This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Thank you bakunin. It is an excellent proposition.
P1,
Gee whiz, my mum would be so proud.
The largest emitters in the world like China, India, Russia didn’t turn up at Glasgow and have offered nothing of substance to address the issue. The US commitment could change with a change of Government. Indonesia said they’d stop deforestation if the world paid them $200b to stop. The inadequate list of proffered solutions at Glasgow simply go on and on.
Australian’s targets were/are weak and Government have turned CC in to a means for the Nats to boondoggle the economy again.
But, yeah, I am the problem!!
My view is that hysterical overblown doomsday rhetoric by pseudo activists like yourself convince no one but your small inbred group. You simply want to repeat your mantras of doom ad nauseum. You don’t really want to do anything about CC. But, appearing virtuous and self righteous is all you’ve got to get you through the night.
The news for you is that simply “barking” at the problem doesn’t change hearts and minds, Commercial interests will continue to largely ignore the effects of climate change and countries will simply leverage the issue for selfish national interests.
Well, I for one am happy that a Labor leader has instigated the process of cleaning up Labor pre-selections.
I’d have thought others would be as well, but… *shrugs*
WeWantPaul @ #1531 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 1:42 pm
Maher doesnt like kids much. Back in his day they were seen, hit with sticks and not heard and everyone turned out fine.
I dont mind disagreeing with him. He makes some excellent points and sometimes funny. But it is his disrespect of his audience that turned me off him. He questions their intelligence if they dont laugh at his jokes or laugh when he says something that isnt meant to be a joke. TBH, I find it hard to distinguish too. When his arrogance became obnoxious, I tuned out.
In more exciting news. Season 4 of Yellowstone begins tonight on Stan. What a guilty pleasure that show is.
Gee Bullshitman, NSW is on the verge 0f 90% ,WA's target, yet your Rum Corp mates let the inmates have less freedom than we cave dwellers suffering under our McGowanista regime right now. I mean just look how restrictive some of these Cave rules are 😆 As Major Bloodnok sort of said.”Gad, it”s hell in here”
On a Sunday but NSW had 464 first dose vaccines yesterday.
There are about 75,000 12-15s without a first vaccine.
bakunin @ #1549 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 1:31 pm
I am grammar good having. Bestest ever of world, even. Dispute it, cannot you. Try fail is.
“ In more exciting news. Season 4 of Yellowstone begins tonight on Stan. What a guilty pleasure that show is.”
We are as one. Although I won’t be watching it until after Xmas, as I like to binge.
There is some interesting stuff in that study GG linked. The disparity between how committed people believe themselves to be to mitigating climate change and how committed they believe their governments are is important IMO.
Also, curiously, they use a 0-10 scale in the questions and plot/report the 8-10 rating results. So interpret with some caution.
ar,
I think you have confused “Godwin’s Law” with “Yoda’s Law”.
https://edhusic.medium.com/healing-after-covid-reuniting-a-divided-city-56191816363c
23 hours ago·18 min read
hazza4257 @ #1542 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 2:20 pm
Something.
Do something.
Soon.
Greensborough Growler @ #1552 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 2:40 pm
Yes, indeed you are. As you demonstrate in your next few paragraphs …
You are not only a denier, you can’t bear the fact that others (including me) are acting both personally and politically. It contradicts your beliefs.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 2:47 pm
“ In more exciting news. Season 4 of Yellowstone begins tonight on Stan. What a guilty pleasure that show is.”
We are as one. Although I won’t be watching it until after Xmas, as I like to binge.
______________
They are making a prequel. Set back in the C19 when the first Dutton took the land. Could be epic.
lizzie @ #1330 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 2:48 pm
Husic runs rings around Albo and Marles.
Rings I tells ya.
“ Briefly, France wasn’t part of five eyes because they weren’t part of the Anglosphere. They also had an unfortunate habit of taking a somewhat independent line within the overall western alliance. IMO, both of those features actually make them an excellent partner to include in any Australian Alliance framework for this century: not weaknesses, but strengths. Especially if we want to pitch our fundamental strategic framework as anything more than a relic of the anglo colonial past to other emerging powers in our region and hence work them into our overall strategic framework.”
I would also add that because America competes with France for foreign arms sales, that is also an excellent reason to be partnered to both: it keeps our procurement options open and introduces a competitive element onto any procurement process. Otherwise we’d be captive to America (and to a lesser extent Britain) in terms of price, availability, ongoing resupply, sustainment and IP. Also, having readily available options on the table means that America could not simply say ‘you’ve gotta do [insert military adventure of choice] or else …
This was the point that Keating made in his initial response to AUKUS. It is worth bearing in mind always.
