This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Morning all.
Steely Dan
“Covid is now about learning to live with it”
My take on that remark from our resident Liberal apparatchik (or is it consigliere?) is that the Liberal Party now sees covid as about messaging Australians to accept opening the country up, and consequent covid deaths, all as part of helping out donors whose business model relies on continual industrial scale air travel.
It certainly isn’t for the good of the economy as a whole. Normally international air travel is a net economic loss for Australia, as more of us leave than others visit. But those donors must be kep happy. Who cares if that requires a few thousand deaths?
Australia’s emissions from land clearing likely far higher than claimed, analysis indicates
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/08/australias-emissions-from-land-clearing-likely-far-higher-than-claimed-analysis-indicates
Imagine the hue and cry if a Labor federal Minister was found to have behaved the way Michael Sukkar and likely Kevin Andrews, as his willing dupe, did? You just have to look at the way the Liberals carried on like stuck pigs about Adem Somyurek.
I bet they’re vewy, vewy quiet in the Victorian Liberal Party today about Michael. Have they even let out a peep?
This story is about to pull the last rug out from under Morrison and his lies that we are meeting Paris emission reduction targets via changes in land use.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/08/australias-emissions-from-land-clearing-likely-far-higher-than-claimed-analysis-indicates
Reduced emissions from less land clearing was always a one-off trick. I have wondered why our claimed reduction from that source was so high for some time. The figures from the Federal Australia’s National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) looks suspiciously wrong in this study. With the Federal government winding up the Greenhouse office in 2013 and gutting large swathes of the CSIRO under new management, the number of people remaining in the Federal bureaucracy who might object to the figures is probably few.
So even the reductions we have “achieved” are smirk and mirrors.
Steelydan should change his nom to ‘Junior Woodchuck in a Liberal Think Tank’. He can’t spell well enough to be allowed near the PMO. 😉
Confessions says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 6:36 am
The corruption and rorting of taxpayer funds continues, but of course Sukkar was going to want to keep the details out of the public. How can the wants of the person accused of improper, unethical or illegal behaviour be the determining factor in whether something comes to public light or not?
————————————
It can, unfortunately, because corruption runs deep and wide and those who practise it are able to conceal itself by controlling the office holders who’d otherwise report it. Sukkar and his mates were either or both amazingly stupid or arrogant in leaving the paper trail that exposed it. Perhaps it points to how confident they were that their power would keep a lid on it.
Hopefully this will add to the political pressure for a federal body. Ideally it will also lead to a more honest mindset among the public generally : condemning corruption when it’s the other side but minimising it when it’s your own side is the basic partisan mindset that allows for corruption in the first place.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Emails and messages suggest that taxpayer funds were allegedly misused for Liberal Party purposes, highlighting again the need for a federal anti-corruption commission, write Nick McKenzie and Joel Tozer. They tell us about the branch stacking exploits of Michael Sukkar. Over to you, Scomo.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/michael-sukkar-knew-of-scheme-that-misused-public-funds-to-boost-faction-20211104-p5960i.html
They tell us that Sukkar argued strongly that a Finance Department report into allegations he was involved in rorting public resources for political purposes be kept secret. They say that, had the department’s full inquiry report been released, multiple sources say, it would have revealed that investigators failed to interview or contact key witnesses. Kevin Andrews appears to be in this up to his eyeballs, too.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/sukkar-argued-for-probe-report-to-stay-secret-20211105-p596fz.html
And McKenzie argues that there is no greater example of the two-tiered integrity system in Australia than the case of federal Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar. He says Mr Morrison has made the calculation that voters don’t care enough about integrity to make it an election issue. But it’s difficult to see how voters could believe their federal representatives deserve less scrutiny than their state counterparts, or preferring darkness over the political disinfectant of sunlight.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/proper-corruption-watchdog-needed-to-scrutinise-sukkar-s-scheme-20211105-p5969x.html
