This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Roy Orbison:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 8:43 pm
No argument with you whatsoever. My point is that the electorate has short memories. If all’s back to normal come early next year, C.19 won’t be the issue some think/hope it will be. Fortunately for Labor, there’s a glut of other issues that should sink HMAS Morrison & his crew of mainly corrupt deadbeats. And the one issue that stands out from my perspective is the establishment of an integrity commission with the powers of the NSW ICAC – anything less will not suffice.
sprocket_ @ #1127 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 7:05 pm
A Midwich cuckoo?
Lars or nath, would you like to fill us in on what this is all about? Liberal staffers running a conservative blog to attract people to branch stack for Sukkar?
‘Another email sent to Michael Sukkar on February 27, 2018, by one of his factional operatives suggests Ms Jayakumaran and other employees of Mr (Kevin) Andrews’ electorate office may have been in breach of laws that prevent electorate officers being paid to recruit members for a political faction.
The email stated Ms Jayakumaran was spending “5 days [a week] – databasing of new members … facilitating factional operations … turning out numbers [party members] and facilitating proxies for state council”. It also referred to another electorate officer “recruiting” factionally aligned members, as well as running a conservative political blog.
Mr Sukkar responded to this February 27 email by writing: “Good Summary. My only comment is that [one of the electorate officers in Mr Andrews’ office] is very valuable to our broader movement through [a conservative blog], so let’s not dissuade her from the good work she’s doing through that medium.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/michael-sukkar-knew-of-scheme-that-misused-public-funds-to-boost-faction-20211104-p5960i.html
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 9:10 pm
Lurker says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 8:57 pm
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 8:55 pm
You seem more worried by this than Leigh.
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I doubt it! Given Leigh’s credentials I’m pretty certain he’s alternating between laughing and crying.
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21 press releases since Sept 2 :- incredible work ethic compared to Gentle Jim and Turtle Bowen.
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I hope they wake up to themselves at some point and give Leigh Treasury. Chalmers would be better suited to Defence, apart from the inconvenient fact of his leadership aspirations.
Lars Von Trier at 9:05 pm
After the last election it’s probably best Bowen says nowt.
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 9:16 pm
Lars or nath, would you like to fill us in on what this is all about? Liberal staffers running a conservative blog to attract people to branch stack for Sukkar?
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Sounds very much like the same fraud that we have seen unfolding at IBAC.
Lurker @ #1198 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 6:09 pm
Why would either be unworthy?
They are both highly credentialed and capable people.
As for your last point. 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆
Mavis
“Morrison as a lying low life, who can’t keep a confidence, that no international leader will trust again.”
Why does ALP supporters so hyperbolic I mean it seems always the case the over the top exaggeration does not stop. The you repeat it on and on and on as some how it will become truth.
Not even Macron believes what you have stated. Just hyperbole bordering on a lie.
The Midwich Cuckoos
(John Wyndham)
Steelydan @ #1206 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 9:25 pm
Why does ALP supporters?
Why DO ALP supporters…..
Steelydan @ #1208 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 6:25 pm
I think that is pretty much what Macron was saying about Morrison.
Sorry, well off the pace; should have checked through.
I just watched this speech from Albanese and granted it is a couple of years old but this bloke has a lot to change to become PM. He has lost the weight but still so much left to do.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1052756889707065344
He cant do anything about his lisp or talking through his nose but the arms thing will have to go and no comb over ever works.
The ALP is well is front but Morrison can beat this guy.
Socrates @ #1171 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 8:18 pm
Interesting article.
I’d be interested to hear Andrew_Earlwood’s take on the stealthiness of nuclear vs conventional boats as he appears to have more current information as to capabilities of both.
I have mentioned before that nuclear subs are easily detectable when at speed due to the turbulence.
Also they run steam turbines – in my day they were detectable from many many kilometres away just from the turbines – even when they were running at very low speed.
My reading is that nuclear subs are only useful as missile platforms – not stealth weapons.
