This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Lord Deben not happy with Prime Minister Morrison
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-08/scott-morrison-cop26-doesnt-understand-urgency-climate-change/100602228
Roy Orbison
“Gee, some people have gone vewwy qwiet on the issue of branch stacking.”
Odd isn’t it? The same folks who were providing breathless and up-to-the minute reports on the antics of the ALP… have suddenly found something better to do.
BK @ #1493 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 1:26 pm
It was Daniel Andrews who acted decisively on Somyurek, which then brought in the ALP national exec.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/15/adem-somyurek-quits-as-victorian-labor-minister-after-explosive-allegations-of-branch-stacking
Morrison on the other hand turns a blind eye to all sorts of dodgy corrupt practices.
Food for thought for those loud and hysterical about Climate Change actions that must be done. Opinions all over the world seem to show the same commitment to action as long as it does not involve any sacrifices on their behalf. It’s a very important issue right up to the moment they vote. And, then it’s not!
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/07/few-willing-to-change-lifestyle-climate-survey
“ Odd isn’t it? The same folks who were providing breathless and up-to-the minute reports on the antics of the ALP… have suddenly found something better to do.”
What say you, nath? Are you more than the Liberal Shill that others have accused you?
Kakuru @ #1502 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 1:41 pm
Like Elmer Fudd 😀
caf
The hayseed has always been an act. I remember waaaay back 12+ years ago tuning in to some Radio National long interview dealing with the Murray Darling. I did not know who was being interviewed but they came across as erudite and well spoken. I nearly veered of the road such was the WTF!!! when at the end if the discussion the interviewer thanked Barnaby Joyce. The person I listened to spoke fluently and with some erudition. It sounded nothing like the ‘Barnyard Joyce’ as seen on tv etc at the time and certainly now.
NSW teetering on 5-151 on the final day with the Vics pressing hard.
The mighty MCG looking an absolute picture.
poroti
He’s burnished his image so well now that he can’t turn it off.
Roy Orbisonsays:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 1:27 pm
Gee, some people have gone vewwy qwiet on the issue of branch stacking.
________________
Whilst some have just discovered it.
Welcome aboard Roy.
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 1:45 pm
Food for thought for those loud and hysterical about Climate Change actions that must be done.
…’
——————–
I can say without a trace of hysteria and with stone cold certainty that hundreds of millions of people will be displaced from their homes as a result of climate change. Displacement has started. Despite billions already spent on sea walls, bunds, berms and pumps that displacement is accelerating.
BB and others. I would like to place on record that the crested pigeon, Dilbert, has seen fit to join his fellow cresties in the ‘wild’, although he regularly visits, and deigns to sit on my head.
I now have a new rescued baby, called Marjorie, of unknown gender. Also a cresty, very small and being fed every couple of hours with ground seed mush via a hole cut in a finger from a rubber glove. Has little discernible tail, and can sort of fly a few metres, while tending to crash into things.
Has a pathetic, extremely high pitched squeak, which, from previous experience, will take about six weeks to deepen into a melodious ‘whoop’, by which time he/she will have beautiful long tail, and lovely green and blue wing patches.
Dilbert also loved the fan as a perching place, and I expect Marjorie will too.
poroti:
It’s the George W Bush gambit.
The only urgency he understands is the necessity to be re-elected. I doubt that he’s ever been able to see more than a few months ahead.
The hopelessly compromised MSM will never acknowledge that it was Daniel Andrews who instigated the clean-up of the Victorian ALP preselection process.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 1:46 pm
“ Odd isn’t it? The same folks who were providing breathless and up-to-the minute reports on the antics of the ALP… have suddenly found something better to do.”
What say you, nath? Are you more than the Liberal Shill that others have accused you?
_____________________
If I hadn’t of mentioned the revelations at IBAC they might have gone unremarked upon here. Everyone was ignoring them.
“NSW teetering on 5-151”
Based on the season to date, this is a batting masterclass.
Jack Edwards may have luxuriant hair but this does not allow a pass for a FC average of 26 batting at number 5.
If Kurtis Patterson never makes the test team again, he will retire with a test average of 144.
Somyurek is making some allegations about Andrews right now.
Greensborough Growler @ #1504 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 1:45 pm
Many people and many countries are acting. You are not.
You are the problem, not them.
Why does an 18yo girl from Sweden trigger stuffy old white men to such a state of apoplexy?
Here, David Starkey gets stuck in over some obvious truths, which – somehow – make Greta the secular equivalent of a Branch Dividian. David Attenborough gets a spray towards the end as well:
https://youtu.be/KRjOwiPPGU4
Shellbell @ #1517 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 1:58 pm
A bit harsh given they’ve been facing a menacing Vic bowling attack led by Boland and Sutherland…
Naturally !
So, its agreed, nath: you’re a liberal shill. Nothing more.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 2:06 pm
So, its agreed, nath: you’re a liberal shill. Nothing more.
__________
How so? I think it’s more accurate to say that I’m not a Labor shill. That might be why you mistake me for a Liberal shill.
nath, what’s Michael Sukkar up to these days? Asking for a friend.
Andrew Clennel: Labor won’t release climate plan until after the last two sitting weeks of the year.
Good. Follow Ed Husic’s advice and stick to the strategy.
That survey just goes to show that technology by itself is insufficient. There need to be mechanisms that shift group and individual decision making toward choices that come with low/no emissions. Technology has to be adopted, not just invented.
