This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
https://www.greenpeace.org.au/australia-pacific-bully-international-outcast/
It was Loris who asked the original quetion, not me. This quoting style we have is often misleading.
DB,
The article is dated September 2020, and refers to easing of 5km travel restrictions during Melbournes second lockdown.
DB,
I’m pretty sure that Milner’s point was that people are just getting on with their life now lockdown has passed. Lockdown was a pain. But most people accept that it kept us all safe. They are enthusiastic about
the vaccination process as the passport for keeping us all safe and being able to resume a normal life.
Non-Vaxxers are a minority who can get on board or self exclude themselves from normal life. It’s their choice.
I’m expecting Health Insurers to start stipulating people need to be vacccinated to access Health Insurance.
@David_Ritter
Scott Morrison has left #CoP26 with Australia’s global reputation clearly tarnished.
___________________
Bullshit. If we had a reputation on climate change it was already pretty shitty. In any case, very few countries have a good reputation on climate change. The reaction to COP26 is all about domestic politics. The same things are being said about all right of centre government returning from it. Opponents of center left government returning are presenting different arguments. But it’s all about domestic politics either way.
“I do it because I do prep and then go and sit down for a couple of hours before I cook.”
I used to do it when I was allowed into the kitchen. Good times. The only difference from Morrison was that I actually cooked the curry. Oh, and not leering into a conveniently placed camera with a snaggle-toothed look reminiscent of a donkey eating an apple.
My fathers side of the family is in Canada and Australia’s name or Morrison’s has not been mentioned. What was spoke about ad nauseam was Canada’s per capita Co2 emissions.
In Sweden they claim that 99% of their rubbish is recycled, less than 1% ends up in landfills. That’s because they burn it all for heating and claim it is recycling. They even import garbage and burn it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caw-969W-D4
Can we start calling anti/non-vaxxers pro-COVID/disease/plague?
It goes on all over Europe to be honest. And they put on EV subsidies and some Australians point to them as exemplars.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1047 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 5:04 pm
It amuses me that people who invoke Dunning-Kruger don’t seem to understand it is a miscalibration between one’s opinion of one’s ability and one’s actual ability which applies as much to highly intelligent people as to those of lower intelligence.
The fact that people invoke it without understanding even the most basic facts about it would seem to indicate they are generally part of the latter group, rather than the former.
Or perhaps they are simply a rusted-on member of a political party and therefore unused to thinking for themselves.
If you can hold your breath and push through the know-it-all wanking, pro-coalition foaming and general bullshit, there is some interesting information at this site. Especially regarding track and vehicle maintenance.
It is my understanding that the CSELR uses fixed truck/bogies too. Try standing at the corner of Chalmers and Randle Streets.
I’d hate to live in the nearby units.
https://www.busaustralia.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=71528&start=1100
”
Steelydan @ #982 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 10:58 am
It took the Coalition to introduce SSM. Rudd Gillard Rudd nothing.
Nickosays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 2:15 pm
Labor allowed a SSM vote back in 2012, but the whole LNP voted against it. Which is very fitting for a party that suppose to be all about crossing the floor.
Lurkersays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 2:22 pm
Both Labor and Liberal have been all over the place on SSM. Only the Greens were consistent, for 20 years, and opposed Howard’s 2004 ‘reforms’.
”
Look at above 3 posts today.
Steelydun expects people not to remember what LNP did when in opposition during RGR years. He even expects people to forget that Abbott government did not go anywhere near the SSM. He expects people to forget that SSM was introduced as a compromise in the form of non-binding plebiscite during Turnbull government time and to stymie its debate. But when SSM plebiscite was overwhelming success especially in LNP electorates, all the MPs like Abbott, Morrison, Joyce abstained from voting in Parliament (Dutton face was like it was hit by thunderbolt was SSM legislation was passed with overwhelming majority)
When Nicko pointed to the fact that ALP government introduced SSM vote and LNP voted against it en block, Steelydun was totally silent and Lurker introduced a red herring saying Greens were always in favour of SSM.
This is what happens on this blog regularly. LNP supporters BS about things, Green supporters introduce red herrings and Labor supporters are forever defending ALP record or past mistakes.
I have real concerns how many countries are going to reach CO2 targets, NZ is going to buy 2/3rds through buying carbon credits.
Who from and how is it going to be policed. Buying credits from third world countries is fraught with danger. Millions of acres have been bought off Brazil only to find out they have been logged. A Trillion dollars to third world countries is not going to bring them up to our economic level.
An example is the was the cancelation of debts of 18 low-income countries, most of them in Africa, to free up resources to tackle poverty. Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guyana, Honduras, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia All back to were they where.
