This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Lots of heroic assumptions there, Earlwood. Not a lot of them are based in reality.
“Labor must never again parlay with the Greens…not if they ever wish to govern again. Iron law.”
***
Firefox says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:58 am
“If the Old Testament is no longer relevant, why do they still publish it with the New Testament?”
***
Especially when it contains passages such as this which condones the rape and murder of children…
Numbers 31: 17-18 (KJV)
And the Lord spake unto Moses, saying,
…
17 Now therefore kill every male among the little ones, and kill every woman that hath known man by lying with him.
18 But all the women children, that have not known a man by lying with him, keep alive for yourselves.
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Numbers+31&version=KJV
Decent Christians would no doubt be utterly appalled by the above, as any decent person would be. I actually had a brief convo with a father/pastor once on Twitter who suggested he could provide a “treatment” for the above passages. In other words, he was going to try to spin it so that child rape and murder didn’t sound so bad. He should have just disavowed it – there is no spin that can make child rape and murder ok. I have no issue with someone being a regular everyday Christian, but fundamentalists on the other hand have really signed up to some truly sick stuff.
“….a regular everyday Christian but [a] fundamentalist….”
There’s very little to pick between them when all is said and done. They subscribe to ideas of the supernatural that are entirely fantastical. They attach mysterious value to rites and rituals that are really actually nothing but completely spurious. They congregate and they play dress-ups. They recite old poetry and drone monotonously. They parade for each other. They are utterly weird.
Do we have a NATO Base in Australia? No.
Is France a senior leader of NATO? Yes.
Is France disposed to helping Australia? No.
Lots of wishful thinking about what would happen to Australia-France relations IF Labor were elected just doesn’t factor in real politik.
Firefox says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 11:07 am
“Labor must never again parlay with the Greens…not if they ever wish to govern again. Iron law.”
True story. There are some immutable truths in Australian politics. That’s one of them. The Greens are a No-Go area for Labor. Gillard, a Victorian, could not see that. Labor eyes from other States see it very clearly. Albo is Green-resistant. He’s not for dealing.
“ Get used to it guys. ”
That kind of trolling is worthy of RWNJs. It should be beneath you C@t:
“You’ve been owned by ScoMo and Dutton, you leftards. Get used to it”. maybe you are auditioning for SkyNoos after dark: ‘Outsiders, with Rowan Dean, Joel Fitzgibbon and Crankmomma”.
Politics is largely dependent upon how the debate is framed. IF it is framed by the fact that former MP Morrison and former Defence Minister Dutton lied outrageously and in the process alienated not one but two key allies, than in fact both of said allies were happy to work together to assist Australia to maintain its existing conventional submarine capability AND pivot towards nuclear subs, then the whole ‘politics’ equation is turned on its head, isn’t it?
Speaking of “God porn”, lately I have found myself wondering why belief in a cabal of paedophiles ruling the world, injecting unsuspecting patients with microchips, rigging everything from elections to petrol prices, bringing back Kennedys from the dead to Dealy Plaza, and seeking to control the world by polluting our drinking water with fluoride is anything much different from belief in a Jewish peasant, the literal son of God, whose mother bore him via virgin birth 2,000 years ago, rose from the dead, brought others back from the dead, turned water into wine, co-created the universe, has existed and will exist forever, and talks to selected members of His sect personally on a daily basis via telepathic means.
Why is one a wacko conspiracy theory with no basis in fact that is permitted to be universally ridiculed despite this ridicule being personally offensive to those who believe in the conspiracy, and the other an accepted, respected, and indeed institutionalised part of many modern societies, protected by law from discrimination and vilification, as well as taxation?
They both seem as crazy and stupid as each other, to me.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 11:12 am
“ Get used to it guys. ”
That kind of trolling is worthy of RWNJs. It should be beneath you C@t:
_______
C@t, and a few others could be a fanatic in any party. Take your pick really. They all act the same.
Doesn’t work on Outback flies C@t.
The only thing that kinda works is a broad brimmed hat with a net over it. And then it only provides partial relief (you can still hear them buzzing).
Labor will be slammed about everything.
Is there a contract for subs to replace the Collins? Or just some sort of MoU or some such?
lizzie at 10:15 am
Hillsong and it’s ‘prosperity theology’ is made for the greedy the selfish the mendacious.
“ Lots of heroic assumptions there, Earlwood. Not a lot of them are based in reality.”
None of your assumptions are anywhere near reality. Its next level embarrassing for you actually c@t.
