This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Parramatta Moderate
I dunno about tribes, but QLD has more than its share of illiteracy and lower educational status individuals.
Parramatta Moderate at 6.58pm re Labor’s different rates of success at State and Federal levels…
I am a West wing addict. During the last season, the main story is the election campaign to elect Jed Bartlett’s successor. The Democratic candidate is Matt Santos and Josh Lyman is managing his campaign.
In one episode, Lyman has drawn up a whiteboard with two columns of issues: ‘Mommy’ and ‘Daddy’
‘Mommy’ includes health, education, welfare, transport
‘Daddy’ includes national security and economy.
Lyman explains that polls show people always believe Republicans are better at ‘Daddy’ issues and Democrats at ‘Mommy’ ones.
Perhaps Labor succeeds at State level because people believe it is better at service provision, a mainly state responsibility.
Ironically, people believe LNP superior on ‘Daddy’ issues, when they usually trash the economy (Howard left Hawke/Keating true stagflation; the LNP inherited the best OECD economy from Rudd/Gillard and is surprised wages are now stagnant etc etc).
Then there’s national security. I bet most people believe LNP created the US alliance (ALP’s Curtin did). Menzies would have sold us out to Churchill. Howard sold us out to Dubbya etc etc.
So, LNP have an excellent propaganda track record.
Fancy SHY toadying up to the Fijian dictator like that for a photo opportunity!
The Greens should be well ashamed.
Meanwhile…
Australia is up to 66.56% fully vaccinated (as a percentage of population)
New Zealand is 67.14% fully vaccinated (as a percentage of population)
In terms of at least one dose, NZ leads AU 77.04 to 74.69
We need to land in the high 80s, of total population. 66% is creditable, but nowhere near good enough. Even in NSW the fully vaccinated figure is 75.6% and at least one dose is 79.4%. Again, high 80s is where we need to be.
Given the area it’s not surprising that this is an issue, but it’s hardly surprising that the featured Steiner school is at the extreme of the issue.
Surely focusing on the local public schools would give a better picture of any real concerns.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-07/mullumbimby-steiner-shearwater-teachers-unvaccinated/100600130
Having the teaching staff vaccinated is good, but having unvaccinated kids passing the virus around and then taking it home. .that’s the bit that we should be paying attention to.
The Damned did come to mind, poroti. Good on you for sourcing the perfect image.
I have pure black eyes that scare dogs and little children. But white eyes are just as awful, at the other end of the spectrum.
Fulvio Sammut @ #1153 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 4:44 pm
It is a strange union.
I’ve currently picked up the workload of a colleague who has failed to get vaccinated.
It’s been awful, because I genuinely love her – I went into the staffroom on Friday to see her desk empty and felt such loss…and then I put my books down on it.
I trust she’s finished the marking ….
zoomster @ #1159 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 4:55 pm
I’m not aware of any antivax sentiments here.
Everyone at my school was given the opportunity to get vaccinated and only one didn’t because of legitimate medical grounds.
zoomster
May we inquire why?
Zoomster
Will it be permanent or has she just missed out temporarily?
Perhaps he could transition to making mud pies each weekend.
C@t
Great! Looking forward to it.
David Rowe liking the cut of Brandon’s jib…
citizen @ #1164 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 5:02 pm
He has got Rowe’s Shit Sandwich and Humble Pie to fall back on.
I get to do some of her marking, alas – this week is going to be fairly intense, as I have my own reports to write.
She’s a very sweet lady but as soon as the subject turns to vaccinations she starts ranting about ‘poison in my veins’ and Nazi Germany….so the conversation has been largely avoided.
Do we get any polling this evening?
Steelydan:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 5:30 pm
[‘My fathers side of the family is in Canada and Australia’s name or Morrison’s has not been mentioned.’]
So that’s evidence in support of your thesis that Canadians aren’t describing Morrison as a lying low life, who can’t keep a confidence, that no international leader will trust again. I wonder what they’re saying in Quebec?
_________________________________________
venn:
Thanks for the additional info on Indian immigrants.
