This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
And that is true too, GG.
Sorry, thought I had lost a post.
zoomster says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 6:40 pm
(And I retain the right to engage with whomever I want to, if it suits me).
____________
you’ll have to find a better gotcha then. It will have to be a beauty to match the Lebanese snafu wont it?
https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/what-happened-to-a-regionally-superior-conventional-submarine/
Worth a read.
Barney,
This has definitely been my experience.
Humans have a range of different personality traits, and race or religion makes no difference to them.
I put Player One into the disillusioned pessimist basket ;D
The types are vaguely defined, as is usual with this type of analysis ie trying to use the data to find distinct groups.
As for climate change policies (they seem to be classified as vaguely wanting climate action, but not too much), I note that the party which has been done the most concrete action on this front in Australia has been led by a leader who is from the Labor left faction, or unaligned (is that correct?) ie Weatherill, Rann, Gillard.
Manufacturing/secure well-paid jobs, affordable housing, that sort of thing I agree might appeal to them. ie the social contract.
“Stupid people do it.”
That’s our Steamy then…consistently stupid. I think its replaced nath as the benchmark on that quality though the competition here is tough.
Snap, Lizzie!
Jess Wilson was president of the young Libs and is linked to the IPA.
The volume by the anti labor dicks on here seems to be going up, proof that Labor is going well.
hello, Douglas and Milko,
I have received your email address from Mr Bowe. I’ll be sending you an email soon. Let’s organise a Xmas Get Together!
It’s not so much the volume, it’s the hysteria.
This is quite a fulsome tribute to Comrade Xi. Among many other worthy achievements, Comrade Xi has read Das Kapital three times.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202111/1238282.shtml
imacca says:
That’s our Steamy then…consistently stupid. I think its replaced nath as the benchmark on that quality though the competition here is tough.
___________
I’d like to know who you rate as the resident mental giants on here. Now that would be amusing.
“Comrade Xi has read Das Kapital three times.”
I have seen Dune twice…who wins??
Poor Oakeshott Country , what a shame to miss such witty debate and commentary like today’s on PB.
imacca @ #1147 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 6:54 pm
You do but only if you have seen the ‘Dune’ with Sting in it. 😉
A bit more on the 7 political tribes which might interest people. Cosmopolitans and egalitarians together are 36% of voters nationally, but only 26% in Queensland! So why has Labor done so well at state level? Is it just that the issues and the leaders are different?
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/how-queensland-compares-politically-to-the-rest-of-australia-20170206-gu6r56.html
“I’d like to know who you rate as the resident mental giants on here.”
Generally people who are willing to discuss without rancor and can actually, mostly, move on from their little obsessions are the ones worth reading. I sometimes rate quite low on that but do try to be a better person from time to time. 🙂
imacca says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 6:54 pm
“Comrade Xi has read Das Kapital three times.”
I have seen Dune twice…who wins??
——————————–
Wait. There’s more. Comrade Xi filled 18 notebooks with commentary on Das Kapital. How many notebooks did you fill while watching Dune twice?
I assume Lars is being sarcastic, so why doesn’t he lead the way on the witty debate and commentary?
The bludger nadir arrives when you realize you should be scrolling past your own posts.
”
Steelydansays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 6:00 pm
Ven
Typical Labor you talk but you don’t do.
Did SSM happen under the Labor Government of Rudd Gillard Rudd. No
It happened under the Coalition.
I remember the ALP going on and on and on and on and on about much the plebiscite of which we should have more of was going to cause irreparable damage to gay people, suicides all sorts of things were going to happen. Did it, No. Australia wanted SSM they got it. During a Coalition Government, Labor talks Coalition does.
”
Steely
If you had put your argument that any major reform in this country cannot be sustained without Libs support, I would have fully agreed with you.
Let it be financial or social.
But that is not what you are doing. You are simply gloating.
That is the reason why I am sceptical about any good and necessary Climate change legislation becoming a reality in near future.
“You do but only if you have seen the ‘Dune’ with Sting in it. ”
HaH, having seen that twice as well, once at a drive in..(but i did miss a couple of bits…) i shall now not fear the sharp edge of the comrade’s erudition!! 🙂
nath
You are wrong about the amount of rubbish burnt and you are wrong about the way it substitutes for other emissions.
And you are petty, but we knew that.
(I don’t do ‘gotchas’, I try to do facts).
Mexican
Not another one!
The Libs are definitely the political arm of the IPA and they are slowly achieving their list of goals.
SHY and FBM!
Sounds like we can add Mr. Bainimarama to the list of world leaders pissed off with Morrison. Good on him!
SHY is doing such a great job of representing Australia!
“How many notebooks did you fill while watching Dune twice?”
Weeeeeeeellll………i have dribbled out a lot of sometimes bollocks and pedantic opinions on Dune when i’m pissed?? 🙂
A big loss for the Liberal Party, but a gain for conspiracy theorists promoting alien visitations..
zoomster says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 7:02 pm
nath
You are wrong about the amount of rubbish burnt and you are wrong about the way it substitutes for other emissions.
