t do it until it had majority support from actual and potential greens voters. It’s one of the privileges available to a political party that could never win in its own right and has to rely on a parasitic relationship with a major party to have any influence (ditto the Country Party).
The difference is, of course, that the parasite Country Party has worked out a mutually beneficial relationship with its host, while the Greens are trying to suck the blood out of its putative host.
Lizzie and Parramatta Moderate,
Ditto from me. I am definitely an activist egalitarian, although my “activism” is of the moderate variety. I get on really well with everyone from my local Uniting church, where my mother goes. It is noted for being gay friendly, and very strong on wanting climate action and better treatment of refugees. They also provide real help to the many poorer people of our local area, and feed them from a community garden, where before COVID they could sleep one night a week of homeless. They are pretty evenly split between Labor and Greens voters, as far as I can tell.
And I do get on well with progressive cosmopolitans, although I am more interested in social justice that these groups of my friends.
The Hillsong church is just around the corner from me – grrr – they are full of lavish mod-cons as far as I can tell.
I am not sure why my mind drifted to the local churches when I made this post. I am not religious at all. But perhaps it is very obvious which tribe each is favoured by.
Unfortunately, the local Uniting church has a regular congregation of about 50 people I would guess (on a good day). At Hillsong, they bus them in by the hundreds 🙁
Labor has a hard job to stitch together a majority of the Australian population. This seems to be true of the UK, and even Germany and France.
The US – I will never understand US politics. Some amazing voters and politicians, who never do as well as the dregs and deplorables who love Trump, and think that “socialised medicine” and any sort of government help for people in need is the very work of the devil himself.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1013 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 3:00 pm
Apparently, you’ve never looked.
Player One @ #1020 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 12:11 pm
You seem to have varying standards as to what you regard policy.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1016 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 3:02 pm
Don’t panic, A_E. I don’t expect people like you to think for yourself.
Fulvio Sammut says:
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 9:01 pm
She might even have danced with the man who danced with a girl who danced with the Prince of Wales!
Douglas and Milko
http://postimg.cc/k6Ymxb0n
I know, I can’t help myself. But Fulvio’s one-liner brought back memories.
On this particular evening, in the ballroom at Government House in Ottawa, I didn’t get to dance with a girl who danced with the Prince of Wales, because we didn’t change partners.
But Charlie and Pierre Trudeau, nothwithstanding, I was the best looking bloke on the floor and if I may say so, my bride the most enchanting lady, although you can only see her back.
Trudeau’s partner was Julie Maloney, Miss Canada 1970, and 21-year-old Charles has a good grip on Trudeau’s niece Jocelyne Rouleau,
Eight months later, Trudeau, 51, married Margaret Sinclair, 22, after a secret six-month engagement. Nine months and three weeks later, Justin Pierre James Trudeau was born. Justin turns 50 on Christmas Day.
Great photo Beguiled again. I love your stories.
Are you back in Australia yet?
Indies have it good.
They can promise knowing they never have to deliver.
Cathy McGowan’s policies were great – basically what Labor was offering but with a free set of steak knives – but she didn’t deliver on any of them, because she couldn’t.
TPOF @ #1011 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 2:56 pm
Crap, it took the coalition to get out of the way.
Turnbull voted against the motion introduced under Gillard (Gillard voted no as well, but then she was opposed to any form of marriage) the entire Liberal party did. It was after all their policy. Marriage was between a man and a woman according to the Liberal party’s own amendment to the Marriage Act.
Douglas and Milko says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 3:21 pm
Great photo Beguiled again. I love your stories.
Are you back in Australia yet?
———————————————–
Thank you.
Have booked a return for Dec. 2.
Have to have a covid test within 72 hours of first flight and then on arrival in Sydney have another one within 24 hours, and one on day 7. Just what you need after 30 hours enroute.
Like the idea of only admitting fully vaccinated returnees. I’m hoping to get a booster shot before we leave or soon after arrival.
More details of the cracks in the Sydney SW LRT vehicles. The cracks look bad; they are clearly propagating and could result in structural failure.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-06/images-of-sydney-inner-west-light-rails-cracks-emerge/100600216
Looking more closely, I note that the CAF Urbos vehicles in question have fixed bogies/articulated body LRVs rather than pivoting bogies. (The ones I saw in Nantes had pivotting bogies.) The latter are dynamically superior with less stress introduced in tight radii corners. If these vehicles were introduced on track with tight radii corners without checking design for stress, that is a major stuff-up.