Imacca
Thanks for the link, it is a well reasoned article. From my reading and talking to people I think the case for going nuclear has been understated in the article; it is real. But why we knocked the French out as possible suppliers of nuclear boats is not clear, and smacks of bias. That would have been the quickest, least risk option.
https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/what-happened-to-a-regionally-superior-conventional-submarine/
I linked another article earlier today at ASPI which highlights inconsistencies in Defense officials statements on the Attack Class and the timeline. It looked likely that either Defense officials lied to Senate Estimates in March this year, or Morrison lied last week, or both.
pity Morrison didn’t use his cooking charm/albeit manners on world leaders – it is somewhat ironic and belittling to see him crawling to ordinary folk and earning scorn internationally … go away scottee
Interesting
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/michael-sukkar-knew-of-scheme-that-misused-public-funds-to-boost-faction-20211104-p5960i.html?btis
[‘Vaccine rollout:
NSW
89.8% fully vaccinated; 93.9% first dose
National
80.5% fully vaccinated; 89.3% first dose
Of the estimated population aged 16 and over.’]
These stats are quite impressive, though Queensland and WA are still dragging their feet. And with everyone 18 & over now eligible for a booster, you’d be a doom & gloom merchant, or perhaps with an agenda, not to concede that things will return to normal soon. If, as I think, the election won’t be held until at least March, I doubt Morrison’s negligence will be a substantial issue.
Something happening now to get nath all hot and bothered. 60 minutes in collaboration with the Age have somehow got a truckload of Michael Sukkar’s emails….
‘Federal minister Michael Sukkar had intimate knowledge of a long-running scheme in which his best friend, younger brother and factional supporters were paid by taxpayers for political work that boosted the power of Mr Sukkar’s faction.
Mr Sukkar’s leaked personal correspondence, along with the testimony of two confidential sources, casts fresh light on his knowledge of the scheme, first revealed by The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald and 60 Minutes last year.
The documents undermine the Assistant Treasurer’s statements at the time that he knew nothing about the rorting of taxpayer funds in his office, and that of veteran Victorian MP Kevin Andrews. He blamed the improper actions on a relatively junior political staffer, Josh Bonney.
In one email sent to Mr Sukkar, a taxpayer-funded electorate office worker was described as spending “5 days [a week] – databasing of new members … facilitating factional operations” among other activities.’
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/michael-sukkar-knew-of-scheme-that-misused-public-funds-to-boost-faction-20211104-p5960i.html
Confessions you missed an important piece of punctuation in that sign on the news.
It said “Vaxed, not vaxed”.
Yeah nah. Still doesn’t make any sense.
Mavis says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 8:34 pm
________________________
I agree with your comments Mavis.
Add:
18% or there abouts who are unsure about Albo in the polling.
Those canny Liberals….
‘Between mid-2017 and mid-2018, at least five other factional operatives were given taxpayer-funded jobs in either Mr Andrews’ office or that of Mr Sukkar. They included Jessy Jayakumaran, Nigel Lau and Stephanie Bastiaan. All five were directed to engage in at least some factional work, according to documents and source testimony.
For instance, a text message that circulated among the Sukkar faction in January 2018 states that one of Mr Andrews’ electorate officers had been directed to work on the election of a conservative figure in the 2018 Young Liberals election.
“I’ve got [Andrews’ electorate officer] to work on [Young Liberals election] email drafts tomorrow in Kevin’s office,” the message said.
“Awesome … let’s get you elected,” another factional figure replied.
“…I doubt Morrison’s negligence will be a substantial issue.”
Just look at what he’s managed in the past week or so, let alone since the last election. Do you really think he can get through the next three months without a half a dozen major stuff-ups? Even with the press holding him up against the ropes, he’s staggering all over the place.
As a personal aside, I play in a golf group that includes five who owned up to voting for him last time around. All five have dumped him. For what it’s worth, one is in Cook, one in Banks with the rest in Kingsford-Smith, where it doesn’t really matter. The main issue was franking credits with one simply voting against Shorten. These issues are gone and they are really taking notice of his behaviour.
Federal minister Michael Sukkar had intimate knowledge of a long-running scheme in which his best friend, younger brother and factional supporters were paid by taxpayers for political work that boosted the power of Mr Sukkar’s faction. https://t.co/8RcRCGSr8U
And what does Michael Sukkar think of fellow Victorian Liberal Senator Jane Hume?
Leaked communications also reveal how Mr Sukkar privately criticised Senator Hume in May 2018 after she made an emotional statement about the difficulty of juggling politics and motherhood.
“While I am a willing volunteer to this life on the front line, my kids are conscripts,” Ms Hume wrote in a Facebook post. “There is no such thing as superwoman. We can’t do it all. Something’s got to give.”
Mr Sukkar shared the post with his factional allies in a closed chat room, describing it as “indulgent and quite frankly bizarre”.
