Save the date

Confusion surrounding the likely date of the New South Wales state by-elections, to add to that we already have about the federal election.

This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.

Here’s what we do know:

Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.

• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.

• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.

• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.

• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.

• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.

• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.

Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.

Poll news:

• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.

• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.

• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.

• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.

Also:

• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,799 comments on “Save the date”

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  1. Last night I watched “The Brief” on ABC. Political reporters commenting on the week.

    I was not surprised when, after admitting that Morrison’s efforts on emissions reductions were a sham (scam?), they immediately turned to “But we don’t know anything about Labor.”

    Could possibly have said “We’re looking forward to hearing from Labor” instead.

  2. Shellbell @ #1331 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 8:21 am

    Great piece.

    These people are profoundly grateful that I am not in the plane with them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/08/the-eastern-australian-waterbird-survey-is-a-white-knuckle-flight-of-avian-accounting

    Nah, small planes are great. Went around Kati Thanda–Lake Eyre with the prettiest pilot on the planet. Too much to see to feel sick. And Cape Leveque to Horizontal falls with a steep dip down to see some whales on the way. It is like being a teenager at Australia’s Wonderland again.

    Put me on a ferry on a bumpy ride across the KI backstairs passage and, despite once living/working on a boat, all it takes is one person throwing up and I go all green.

  3. Greens would use balance of power to end coal

    The Greens would press for coal to be phased out this decade if they held the balance of power after the next federal election, leader Adam Bandt has said, as the global push to end the fossil fuel gathers momentum.

    Mr Bandt is confident neither the Coalition or Labor will win enough seats to form the next government in their own right, predicting a bigger contingent of Greens and independents in the next Federal Parliament.

    The Greens have drawn up a list of 10 target seats, which includes Labor and Alicia Payne’s electorate in Canberra and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong in Melbourne.

    If successful in enough of those contests, Mr Bandt has reaffirmed the Greens would end the Liberals’ more than eight years in office and start negotiations with Labor on some form of power-sharing deal.

    As global climate talks continue in Glasgow, Mr Bandt told The Canberra Times the Greens would leverage that position to push for a staged, but rapid, phasing out of coal and gas.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7498657/they-throw-petrol-on-the-fire-why-greens-are-gunning-for-balance-of-power/?cs=14230

  4. “Right now – at the end of 2021 we are running out of realistic options to the Attack class, in my view we need to commit to building the first block of 4 boats (but with AIP and lithium batteries) asap (meaning that the first hull needs to be laid down by no later than the beginning of 2025). ”

    Something from the French based on Attack class would be an option. AIP / LIB make it a good option.
    Thats utterly dependent on a change in Govt though, and the Australian content will be much lower i think.

  5. SK

    I did the channel crossing from Boulogne to Dover? in 1991.

    As the train arrived at Boulogne a sign said Vent 8. I told my fellow travelers before we disembarked 8 knots seemed pretty good.

    Force 8.

  6. Speaking of pilots of small planes… I just read last night that the pilot at Arkaroola is the son of a famous geologist (Reg Sprigg) who was first to discover fossils that defined a new era called the Ediacaran (after the Ediacaran hills in the Flinders SA where he found them). The Ediacaran era is where complex lifeforms first appeared. Reg Sprigg started the Arkaroola reserve.

  7. Good morning from Sukkarnistan.

    Amusing report in news.com.au
    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/investigation-finds-parliament-rent-boys-claim-false/news-story/2cca40b48bccb6059d9ff3d59299c88a

    A workplace investigation into claims that “rent boys” were procured for a male MP at Parliament House and that Coalition staffers masturbated on desks has found no evidence to support the claim that sex workers were ever signed into the building.

    So nobody signed them in. You can sneak them past the guards with no paperwork…
    However:

    The allegation that a male Coalition staffer masturbated on a desk and took videos and photos of the incident is not in dispute and photographic evidence of this activity was offered to investigators in support of the claim.

  8. lizzie @ #1339 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 9:22 am

    yabba

    There’s no doubt that missionaries have done a lot of harm, but all so-called “primitive” societies have their own belief systems as they search for explanation of how their world works.