Interestingly, the pro American hawks in the Australian defence establishment cite an potential over reliance on France regarding any nuclear boats deal as a reason why we shouldn’t contract to them. That is certainly a consideration, but it cuts both ways, doesn’t it? If we are beholden to America we are much likely to get involved in some American hot mess. Whereas I am really hard pressed to thing of any potential geopolitical strife this century that would leave us seriously at odds with France such that they may stop refueling our nuclear boats every 10 years …
Guardian
Greensborough Growler @ #1561 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 1:48 pm
Or Trollololo’s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3aecBrTN78
a r,
The argument being made is that if the meaning is clear, then engaging in “gotchas” on grammar falls foul of the proposed revision of Godwin’s.
Hydrogen production at Newcastle makes sense if its used locally – steel making, cement, other basic industries.
Its utterly pointless to ship hydrogen. You lose too much energy.
Does Scomo have a clue?
Will Labor point this out and offer to build a new steelworks?
He used to be alright, but he’s been a real sad sack since COVID-19 struck.
Stephen Colbert, Seth Meyers (particularly “Corrections”) and occasionally the others are far better value.
GG
“I think you have confused “Godwin’s Law” with “Yoda’s Law”.”
Correct you are. Had the same thought I did.
If that isnt the funniest thing on TV…..
P1,
Of all the people that post on this blog, you would be the least likely to inspire a following for any political cause.
Climate Change may indeed be an important issue for Australians and the world to take seriously. However, your proposed solutions that must be implemented last week or we’re all gonna die is risible nonsense. It’s not going to happen.
I’ve just posted a piece from the Guardian which confirms that there is a significant difference between people’s stated beliefs and their reluctance to act meaningfully on the topic. I have posted similar observations about the Australian voters in the past.
Climate Change has been politicised for years in Australia thanks to the moral humbugs like the Greens and yourself. Whatever progress is made in the CC policy area will not arise from your determination to divide the world in to goodies and baddies.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/11/05/save-the-date/comment-page-32/#comment-3742109
Hmmm, I guess there is cumulative emissions from say 1850s till now, total emissions by country, or emissions per head of population.
You do realise that Australia has higher emissions per head of population (the UNFCCC/ IPCC/ COP etc would suggest that is problematic, be it climate crisis/ emergency/ change/ warming – even Maggie T thought of insurance i/c warming/ cooling – etc) than even the Poms or the Yanks, let alone …?
(And may be have a look at https://youtu.be/1FqXTCvDLeo …
Sigh, I’d guess it goes like the abolition of slavery where owners were compensated, same for stranded assets, aka socialising the losses, privatising the profits.)
“ Its utterly pointless to ship hydrogen. You lose too much energy.”
Unless it was … say stored as ammonia … to be reformed just before being used … of course, there are energy inputs all along that chain, so its use would be limited to some very important niches in the overall energy market.
Bill Maher is the Joe Hildebrand of the US – a lefty who understands what most people actually think.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 3:09 pm
They used to say that about Natural Gas until they worked out how to efficiently liquify it. Hydrogen could possibly go that way but there’s some really difficult/interesting problems to overcome.
Defy overwhelming Newscorp political agenda ? – too hard !
Build Melbourne Metro ? – too hard !
Build North-East link ? – too hard !
Remove level crossings ? – too hard !
Ignore anti-lockdown pressure ? – too hard !
Introduce freedoms roadmap to Nat. cabinet ? – too hard !
Repair broken Vic Labor pre-selection process ? – too hard !
Daniel Andrews says hold my beer…
“ They used to say that about Natural Gas until they worked out how to efficiently liquify it. Hydrogen could possibly go that way but there’s some really difficult/interesting problems to overcome.”
The beauty about ammonia storage is that you reduce the pressurisation required by an order of magnitude. The CSIRO have already worked it out. Obviously there are energy inputs (electrolysis to create hydrogen, ammonia conversion, reforming at the other end) but so would any method of liquefying hydrogen. Ammonia storage and transport also reduces the risk factor by an order of magnitude as well.
”
imon Katichsays:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 2:43 pm
WeWantPaul @ #1531 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 1:42 pm
Bill Maher, alleged comedian, had a bizaree ok boomer moment where he conflated (or rather failed to) Greta and one of those American reality tv people to prove rich conservative old white men are great, I think. His writers room needs a refresh, as does the presenters chair.
Maher doesnt like kids much. Back in his day they were seen, hit with sticks and not heard and everyone turned out fine.
I dont mind disagreeing with him. He makes some excellent points and sometimes funny. But it is his disrespect of his audience that turned me off him. He questions their intelligence if they dont laugh at his jokes or laugh when he says something that isnt meant to be a joke. TBH, I find it hard to distinguish too. When his arrogance became obnoxious, I tuned out.