_________________
Bad luck zoomster. It’s not much of a gotcha. Do better next time.
“but a gain for conspiracy theorists promoting alien visitations..”
What is the go with those pinned out eyes?? With those expressions, way way way creepy………
nath
Your failure to understand something pretty basic isn’t my fault.
zoomster says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 7:09 pm
nath
Your failure to understand something pretty basic isn’t my fault.
__________
the fact is they do burn it all, that which can’t be generally recycled. And of course the supposed emissions trade off is not genuine, particularly when you factor in the dioxin and ash residue.
If you were so in love with incinerating rubbish, I assume you advanced this policy in Labor and Local Government? How did that go?
sprocket_ @ #1130 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 7:05 pm
Whoever it is behind him clearly isn’t a fan either!
Have been away today from PB, but can I remind Firefox & Friends of the following:
● Although you may not believe it, there is FAR more to occupy the minds of Australian voters than Gay Marriage. The Australian people can be divided into 15% who are all for it, 15% who are all against it, and 70% who vote “Yes” in the hope that the other two groups will finally STFU about both the issue itself and who it was that promoted it.
● One lump of coal, that could have been dug up with a pick and shovel, from a mine that has a theoretical capacity of millions of tonnes a year, is not a sign of anything in particular. Three years after fucking-up the 2019 election over bloody Adani, the Greens seem determined to fuck-up ANOTHER election, and get and absolutely fucking nothing done for ANOTHER three years.
Grow up Greens.
From his comments on yesterday’s Albo Photo discussion it is completely apparent that Firefox tend to like staged, posed performances that shout at the observer, rather than a more natural and nuanced message.
Lurker, I complained yesterday about people dredging up old crap. The person who least gets to do this here is you.
”
sprocket_says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 7:05 pm
A big loss for the Liberal Party, but a gain for conspiracy theorists promoting alien visitations..
”
Did Tim Smith put on some special type of contact lens for his eyes to look like that? 🙂
William Bowe says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 7:18 pm
Lurker, I complained yesterday about people dredging up old crap. The person who least gets to do this here is you.
______
You are kind of dredging up old crap too. Just saying.
Tim Smith’s large empty blue eyes remind me of those robotic children. Scary.
Some priceless footage from today’s anti-vax mandate protests. Signs declaring tyranny, clearly not understanding what actual tyranny is. Someone using the analogy of an umbrella keeping the rain off her as having something to do with vaccination. Someone with a sign ‘Vaxed not Vaxed’ – I don’t understand that one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8zgloTl9E0&ab_channel=10NewsFirst
”
Bushfire Billsays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 7:16 pm
Have been away today from PB, but can I remind Firefox & Friends of the following:
● Although you may not believe it, there is FAR more to occupy the minds of Australian voters than Gay Marriage. The Australian people can be divided into 15% who are all for it, 15% who are all against it, and 70% who vote “Yes” in the hope that the other two groups will finally STFU about both the issue itself and who promoted
”
Thumbs up emoji
Comparing election date options with some colleagues tonight. 3 possibilities, 1 outlier..
1. Call an election on Monday for December 11
2. Call it post Australia Day for early March
3. Bring forward the Budget to April 2, call election for mid May
4. The outlier. As per3, but half-Senate in May with the Reps election in September.
So what does the Waverley Wally think?
Being PM with all the lifetime perks and board seats can never be taken away from him.
The polls, both public and internal, are looking dire – and a early giveaway Budget circuit breaker could cloud the voters memory of the litany of debacles during the sQomo term.
Maybe the economy will pick post lockdown and Rupert has guaranteed wall to wall wallpaper? To late already for Dutton or the weasel Hunt to challenge.
Whose side are you on? The Australian Way. Technology, not Taxes.
Option 3 looking best, but don’t rule out the outlier as a final FU from Scott.
Did we not have a Private Company, part of the garbage collection industry which had contracted with China for China to accept product able to be recycled?
But that Private Company did not sort the garbage, sending whatever it received to China (being paid to receive the garbage and being paid by China for the garbage)
China then said we are not your garbage bin, a dumping ground for all your garbage – and tore up the Contact
Costing Council Rate payers in Australia
No doubt the tearing up of that Contract was the fault of China – not the Australian Private Company which reneged on the Terms and Conditions of the Contract
Sprocket
I understand the logic but six more months of curries? Unbearable.
Nobody’s smiling for the camera, so Firefox will probably be scratching his head as to why this is another great political photograph.
WB,
I don’t know why this is so relevant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JD9it6SmB8
Scotty cannot travel to WA until next year at least. And there are some vulnerable seats there that you’d expect the PM to visit. Ditto Qld until later in December.
That imo is one of the best political photos of the year.
Two mindless automatons.
Is there a poll this weekend?
Lizzie at 7:21 pm
In an earlier life he starred in the Village of the Damned.