Sean Kelly writes that there was a sense, last week, of another Morrison showing through: an overly proud man too concerned with appearances to be capable of delivering what is really needed. He says that, in the next weeks, Labor will have its greatest opportunity this term, as it comes up with its own climate policy – and it needs to offer something significant.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-s-test-to-offer-reason-in-the-age-of-shouty-politics-20211107-p596r0.html
Australia could be one of a small number of countries called upon to improve their 2030 emission reduction targets next year according to a summary of negotiating points released by the presidency of the United Nations climate talks in Glasgow, explains Nick O’Malley.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/glasgow-ratchet-mechanism-could-put-more-pressure-on-australia-20211108-p596sx.html
Alan Kohler says that politicians must stop lying about the cost of climate change.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/11/08/climate-change-lies-alan-kohler/
Australia is likely to be releasing more emissions from deforestation than reported to the United Nations, new analysis indicates, stoking calls for an independent review of the sector that has delivered the bulk of the country’s claimed reductions in greenhouse gas pollution in recent decades.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/08/australias-emissions-from-land-clearing-likely-far-higher-than-claimed-analysis-indicates
Australia risks losing jobs to other countries if it fails to lift its below-average spending on research and development, a peak science body has warned, amid Scott Morrison’s vow to promote “technology not taxes” on climate policy.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/08/jobs-at-risk-without-boost-in-research-investment-peak-body-warns-after-scott-morrison-praises-scientists
Jess Wilson, a former adviser to federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, is emerging as the favourite to replace Liberal MP Tim Smith in the blue-ribbon seat of Kew. Another example of political inbreeding?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/ex-frydenberg-staffer-shapes-as-front-runner-to-take-smith-s-kew-seat-20211107-p596p2.html
It is a matter of despair that Australian politics has become all about faux larrikinism, leaving much of the population marginalised by bad policy, laments former diplomat, Francesca Beddie.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-larrikin-a-symbol-of-our-fractured-political-landscape/
Barnaby Joyce has dipped into a water infrastructure fund to grant $5 million to a company well-connected with Tasmania’s Liberal Party elite so they can build a 7km pipeline under Hobart’s Derwent River to water a newly planned, privately owned golf course, reports Callum Foote.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/using-water-wisely-barnaby-or-another-dicey-deal-in-the-pipeline/
When the curtains rise at a powerful parliamentary inquiry into a $40 billion NSW rail entity set up to artificially inflate the NSW budget, the big four consulting firms will be hauled into the spotlight, explains Adele Ferguson.
https://www.afr.com/politics/inquiry-to-scrutinise-consultants-in-40b-vehicle-for-deception-20211107-p596pi
“Interest rates definitely to rise – sometime, maybe”, says Ross Gittins.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/interest-rates-definitely-to-rise-sometime-maybe-20211106-p596je.html
According to Katina Curtis, The NSW government is taking the lead in a new collaboration with the ACT and South Australian governments to solve the practical and economic challenges of how Australia can reach net zero emissions.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/state-governments-join-forces-on-realities-of-net-zero-targets-20211107-p596qv.html
The Defence Department has doubled its spending on public servant redundancies, while its bill from contractors soars towards $2 billion, reveals Doug Dingwall. We may have reached the point where we have outsourced so much that you don’t any longer have that core expertise in-house that we need to essentially run projects responsibly and accountably,
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7498503/defence-redundancy-bill-doubles-as-staff-head-for-exit-door/?cs=14329
“How can Scott Morrison just decide and announce – with no mandate or national debate whatsoever – that Australia is going to embrace nuclear technology?”, asks Jon Faine.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-very-awkward-nuclear-embrace-20211105-p5969l.html
“Has Scott Morrison and the AUKUS deal left Australia more secure today than it was last month?”, ponders Nicholas Stuart in a very interesting contribution.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7500399/has-scott-morrison-left-australia-more-secure-today-than-it-was-last-month/?cs=14264
Scott Morrison is hiding behind future technologies, when we should just deploy what already exists, argues Simon Holmes à Court.