    Those belief systems don’t generally result in the premature death of a significant proportion of the population. What has happened in PNG and throughout Polynesia is the substitution of several sets of ‘primitive’ beliefs by another set of similarly primitive beliefs dreamt up by a tribe of middle eastern of sheep herders, which happened to be taken up by the Roman Caesar Constantine, and then promulgated by a ruthless, ever self-enriching, hierarchy prepared to kill any non-believers.

    The most common punishment for blasphemy/heresy was capital punishment through hanging or stoning, justified by the words of Leviticus 24:13–16. ‘Then the Lord spoke to Moses, saying, “Bring out of the camp the one who cursed, and let all who heard him lay their hands on his head, and let all the congregation stone him.’

  9. Simon Katich @ #1352 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 9:55 am

    Shellbell @ #1331 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 8:21 am

    Great piece.

    These people are profoundly grateful that I am not in the plane with them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/08/the-eastern-australian-waterbird-survey-is-a-white-knuckle-flight-of-avian-accounting

    Nah, small planes are great. Went around Kati Thanda–Lake Eyre with the prettiest pilot on the planet. Too much to see to feel sick. And Cape Leveque to Horizontal falls with a steep dip down to see some whales on the way. It is like being a teenager at Australia’s Wonderland again.

    Put me on a ferry on a bumpy ride across the KI backstairs passage and, despite once living/working on a boat, all it takes is one person throwing up and I go all green.

    Agree about Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre, and go the lady pilots. We did Flinders – Cooper Pedy – Kati Thanda – Arkaroola – Flinders and didn’t turn a hair. Half an hour into the Bungle Bungles with my brother in law and I was sick as a dog. Apart from weather, temperature, and the plane, I wonder if its like car drivers – some are good at it, others less so.

    (I got across Drake Passage no wuckers when half the boat were strapped into their bunks.)

  10. yabba

    No argument from me. I do find the Hillsong types particularly galling, as they don’t even have the excuse of charitable works, but seem to think they can buy their way into their version of “heaven”.

  11. They’re not trying to save the natives. They say they are. But they’re trying to save themselves. Same today wth the door knockers and can rattlers. Guilt, and projection.

  12. Shellbell @ #1357 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 9:35 am

    SK

    I did the channel crossing from Boulogne to Dover? in 1991.

    As the train arrived at Boulogne a sign said Vent 8. I told my fellow travelers before we disembarked 8 knots seemed pretty good.

    Force 8.

    No. Simply….. no.

    I would take a plane and risk death. Those types of crossings just go on and on and on and on. I am trying to forget one such bumpy trip from Nelson to Wellington.

    I survived living on ship (which was really just a barge), “anchored” in the Montebello’s, during a cyclone. That was bad enough but the trip back to Dampier in swell was long with people vomiting, toilets overflowing… Ahhhh!

  13. C@t: your bullet point diagram is bullshit.

    The only nuclear submarines that have stayed submerged for years are the ones that have sunk. All other nuclear submarines spend far more time in a maiantence cycle than at sea. In fact to a far large degree than conevntial subs. The Virginia class boast for example are only at sea 14% of their total time in service.

    Secondly, conventional subs are NOT ‘easier to detect’ because they require frequent surfacing. The article posted overnight by imacca and written by a guy who did anti submarine warfare for years for the USN explains why in detail: even when hunting SSKs without modern batteries or AIP systems it was near impossible. Now, with AIPs and new batteries the opportunities to acquire a SSK when snorting are disappearing.

    Of course, what is ignored in this ‘indiscretion all rate’ debate is that nuclear submarines do have an indiscretion rate as well. Especially in littoral waters: they have masts and periscopes to send and receive information. They have to use those from time to time. They have a heat signature from their reactors that they cant hide totally. Because of the inherent nature of nuclear reactors, there is always something mechanical running on board any SSN, which will give off some sort of acoustic signature.