We don’t need missile platforms so that begs the question as to why we have chosen nuclear over conventional subs. That to me is more interesting on a political blog – what is really going on here?
What are we missing?
Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 9:29 pm
Steelydan @ #1208 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 6:25 pm
Mavis
“Morrison as a lying low life, who can’t keep a confidence, that no international leader will trust again.”
Why does ALP supporters so hyperbolic I mean it seems always the case the over the top exaggeration does not stop. The you repeat it on and on and on as some how it will become truth.
Not even Macron believes what you have stated. Just hyperbole bordering on a lie.
I think that is pretty much what Macron was saying about Morrison.
Case in point. Macron said when asked do you think the Australian PM lied to you. Macron said I don’t think I know” Nothing else was said. So in this case not hyperbole just a lie.
Cud Chewer:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 8:57 pm
I understand all that and I concede there “is” the potential for things to go pear-shaped. That said, there have been a number of advances in treating C.19, such Ronapreve,* which appears very effective, and no doubt more drugs will become available. Further, relative to most other first-world countries our death rate per capita compares well, standing at 1815. Moreover, from a clinical perspective, we seem to be doing a lot better. All up, I think we can view the future with a good deal of confidence than even three months ago.
https://www.tga.gov.au/covid-19-treatment-roche-products-pty-ltd-casirivimab-imdevimab-ronapreve
https://covidlive.com.au/report/deaths
“He cant do anything about his lisp or talking through his nose but the arms thing will have to go and no comb over ever works. ”
Incisive political commentary from TinPot. It’s a shame no one told John Howard this same advice in 1996.
Steelydan @ #1215 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 6:41 pm
Maybe you should find the full footage. There was a lengthy preamble in which he made it completely clear that his view of Morrison was of Morrison as a person and bared no reflection on his opinions of Australia or Australians.
Mavis its important to understand cudchewer has been personally invested in a grim world view :
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Cud Chewer says:
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 7:39 pm
“its going to be a great spring in Sydney”
Yeah, apart from tens to hundreds of thousands of covid cases…
Lars the Liberal apologist as usual not connected to reality.
Steelydan:
I have a degree in speech pathology, and an interest in speech sound disorders, and call this as bullshit. Albo does not have a lisp.
I don’t work in the area of voice, but at most, I would say Albo has some mild pharyngeal constriction and mild harshness to the quality of his voice. I wouldn’t consider it to be at a clinically significant level, unless he was unhappy with the sound of his voice and wanted to change it.
He does not “talk through his nose”. If anything, he’s talking slightly too much from his throat.
I love Albo’s lisp. I love Albo. 🙂
Lurker says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 9:51 pm
I love Albo’s lisp. I love Albo.
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I love Tony Burke’s lisp too!
Re Parramatta Moderate at 1.33 pm and the so-called 7 tribes in Australian politics
Thanks for your summary of that, which is interesting, but I query the methodology of relying upon a one-off Fairfax survey in 2017 of 2,600 respondents, done with the Dutch voting advice company Kieskompas, as the basis for an intelligent understanding of Australian social beliefs.
An ANU behavioural political scientist, Jill Shepherd, questioned the reliability of the sampling method used by Kieskompas in a 2018 report on the use of voter advice application data, which is available at:
http://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/2018/9/CSRM_MP3_2018_MEASURING_SOCIAL_ATTITUDES.pdf (see p 6 and conclusion p 17).
The precise percentages used in the Fairfax survey are dubious because of the nature of the survey, apart from any inherent sampling problems. Surveys are relatively reliable when the questions are very simple and direct, such as who will you vote for out of these options, but much less so when the questions are more complicated, like those involving social attitudes.
People should not take those survey figures as reliable even for that one point in time survey, let alone as fixed over a time period of years. As Don Rumsfeld said in the press conference that spawned the journalistic nonsense about New vs Old Europe in January 2003, the point about opinion polls is that you should expect them to move, and indeed try to move them your way. Rumsfeld called France and Germany ‘Old Europe’ in a fit of exasperation, whereas in reality Germany was always at the centre of the real new Europe, even before Merkel came to power.