https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-is-hiding-behind-future-technologies-when-we-should-just-deploy-what-already-exists-169016
Laura Chung reports that hydrogen power could be a clean replacement for the carbon-intensive diesel fuel powering transport fleets, and Australia is looking to cash in on the world’s green technology push with a $12.5 million investment from the CEFC to develop zero emission trucks.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/green-hydrogen-trucks-to-help-cut-down-on-emissions-in-transport-sector-20211105-p596ds.html
Tom Rabe explains how cutting-edge quantum computing will one day run Sydney’s vast transport network under a world-first plan to use the technology that experts say can solve complex problems in seconds, rather than centuries.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/quantum-computers-to-run-sydney-s-transport-network-20211107-p596r5.html
Vaccinating children is the final frontier in Australia’s COVID battle, argue Steven Hamilton and Richard Holden.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/vaccinating-children-is-the-final-frontier-in-australia-s-covid-battle-20211107-p596qc.html
Tourism operators say they are turning away visitors who have been vaccinated overseas because there’s no easy way to prove their immunisation history.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/businesses-knock-back-australians-vaccinated-overseas-20211105-p596bn.html
All states have now released their road map out of the pandemic and some issues stand out. The most obvious is how out of kilter Western Australia is with the rest of the country, says the editorial in the SMH.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/wa-lags-in-facing-the-reality-of-our-future-living-with-covid-19-20211107-p596qz.html
Just 1.7% of people in PNG are vaccinated against COVID. Fraser Macdonald tells us why resistance is so fierce.
https://theconversation.com/just-1-7-of-people-in-png-are-vaccinated-against-covid-why-is-resistance-so-fierce-170876
New figures suggest Australia is wobbling its way into an epidemic of liver disease – with nearly half of regional people over the age of 60 affected. The epidemic has been spreading quietly for at least 30 years – and yet the full scale of the problem isn’t fully known. Booze isn’t the main driver. Nor is viral hepatitis, which is mercifully on the decline. Instead, “metabolic factors” – notably obesity and diabetes – are to blame, explains John Elder.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2021/11/07/eating-ourselves-to-death/
The National Broadband Network is trying to secure up to a billion dollars in extra funding from the federal government in a bid to improve its fixed wireless services ahead of the next federal election, reports Zoe Samios.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nbn-co-prepares-pitch-for-more-government-funding-20211104-p5960d.html
Rachel Clun writes that the corporate regulator should investigate how life insurers treat people with mental health conditions as more Australians seek treatment for mild issues that advocates say should not affect their cover.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/calls-for-asic-to-investigate-mental-health-discrimination-in-life-insurance-20211104-p595z8.html
This is an interesting article in the difficulties and economics of disposing of old mattresses.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-challenge-of-finding-a-final-resting-place-for-old-mattresses-20211106-p596jz.html
CBA has struck a big blow in its bid to take on big tech with a $134 million funding round for leading artificial intelligence platform H20.ai, forming an alliance it hopes will let it take on the global tech giants.
https://www.afr.com/technology/cba-aims-to-be-ai-superpower-with-us100m-tech-plunge-20211105-p596bx
The ABC’s internal complaints’ division has ruled the national broadcaster did not breach its code of practice in a two-part series that focused on the way the Rupert Murdoch-owned US cable TV network, Fox News, covered the 2020 general election.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/abc-dismisses-fox-news-four-corners-complaint-20211106-p596lg.html
The Catholic Church has pumped $170m into its insurance company to help cover sex abuse claims amid massive losses and potential capital shortfalls that raise fears of future bailouts. Dioceses and religious orders across Australia made the payments to shore up Catholic Church Insurance, which recorded a $192m loss last financial year.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/catholic-abuse-sparks-insurance-crisis/news-story/30dc18fd38710a40a183427df09f441d
Adelaide’s building costs are among the nation’s highest, amid a skyrocketing demand for new homes and shortages of materials and workers.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/adelaides-housing-construction-costs-among-highest-in-nation-as-building-approvals-slow/news-story/ce8b4e8cb61e086205234acb79fcf066
Joe Biden’s best hope of retaining power is Trump, the ogre under the bed, opines Michael Cohen.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/07/joe-biden-best-hope-of-retaining-power-is-trump-the-ogre-under-the-bed
Cartoon Corner
Peter Broelman
Kate Moon
Matt Golding
David Rowe
Alan Moir
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2021/nov/06/writing-a-book-about-scott-morrison-the-fact-he-seemed-boring-wasnt-an-obstacle
… Kraft ‘cheese’.
max:
If the political pressure for a federal corruption body does bear fruit, sadly it is likely to be a patch job quickly implemented by Morrison as a political fix rather than something meaningful that really will investigate these kinds of corrupt practices.
I can see this happening.