France is not disposed to helping an Australian Government led by ScoMo. Otherwise it is well disposed to continuing down a strategic relationship pathway. More to the point, so is America. ScoMo and Dutton hubris, a creation ‘all the way with USA mentality inn the ADF (they produced Bucephalus after all, so what does one expect) and UK self interest are the only potential cock blocking that would have to be undone.
That’s the beauty of a post election inquiry: not just would there be a new government to government relationship with the election of an Albanese Labor government (Ill give you that one – an heroic assumption) BUT an inquiry would create a pathway to remove all these potential blockages:
1. establishing in the public’s mind the lies behind any current anti-French sentiment being stoked on behalf of ScoMo (who would be the dead king so who exactly is going to keep prosecuting lies on his behalf?),
2. Reestablishing the viability of the French as an option for a submarine partnership, and
3. Creating the space for the Americans to welcome France back on board the broader South Pacific strategic alliance.
If and when President Biden announced that whoever provided submarines to Australia (whether conventional or nuclear) such submarines would use American combat systems and weapons and that the administration would work in partnership with whomever was a successful bidder, then political heat would be dead.
Remember, the French largely won the bid back in 2016 because the American administration (Obama-Biden) supported it. This time around an American conglomerate – Huntington Ingles – will be a competitor. however, the Americans own enormous naval ship building demand for its own navy over the next 30 years – especially the demand for more and more SSNs (as they rebuild a 500 ship navy from its present size of just under 300 ships) creates an enormous potential headache for them to also pivot to providing an Australian nuclear submarine capability: a French option, but with American combat systems and weapons may well seem attractive to them, given those constraints.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1406 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 11:12 am
Except you are in complete denial about who owns the frames. ICYMI, there has already been debate about French versus American Nuclear Subs, since the AUKUS announcement, and, on the whole, as far as my ear to the ground can tell, the Australian public appears happy with the change to the American subs.
Also, you only have to listen to the outrage machine being cranked up to 11 in the media in general, but mainly spurred on by the Murdoch media, just because Labor seemed to agree with Macron about whether Morrison lies or not, to get a window into how they would weaponise any change to the AUKUS deal should Labor in government federally seek to go back to the French. Such are the seeds that have now been sown in the public mind. In the minds of people who just don’t have time for elaborate debates. But who are very susceptible to Murdoch and Coalition propaganda.
I’m just realistic about these things. And no, I’m not the mind puppet of Morrison and Dutton. I consider that a puerile argument from you, Earlwood, when it seems you have nothing more substantial than that to accuse me of being.
None of your assumptions are anywhere near reality. Its next level embarrassing for you actually c@t.
🙄
poroti @ #1411 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 10:54 am
It is an ‘us v them’ congregation. It is divisive and deliberately so. It may be inclusive in that anyone can join. But it is exclusionary in that if you arent with them, your value as a human is very much diminished. Just like any cult.
Matthias Cormann now in favor of a carbon tax, Labor now opposed.
You could be forgiven for thinking you had suddenly woken up in some bizarre mirror universe …
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/11/07/labor-rules-out-carbon-tax/
Vote for policies, not parties. Vote independent.
“ Except you are in complete denial about who owns the frames. ICYMI, there has already been debate about French versus American Nuclear Subs, since the AUKUS announcement, and, on the whole, as far as my ear to the ground can tell, the Australian public appears happy with the change to the American subs.
Also, you only have to listen to the outrage machine being cranked up to 11 in the media in general, but mainly spurred on by the Murdoch media, just because Labor seemed to agree with Macron about whether Morrison lies or not, to get a window into how they would weaponise any change to the AUKUS deal should Labor in government federally seek to go back to the French. Such are the seeds that have now been sown in the public mind. In the minds of people who just don’t have time for elaborate debates. But who are very susceptible to Murdoch and Coalition propaganda.
I’m just realistic about these things”
You are obvlious to the obvious – and blatant – fact that all that confected outrage is being generated for the sole purpose of getting Morrison re-elected. If and when he is the dead king, unlamented in his political grave, THAT outrage immediately starts to dissipate, in my view. The dissipation of said outrage would be hastened by the steps I’ve outlined above: it would be all over if and when Uncle Sam himself says that France is OK to deal with on defence procurements (which, correct me if I’m wrong here … has actually already largely happened, hasn’t it?). How on earth could even Mordor maintain an anti Labor/French outrage over AUKUS if/when the American President himself is on board?
The argument seems to be that we can’t go back to French subs because of the expected reaction of the press. If we have a Rudd Royal Commission and then get rid of the billionaires monopoly, and have some truth in the media laws, we can then do what is best for a change.