A critical, sceptical response to the Fairfax survey at the time from Helen Razer is at:
https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/02/07/razer-fairfax-political-persona-project-quiz-is-centrist-garbage/
She called it “centrist garbage in and out”. While she did not elaborate on the methodological weaknesses of that survey, understanding them reinforces her point.
Lol Lars. I am being serious. I have a soft spot for Albo. I wan’t him to succeed I really do. I haven’t felt this way since Keating.
Pfizer’s new oral antiviral is worth watching.
Wayne @ #1219 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 8:51 pm
You were wrong last time, I can’t see how that’s going to change, but keep on providing light relief, Wayne.
Christ even Wayne’s shown up.
Steelydan:
You come here expecting to be taken seriously where your evidence that Morrison’s not seen a lying douchebag is based on your father’s side of your family who hasn’t heard a bad word about him – sacré bleu.
Redbridge Group poll of Kew in the Herald Sun:
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/liberal-mp-tim-smith-to-quit-state-politics-after-terrible-drink-driving-error/news-story/851d63a012b5f604c2c8a453ccc6d1ed
Lars your never ending nasty haranguing of left of centre bludgers on here makes the blog from my perspective almost unreadable. Are there righty sites that you can go to rather than being an annoying pest on this otherwise fantastic blog?
The Liberals must be worried. It looks like Steelydan and Lars von Liberal have been working overtime to disparage Labor and Albanese. 🙂
Lurker nath being their ever-reliable attack poodle. 😀
Not Midwich Cuckoo. Just cuckoo.
Mr. Newbiesays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 9:47 pm
Steelydan:
He cant do anything about his lisp or talking through his nose
I have a degree in speech pathology, and an interest in speech sound disorders, and call this as bullshit. Albo does not have a lisp.
I don’t work in the area of voice, but at most, I would say Albo has some mild pharyngeal constriction and mild harshness to the quality of his voice. I wouldn’t consider it to be at a clinically significant level, unless he was unhappy with the sound of his voice and wanted to change it.
He does not “talk through is nose”. If anything, he’s talking slightly too much from his throat.
Fair enough so there is nothing he can do and my point to his speech was from a voters perspective.
But while you are here what is the problem with his S’s if it is a throat issue.
I’ve lived near Kew, in and around for much of my life. It has a very distinct history from other Eastern suburbs on that side of the river. In the late nineteenth century and for decades after it was where up and coming Catholics moved to after ‘making it’ in Collingwood and Richmond on the other side of the river. No doubt why it always had a few pubs, unlike the Protestant areas nearby. I love the suburb. One of the great places to live. Lovely parks, close to the city on the tram. It was a shame they pulled up the old Kew rail line. 🙁
Hopefully Sukkar and his mates will have their own appointment with IBAC very soon. If we’re lucky this will turbocharge the push for a federal anti corruption body with real teeth. In addition hopefully all of the dodgy politicians allegedly rorting public funds, whether Somyurek, Kairouz, Byrne on the ALP side, or Sukkar, Bastiaan et al on the Liberal side, will face criminal consequences for misappropriation of public property if that is established – given that it is, in substance, theft.
Mavissays:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 9:58 pm
Steelydan:
You come here expecting to be taken seriously where your evidence that Morrison’s not seen a lying douchebag is based on your father’s side of your family who hasn’t heard a bad word about him – sacré bleu.
I was making two points
One. I doubt any country in the world had much to say about Morrison’s trip to Glasgow.
Two. Canada’s per capita CO2 emissions are worse than Australia. Which is significant considering how people on here bang on.
But please show me any headlines in other countries about Morrison’s trip to Glasgow. It was hardly in the French Newspapers.
Lurker says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 10:06 pm
I’ve lived near Kew, in and around for much of my life. It has a very distinct history from other Eastern suburbs on that side of the river.