Or branch stacking, ala Michael Sukkar?
BK
Thanks for the roundup. On this story:
“Emails and messages suggest that taxpayer funds were allegedly misused for Liberal Party purposes, highlighting again the need for a federal anti-corruption commission, write Nick McKenzie and Joel Tozer. They tell us about the branch stacking exploits of Michael Sukkar. Over to you, Scomo.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/michael-sukkar-knew-of-scheme-that-misused-public-funds-to-boost-faction-20211104-p5960i.html
One obvious question: Labor in admitting the “redshirts” scandal paid back $380,000 in 2018. I trust Mr Sukkar has explained how much the Liberal party spent of public funds for its private purposes on this occasion. I expect he has also confirmed the Liberal party will be paying the funds back, as Victorian Liberals called on Labor to do in 2017? Pot, kettle etc.
Paul Keating would have a wry smile on his face today, the Union backed IFM industry super funds are announcing today a $32 billion purchase of Sydney Airport.
This people’s asset was sold by John Howard in 2002 to Macquarie Bank spivs factory for $5.6b, who installed JWH’s head of PM&C Max the Axe Moore-Wilton as CEO.
Now back in the workers hands, courtesy of Keating superannuation system.
What the graph shows is that CO2 emissions reduced momentarily when there was Global crises
Alan Kohler says that politicians must stop lying about the cost of climate change.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/11/08/climate-change-lies-alan-kohler/
As per above Alan Kohler article
Since 1995, there have been five American presidents, six British prime ministers, seven Indian PMs and eight Australian PMs.
It simply isn’t possible for them to make a binding long-term promise, or rather they only make long-term promises that are likely to win them short-term votes.
And making the sort of binding promise necessary to achieve 1.5 degrees of warming would be guaranteed to lose any election.
As per Alan Koper article the cost of Carbo n to global economy is
According to a study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the global cost of carbon must rise from roughly $10 a tonne globally now to $60 a tonne immediately, and $75 a tonne by 2030 in order to hit the Paris Agreement targets (or 2 degrees and “preferably” 1.5).
PIIE goes on: “The impact of such a shock is familiar because it resembles the oil shocks of the 1970s, when a previously under-priced resource was suddenly revalued.”
“If priced at $75 a tonne, the aggregate value of the 36.4 gigatonnes of carbon emissions in 2019 would amount to 3.1 percentage points of 2019 world GDP,” the study says.
“[T]he 1974 oil shock resulted in the repricing of 19.7 billion barrels of oil from $3.3 to $11.6/barrel; the corresponding shock amounted to 3.6 percentage points of the 1973 global GDP.”
“
$7 million of taxpayers’ monies for a pipeline to irrigate a private golf course the connections of which just happen to have a large overlap with Liberal elites?
HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEY MAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATE!
Taxpayers’ funds being used to pay for a Liberal nosh up which is then being porked into a bit of the old branch stacking?
SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
As the future with AI seems to be the current topic in the news, this 60 Minutes discussion between Anderson Cooper with the Israeli author, Yuval Noah Harari, is interesting:
https://youtu.be/EIVTf-C6oQo
As the author of books which have tried to map out how Homo Sapiens will evolve as computers and AI evolves it’s probably a good idea to start considering the future now.
Ven
Shorter Kohler: COP 26 was a dismal failure.
We can either pay now or we can pay later.
But pay we will.
Zero net 60 and Zero net 70 by the first and third greatest CO2 emitters respectively were crucial to the failure.
Putin and Xi not attending were crucial to the failure.
Indonesia and Brazil pledging to end deforestation but basically going ahead with massive deforestation were crucial to the failure.
The paucity of wealth transfer by wealthy countries were crucial to the failure.
Of course Morrison could not help himself and added his shitty two bob’s worth to the catastrophe.
‘Ven says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 7:57 am
As per above Alan Kohler article
Since 1995, there have been five American presidents, six British prime ministers, seven Indian PMs and eight Australian PMs.
….
———————————————
How about Hu and Xi? They aren’t troubled by voters. They increased China’s emissions and continue to do so.