The Sydney SE LRT vehicles, Alstom Citadis, have pivotting bogies and should not be subject to this problem.
Lizzie & D+M, when I did the test I was 50/50 Progressive Cosmopolitan/Activist Egalitarian. But that seems rare in western Sydney. Most of my friends and former workmates fit the Prudent Traditionalist stereotype.
There should be things Labor can do to appeal more to this group, without betraying their core principles. Talk tougher on “law and order”. More talk about new kit for the military. Don’t let the LNP own this space! You can see why Morrison thought nuclear subs were a good idea-wedges Labor (or so he thought) and calms the fears of the Tradionalists about the Yellow Peril! After all, which party was it that successfully defended Australia from imperial Japan in WW2?
Socrates
As I suggested yesterday, they might not have used the appropriate duty cycle load assumptions for fatigue testing – if, in fact, they did the test.
BK
No, possibly not.
Also what were they doing for vehicle inspections, if cracking got that bad on all vehicles before being found?
I can understand why the Greens are frustrated with democracy.
That 90% who won’t vote for the Greens are a pest.
Regarding the curries, who actually puts all the ingredients into separate little bowls when they are cooking at home? Just makes for more washing up.
Inside story has another article from Sean Kelly on his new book on Morrison. Curries feature in it.
https://insidestory.org.au/inventing-scomo/
‘A week after he became prime minister, he gave his first one-on-one interview to a newspaper, for the Murdoch tabloids printed in most of the nation’s capital cities. He said of that first week in power, “Two major things didn’t happen, I didn’t get my footy tips in on Thursday night and I am not going to get to cook a curry tonight.”’
Henry
Thank you. I think the more appropriate word would be: “relic.”
“ I’ll never forget how much harder Murdoch, Sunrise, Today, and Pete Fucking Evans made all this.
And I guarantee you a decent portion of the ordinary – nay, extraordinary – 5 million Melburnians just getting on with it won’t either.”
https://theshot.net.au/general-news/melbourne-is-not-a-city-in-revolt-the-truth-is-far-more-incredible-and-far-more-boring/
Loris says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 3:51 pm
Regarding the curries, who actually puts all the ingredients into separate little bowls when they are cooking at home? Just makes for more washing up.
_____________
It’s a sign of an organised mind. Could be how he rolls but also could be image related.
I doubt that Turnbull and Rudd will lose any sleep after being told to shut up by Lord Downer.
I wish former foreign ministers would stop telling former prime ministers to shut up.
DB,
A cracker of a piece and much closer to the reality than our MSM, conservative politicians and loony tune citizens would tell us.
There is quite a lot of difference between democracy and mob rule, which many here seem unaware of.
‘You’ve had your time’: Downer tells Rudd and Turnbull to get on with lives’.
Says the guy who was Foreign Minister about 15 years ago.
I bought Sean Kelly’s book on Morrison, ‘The Game’. I can’t wait to read it.
Could also be the sign of ingredients prepared for him by someone else, as in “The Cook and the Chef”.
The latter are dynamically superior with less stress introduced in tight radii corners.
Soc, the LRVs go around tight corners all day long as they go in and out of Central Station.
GG, yes a good piece, but the media who make money from fringe idiots will always zero in on said idiots and distort the real picture.
I always remember a kid I (tried) taught who did nothing but sit and wait for some other kid to do something bad/silly/rude and then his face just beamed with delight as he sat and watched the event play out.
He was dumb and a load of rocks, lazy as all hell and he typifies what I imagine to be the demographic that Scumrise, Toady, and the Murdochracy thrive on.
“ Don’t panic, A_E. I don’t expect people like you to think for yourself.”
I hardly expect you capable of thought at all: bludger’ s textbook example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
lizzie,
“who actually puts all the ingredients into separate little bowls when they are cooking at home? … It’s a sign of an organised mind.”
Me.
Dog’s Breakfast @ #1078 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 5:04 pm
And me. 😀
I do it because I do prep and then go and sit down for a couple of hours before I cook.