”
SK
Your profile of Maher reminds me of one of the PB posters. 🙂
Bucephalus ,
They ship H2 as NH4, it’s way way safer.
CSIRO have sorted this process out.
”
Greensborough Growlersays:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 1:45 pm
Food for thought for those loud and hysterical about Climate Change actions that must be done. Opinions all over the world seem to show the same commitment to action as long as it does not involve any sacrifices on their behalf. It’s a very important issue right up to the moment they vote. And, then it’s not!
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/07/few-willing-to-change-lifestyle-climate-survey
”
Odd isn’t it?
Another anti-Dan protestor making an idiot of himself.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1457525914539941889
My slogan would be:
“The Liberal Party and Debt! Good Luck!”
Ven,
Why do you say that?
A E
Converting H2 into ammonia and then reforning to H2 loses nearly half the energy in the process.
Ammonia may have niche uses – particularly in chemical production. It might also be useful (directly) as fuel for ships, but that is drbatable since there are other carbon neutral liquid fuels.
Certain persons do not understand just how costly it is to render hydrogen stoarable. Far more costly and energy intensive than LNG – which has a far higher boiling point and as a liquid is many times more dense than LH2.
Greensborough Growler @ #1576 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 3:04 pm
By all means keep consoling your conscience with this nonsense, GG. You clearly need it badly.
Meanwhile, others – including me – will do your heavy lifting for you.
south
CSIRO have a neat process. Its not ready for (real world) production and it still costs a large fraction of the original energy value of the hydroge. That’s thermodynamics at work.
P1,
Always the fatuously facile jibe. It’s all you’ve got, champ!
“ Converting H2 into ammonia and then reforning to H2 loses nearly half the energy in the process.
Ammonia may have niche uses – particularly in chemical production. It might also be useful (directly) as fuel for ships, but that is drbatable since there are other carbon neutral liquid fuels.”
The potential of H2 -> NH4 -> (partially reformed) -> H2 for use in existing turbo fans in long haul aviation is the niche that interests me most at the moment. Range of existing airliners that at be able to use this would be cut to about 80%, but if the early promise bears fruit then the whole long haul civil aviation industry could go carbon neutral – without having to totally reinvent and rebuild the existing fleet of planes and engines – within 10 to 15 years.
Let me channel c@t and link a popular mechanics article:
https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/airlines/a33768744/ammonia-as-jet-fuel/
And hot off the press:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/05/british-firm-to-unveil-technology-for-zero-carbon-emission-flights-at-cop26
Greensborough Growler @ #1592 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 3:42 pm
Your conscience must be a heavy burden, GG. Even I might be unable to help you lift that.
“ P1,
Always the fatuously facile jibe. It’s all you’ve got, champ!”
Truth.
P1,
You really should join the Salvation Army with all that woolly rhetorical speechifying. Can you play a tambourine?
“Converting H2 into ammonia and then reforning to H2 loses nearly half the energy in the process.”
And if the energy is free?
I’ll answer my own question: If energy is (close to) free (or even -ve price), then it comes down to capital costs and capacity factors.
Hydrogen is used to transport energy. Using hydrogen to transport renewable energy doesn’t make sense in areas with access to the grid. Wires are significantly more efficient. However cheap your hydrogen, transporting it over an existing grid is going to be cheaper.
Hydrogen replaces fossil fuels when you can’t connect by wire to renewable energy. In that space it competes with batteries. It wins out when reduced weight and high energy density are priorities. That’s going to be either vehicles (cars, trucks, boats, planes, spaceships) or export/transport over significant distances (e.g. to other countries, or maybe remote regions within Australia).
Since electric vehicles (mainly cars) appear to be significantly more efficient than hydrogen vehicles when taking into account access to the grid, that really only leaves export. We won’t be producing hydrogen for significant consumption as an energy source within Australia (personal, business or industrial use). We’ll be producing it to power ships/planes/spaceships and to export it to countries that struggle to produce renewable energy. I imagine people investing in Australian hydrogen see mainly SEA as the market.
It’ll be interesting to see which way large trucks go.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 2:28 pm
Briefly, France wasn’t part of five eyes because they weren’t part of the Anglosphere. They also had an unfortunate habit of taking a somewhat independent line within the overall western alliance. IMO, both of those features actually make them an excellent partner to include in any Australian Alliance framework for this century: not weaknesses, but strengths. Especially if we want to pitch our fundamental strategic framework as anything more than a relic of the anglo colonial past to other emerging powers in our region and hence work them into our overall strategic framework.
You could well be correct. How would we begin to know?
A E
There’s also carbon neutral synthetic avgas. You don’t have to change a thing on the plane