One final comment on some overnight discussion of submarines. From my reading, there are fundamental advantages of nuclear over conventional submarines in relation to range and time of deployment. So for Australia, this is a major benefit, given the difficulty we have had in crewing and keeping subs in the water; each operational sub we do have will spend more time doing the job. If you are Singapore, South Korea or Japan and your steaming distance to the South China Sea is very short, it is not a problem.
Like AE I still think the process to shift to a nuclear boat build has been terrible (worthy of an inquiry), Morrison and/or Defense chiefs appear to have lied (to Senate Estimates and otherwise), and it is far from clear to me why we should not have instead asked the French to switch to building their nuclear boat which we were modifying for the Attack class already.
Dr Doolittle, thanks for your thoughtful comments on the methodology of voter attitudes survey commissioned by Fairfax. I guess the traditional way to slice up the electorate is to do it by geography, age, gender, education, occupation, income, religion, ethnic origin and home ownership. All of these things have the advantage of being easy to measure, but they don’t reveal anything about the underlying belief systems of voters and how that influences their choices. I really liked the Fairfax survey because it tried to get at those belief systems-I think that’s a better way to try understand the electorate.
As for methodology, no-one would claim that every Australian fits exactly into one of the 7 buckets, and I wrote just that in my original post. The actual respondents to the survey apparently skewed pretty heavily to “progressive cosmopolitan”, and away from “prudent traditionalist”, so there was then a mathematical process to adjust the numbers to match the real electorate by age, gender and so on. Just as there would be for any opinion poll. The % break-up of the electorate into the arbritary buckets will have a margin of area associated with it, again like any opinion poll. It’s also understood that the survey was from 2017, so it’s a little aged. But I think the work has a lot of value, as a way to help understand groups of voters with similar belief patterns.
I read the article by Helen Razer. She seemed to be primarily attacking the idea of centrism being a good thing. Maybe she was disappointed that the survey numbers showed only a minority of Australians are in the “progressives” clusters. It would have been interesting to know what her own policy positions are on social and economic issues, given her view that centrism is a terrible thing. Personally I think that governments should just focus on pragmatic, practical solutions to society’s problems, based on facts and data, to improve the lives of all citizens, particularly those who are disadvantaged. If that means a government or party is centrist, is that a bad thing?
Ven
“Since 1995, there have been five American presidents, six British prime ministers, seven Indian PMs and eight Australian PMs.
It simply isn’t possible for them to make a binding long-term promise, or rather they only make long-term promises that are likely to win them short-term votes.”
It is important to leave out of such discussion all the democratic countries that have reduced emissions a lot in this period, like most of Europe.
PM
‘I read the article by Helen Razer. She seemed to be primarily attacking the idea of centrism being a good thing.’
…’
—————————————————–
Today’s progressive extremists are the historical descendents of parties, such as the Communist Party, which have generally garnered less than 5% of the popular vote in Australia.
The Greens by cobbling traditional far left ideology onto environmental concerns have managed to crank that up to a fairly consistent 10%.
Extremists are structurally excluded from significant power. This is not an accident. The vast majority of Australians, whether wrong or right, have always rejected extremism in the polls.
Helen Razer would not like that, for the obvious reasons that 90% of Australians including a vast amorphous blob in the vague centre, do not like Razer’s views.
Fair cop.
Whingeing about it will not help Razer or anyone else.
Ven at 7:46 am
One of the missing ‘elephants’ in that chart is the stocking level out in the ‘paddock’ . Population 1970 3.7 billion , population 2020 7.75 bilion.
Boerwars at 8:26 am
A problem is what gets labelled as “centrist” or centrism” . Tony Blair was a pin up child for it but by golly what he delivered to the chaps in The City made Maggie T proud.
”
Boerwarsays:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 8:13 am
‘Ven says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 7:57 am
As per above Alan Kohler article
Since 1995, there have been five American presidents, six British prime ministers, seven Indian PMs and eight Australian PMs.
….
———————————————
How about Hu and Xi? They aren’t troubled by voters. They increased China’s emissions and continue to do so.
”
China was a very poor country atleast till mid eighties.
Maybe Hu and Xi wanted/want China to become rich and a Super power like US then democratize and do something about climate change.
Probably they did not want to make the same mistake as Russia, which thought once it breaks Communists shackles the West will help it democratise and become financially secure. We know that what happened to Russia after Berlin wall came down.