Bushfire Bill @ #1409 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 11:21 am
Oh dear. 😀
Although I can vaguely remember from travelling around the bottom half of Australia, litorally(sic) via the coast, from Sydney to Perth, and camping all the way, that flies weren’t much of a problem. Maybe coastal flies aren’t as bad as interior flies? Though we had to move up into the interior more to cross the Nullabor and our old Peugeot 404 had nothing even resembling Air Con, so it was open windows all the way! I THINK when camping we relied on the smoke from our fire to keep the flies at a healthy distance.
That’s a big ‘IF’, Granny Anny. And it would take years, during which time the Murdoch and Stokes media, plus the Coalition, would take all the wind out of federal Labor’s sails as they tried to get other good things done. Especially wrt Climate Change. Which is a much more important issue to me than the subs.
A bit more on the 7 political tribes which might interest people. Cosmopolitans and egalitarians together are 36% of voters nationally, but only 26% in Queensland! So why has Labor done so well at state level? Is it just that the issues and the leaders are different?
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/how-queensland-compares-politically-to-the-rest-of-australia-20170206-gu6r56.html
Labor Premiers in Queensland are more centre then their federal counterparts where the leaders federally are mostly from Sydney and Melbourne and tend to be more Left. While Queenslanders are happy to vote for Queensland Labor there not necessary are happy to vote for Canberra Labor.
Queensland Labor also does a better job then its state LNP opponents in bridging the gap between Southeast Queensland and the regions. They have their Brisbane MP’s who run on the Labor brand. And while they have MP’s in the regions who tend to develop their own brands (Bruce Saunders the former ‘gelato shop owner’ in Maryborough, Barry O’Rourke in Rockhampton and Aaron “I used to be a paramedic” Harper in Thuringowa).
LNP oppositions are divided and hopeless. Because most of their MP’s are regional and rural based. They have leaders based in the rural and regions (Lawrence Springborg, Deb Frecklington etc). Who just can’t appeal to urban Brisbane voters where they desperately need to make inroads. And because they are in opposition so frequently there leaders don’t get the experience to be ready for the rigors to be leader. Frecklington was only a junior minster in the Newman government before being opposition leader. It’s a vicious cycle, the more they lose the more they have to look for another alternative leader.
Finally LNP are weak on policy. Yes, you can go overboard as Bill Shorten had so many policy’s that it made his platform too broad and more vulnerable to run a scare campaign. But the LNP policies last election were uninspiring, pedestrian, and weak. One lecturer from QUT suggested the National party section of the LNP just doesn’t bother with policy that they tend to avert it.
Player One says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 11:37 am
Matthias Cormann now in favor of a carbon tax,
_____________________________
Why don’t you go and vote in the OECD elections?
“ Is there a contract for subs to replace the Collins? Or just some sort of MoU or some such?”
There is a study, leading to a report. In 18 months. Good luck.
C@t seems to think there is limited to no room for an incoming labor Governemnt to perform some political and diplomatic jujitsu to bring our defence and star tic relationships back into normality. I call Shenanigans.
Let me be blunt: I believe that C@t simply doesn’t want to bring them back into normality, because she wants the Angloshpere to take down China and she is in love the the nuclear rapture that’ll make that all happen: Yew Haw! Slim Pickens time. In short, a blatant warmonger.
We can’t rely on Morrison to manage Sukkar out of politics at the next election – as Andrews did with Somyurek, so I guess it’s up to the voters in Deakin to set some standards of behaviour.
‘Simon Katich says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 10:07 am
Speaking of pilots of small planes… I just read last night that the pilot at Arkaroola is the son of a famous geologist (Reg Sprigg) who was first to discover fossils that defined a new era called the Ediacaran (after the Ediacaran hills in the Flinders SA where he found them). The Ediacaran era is where complex lifeforms first appeared. Reg Sprigg started the Arkaroola reserve.’
——————————————-
When we visited Arkaroola they were busy selling Plimer’s then latest (and hitherto) last book. They were not all that happy when I pointed to them that real people had found dozens of errors of fact or statistical errors in the book.
Ok, where is SHY’S happy snap from Glasgow for today, as kindly supplied by Firefox?
What will it feature I wonder? Giving Boris a peck on the cheek? A deep and meaningful conversation with Greta? Hobnobbing with Cormann?
The possibilities are endless.
“The only thing that kinda works is a broad brimmed hat with a net over it. And then it only provides partial relief (you can still hear them buzzing).”
***
Go the whole beekeeper’s suit lol, that’ll keep em out. Probably just about the only thing that would. Might get a tad hot wearing one in the desert all day though!
“Ok, where is SHY’S happy snap from Glasgow for today, as kindly supplied by Firefox?”