    A few weeks ago, you based your ‘all the way with the Good Ole’ US of A’ support of AUKUS based on what you read of articles written by experts. Perhaps you should actually starting reading more widely than a piece popular mechanics click bait. I never did shred you properly over that, did I comrade? But let me summarise what you actually missed in that whole 2019 article:

    * the author used one single event: a Chinese SSN surfaced in the Sea of Japan and ran up the Chinese flag before sailing off on the surface to SPECULATE that the SSN in question had been detected submerged by the Japanese navy.

    * he then used that SPECULATION to pivot to his real discussion point: namely that current in service Chinese SSNs were no more quiet than Los Angeles class SSNs and hence no match for ‘modern quieter Virginia SSNs’ and hence the PLAN would have to develop newer boats to maiantin the contest with America.

    What you obviously missed in that whole article was – much like a pea and thimble trick – the misdirection involved. Let me spell it out for you:

    * If that Chinese SSN did surface because it had been detected by the Japanese THEN the Japanese were able to do so BY CONVENTIONAL – NOT NUCLEAR SUBMARINE – technology; and

    * A comparison between old SSN tech and new SSN tech simply does not bear on the comparison between new SSK tech and new SSN tech – which is what is actually involved in the decision to cancel the Attack class program and acquire ‘modern quieter’ nuclear submarines, which is how Morrison and Dutton promoted the switch – and which like a performing seal you reactively went all ‘Arf ‘Arf ‘Arf over: being very condescending to both the French and other – non warmongering bludgers – to boot.

    let me refer you specifically to the following portions of this article posted by imacca last night:

    https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/what-happened-to-a-regionally-superior-conventional-submarine/

    “ There are some other untruths being uttered about the supposed superiority in all regards of nuclear- powered submarines over conventional ones. This is a clumsy retrospective attempt to make the diesel-electric Attack class look unacceptably bad. In an opinion piece published in the Australian Financial Review on October 26, Defence Minister Dutton wrote:

    “Compared to their conventional counterparts these submarines are superior in terms of stealth, speed, manoeuvrability, endurance and survivability. Nuclear-powered submarines can carry a greater number of advanced weapons and deploy underwater vehicles. There’s also significant interoperability advantages in working with the UK and US.”

    He is wrong on several counts:

    Nuclear submarines are not stealthier. This is factually incorrect. At all speeds, particularly slow and stationary, nuclear submarines are noisier, mainly because of the need to cool their reactors;
    Nuclear submarines are not more manoeuvrable. They are large and not particularly agile – certainly not compared with a Collins class or smaller vessels;
    The endurance of a submarine is limited by the amount of food that can be carried for the crew and the amount of time that people can be confined underwater in a large metal tube without going insane. A nuclear submarine certainly has the capacity to carry a lot more supplies than a conventional one, but human mental frailty means that missions of more than 70 days for either type are unlikely.
    The reason why Collins currently and the future Attack class use the AN/BYG-1 combat system and Mk 48 torpedoes is to maximise commonality with the US. This commonality therefore already exists. There is no commonality with UK submarines, which have their own combat system and weapons.
    Nuclear submarines can deploy uninhabited vessels, but so can conventional submarines. There is no difference.”

    ___________

    Look, I’m not anti SSNs: they undoubtably do have advantages in both sustained power and sustained speed. That may be useful to Australia if we are to undertake high intensity operations into either the broader Pacific or Indian oceans, but the Attack class (with AIP and lithium batteries) promised a capability that allowed for a full speed (25+ knots) submerged and silent run from one side of the Philippines Sea to the other, or from one end of the South China Sea to the other, without having to snort even once. With the capacity to store 24 large weapons (as in tomahawk missile or type 48 torpedo sized) there was also ample size to store unmanned autonomous drones as well.

    Ultimately my present views is that australia would be best serviced with a fleet of 6-7 Attack class subs permanent based at Darwin (thereby cutting transit time from Perth to north of the Arafura sea by two thirds) with a further fleet of Suffren class SSNs (perhaps enlarged to allow for a vertical launched multiple mission module) in Perth to deal with all those transoceanic high intensity missions that appear to provide a legitimate reason to consider nuclear submarines. Forward operation bases (for replenishment and basic sustainability between deployments) on both Manus and Christmas Island should also be developed.