BTW, I intensely dislike Communists and far-left. So what I am posting is putting myself in their shoes.
Ven @ #1314 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 7:57 am
In this context counting Rudd twice is silly.
poroti
Agree on definition issue.
”
Socratessays:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 8:23 am
Ven
“Since 1995, there have been five American presidents, six British prime ministers, seven Indian PMs and eight Australian PMs.
It simply isn’t possible for them to make a binding long-term promise, or rather they only make long-term promises that are likely to win them short-term votes.”
It is important to leave out of such discussion all the democratic countries that have reduced emissions a lot in this period, like most of Europe.
”
Socrates
No, such discussion cannot be left out of discussions because attaining power and retaining it is one of the most important criteria in lack of action on Climate action
Great piece.
These people are profoundly grateful that I am not in the plane with them.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/08/the-eastern-australian-waterbird-survey-is-a-white-knuckle-flight-of-avian-accounting
ABC – Victoria has recorded 1,126 new local COVID-19 cases and five deaths.
There are now 16,178 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 366 people have died during the current Delta outbreak.
There are 556 COVID-19 patients in hospital in Victoria, of whom 91 are in intensive care and 54 are on a ventilator.
The new cases were detected from 44,479 test results processed on Sunday.-
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-08/victoria-records-new-covid-cases-and-deaths/100601888
https://theconversation.com/just-1-7-of-people-in-png-are-vaccinated-against-covid-why-is-resistance-so-fierce-170876
A direct example of the pernicious effect of delusions, inculcated in a population by missionary Christianity, directly causing death. The vast majority of the PNG population have the same irrational, fuckwit belief set as our Prime Minister.
Good to hear Beetrooter lecturing ex-PMs on dignity this am on ABC News (via Scumrise)
I have always admired anyone who can look at a group of anything and estimate the numbers. You need sharp sight and an ability to focus quickly and I don’t have that.
Dog’s Breakfast
I was thinking how much harm this man has done to Australia. I wish I could wave a wand and he’d vanish.
We can expect more colds and flu as COVID restrictions lift. 5 germs to look out for
https://theconversation.com/we-can-expect-more-colds-and-flu-as-covid-restrictions-lift-5-germs-to-look-out-for-170263
“It’s not an influenza, but the onset has notes of the ’09 H1N1 strain.”
“Ah yes, that was a good year for H1N1.”
yabba
There’s no doubt that missionaries have done a lot of harm, but all so-called “primitive” societies have their own belief systems as they search for explanation of how their world works.
Thanks imacca for a couple of interesting submarine posts overnight.
I think we are now at the point where most of my initial reactions to AUKUS are being confirmed.
Dealing with your response to my post:
“ “I think there will need to be a commission of inquiry into this singular piece of Morrison merde and to make sure we don’t end up with a decades long capability gap.”
Commissions into Morrison Merde. Take a number mate.
Going to be interesting for the ALP to deal with when we get a change in Govt and i think they will focus on Jobs in SA and WA and that capability gap.
I think the answer will be Collins LOTE that includes updated motor, new diesels, new battery / electrical system. Maybe AIP, but by then there will be broad performance data around from subs using lithium batteries only. Japanese have just launched one.
Jobs will be Collins LOTE that the Swedes will be involved in. REplacement subs built / assembled here? The large version of the Swedes A26 i reckon is the lowest risk option.
https://www.saab.com/products/extended-range
Note the references to that “dud-sub”the Collins. This is what people mean when they talk “Son of Collins” i think. FFS the design work is substantially done.”
___________
The A26 was offered by SAAB (Kockums) as part of the competitive evaluation process back in 2015, but was knocked out of consideration at an early stage by the selection committee because Kockums hadn’t actually built a sub themselves for over 20 years. Nothing has changed in the meantime.
IF we were to now selection this oceanic variant of the A26 then we would be in a worse position than when the French were selected in early 2016.