“I was waiting for her retirement from politics but sadly it wasn’t there!” Mr Sukkar told his factional allies, who responded “ha ha” and that Ms Hume was “mad and unhinged”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/michael-sukkar-knew-of-scheme-that-misused-public-funds-to-boost-faction-20211104-p5960i.html
What’s Jim Chalmers been up to?
Hey Lars. Any thoughts on Michael Sukkar?
Bit embarrassing for your lot..
Lars Von Trier @ #1182 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 8:48 pm
Nothing.
Trying to find the ‘passion’.
Is there a newspoll tonight if so I bet our great LNP will be back in the lead by 53/47
Chalmers is probably downloading Sukkar’s emails for 60 Minutes.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 8:48 pm
What’s Jim Chalmers been up to?
________
Probably reading economics textbooks. Meanwhile Andrew Leigh can’t get into the Shadow Ministry because he is not factionally aligned. Although as Parl Sec Shad Assist Minister for Treasury he is probably the one who is actually doing some policy formulation. You’d think so at least.
Wayne! You’re back! How lovely!
Lurker @ #1187 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 5:54 pm
You seem more worried by this than Leigh.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 8:40 pm
Mavis says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 8:34 pm
________________________
[‘I agree with your comments Mavis.
Add:
18% or there abouts who are unsure about Albo in the polling.’]
Thanks. As the LOTO, Albanese gets nowhere near the media coverage
Morrison enjoys (“enjoys” is probably the wrong word given his disastrous showing in Glasgow, his lack of diplomatic nous re. the boats). Come the election, though, things will change dramatically. And this is when the 18% will start to consider who’s most suited to lead this country – a lying carny-spruiker or a safe pair of hands.
Jim issued the following press releases:
0 in July
3 in August
6 in September
3 In October.
Maybe its quantity not quality?
Mavis
There are only a very few places in the world where the virus hasn’t “gone through the roof” after implementation of vaccination and then easing of restrictions. Those places generally have real (percentage of population) vaccination rates in the 80s. We may get there, but there will always be areas of weakness – some suburbs, some towns and of course the 20 somethings.
I think rhwombat was correct in saying that covid will again accelerate post Xmas and that gives it plenty of time to go back into the thousands of cases before an election is called.
I’d like this not to happen. However, the reality is we are dealing with a virus that has a baseline reproductive number of around 5. Vaccination alone cannot reduce that number to 1. They’re just not that good, however much wishful thinking you apply.
In December we let loose the unvaccinated 20 and 30 somethings into social venues. We foolishly relax mask rules. We introduce more virus from overseas. And all the while, the average efficacy of the vaccines creeps down with time. Don’t be so foolish as to think that we can go back to “normal”. To keep R under 1 means doing more than vaccination. It means mask wearing in some places. It means more (rapid) testing. It means potentially reinstating restrictions on the unvaccinated. And more.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 8:55 pm
You seem more worried by this than Leigh.
_____________
I doubt it! Given Leigh’s credentials I’m pretty certain he’s alternating between laughing and crying.
Lurker @ #1193 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 5:57 pm
You’re projecting your own personal characteristics onto others again.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 9:00 pm
You’re projecting your own personal characteristics onto others again.
________________
My views are my own. Of course, If Albo wins and appoints Leigh to Treasury and Chalmers to something else you will nod sagely and think it’s spot on.
Although Gentle Jim seems a workhorse compared to Turtle Bowen – One press release on 15 October and one on 23 June.
Lurker @ #1195 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 6:03 pm
Both would be worthy choices, but that wasn’t your original point.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 9:07 pm
Both would be worthy choices, but that wasn’t your original point.
____________
You’d think any appointment would be worthy. That’s what happens when you outsource your opinions to a political party.
Lurker says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 8:57 pm
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 8:55 pm
You seem more worried by this than Leigh.
_____________
I doubt it! Given Leigh’s credentials I’m pretty certain he’s alternating between laughing and crying.
_______________________________________
21 press releases since Sept 2 :- incredible work ethic compared to Gentle Jim and Turtle Bowen.
Lars, speaking of Treasury spokespeople – how do you think Josh’s 2 Assistant Treasurers will go tomorrow?
Michael Sukkar: Hi Jane, are you still indulgent and frankly bizzare today?
Jane Hume: That’s very Christian of you, Michael…
Sukkar: my Christian factional mates say you’re ‘mad and unhinged’..
Hume: I’m calling Scott, he will sort this out for me
Sukkar: Laughs
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/michael-sukkar-knew-of-scheme-that-misused-public-funds-to-boost-faction-20211104-p5960i.html