  14. yabba says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:11 am

    The most common punishment for blasphemy/heresy was capital punishment through hanging or stoning, justified by the words of Leviticus 24:13–16. ‘Then the Lord spoke to Moses, saying, “Bring out of the camp the one who cursed, and let all who heard him lay their hands on his head, and let all the congregation stone him.’
    ____________
    Do you have a criticism of the New Testament or are you going to grab the low hanging fruit of the OT all the time?

  15. from @golfman1974

    This is one day of drugs for one COVID patient.
    It seems to me, if it is a big pharma conspiracy, they’d want you to not get vaccinated and instead catch COVID.

  16. SK

    We did Wellington Nelson in 2017 with a forecast of 100km gusts from the North in Wellington and a tremor or two thrown in. It seemed relatively calm and the final hour of so through the sounds is magic.

  17. What I’d forgotten about the Outback was the flies.

    Up your nostrils, in your ears, crawling around your eyes… bloody awful.

    On our recent trip to the South Australian Outback, we had to cut our trip short, missing Arkaroola and Lake Eyre (and their sexy pilots), due to Her Indoors coming down with a debilitating illness that turned out to be Ross River Fever (ironically probably caught from a coastal mosquito, judging by incubation times).

    But because that meant “no more flies” I was quite happy with the prospect of quitting the holiday, though I did manage to profess a profound regret to our travelling companions at having to leave them in the middle of the desert.

    It was one of my most magnificent performances, actually.

  18. billie @ #1369 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 10:21 am

    from @golfman1974

    This is one day of drugs for one COVID patient.
    It seems to me, if it is a big pharma conspiracy, they’d want you to not get vaccinated and instead catch COVID.

    billie, that’s for a paralysed ventilated patient in ITU – could be any patient, but yes, what basics you’d get ventilated for Covid.

    Muscle relaxant
    Narcotic
    Sedatives
    Anaesthetic agent
    a Beta blocker (heart rate control)
    Fluids and additives
    and Panadol.

  19. Lurker @ #1345 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 10:20 am

    yabba says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:11 am

    The most common punishment for blasphemy/heresy was capital punishment through hanging or stoning, justified by the words of Leviticus 24:13–16. ‘Then the Lord spoke to Moses, saying, “Bring out of the camp the one who cursed, and let all who heard him lay their hands on his head, and let all the congregation stone him.’
    ____________
    Do you have a criticism of the New Testament or are you going to grab the low hanging fruit of the OT all the time?

    The new testament is bullshit, too. Do you seriously believe that some bloke, of whom no independent historical record exists, walked on water? Seriously? Whoever wrote the ‘gospel according to Luke’ (who didn’t actually attach any author’s name to the manuscript; none of the ‘gospels according to’ have a known author) didn’t think it was worth mentioning. Funny that. The new testament promulgates the known, recognised lies that the so-called ‘gospels’ have known authors. If I had pointed this out in Europe in the 1600’s I would have been killed by the ‘church’.

  20. Socrates says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 6:53 am

    It certainly isn’t for the good of the economy as a whole. Normally international air travel is a net economic loss for Australia, as more of us leave than others visit.

    Outbound travel is analogous to importing from a balance of trade point of view. But the balance of trade is not in itself a very useful measure of economic good/bad. This has not been the case since the de-regulation of the currency in the 1980s.

    The ability to import – in this case, to travel abroad – and pay for it using Australian currency is an economic benefit to Australia. It means we are able to take advantage of the production that occurs in other countries.

    Australia does not have to hoard its own currency. This would make no sense at all from an economic perspective – from the perspective of improving the well being/welfare of the people, who derive all kinds of benefits from the opportunity to travel. Australia cannot run out of its own legal tender.

    Inbound and outbound travel have been wondrous things for this island. The problems we have are not caused by travel, but by a pandemic. We should be focussing on measures to handle public health rather than on irrelevant and misleading questions, such as whether international travel is an economic benefit or not.