Contrary to your assertion, most of the detailed design work would have to be done. We know that can be a 5 year process, even with an organisation that has continuously built large submarines – both conventional and nuclear – for over 150 years. We would be in a worse position than with the French because the Swedes design reference would be half the size of what we actually want (once again the canard that the French were ‘converting’ a nuclear sub needs to be hit on the head: the French were using the hull of the barracuda as a design reference point for a new oceanic sub [plus using certain sub systems – such as the same electric motor drive and pump jet] and drawing up their recent experience to pull it all together). If we selected SAAB now we would also be in a worse position than if we went with the Germans – because at least their upscaled type 212 [designated type 216] offered in the competitive evaluation process was based on an established design and built by folk who have manufactured as many subs as the French in recent decades.
By all means upgrade the Collins and look at way of extending their life: their relative low usage between 1996 and 2012 means that they do have life in them. But past 2040 that option becomes high risk in my view.
It seems clear to me now that the navy’s reluctance to incorporate either lithium batteries and AIP into the first block of Attack class boats (in fact it seems they are hostile to either technology) is now being used to peddle the line that the boats will be obsolete when they come into service. A monstrous lie based on a poor choice by navy (this brings into focus the real risk with the Attack class – would a conventional sub THAT large, using pump jet propulsion be compatible with lead acid batteries and a diesel generator? Ie. would those energy sources be suffiecuint to generate the electricity ‘hotel load’? That has always been the issue with the French proposal, going way back to preliminary discussions in the lead up to the 2009 White Paper. however, it is now clear that firming of fuel cell AIP technology and (relatively) safe Lithium battery technology puts that question beyond doubt: the Attack class boats will work IF they incorporate at least one of those technologies (but they work better in combination, as discussed by the author in imacca’s follow up article he posted last night and as the Naval Groups YouTube video presentation that i posted last week sets out specifically in regards to ‘oceanic’ SSKs – ie. the Attack class). I note that Naval Group has offered both Lithium batteries and AIP as part of the proposed second block build. In my view, given the developments over the past 24 months, that should be brought forward to the first block build (here the further delay due to Morrison’s fuck up may work to our advantage: getting the French relationship and the attack class back on track will afford more time for the design of the first block to incorporate either lithium batteries and/or a fuel cell AIP system.
Right now – at the end of 2021 we are running out of realistic options to the Attack class, in my view we need to commit to building the first block of 4 boats (but with AIP and lithium batteries) asap (meaning that the first hull needs to be laid down by no later than the beginning of 2025). I don’t believe Morrison (surprise, much?) when he says that the first boat would not be in service until 2038, but even if that were the case the next 3 boast would quickly follow it and we would be in a position to start retiring the Collins boats by the late 2039. Therefore there would be no capability gap, regardless of what further policies were taken out regarding other submarine platforms.
To get the French back on side generally with Australian will require a change of government. However for them to ever trust us again as a strategic security partner going forward – hence putting both the Attack class and any potential SSN deal with France back on the table – will require a purge of elements of Defence top brass: the French ambassador is right – there is a campaign to make the Attack class look bad. No doubt this is orchestrated by Morrison and Dutton’s offices, but it clearly includes uniformed personnel and probably civilian bureaucrats. They’ll all have to go.
Unfortunately, there seems to be little love for the Attack class from either the cross bench (soon to be former Senator Patrick) or Labor (Wolverine Kitchings) so I may well be tilting at windmills. Say hello to a massive capability gap. Alas.
A_E. It’s not too late to abandon this obsession with underwater sardine cans. Embrace the Greens policy of reduced military spending. Free your mind from onerous geopolitical considerations that you have no input into, or special skill in deciphering. Free your mind and your arse will follow.
Lizzie, I fully agree but listening to him give this hokey analogy of ‘dismounting the PM horse with dignity and walking off…not keeping a foot in a stirrup and being dragged through the horse manure…’ , going hard with the bush imagery ( but speaking as an accountant)
Compare and contrast interviews on RN Breakfast this morning:
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/top-uk-climate-advisor-pans-scott-morrison-climate-goals/13620916
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/keith-pitt-australia-cop26-coal-emissions-methane/13620966
Reality versus ???
Has Bullshitman got his personal photographer doing a bit of photoshopping ? Pic from SMH.
C@tmomma @ #1330 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 5:46 am
“Can remain completely submerged for years.” ???????
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_nuclear_submarines
Barney in Tanjung Bunga
Japanese subs already do.
Jaeger @ #1347 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 9:11 am
When you saw that quote, you thought sunken subs.
I thought…. how long can anyone survive on…