I am obviously a disorganised person and cook. I try to minimise workload and washing up when cooking!
The episode of Jay Weatherill bagging an embarrassed Frydenberg in defence of SA’s renewables is on repeat on Twitter at the moment and the first thing that sprang to my mind was how similarly Joshie has treated Victoria over the pandemic months. Nasty. And he had much more hair then!
In PB 100% of the rubbish is re-cycled every day!
Ven says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 5:43 pm
When Nicko pointed to the fact that ALP government introduced SSM vote and LNP voted against it en block
_____________
That was a private members bill. Same as the Bill that eventually passed under Turnbull’s Prime Ministership.
Regarding the 7 tribes of voters, why wouldn’t Labor target the disillusioned pessimists ? If this analysis was done again, they might be the “anti-vaxxer” tribe who seem to be drifting to the UAP. At 12% of the population, they would also seem to be the type of swinging voter who can change elections.
“Disillusioned Pessimists despair about the direction of society and our country. They feel pessimistic about the future and let down by the community.”
So give them something to look forward to and get over their despair.
Loris @ #1069 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 5:53 pm
Target them? Labor is the reason we have so many of them! 🙁
Nice to see Ven recognise my post, of course LNP supporters usually ignore them, but I don’t blame them as they can’t defend the putrid Abbott leadership and its time as opposition.
OF course Abbotts opposition, was herald as a masterstroke at the time by the usual suspects.
I do hope that Ms Wilson doesn’t accept Frydenberg’s nasty streak as her model.
lizzie @ #1104 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 5:57 pm
Imagine what the media would say if it was a Labor ‘apparatchik’. Well, that’s what they would call them for a start. Then they would complain about them having no ‘real world’ experience outside of politics.
When it’s a Liberal, they morph into the more friendly, ‘former staffer’. 🙄
Ven
Typical Labor you talk but you don’t do.
Did SSM happen under the Labor Government of Rudd Gillard Rudd. No
It happened under the Coalition.
I remember the ALP going on and on and on and on and on about much the plebiscite of which we should have more of was going to cause irreparable damage to gay people, suicides all sorts of things were going to happen. Did it, No. Australia wanted SSM they got it. During a Coalition Government, Labor talks Coalition does.
”
Mavissays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 2:43 pm
Lurker:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 2:31 pm
[‘2. Appeal to the Indian community, a growing part of the electorate.’]
Yeh. 700,000 & growing. Perhaps Albanese should get his kadai out, learn to cook a few Indian dishes.
”
Most of the people of Indian origin came in 3 waves.
1. A small group teachers and Doctors early to mid 70s.
2. Then a bigger group came as skilled migrants during Hawke- Keating years as IT professionals and Engineers.
3. The biggest group came during Howard and RGR years mostly as students and IT professionals.
Overwhelming group of people of Indian origin live in either Sydney or Melbourne because most of their opportunities exist in those cities.
Roy Orbison @ #1086 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 5:22 pm
😆 😆 😆
Steelydan @ #1073 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 3:00 pm
Labor allowed a vote on the issue without a plebiscite.
Labor did not bind its Members to vote against it, the Conservatives did.
You really are pushing shit up hill on this issue.
Ven,
Labor already has National President, Michelle Rowland, who is a Fijian Indian as I understand it, and an Indians for Labor group. The Junior Vice President of NSW Labor is also an Indian-Australian. We didn’t just discover them when our pollsters told us they were a growing demographic.
The disillusioned pessimists are disillusioned with governments. Specifically, neoliberal policies is my reading of it. So unless Player One is talking about state governments, then Labor has been in power for only 6 of the last 25 years so how are they the reason? Unless they are 60+??
The Coalition were dragged kicking and screaming to a Plebiscite on SSM and that’s as far as they were prepared to go, thinking they could swing the vote against it with their ‘Just Vote No’ campaign.
GG, exactly. Most of us do what is needed to ‘get through’ and accept that we’re in this together. Individualism has been made toxic and something like <5% of the population attempt to promote their freedom to bully the rest of us.
”
TPOFsays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 3:09 pm
Labor only supported it when it was politically convenient for them to do so. That’s the sad truth of it. The Greens have been supporters from the start, even before it had majority support.
__________________________________
They didn’t do it until it had majority support from actual and potential greens voters. It’s one of the privileges available to a political party that could never win in its own right and has to rely on a parasitic relationship with a major party to have any influence (ditto the Country Party).
The difference is, of course, that the parasite Country Party has worked out a mutually beneficial relationship with its host, while the Greens are trying to suck the blood out of its putative host.
”
BINGO!!!
In nutshell that is how our political system works.