  21. Lurker @ #1368 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 7:20 am

    yabba says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:11 am

    The most common punishment for blasphemy/heresy was capital punishment through hanging or stoning, justified by the words of Leviticus 24:13–16. ‘Then the Lord spoke to Moses, saying, “Bring out of the camp the one who cursed, and let all who heard him lay their hands on his head, and let all the congregation stone him.’
    ____________
    Do you have a criticism of the New Testament or are you going to grab the low hanging fruit of the OT all the time?

    If the Old Testament is no longer relevant, why do they still publish it with the New Testament?

  22. No one has denied that diesel-powered submarines have to snorkel, hence are more easily detectable. Also that they too can carry nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. Therefore, nuclear submarines which have to surface much less than diesel, are preferable to have.

    Also, politics has determined that anything French is out. For both sides of politics for obvious political reasons. Labor would be slammed if they went back to the French and the Liberals never will.

    Get used to it guys. 🙂

  23. Flies in the outback are a problem, and literally drive you crazy. I have a friend and former colleague who was for many years a NT cop. He told me once that the common problem of people stranded in the outback and abandoning their cars is driven by a temporary insanity pushing them to do anything to get away from the flies. Just walk, usually into whatever wind is available.

  24. Firefox says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:00 am
    Greens would use balance of power to end coal

    The Greens resume their campaign for the re-election of the LNP.

    Labor must make it absolutely clear. They will not parlay with the Greens. Not this time. Not ever. If the Greens want to play B-o-P politics, it will have to be with the Liberals. Labor cannot be in it.

  25. The below article describes How Tony Abbott unintentionally and unwittingly a bridge to Net Zero. I am sure he would be horrified to know that because of his action to ‘Carbon tax’
    It is an article by respected economist and journalist Ian Verrander.

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100601620?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16363212352973&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2021-11-08%2Fhow-tony-abbott-helped-build-a-bridge-to-net-zero%2F100601620


    Given the vicious debate that ensued after Julia Gillard introduced a carbon tax — which economists almost universally love but which are electoral poison — it went virtually unnoticed that Tony Abbott later introduced a system that put a price on carbon.

    Mr Abbott’s Emissions Reduction Fund initially distributed billions of dollars to big polluters via a system that created Australian Carbon Credit Units.

  26. yabba says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:30 am

    Lurker @ #1345 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 10:20 am

    yabba says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:11 am

    The most common punishment for blasphemy/heresy was capital punishment through hanging or stoning, justified by the words of Leviticus 24:13–16. ‘Then the Lord spoke to Moses, saying, “Bring out of the camp the one who cursed, and let all who heard him lay their hands on his head, and let all the congregation stone him.’
    ____________
    Do you have a criticism of the New Testament or are you going to grab the low hanging fruit of the OT all the time?

    The new testament is bullshit, too. Do you seriously believe that some bloke, of whom no independent historical record exists, walked on water? Seriously? Whoever wrote the ‘gospel according to Luke’ (who didn’t actually attach any author’s name to the manuscript; none of the ‘gospels according to’ have a known author) didn’t think it was worth mentioning. Funny that. The new testament promulgates the known, recognised lies that the so-called ‘gospels’ have known authors. If I had pointed this out in Europe in the 1600’s I would have been killed by the ‘church’.
    _________________
    I agree. But one of the hardest problems for atheists is confronting the New Testament and the Sermon on the Mount which seems a rough approximation to humanist ethics.

    I think the best take on the NT is Christopher Hitchens’ critique of Christ taking on our sins. Vicarious Redemption he calls it. It should be in the armory of all atheists:

    “I find something repulsive about the idea of vicarious redemption. I would not throw my numberless sins onto a scapegoat and expect them to pass from me; we rightly sneer at the barbaric societies that practice this unpleasantness in its literal form. There’s no moral value in the vicarious gesture anyway. As Thomas Paine pointed out, you may if you wish take on a another man’s debt, or even to take his place in prison. That would be self-sacrificing. But you may not assume his actual crimes as if they were your own; for one thing you did not commit them and might have died rather than do so; for another this impossible action would rob him of individual responsibility. So the whole apparatus of absolution and forgiveness strikes me as positively immoral, while the concept of revealed truth degrades the concept of free intelligence by purportedly relieving us of the hard task of working out the ethical principles for ourselves.”