There is a disconnect between intent and behaviour that needs to be addressed, whether that’s by education campaigns, carbon pricing, peer pressure, or whatever. Regardless, our politicians need to be leaders, not followers, and make the case that we all need to step up.
Of course politicians need to win elections to be able to effect change, but they also need to lead discussions and win debates, or they’ll only win power on their opponents’ terms.
Kakuru says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 2:07 pm
nath, what’s Michael Sukkar up to these days? Asking for a friend.
__________
It’s sad you have to reinvent me as a Liberal to satiate your desires. I wish Buce or Steeely was here so you could genuinely get your jollies!
Somyurek is just a disgusting human. Everything wrong with the ALP and political parties in general.
” I wish Buce or Steeely was here so you could genuinely get your jollies!”
I wish Cowhead and TinPot were here too. Until then, I’ll have to put my jollies on ice.
Bill Maher, alleged comedian, had a bizaree ok boomer moment where he conflated (or rather failed to) Greta and one of those American reality tv people to prove rich conservative old white men are great, I think. His writers room needs a refresh, as does the presenters chair.
hazza4257 @ #1529 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 2:10 pm
Major parties will always have these types in their ranks.
But it takes decisive leadership, such as that shown by Daniel Andrews, to weed them out.
(Apologies if somebody posted this while I was out)
Today’s episode of SfM’s disinformation/propaganda campaign:
Boerwar:
I posted the link to the Lord Deben interview this morning @ 9.33 am. if you are interested. I followed it with the link to Keith Pitt’s interview that followed soon after
. If you listen to the Pitt one, please make sure your head is a safe distance from any desk or table.
Lurker @ #1493 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 1:58 pm
Hadn’t of ????
The bogan has outed himself. I thought so! An intellectual giant, no less.
Don’t tell Lizzie.
Taylormade @ #1510 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 1:51 pm
And others are quite happy to look the other way.
A_E
A Franco-US-AU alliance might make sense. I doubt it. The US and France are competitors in the market for hardware. France is not a US client. There are reasons – presumably – why France is not added to the 5 eyes group.
I suspect there’s a lot we have not been told.
Labor are relaxed about AUKUS, but maybe this is pre-election somnolence.
It seems to me all we have now is no subs and a request for favours from the UK.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 2:13 pm
hazza4257 @ #1529 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 2:10 pm
Somyurek is just a disgusting human. Everything wrong with the ALP and political parties in general.
Major parties will always have these types in their ranks.
But it takes decisive leadership, such as that shown by Daniel Andrews, to weed them out.
_________________
More like an opportunistic strike than a principled stand. Andrews knew what he was up to for years and had to keep promoting him.
It’s nauseating to hear run of the mill politicians described in heroic terms, but it seems with Andrews, Rex has succumbed to some unusual charms.
Hadn’t of….
The aural squeezes out the grammatical…gotta like that.
If I hadn’t of mentioned the revelations at IBAC they might have gone unremarked upon here. Everyone was ignoring them.
Absolute crap.
Others discussed it. No one else was monomaniacal about it.
yabba says:
Hadn’t of ????
The bogan has outed himself. I thought so! An intellectual giant, no less.
______________
What a pitiful ‘gotcha’. Resorting to grammar policing to make a personal attack. How cheap and nasty.
If Labor wants to continue being a very small target, it needs to find a slogan to repeat ad nauseam for the next few weeks/months. With the state of the media, adding in the COVID crowding of the news cycle, it’s the only way to cut through. Albo’s uninteresting zingers at pressers are pointless. Pick a phrase and repeat it every time an MP does media.
“Two jobs” worked pretty well. Pick another one. Something about Scotty’s character, working in the issue of integrity in politics. Or make it about climate change and the insincerity of the government.
Andrews was politically astute enough to give the dope Somyurek enough rope and thus not endanger himself to a factional assassination.
Andrews is all about methodically ‘getting things done’.
Pre-selection should be moved out into the public domain and run by the AEC, with nominations and voting open to all in the electorate, and only those of the electorate.
”
Fulvio Sammutsays:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 1:16 pm
When did the divorce happen in all this?
”
Are you asking me or BB? 🙂
Lurker @ #1518 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 2:19 pm
Bullseye! Thanks!
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 2:22 pm
Andrews was politically astute enough to give the dope Somyurek enough rope and thus not endanger himself to a factional assassination.
Andrews is all about methodically ‘getting things done’.
______
Get to work on that biography! Or perhaps even a governmental history. Kennett paid for one once. It might happen again.
Briefly, France wasn’t part of five eyes because they weren’t part of the Anglosphere. They also had an unfortunate habit of taking a somewhat independent line within the overall western alliance. IMO, both of those features actually make them an excellent partner to include in any Australian Alliance framework for this century: not weaknesses, but strengths. Especially if we want to pitch our fundamental strategic framework as anything more than a relic of the anglo colonial past to other emerging powers in our region and hence work them into our overall strategic framework.
‘Bennelong Lurker says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 2:15 pm
Boerwar:
I posted the link to the Lord Deben interview this morning @ 9.33 am. if you are interested. I followed it with the link to Keith Pitt’s interview that followed soon after
. If you listen to the Pitt one, please make sure your head is a safe distance from any desk or table.’
—————–
Thank you. Plus LOL.
Lurker,
There is always this….
https://philosophycriticalthinking.com/2019/07/16/grammar-nazis-the-new-godwins-law/amp/