***
Thanks for reminding me to check again. She hadn’t posted anything this morning when I looked before but now you’re in luck…
Day 7 of Sarah in Scotland!
*deleted*
*deleted*
Edit: Woah, have no idea why that got posted three times. Maybe PB recognises how popular this Sarah in Scotland series has become and wants more! 😀
TPOF @ #1422 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 11:43 am
We don’t need to go to the OECD. Their carbon taxes are going to come to us. Labor being opposed to them is about as sensible as being opposed to gravity.
It’s a cynical – and very short-sighted and stupid – electoral ploy.
I suspect Labor just hopes the election will be held before the reality of what is heading our way hits home. Either that, or they just think the electorate is basically stupid. Sadly, they may be correct in that.
The polling results re the state seat of Kew were clearly decisive enough for any remaining Tim Smith backers to finally abandon him – which is a lesson for other Libs that Smiths style of politics is electoral poison.
Smiths exit and a less outspoken opposition over the next 12 months will narrow the election margin somewhat I think which perhaps will set a platform for a competitive 2026 Vic election.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1423 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 11:44 am
Bullshit. But whatever floats your boat, or submarine, or whatever, Earlwood. It appears you have nothing more than condescending contempt. Sad.
Simon Katich @ #1410 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 11:24 am
Labor allows itself to be slammed about everything.
It’s like a disability.
I’m finding SH-Ys latest photo ops far less cringeworthy than Morrison’s and Albanese’s.
Ven says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 8:40 am
”
Boerwarsays:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 8:13 am
‘Ven says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 7:57 am
As per above Alan Kohler article
Since 1995, there have been five American presidents, six British prime ministers, seven Indian PMs and eight Australian PMs.
….
———————————————
How about Hu and Xi? They aren’t troubled by voters. They increased China’s emissions and continue to do so.
”
China was a very poor country atleast till mid eighties.
Maybe Hu and Xi wanted/want China to become rich and a Super power like US then democratize and do something about climate change.
…’
=====================================
Kohler’s thesis was that democracies are failing because leaders in democracies would lose their jobs if they acted on climate change.
I pointed out Hu and in particular Xi (I could have added Putin) as dictators who are refusing to act on climate change in the absence of democracy. These are clearly two real world cases which are contrary to Kohler’s thesis.
Further, I suggest that a consistent element of autocracies, historically at least, is that they have been WORSE for the environment than democracies.
So good you supplied it twice!
So she made the front page of the Financial Times!
Or did she pick up a random poster for the shoot because there was no one to be photographed with?
A-E
Having watched your interactions with Cat I make the following observations:
Your informed discussions on submarine issues are infinitely superior to those of Cat who has consistently demonstrated a more or less complete failure to understand the technical issues.
I suggest you keep up with your posts on the subs. They are very good indeed.
I suggest you take Cat’s submissions on subs as seriously as I do – and ignore them.
When does Bushfire Bill post his daily Bubsy update?
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 11:57 am
I’m finding SH-Ys latest photo ops far less cringeworthy than Morrison’s and Albanese’s.
==================
troll fail
mundo @ #1434 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 11:57 am
Turning certain victory into defeat is Labor’s superpower.
Billie says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 12:02 pm
When does Bushfire Bill post his daily Bubsy update?
=====================
Every two or three days.
If Albanese wants to guarantee an election victory for Labor he will focus on ‘integrity’ and ensure his federal ICAC policy includes retrospectivity and provides wide powers.
Boerwar @ #1439 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 12:02 pm
Not my fault you’re triggered by such an innocuous personal perspective.
Boerwar – thanks!
Carbon tax = Green policy. It is therefore never going to be promoted by Labor, who cannot appear to be trojans for their constant detractors.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 11:44 am
“ Is there a contract for subs to replace the Collins? Or just some sort of MoU or some such?”
There is a study, leading to a report. In 18 months. Good luck.
…..
=============================
They will do everything in their power to bodgie something into place before the next federal election. Haste makes waste.
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 12:06 pm
Boerwar @ #1439 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 12:02 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 11:57 am
I’m finding SH-Ys latest photo ops far less cringeworthy than Morrison’s and Albanese’s.
==================
troll fail
Not my fault you’re triggered by such an innocuous personal perspective.
=======================
yet another Rex troll fail
“Or did she pick up a random poster for the shoot because there was no one to be photographed with?”
***
I do believe you will find that COP26 is taking a break today – it’s Sunday in Scotland.
Boerwar @ #1436 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 11:57 am
What nonsense you post. China is acting on climate change. Are they doing enough? No – almost no-one is. But they are doing more a heck of a lot more than we are.