  27. “If the Old Testament is no longer relevant, why do they still publish it with the New Testament?”

    To give context to the religious reforms developed in the NT.

  28. @max
    Your last comment about partisanship when it comes to attacking corruption at an Opposition Party level but waving it away when it occurs in your Party goes right to the epicentre of corruption. The partisanship of so much of our media in this current situation where Labor is copping it ,and justifiably so, where Sukkars behaviour is basically ignored, is nothing but acquiescence in the weakening of democracy.
    Has the polarisation of politics in this country reached such levels that so many are prepared to turn a blind eye when it comes to holding on to power, and I aim that at voters who so easily do that.
    Do they not give a stuff about democracy that they do so? I ask the same of posters in this blog who jump to their Party’s defence but ignore what their conscience must, if they are believers in democracy, be telling them?
    Make sure your own house is in order before criticising others housekeeping, and when you vote, put democracy and accountability first.

  29. I can understand Doherty’s repeated calls to get vaccinated, implicitly concerned with the publicity surrounding new & effective C.19 meds. Although improving, vaccine reluctance is still a factor in Queensland, and the knowledge of improved treatments may stall the aim of 80% double dose vaccination by mid-December. Also, a factor is Queensland’s relatively low number of cases and deaths.

  30. Dandy Murray says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:45 am

    “If the Old Testament is no longer relevant, why do they still publish it with the New Testament?”

    To give context to the religious reforms developed in the NT.
    ______________
    I believe it is to show how Christ fulfilled the requirements for the messiah as laid out in the OT.

    So when Christ entered Jerusalem, he looked at the OT and saw that the messiah was supposed to enter Jerusalem on a donkey.

    Christ then said ‘produce the Ass’. And the Ass was produced.

  31. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:37 am
    Lurker @ #1368 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 7:20 am

    yabba says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:11 am

    The most common punishment for blasphemy/heresy was capital punishment through hanging or stoning, justified by the words of Leviticus 24:13–16. ‘Then the Lord spoke to Moses, saying, “Bring out of the camp the one who cursed, and let all who heard him lay their hands on his head, and let all the congregation stone him.’
    ____________
    Do you have a criticism of the New Testament or are you going to grab the low hanging fruit of the OT all the time?
    If the Old Testament is no longer relevant, why do they still publish it with the New Testament?

    The Old….it’s retained for the poetry. the Word. Strong stuff, words. If words could be banned, well they sure would be.

    The Reader has to remind themselves when ingesting the Testaments that they’re not your actual testimony. They are inventions. They are the rehearsed subscriptions of minds that enjoy make-believe for adults. In this respect, they are god-porn. Not that there’s anything inherently wrong with that. But they should probably attract an X rating for the protection of minors and carry a warning that they’re not educational, they are an amusement.

  32. “ No one has denied that diesel-powered submarines have to snorkel, hence are more easily detectable.”

    Oh fuck. You haven’t read a thing (or at least absorbed anything that doesn’t conform to your hard baked bias), have you?

    There is no ‘hence are more easily detectable (than an SSN performing the same task)’ ipso facto just because diesel powered subs have a snorkel.

    The snorkel is only one factor to be taken into the ‘detection because of snorkel indiscretion’ equation. The art of deploying a snorkel stealthfully – especially in the turbulent littoral waters that SSKs operate in – largely negates the disadvantage (please read that article by an anti submarine warfare expert posted at around 1:35am by imacca this morning for Christ’s sake).

    However in those same environs the detection limitations of SSNs come to the fore: they are larger, they are hotter, they always have something mechanical operating and … drumroll … they have to deploy their mast and periscope from time to time to be useful as well.

    That’s all before one takes into account the fact that the need to snorkel for modern SSKs is likely to be only once in three to eight weeks, not every few hours (like WW2) or days (like today) because of fuel cell and lithium batteries.

  33. Dandy Murray says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:55 am

    Lurker,

    That may well be why it was written the way it was, but I was answering the question Barney posed.
    ______
    Forget about Barney! He’s not smart enough for this conversation.