An article on Sweden –
https://www.blueoceanstrategy.com/blog/trash-treasure-sweden-recycling-revolution/
They do not ‘burn it all’ and they are making real reductions in carbon emissions.
Rubbish sent to landfills emits greenhouse gases, so using this rubbish uses these emissions and saves burning another emitting fuel.
”
Douglas and Milkosays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 3:11 pm
Lizzie and Parramatta Moderate,
………………..
…….
……………………
I am not sure why my mind drifted to the local churches when I made this post. I am not religious at all. But perhaps it is very obvious which tribe each is favoured by.
”
D&M
Although you may categorize yourself as someone who ticked “No religion” (which was 30%) in previous census, your moral upbringing comes from Christian background.
A lot of people may consider themselves as atheist or agnostic their moral upbringing is the religion into which they were born.
”
mundosays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 3:24 pm
TPOF @ #1011 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 2:56 pm
Steelydan says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 1:58 pm
It took the Coalition to introduce SSM. Rudd Gillard Rudd nothing.
____________________________
Only Turnbull could do what Labor couldn’t – which was to find a way to get around a whole bunch of immoral cruel fuckwits in the Coalition. Mind you, his job was made a lot easier by the fact that he wasn’t hobbled by a Coalition wide view that it was better to sell their mothers into slavery than to appear to hand Labor any sort of victory on any matter at all.
Crap, it took the coalition to get out of the way.
Turnbull voted against the motion introduced under Gillard (Gillard voted no as well, but then she was opposed to any form of marriage) the entire Liberal party did. It was after all their policy. Marriage was between a man and a woman according to the Liberal party’s own amendment to the Marriage Act.
”
It is nice to see mundo diversifying and putting thought into his posts.
Many people act morally and ethically despite, not because of, the religion they were born into.
“Labor talks Coalition does.” LoL!!
I think our Steam Powered Appliance is overheating and its few bits devoted to info processing and comms are getting bent out of shape. 🙂 Fun to watch it humiliating itself again though.
Ven @ #1083 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 3:18 pm
Having lived and travelled through many culturally diverse and different countries I’ve found that basic morals differ very little.
”
Lurkersays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 4:38 pm
Loris says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 3:51 pm
Regarding the curries, who actually puts all the ingredients into separate little bowls when they are cooking at home? Just makes for more washing up.
_____________
It’s a sign of an organised mind. Could be how he rolls but also could be image related.
”
Have you ever cooked curries let alone tasty ones? If not please desist from comments like this.
When will there be good news?
FS,
Many people act morally and ethically who follow their religious beliefs
zoomster says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 6:09 pm
An article on Sweden –
https://www.blueoceanstrategy.com/blog/trash-treasure-sweden-recycling-revolution/
They do not ‘burn it all’ and they are making real reductions in carbon emissions.
Rubbish sent to landfills emits greenhouse gases, so using this rubbish uses these emissions and saves burning another emitting fuel.
_________________________
I thought you didn’t want any engagement with me. You are wrong of course. Burning rubbish creates emissions too. Burning plastic will do that.
Reports have shown that incinerators in Europe release dioxin, one of the most toxic chemicals known to man. When pollution is not released into the air, it’s captured in toxic ash. In fact, Sweden was recently exposed for dumping their toxic incinerator ash on an island off Norway.
Incineration in Europe often gets confused with recycling, making some countries like Sweden look like they’re doing a lot better than they really are. The number of incinerators in Europe also creates a perverse incentive to produce more waste and avoid recycling, composting, and reduction.
https://www.no-burn.org/europewasteburning/
Australia is one of the most developed nations in the world. Been in the top few since the HDI began one of the highest in nearly every good measure, education, health, wealth, and one of the lowest on bad indices like corruption etc.
The majority of the time Australia has been led by the Coalition.
Enough said.
Steelydan @ #1093 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 3:36 pm
When did those indices start?
Steelydan, that’s post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning.
Stupid people do it.
Loris, I found it hard to get my head around the “disillusioned pessimist” voter as I’m not sure I know any. Unlike all the other tribes, they seem a bit vaguely defined. Talking about more manufacturing in Australia might appeal to this group-which Labor is doing, as is the LNP. More rights for people who rent should appeal too, although that’s a state issue.
Emissions which were going to be released anyway are released in a way which replaces other emissions.
If they didn’t burn rubbish, they would burn another fossil fuel.
(And I retain the right to engage with whomever I want to, if it suits me).
GG, that too.
“The majority of the time Australia has been led by the Coalition.”
Labor led us during the Second World War. The Coalition led into the Vietnam War.
Keating was the best Treasurer we ever had. Howard was one of the worst.
That sums it up for me.
Steelydan, you really are a hilarious prick.
P1 strikes me as an example of a disillusioned pessimist.