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Kew, like most of the east of Melbourne, always feels like foreign territory to me. Pleasant enough, but growing up by the Bay in the south, the leafy eastern suburbs always had a very different vibe.
Re Mavis at 9.42 pm and the Covid per capita death rate in Australia
Currently, as of 7 Nov, the absolute Covid death number in Australia is 1,815. The per capita death rate nationally is 70 per 1 million inhabitants (though slightly higher in NSW and much higher in Victoria mainly due to the deaths in 2020 in federally-regulated nursing homes).
The most significant mover in per capita death rates in the past two months is Singapore, which has a modern and effective health system. In the past week the per capita death rate exceeded Australia’s. It was 81 on 6 Nov. Only a few months ago that figure in Singapore was close to the current New Zealand figure, which is still 6, though likely to rise significantly soon.
There is a warning in the Singapore figures that other countries will ignore at their peril. The two countries in East Asia that have been doing better in the last couple of months are South Korea and Japan. When the per capita death rate in South Korea was around 50 per million nearly two months ago, it was similar to Australia’s. Now South Korea’s figure is 58.
A key aspect of South Korea’s Covid response has been mandatory quarantine of infected people away from their usual households and communities while infectious. See:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-10/south-korea-mandatory-quarantine-for-the-covid-positive/100514744
Japan still has a per capita death rate from Covid twice that of Australia, at 145, but it has been increasing at a much slower rate than Australia’s in the past two months.
max says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 10:07 pm
Hopefully Sukkar and his mates will have their own appointment with IBAC very soon.
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IBAC only deals with state politicians max.
max says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 10:12 pm
Lurker says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 10:06 pm
I’ve lived near Kew, in and around for much of my life. It has a very distinct history from other Eastern suburbs on that side of the river.
————
Kew, like most of the east of Melbourne, always feels like foreign territory to me. Pleasant enough, but growing up by the Bay in the south, the leafy eastern suburbs always had a very different vibe.
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Just think Brighton, but with more class. 🙂 or just with class….
Firefox says:
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 12:17 pm
“Green voters are Labor-positive, on the whole.”
***
Holy shit! Where has The Artist gone?? What have you done with our Briefly?!?!
Green-leaning voters are not at all the same as the Greens-the-Party. The Party Pros utterly fucking despise Labor, whom they condescend to frown upon from a great height.
Pretty frothy t0day. The usual suspects attempting to create plenty of turbulence. I wonder why 😉
On Channel 9: ‘Sukkar’s rotten quest for political power’.
Pretty much sums it up.
Steelydan:
I’ve never noticed a problem with Albo’s S’s. My impression is that Albo sounds the way he does because of his facial bone structure/anatomy.
Dishy McFlatface beta testing. Still finessing the placement and setup, and monitoring for dropouts. But the numbers are impressive.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-G72Ol29edhM/YYe19oTK0eI/AAAAAAAAG90/MrkiJtMHsikEfF91L1iA-IN_MsDQijSNQCLcBGAsYHQ/s2048/fullsizeoutput_37fe.jpeg
As for COVID-19, run and play little ones. We have a temporary reprieve. We choose to suppress, not eliminate. And we still haven’t fully factored in airborne transmission precautions. We are even reducing mask use.
Dr Doolittle,
Do you have any data relative to Taiwan’s current COVID-19 fortunes? Do they not have an Epidemiologist as their national leader?
Dr Doolittle @ Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 9:53 pm
I would need to see the methodology for how they have clustered responses to have a better take. Personally, I wouldn’t be using classical factor analysis here as we are trying to cluster respondents. I would suggest a Q sort or Q method to identify initial response clusters.
Steelydan @ #1213 Sunday, November 7th, 2021 – 9:37 pm
You have heard of a bloke called, Johnny Howard, have you?
Got any watch freaks out there? 🙂
https://youtu.be/uDUCDaQ51DA