  34. “If the Old Testament is no longer relevant, why do they still publish it with the New Testament?”

    ***

    Especially when it contains passages such as this which condones the rape and murder of children…

    Numbers 31: 17-18 (KJV)

    And the Lord spake unto Moses, saying,

    17 Now therefore kill every male among the little ones, and kill every woman that hath known man by lying with him.

    18 But all the women children, that have not known a man by lying with him, keep alive for yourselves.

    https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Numbers+31&version=KJV

    Decent Christians would no doubt be utterly appalled by the above, as any decent person would be. I actually had a brief convo with a father/pastor once on Twitter who suggested he could provide a “treatment” for the above passages. In other words, he was going to try to spin it so that child rape and murder didn’t sound so bad. He should have just disavowed it – there is no spin that can make child rape and murder ok. I have no issue with someone being a regular everyday Christian, but fundamentalists on the other hand have really signed up to some truly sick stuff.

  35. Singing Bloos @ #1381 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 10:41 am

    Firefox says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:00 am
    Greens would use balance of power to end coal

    The Greens resume their campaign for the re-election of the LNP.

    Labor must make it absolutely clear. They will not parlay with the Greens. Not this time. Not ever. If the Greens want to play B-o-P politics, it will have to be with the Liberals. Labor cannot be in it.

    So the next government could be a Liberal/National/Green coalition?
    While Labor will remain pure as the driven snow on the opposition benches.

  36. ….I think the best take on the NT is Christopher Hitchens’ critique of Christ taking on our sins. Vicarious Redemption he calls it.

    The counter-face to redemption is sin, or guilt. Implicitly, if we all require redemption, we are all guilty. This is about the worst imprecation of all. The stories in the Bible are guilt-propagation fables. They should be erased. The greatest sin of course is to become an apostate. We’re this a factual matter, then I would have been in sin since my childhood. How utterly bizarre that is.

    To appeal to reason and to apply it in one’s life is to come a sinner and to merit eternal punishment. Yup. How utterly bizarre. How hostile to intellect, to the human, to the quest for truth.

  37. Anyway, my point about concentrating on the OT was that Christians say that the NT is the updated Testament. Atheists must forego the easy pickings of the OT barbarism and attack the perverted ideas of the NT with gusto! Huzzah!

  38. mundo says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:59 am
    Singing Bloos @ #1381 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 10:41 am

    Firefox says:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:00 am
    Greens would use balance of power to end coal

    The Greens resume their campaign for the re-election of the LNP.

    Labor must make it absolutely clear. They will not parlay with the Greens. Not this time. Not ever. If the Greens want to play B-o-P politics, it will have to be with the Liberals. Labor cannot be in it.
    So the next government could be a Liberal/National/Green coalition?
    While Labor will remain pure as the driven snow on the opposition benches.

    Labor must never again parlay with the Greens…not if they ever wish to govern again. Iron law.

  39. “ Also, politics has determined that anything French is out. For both sides of politics for obvious political reasons. Labor would be slammed if they went back to the French and the Liberals never will.

    well, according to the politics of ScoMo and Dutton perhaps. If they are gone, in humiliation, and a commission of inquiry exposes their calumnies then perhaps not even Mordor would stand in the way of a return to a French deal.

    Especially if the Americans were on board by way of the provision of combat systems, weapons and multi missions modules for example. Especially if France were brought on board the AUKUS arrangements (and the only cock block there is potentially from the Brits who saw AUKUS as a way to shoulder their way into a willing victim-client for armaments deals at the expense of the EU. At the end of the day America will give zero fury is about that gambit because for them maintaining their alliance with the whole EU – hence NATO -is more important than the puffed up pretensions of a little island that used to have an empire).

  40. Cut Snake @ #1380 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 10:40 am

    Flies in the outback are a problem, and literally drive you crazy. I have a friend and former colleague who was for many years a NT cop. He told me once that the common problem of people stranded in the outback and abandoning their cars is driven by a temporary insanity pushing them to do anything to get away from the flies. Just walk, usually into whatever wind is available.

    Or bring some Tropical Strength Aerogard or similar with you.

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